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Ian Ellis Profile picture
Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones
Founder ✈︎ @iejmedia ⚡︎ Producer @indopacpodcast ⚡︎ Puncturing false narratives of adversaries ⚡︎ ex @goldmansachs ⚡︎ News that matters ↯
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Jul 20 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 A fortnight of far-reaching naval activity in the Indo-Pacific

• 18+ Chinese & Russian Navy ships conducted joint exercises & patrols
• Shandong carrier group finished a 10-day drill east of Taiwan
• PLA practicing amphibious ops w/ temp pier & civilian ferry

New map + 🧵 Image It’s been a busy & eventful month:
Jul 11 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Current situation:

- 4 Chinese warships crossed into the U.S. EEZ near Alaska
- PLA & Russian Navies conducting joint drills in WESTPAC
- Record-breaking military activity around Taiwan
- Surging ships into the South China Sea
- Shandong carrier group underway

A lot going on 🧵 Image USCG: The crew of U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball (WMSL 756) detected 3 Chinese vessels ~124 miles north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, & an HC-130J aircrew from U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak detected an additional vessel ~84 miles north of the Amukta Pass.

All four of the People’s Republic of China vessels were transiting in international waters but still inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from the U.S. shoreline.Image
Jul 11 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 New record: Largest Chinese single-day violation of Taiwan’s air defense zone (ADIZ) ever recorded

66 PLA aircraft were detected around the island — 56 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 33 nautical miles

Quick thread tracking elevated PLA military activity: Image A lot of moving pieces:
Jul 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 Breaking: China moves the Shandong carrier strike group into the Western Pacific

Japan’s defense ministry confirmed the aircraft carrier, escorted by some of China’s newest & most advanced warships, was 500km SE of Okinawa, Japan, 9 July

1st transit east of Taiwan in 2024 🧵 Image Thread tracking increased & interesting PLA military activity in the Indo-Pacific:
Jul 8 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
🚨 China has moved significant firepower & naval assets into the South & East China Seas

For the first time, Beijing conducted drills within the Philippines EEZ & deployed the Shandong carrier group to nearby waters

Premier surface combatants & amphibious warships also underway Image Thread tracking increased Chinese PLA military activity during June:
Jun 25 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
🚨For 5 days in a row, 4 Chinese Coast Guard ships have repeatedly entered the 12-mile territorial limit around Japan’s Senkaku islands

CCG “drove away & expelled” Japanese patrol boats & have been spotted sailing within Japan’s EEZ for 186 days straight, the longest record ever Image While it doesn’t get as much mainstream media attention, China employs many of the same gray zone tactics around the Senkakus that they do in the Taiwan Strait & South China Sea. Worth repeating what I said below — Beijing is all over Taiwan, the Philippines, & Japan.
Jun 19 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
🚨 Ayungin Attack — Shocking new details & video shows China’s “brutal assault” on the Philippines

- Chinese Coast Guard deployed tear gas
- “In a brazen act of aggression, Filipino troops valiantly fought back & defended their position”
- CCG employed physical attacks, bladed weapons, blaring sirens, & blinding strobe lights
- Threatened Philippine soldiers with axes, knives, & bolos, & began hurling rocks & other objects
- “In an act of piracy, CCG personnel proceeded to loot supplies & pilfer equipment”
- Violently attached ropes to tow Philippine boats & slashed RHIBs, rendering them inoperable

Quick thread with the latest: Source + thread with more detail on the attack:
Jun 18 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
New: Pentagon on China’s “very concerning” attack @ Ayungin Shoal in Philippine territory

“This kind of behavior is provocative. It’s reckless. It’s unnecessary. & it could lead to something bigger & more violent”

A significant escalation — everything you need to know 👇

• Chinese Coast Guard & Maritime Militia employed the “dangerous & deliberate use of water cannons, ramming, & blocking”
• 8 Filipinos injured, including one who lost a thumb, near Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal
• Collided, boarded, searched, & seized multiple Philippine boats, & confiscated firearms
• Disrupted the mission & prevented resupply
• Established & enforcing a de facto blockade
• Beijing wasted no time weaponizing a recently enacted law that allows the CCG to detain “trespassers” by force & without trial, anywhere within its vast claims across the SCS
• 3rd incident since March where Philippine personnel have been injured by Chinese forces
• Will Beijing try to normalize this hostile behavior?

🎯 “China will always claim to be the victim of their own aggression. They will blame this on the Filipinos.” @Jkylebass

Thread with sources & more info What happened:
Jun 16 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Hellscape — new video of ultra long range drone deployed in the Indo-Pacific 👀

Vanilla has world record max endurance of 10 days & serves as a C2 “mothership” with air-launched swarm capabilities to deploy 40 micro-drones. They’re low-cost, payload agnostic, force multipliers. More on hellscape:
Jun 12 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The U.S. Navy operates ~100 ships around the world every day, NATO is drilling with 50+ warships, & massive exercises are underway & planned in Asia.

Russia sent a frigate, sub, oiler, & tug to the Caribbean, & doesn’t have a single carrier operational. “We are not concerned. Russia’s deployments are part of routine naval activity... which pose no direct threat to the U.S.”

The transit imposes a “significant cost on the Russian Navy, which faces challenges in maintaining readiness & conducting deployments with an aging fleet.”

