🚨 China quietly carried out a sweeping military operation this week in the Western Pacific — its largest naval deployment in decades.

Taiwan defense officials called the unannounced exercise staggering, unprecedented, and extremely rare.

Here’s everything you need to know 🧵 Earlier this week, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a massive joint military exercise around the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific, targeting the entire first island chain.

Taiwan’s military spokesperson said the scale of the naval deployment was the largest since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. In a notable first, Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands participated together in coordination.

Admiral Paparo: “I remain confident that we’d prevail in a conflict with the PRC over Taiwan...

And, in fact, the PRC also doubts their own ability to prevail in such a conflict...

That doesn’t negate that if they decided there would have to be a war of necessity, they’re going at tremendous risk to themselves...

Our concern is that the margin — expressed in risk of succeeding, lost lives, lost capability, lost money, and lost time — is eroding.” Adm. Paparo, Commander of @INDOPACOM, speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, says the U.S. needs to double down on:

A lot going on in the Indo-Pacific — a few things you may have missed last week 🧵

- Chinese balloons are back around Taiwan
- China + Russia conduct 9th joint strategic aerial patrol
- Largest swarm of Chinese ships ever near Philippines’ Thitu island
- Taiwan intercepts China Coast Guard ships in Kinmen’s restricted waters
- Three PRC research vessels enter the Philippines’ EEZ
- CCG carries out intrusive patrols in Malaysia’s EEZ
- Taiwan’s President lands in Hawaii, irking Beijing
- U.S. approves $320 million arms sale to Taiwan

China could launch military drills, or exercise “Joint Sword C,” in response. More info + sources below. Chinese balloons are back—

After a 7+ month hiatus, Taiwan detected at least 6 Chinese balloons entering its air defense ID zone (ADIZ) over the last week.

From December 2023 to April 2024, China sent an unprecedented 102 balloons over and around the island.

New details from DOD — U.S. Navy repels multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks:

- Destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) & USS Spruance (DDG 111), part of the Lincoln CSG, were attacked while transiting the BAM on 11 Nov
- Included at least 8x one-way attack drones, 5x anti-ship ballistic missiles, & 3x anti-ship cruise missiles
- Despite reports, aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) (recently in the Gulf of Aden) was not targeted
- Successfully engaged & defeated with no injuries or damage

“CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense & will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.” —Pentagon Press Sec “On November 11th, U.S. Central Command forces successfully repelled multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks during a transit of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. During the transit, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Stockdale and USS Spruance were attacked by at least eight one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles, which were successfully engaged and defeated.

The vessels were not damaged. No personnel were hurt. Again, CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense, and as I highlighted earlier, will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.”

Updated chart visualizing Chinese PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone (ADIZ) this year.

The record-breaking surge began in May following President Lai’s inauguration. By August, ADIZ incursions had already surpassed 2023 totals — with the tally now 1,000+ higher. First iteration:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1832952083378479444

The U.S. Marine Corps’ XQ-58A Valkyrie, a highly autonomous, long-range, low-cost tactical unmanned platform, completed its 4th test flight & “effectively demonstrated its capabilities as a forward deployed sensing platform — providing critical threat targeting data to USMC 5th-generation aircraft to rapidly close advanced kill chains.” Multi-domain test event “Emerald Flag” provides opportunity for XQ-58A to demonstrate tactical data link integration (Source: USMC)

🚨 JOINT SWORD 2024B BRIEF + MAP

- China launched a simulated blockade around Taiwan
- Deployed a fleet of 34 PLAN + CCG ships
- Carrier group practiced securing a key choke point
- 153 PLA aircraft detected, with 111 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ—the most ever recorded in a single day On 14 October, China’s PLA Eastern Theater Command conducted exercise “Joint Sword 2024B,” launching a major 13-hour joint military drill & encircling Taiwan from the north, south, east, & west

The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Force practiced “sea-air combat readiness patrols, a blockade on key ports & areas, assault on maritime & ground targets, & joint seizure of comprehensive superiority”

Map — Key Iranian infrastructure, military bases, oil platforms, & nuclear sites that Israel could target in a retaliatory strike. Also:

- U.S. Gen. Kurilla in Tel Aviv
- Iranian Navy gets underway
- More countries close airspace
- Iran issues NOTAMs
- “All options on the table” This is an add-on to my map & thread from yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1842361568119460325

🚨 Update — U.S. force posture as Israel begins ground operation in Lebanon:

- Deploying an “additional few thousand” U.S. troops
- Sending more F-15E, F-16, F-22, & A-10 squadrons
- ABE CSG & WASP ARG remaining on station
- Truman CSG in the Atlantic en route
+ Increased readiness of additional U.S. forces to deploy

“DOD has taken steps to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression & reduce the risk of a broader regional war.”


Source: Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh Holds an Off-Camera Press Briefing, 30 September 2024

CNO released the “Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy” & unveiled “Project 33”

Focuses on two strategic ends: 1) Readiness for the possibility of war with China by 2027, & 2) Enhancing long-term advantage

A few highlights from the 30-page doc: “Our adversaries have designed their militaries to overcome our traditional sources of strength. We must move rapidly to stay ahead and continuously create warfighting advantages... We will put more players on the field—platforms that are ready with the right capabilities, weapons and sustainment, and people who are ready with the right skills, tools, training, and mindset.” @USNavyCNO

Last night, on primetime TV, America witnessed “the most dangerous conflict no one is talking about”

60 Minutes experienced (& documented) China’s “just short of war” tactics firsthand when their boat was intentionally rammed in the SCS

A must watch — featuring @GordianKnotRay! If you’re looking for someone who talks about the conflict no one is talking about, @GordianKnotRay is a must follow.

https://twitter.com/gordianknotray/status/1835497164086391028

Current situation:

- China & Russia launched large-scale military drills
- Unprecedented PLA air & naval activity around Taiwan
- PLA spy plane entered Japanese airspace (1st time since WW2)
- Philippines tracks 203 Chinese ships in the South China Sea (most ever recorded) 🧵 China & Russia began a series of joint exercises & patrols last week:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1835106575293280681

Last week, Russia launched exercise “Ocean 2024,” its largest naval drill of the post-Soviet era, alongside China in the Pacific
 
• 400+ warships, subs, & support vessels
• 120 aircraft & 125 UAVs
• 90,000+ troops
+ PLA Navy 4-ship surface action group & 15 aircraft In addition to “Ocean 2024,” Russia is participating in China’s “Northern/Interaction-2024” exercise & both countries will conduct their 5th joint maritime patrol (the 2nd this year).

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1834033965227016588

Big U.S. Navy carrier news 🇺🇸

- Roosevelt & Lincoln carrier strike groups ordered to remain in the Middle East
- Eisenhower, Truman, & Ford sailed together in a rare multi-carrier formation
- Washington underway en route to the Indo-Pacific
- Truman deploying “later this year” Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of Defense “ordered the presence of two Carrier Strike Groups to remain in the region.”

The arrival of @CVN_72 in U.S. Central Command represents the Navy’s first F-35C deployment to the Middle East.

Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314, embarked on ABE, is the only operationally capable U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Squadron in the fleet.

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1827851121781514256

The F-35C Joint Strike Fighters are the world's only 5th-generation international carrier-based aircraft and a “first-day-of-the-war fighter with the capability to dominate adversaries in the air or on the surface while surviving the most formidable threat environments.”

Incredible pics — 3x U.S. Navy aircraft carriers sail in multi-carrier formation & conduct an ordinance transfer in the Atlantic Ocean 👀

Not something you see every day. @TheCVN69 @USSHARRYSTRUMAN @CVN78_GRFord The Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) transits the Atlantic Ocean with the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) during an ordinance transfer, Aug. 24.

The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), and the Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) are underway in the Atlantic Ocean for an ordnance transfer between the three ships and the Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship USNS William McLean (T-AKE 12). (Source: DVIDS)

🚨 Special report — Why the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is the most capable in the fleet

Equipped with F-35C stealth fighters, next-gen technology, & state-of-the-art weaponry, @CVN_72 brings unrivaled capability & capacity to the Middle East.

What we (publicly) know: On 11 July, @CVN_72 departed San Diego for a scheduled, routine Indo-Pacific deployment. Less than a month later, on 2 August, the schedule changed when the Secretary of Defense ordered the CSG to move from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East and, on 11 August, to accelerate its transit. Ten days later, the group arrived in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR).

But ABE is not just another CSG. It’s the most advanced, lethal, and capable in the fleet — the pinnacle of power projection — providing a combat-ready force to “protect and defend the collective maritime interests of the U.S. and its global allies and partners.”

The CSG blends and interoperates high, medium, and low-end naval and joint capabilities in a way that’s never been done before, both for offensive and defensive purposes, integrating seamlessly across military platforms, including manned and unmanned systems, conventional and unconventional, surface and subsurface, overt and covert, and more.

Gunboat diplomacy — 1-month change in U.S. force posture in the Med + Middle East (then/now)

1x carrier strike group ➡️ 2x CSG
22x warships deployed ➡️ 30x
1x amphibious ready group ↔️ 1x
7x destroyers ➡️ 12x

+ USAF F-22 Squadron
+ USMC F-35C Squadron
+ SSGN Guided-missile sub





Comparing U.S. force posture since October 2023:

U.S. naval assets in the Middle East — new map

• ~30% of U.S. Navy fleet en route or in theater
• Guided-missile sub USS Georgia left Crete
• ABE CSG days away

🚨 Iranian attack against Israel delayed to allow time for a ceasefire deal & will take place at a later date (NYT) U.S. force posture today in the Middle East is similar to the surge following the October 2023 attack:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1823162593751539911

South China Sea updates:

• 🇵🇭🇨🇳 agree on “provisional arrangement” to de-escalate @ Second Thomas Shoal (21 July)
• 🇵🇭 peaceful resupply mission @ STS + deal with 🇨🇳 holds (27 July)
• 🇺🇸 allocates “unprecedented” $500 million for 🇵🇭 (27 July)
• 🇵🇭 says 🇨🇳 “mischaracterized” the deal (28 July)
• 🇨🇳 launches large-scale military drills (31 July)
• 🇵🇭🇺🇸 hold a joint maritime patrol (31 July)
• 🇵🇭🇯🇵 1st ever bilateral exercise (2 Aug)
• 🇻🇳 ships arrive in 🇵🇭 Manila Bay (5 Aug)
• 🇨🇳 sends dual drones near 🇻🇳 territory (2 + 7 Aug)
• 🇵🇭🇺🇸🇦🇺🇨🇦 1st Maritime Cooperative Activity (7 + 8 Aug)
• 🇨🇳 combat patrol tests “strike capabilities” (7 Aug)
• 🇨🇳 drops flares in front of 🇵🇭 aircraft (8 Aug)
• 🇵🇭🇻🇳 1st bilateral coast guard ex (9 Aug)

The Philippines slammed China’s “dangerous + provocative actions” after 2x PLA fighter aircraft dropped flares in the path of a Filipino plane last week near Scarborough Shoal.

More info below. Video via @taiwanplusnews. “The Armed Forces of the Philippines strongly condemns the dangerous and provocative actions of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) that endangered the lives of our personnel undertaking maritime security operations recently within Philippine maritime zones.

On 8 August 2024, a Philippine Air Force (PAF) NC-212i aircraft was conducting a routine maritime patrol over Bajo de Masinloc when two aircraft from the PLAAF executed a dangerous maneuver at around 9:00AM and dropped flares in the path of our NC-212i.

The incident posed a threat to Philippine Air Force aircraft and its crew, interfered with lawful flight operations in airspace within Philippine sovereignty and jurisdiction, and contravened international law and regulations governing safety of aviation.”

🚨 New — 2x additional guided-missile destroyers assigned to the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group (CSG)

Amid orders from U.S. SECDEF to surge ships toward the Middle East, ABE CSG is now comprised of 5x destroyers from DESRON 21.

ETA to Middle East TBD. More info below. As of 9 August via DVIDS: CSG-3 consists of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 9, and Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 21, which includes Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS O’Kane (DDG 77), USS Stockdale (DDG 106), USS Spruance (DDG 111), USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) and USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. (DDG 121).