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Ian Ellis Profile picture
Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones
@iejmedia ⚡︎ @indopacpodcast ⚡︎ ex @goldmansachs ⚡︎ Puncturing the false narratives of adversaries ⚡︎ Subscribe for access to the IEJ database⇵
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Jan 22 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The U.S. military is rapidly expanding its footprint in the Middle East, moving additional fighter aircraft, ships, air defense, and support assets into the region.

- The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is in the Indian Ocean and will soon enter the U.S. 5th Fleet/Central Command AOR
- Three F-15E Strike Eagle squadrons now forward deployed
- Increased KC-135 and C-17 flights supporting the buildup
- Patriot and THAAD air defense systems reportedly en route

Snapshot ahead of Abe’s arrival in theater:Image Tap and hold to load/save in 4K. Track the entire Navy fleet at @iejmedia.

If you’re interested in this stuff, I suggest following @TheIntelFrog, @Schizointel, @LATAMMILMVMTS, @MT_Anderson, @mercoglianos, @vcdgf555, @SA_Defensa, @__CJohnston__, @DefenceGeek, @ByChrisGordon, @sentdefender, @ezegsm3, @EndGameWW3, @steffanwatkins
Jan 4 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
During the darkest hours of 2 and 3 January, the U.S. conducted operation “Absolute Resolve,” a discreet, precise mission to apprehend Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

The special operations extraction force, escorted by a U.S. Navy, Marine, and Air Force protection package, arrived in downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise, successfully took Maduro into custody, and exfiltrated safely.

A comprehensive review of everything we know to date:
w/ @SA_Defensa, @LatAmMilMVMTs, @__CJohnston__Image At 22:46 EST on 2 January 2026,  after  "patiently waiting for the right triggers to be met... the weather broke just enough" and POTUS ordered the U.S. military to move forward with operation “Absolute Resolve.”
Dec 30, 2025 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
Over the past 48 hours, China surrounded Taiwan and executed large-scale live-fire military exercises featuring simulated decapitation strikes and the seizure of key ports.

“It is a noose-style blockade. The operational scope is no longer limited to symbolic, isolated shows of force, but has evolved into a coordinated and interconnected blockade network, practicing the tactics to choke off the island’s vital supply lines,” the official PLA press account stated bluntly.

With a potential Day 3 on the horizon, here’s everything you might have missed:Image For easier viewing, press and hold to load in 4K. Special thanks to @SinoTalk and @songs349.

>>On the morning of 29 December, PLA Eastern Theater Command launched joint military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” and deployed air and naval forces “to approach Taiwan Island in close proximity from different directions”

The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force participated. The stated objectives at the outset included:

- Blockade on key ports and areas
- Seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Joint sea-air combat readiness patrols
- All-dimensional deterrence outside the first island chain (new language)
Dec 8, 2025 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Confirmed today: The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, currently sailing west in the Pacific on a surge deployment, chopped into U.S. 7th Fleet.

Amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) entered the South China Sea and recently stopped in Da Nang.

New INDOPACOM snapshot: Image ABECSG arrives in the region amid heavy Chinese PLA Navy activity:
Dec 6, 2025 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
As of yesterday, Reuters reports that 90+ Chinese ships are operating in the region - down from 100+ earlier this week - surpassing China's "mass naval deployment in December last year" in the "largest maritime show of force to date."

A high-level visual (notes + sources below): Image “The Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific, according to four security officials in the region.

Their accounts were corroborated by intelligence reports from a country in the region, which detailed the deployment. Reuters reviewed the reports on condition it did not name the country.

As of Thursday morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region, coming down from more than 100 at one point earlier this week, the documents showed.

The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, the sources said.”
Nov 15, 2025 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Mapping potential military targets in Venezuela

Yesterday, the U.S. announced Operation Southern Spear to "remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere." With the Ford carrier strike group now on station in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. could launch land strikes at any time.

w/ @SA_Defensa Image "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on potential military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela — and how — have been underway for days...

An administration official said 'a host of options' have been presented to the president." (WaPo)
Nov 10, 2025 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Many moving pieces in SOUTHCOM as the Ford Carrier Strike Group steams toward the Caribbean & POTUS considers striking land targets in Venezuela.

Visualizing U.S. force posture, w/ illustrative Tomahawk Land Attack Missile & Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile strike packages: Image On 24 October, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and embarked carrier air wing were directed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility. Open source flight tracking data indicates its journey across the Atlantic is likely underway. @MT_Anderson
Sep 1, 2025 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
SOUTHCOM Snapshot: Potential strike package with a TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack Missile) loadout via @vcdgf555

POTUS has options. Image The U.S. has deployed a considerable naval and expeditionary force to the Caribbean (U.S. Southern Command/4th Fleet AOR), providing POTUS with a wide range of military options to use against Venezuela or other non-state actors in the region. Catch up on everything that’s happened:
Aug 25, 2025 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Update on U.S. Navy deployments to SOUTHCOM:

- USNI identified the guided-missile cruiser assigned to the task force, USS Lake Erie (CG 70), now operating in U.S. 4th Fleet
- IWOARG is underway en route to SOUTHCOM: USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) + USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) left Norfolk yesterday; USS San Antonio (LPD 17) departed today
- USS Gravely (DDG 107), USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109), and USS Minneapolis-St. Paul (LCS 21) are on station in the Caribbean; USS Sampson (DDG 102) is still south of Panama
- The fast attack sub remains unidentified, but several have been active off the east coast in August

More info and sources below.Image Last update:
Jun 22, 2025 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 U.S. conducts massive precision strikes "obliterating" key Iranian nuclear facilities

- USAF B-2 bombers dropped at least 6x GBU-57 MOP bombs on Fordo
- U.S. Navy guided-missile sub USS Georgia (SSGN 729) fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan

What we know: Image Source: @EricSchmittNYT Image
Jun 8, 2025 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
PLA Navy in 2025: More warships, farther than ever before

• 1,350+ Chinese vessels near Taiwan (+26%)
• Liaoning’s longest deployment ever, deep into WESTPAC
• First circumnavigation of Australia
• 20+ joint combat readiness patrols

These deployments demonstrate Beijing's blue water ambitions and the capability to project power outside the first and second island chains, sending a clear message to not only the U.S. and Taiwan but also Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.Image The Chinese PLA has deployed four big deck warships - two aircraft carriers and two amphibious assault ships - over the last month.

The U.S. Navy is also active in the region:
May 2, 2025 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 China dispatched 546* PLA aircraft around Taiwan in April, the highest monthly total of 2025 & most since August

Nearly 1,800 PLA aircraft have been detected operating nearby year-to-date (+48% yoy), with 1,200+ crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ (+184%)

New heatmap with @OSINTNW: Image Year-to-date, PLA incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2025 continue to run significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. Image
Apr 18, 2025 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
American strategic bomber fleet out in full force 🇺🇸

• 4x USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Japan in support of first Bomber Task Force mission, marking a historic visit

• 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers forward deployed to Diego Garcia continue strike ops against the Houthi Image More info on the B-2 bomber deployment:
Apr 12, 2025 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New @jointstaffpa map shows the flight paths of Chinese (red) + Russian (yellow) military aircraft operating near Japan, Taiwan, + South Korea in the past year.

Japan scrambled 704 times in response, with two-thirds (464) due to Chinese aircraft. 3x as many PLA drones detected. Image 704 scrambles in FY2024 (1 April to 31 March) is a modest 5% (+35) increase over the prior period. Image
Apr 3, 2025 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below): Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Apr 1, 2025 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
BREAKING: China launches joint military exercises around Taiwan, practicing a “blockade on key areas”

On 1 April, PLA Eastern Theater Command deployed Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Forces to “close in on Taiwan from multiple directions.”

- Sea-air combat readiness patrols
- Joint seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Assault on maritime & ground targets
- Blockade on key areas & sea areas

“It is a stern warning & forceful deterrence against ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces.”

The PLA released a theme poster called “Closing In: Sinister Moves of Taiwan Separatists Courting Disaster Upon Themselves.” The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command began conducting joint military exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, 1 April 2025, according to an announcement by Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the theater command. Image
Image
Image
Mar 30, 2025 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Six USAF B-2 Spirit stealth bombers — 1/3 of America’s fleet — forward deployed to Diego Garcia over the last week 🇺🇸

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) continues strike operations against the Houthi. Carl Vinson CSG, en route to the Middle East, is 1-2 weeks out. Image A comprehensive review of U.S. strike operations against the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen, which began on 15 March and continued every day since:
Mar 28, 2025 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 Unclassified Report — Inside America’s 14-day ongoing strike campaign against the Houthi

At least 158 precision air and naval strikes targeting Houthi infrastructure & leadership.

My most detailed brief ever and an unprecedented look at U.S. strike operations in Yemen: Image On Saturday, 15 March 2025, just before 11:44 EST, U.S. SECDEF confirmed with U.S. Central Command: “We are a go for mission launch,” initiating a series of precision strikes against 30+ Iranian-backed Houthi targets across Yemen, including a “target terrorist @ his known location.”
Mar 24, 2025 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Notable developments in the Indo-Pacific last week:

- China conducted back-to-back joint combat patrols 24nm from Taiwan on the same day for the first time
- 59 PLA aircraft detected around Taiwan + 43 entered its ADIZ on Monday, largest single-day surge of 2025 + highest in 5 months
- Recent PLA military drills in the Taiwan Strait, Western Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea, + Yellow/Bohai Sea
- New Shuiqiao landing barges carrying out docking trials with civil-military RO-RO ferries
- Elevated PLA drone activity, including WZ-10 + GJ-2

Taiwan recently wrapped up a week of “Rapid Response Exercises,” practicing tactical maneuvers, key asset protection, concealment, and cover operations to enhance readiness and response capabilities. MND said: “ROC Armed Forces closely monitor maritime and aerial activities, conducting joint operations to track and respond to PLA incursions.”

China’s foreign ministry stated: “China’s relevant military operation is necessary, lawful and legitimate in order to defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity. It’s a firm response to external forces who are hellbent on abetting and aiding ‘Taiwan independence,’ and a warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces’ unconscionable acts... Those who attempt to use Taiwan to contain China will get burned for playing with fire.”

More info and sources below:Image Review of Chinese PLA military activity 2025 year-to-date:
Mar 21, 2025 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
“...this newest logistics capability is further evidence of the PLA’s efforts to meet Chairman Xi Jinping’s reported mandate to have military capabilities necessary to conduct a large-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027.” @tshugart3 @ChinaMaritime Image “The new Shuiqiao LPUs offer the PLA a critical capability and fulfill a long-sought requirement to reliably deliver a large volume of second echelon forces into amphibious landing areas. In the context of other developments that include improvements to amphibious base infrastructure, the increased use of a diverse array of civilian vessels to support amphibious operations, and other PLA capability developments, the Shuiqiao LPUs are another example of the PLA significantly increasing capabilities to conduct a large-scale cross-strait operation—if they are ordered to do so—in coming years.”
Mar 18, 2025 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Many rumors circulating about U.S. aircraft carriers.

Here’s an update on all 11 🇺🇸

• 3x deployed: Truman in Red Sea, Vinson in WESTPAC, Washington forward in Japan
• 4x active/available: Ford completing COMPTUEX in the Atlantic, Lincoln & Roosevelt in San Diego, Nimitz in Bremerton
• 1x sea trials: Bush in the Atlantic
• 3x maintenance: Reagan in Puget Sound, Ike in Norfolk, Stennis in Newport News

American carriers frequently conduct routine operations off the coast of the U.S. - just because one leaves port does not mean it’s on deployment.

Ford is next up on the east coast but must first complete COMPTUEX training, & Nimitz has been conducting pre-deployment training off the west coast.

Senior U.S. officials @__CJohnston__ spoke with expect a deployment extension for Truman in CENTCOM. There is precedent to move a CSG from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, so Vinson could be sent in that direction if need be. In a surge scenario, Roosevelt & Lincoln are also available.

At this time, the U.S. Navy has not announced any new deployments. More info & sources below.Image The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (HSTCSG) is in the Red Sea currently conducting its 3rd day of strike operations against the Iranian-backed Houthi in Yemen.