A few notes & context:Image The U.S. anticipates “heightened naval & air activity near the U.S.” this summer. “These actions will culminate in a global Russian naval exercise this fall. Russia will temporarily send combat naval vessels to the Caribbean region, & these ships will likely conduct port calls in Cuba & possibly Venezuela.”
Jun 11 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
🔥 U.S. military plans “Hellscape” to deter China from attacking Taiwan: @joshrogin

“The idea is that as soon as China’s invasion fleet begins moving across the 100-mile waterway, the U.S. military would deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface ships & aerial drones to flood the area & give Taiwanese, U.S. & partner forces time to mount a full response.”

Full article is worth the read — thread with a few quotes:Image “They want to offer the world a short, sharp war so that it is a fait accompli before the world can get their act together. My job is to ensure that between now & 2027 & beyond, the U.S. military & the allies are capable of prevailing.”

Link to entire column:
Jun 7 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
A series of unusual North Korean provocations 🧵

—GPS jamming attacks for 5 days in a row
—Salvo launch of 18x missiles in “show of force”
—Sent nearly 1,000 balloons filled with trash & waste toward Seoul
—Installing mines, reinforcing fences, & moving heavy equipment in DMZ Image Map with strategic military locations for reference: Image
Jun 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Air Force Global Strike Command launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to “showcase the readiness of U.S. nuclear forces” 👀

I haven’t seen this video narrated by U.S. Space Force Senior Airman Kadielle Shaw shared much — but it’s very well done: “This test launch is part of routine and periodic activities intended to demonstrate that the U.S. nuclear deterrent is safe, secure, reliable and effective to deter 21st century threats and reassure our allies. Such tests have occurred over 300 times before, and this test is not the result of current world events.”
Jun 1 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Another revealing exchange between U.S. & Chinese defense officials at #SLD24

U.S. SECDEF Lloyd Austin received a round of applause after responding to a PLA Colonel, who said NATO expansion led to the war in Ukraine.

“I respectfully disagree with your point that the expansion of NATO caused the Ukraine crisis... 👏

The Ukraine crisis obviously was caused because Mr. Putin made a decision to unlawfully invade his neighbor.”

Thread with clips & quotes: On day one, Admiral Paparo also pushed back on statements made by the former Chinese ambassador to the U.S. (that ended with smiles & a handshake)
May 31 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Admiral Paparo’s reaction after going back & forth with the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. at #SLD24 🧵

“You’re speaking as if all the panelists here want to fight. We are the life insurance policy against fighting. We have children in uniform. And that is the very last thing that we do.

Deterrence is our first duty. The assumption somehow that all of us want to fight, & you are the lone human being on this panel that wants peace — if that is the point you're making, my dear friend, that is not the case.”

Thread with a few clips & quotes: Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, was part of a panel with Cui Tiankai, who was the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

“We’re sitting on a panel called deterrence & reassurance. And the very first statement that we made was that deterrence is our first duty... we want peace every bit as much as you do.”
May 31 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Major rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers over the next few months:

- USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) departed Japan for the final time & on patrol in the Western Pacific
- USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) carrier strike group (CSG) left Singapore & now operating in the South China Sea
- The Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) CSG is underway in the Red Sea, & will eventually be relieved by USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
- USS George Washington (CVN 73) arrived in Argentina & will circumnavigate South America to link up with Reagan in CA before heading to the Indo-Pacific
- USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) is underway conducting exercises off the West Coast in preparation for an upcoming Pacific deployment
- USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) was in Los Angeles for Fleet Week, & will participate in the RIMPAC exercises held near Hawaii from 26 June to 2 AugustImage Thread with more info on scheduled deployments & rotations:
May 30 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
China’s recent military exercises surrounding Taiwan “looked like a rehearsal” for an invasion, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told Nikkei on Wednesday.

“We watched it. We took note. We learned from it. And they helped us prepare for the future.” “The U.S. government charges me with being ready today, tomorrow, next month and next year, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act.”
May 28 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
🚨 Japan intercepts Chinese WL-10 recon/attack/EW drone for the first time

On 27 May, Japanese fighters monitored the UAV over the East China Sea. Flight path indicates ISR along the Okinawa prefecture & southwest islands, home to PAC-3 missile systems, & toward Kadena Air Base. Image Source + more info:
May 27 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
China’s latest round of military exercises encircling Taiwan was significant

- Largest fleet of PLA Navy & Coast Guard integrate & practice a blockade
- Further normalization & targeted pressure on frontline islands
- Highly publicized & propagandized

Wrapping up my coverage 🧵 Image If you enjoyed my coverage & would like to support my work — your email goes a long way. Will be launching before the end of the month: Image
May 24 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 JOINT SWORD DAY 1 BRIEF

- China launched a simulated blockade around Taiwan
- 49 PLA aircraft detected & 35 entered its ADIZ, the largest violation of 2024
- Encircled by 19 PLAN warships & 16 Coast Guard vessels
- Taiwan deployed HF-3 missiles

Everything you need to know: Image Yesterday, China launched exercise Joint Sword 2024A, encircling Taiwan in what it called a "strong punishment" following the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te.

Thread tracking breaking news:
May 23 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
🚨 Let the games begin — China launches exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions

Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates: Image The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched joint military exercise "JOINT SWORD 2024A" — surrounding Taiwan on 23 May.

This news follows the largest ADIZ violation of the year last week: