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Ian Ellis Profile picture
Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones
Founder ✈︎ IEJ Media ⚡︎ I write about & try to make sense of what matters most ⚡︎ Puncturing false narratives of adversaries ⚡︎ ex @goldmansachs ⚡︎ Newsletter ⇩
Luca M. Sergio Profile picture M Spoke Profile picture 2 subscribed
Apr 24 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
“Xi’s most critical choices reflect a march to war,” writes RADM (ret) Studeman.

“He may conclude he has everything to gain & nothing to lose by waiting. Xi’s absolute prioritization of security over the economy is the most telling of all war preparation indicators.” Must-read👇 Image “A storm from Beijing is heading to Taiwan...

Although hopes were high that the Russo-Ukrainian War might deter Xi from folly over Taiwan, nothing in his behavior, speech, or actions so far suggests he is learning anything other than how to better prepare to subjugate Taiwan.”
Apr 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
TikTok is a “tool to exploit all of the things that are keeping us busy as a country right now—racial divide, political divide.

They’re exploiting every freedom that we enjoy as a democracy. It’s ingenious. It’s brilliant. It needs to be banned.”

Eye-opening @IndoPacPodcast 🧵 Retired Lt. Gen. Lori Reynolds, former Commander of Marine Cyber Force to @GordianKnotRay:

“This idea that it’s a violation of free speech is exactly the conversation they want us to have around TikTok. It feeds right into their strategy. So we just have to be smarter than them.”
Apr 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What scares a retired Lt. General & Commander of Marine Cyber Force?

- China’s embedded “into as much of America’s critical infrastructure” as possible
- New, persistent approach to maintain access
- Significant operational capabilities
- Waiting for the opportune time

Quick 🧵 “The wake up call on this one is that we see now China is shifting from this intellectual property grab to a more persistent approach. Meaning embed yourself into as much of America's critical infrastructure as you can. And by critical infrastructure, we're talking water, energy, power, telecommunications.

Embed yourself. Keep checking to make sure that the accesses that you stole are still good. So you might see some repeat kind of visits to some of these infrastructures. And that signals to us that they are waiting to use these capabilities and these cyber accesses at a more opportune time.

Maybe as they are thinking about making a move on Taiwan. Maybe when the U.S. wants to do something in support of Israel. So it becomes more of an operational capability for them—if they're successful in maintaining these kind of clandestine accesses.

🚨 And that's what's changed. And that's what should scare us a little bit.”
Apr 20 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
As the dust settles, here’s what we know about Israel’s strike on Iran 🧵

- Launched drones & fired missiles from fighter aircraft outside of Iran
- Targeted a military base & radar site near Isfahan
- “Hit what they intended to strike”
- No U.S. involvement

New map & report: Image Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran early Friday morning local time, in what’s being characterized as a “limited response,” targeting a military air base near Isfahan.

The aerial attack involved drones & firing missiles from fighter aircraft (outside of Iran). Image
Apr 10 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
New from @Noahpinion—Asia is a tinderbox

“WW3 will actually begin if & when the U.S. & China go to war. Almost everyone thinks this would happen if & when China attacks Taiwan, but in fact there are several other flashpoints that are just as scary & which many people seem to be overlooking.” 🧵Image Definitely worth the read. Here are a few excerpts:

“So even as Europe and China become more deeply enmeshed in a proxy war, there are multiple flashpoints in Asia that could blossom into World War 3 any day now. Asia is an absolute tinderbox right now.”
Apr 8 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
South China Sea situation

- China’s militarization, expansion & violence is destabilizing an entire region
- Ships harass, swarm, water cannon & laser neighbors
- PLA joint patrols & military drills

New map with @GordianKnotRay & SeaLight shining light on Chinese provocations🧵 Image China continues to execute “belligerent, dangerous, & aggressive activity” in the South China Sea, U.S. Navy Adm. Aquilino told Congress.

“Those are not based on legality. The 2016 tribunal ruled that the PRC has no legal claim—yet they continue to drive a perception & articulate that it is Chinese sovereign territory.

It is not.”
Apr 6 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Current situation:

- World awaits imminent Iranian response to Israeli strike on embassy in Syria; forces on max readiness
- Significant show of force against China as 🇦🇺🇯🇵🇵🇭🇺🇸 launch first naval drills
- Escalation risk remains high

A few things you may have missed last week🧵 Image The U.S., Japan, Australia & the Philippines will hold their first joint naval exercises, including anti-submarine warfare training, in a show of force Sunday in the South China Sea where Beijing’s aggressive actions to assert its territorial claims have caused alarm. (AP)
Apr 6 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Big news: 🇦🇺🇯🇵🇵🇭🇺🇸 launch first military exercises together in the South China Sea tomorrow in major show of force against China

To add to @Aaron_MatthewIL’s list—U.S. naval assets underway in the AOR:

• 5-ship Roosevelt carrier strike group (Philippines)
• America amphibious ready group; 31st MEU embarked (Philippine Sea)
• 4-5 destroyers from DESRON 15 (SCS/WESTPAC)
• A couple of littoral combat ships
• Command & control ship USS Blue Ridge
• Expeditionary sea base USS Miguel Keith Last location of the Theodore Roosevelt CSG:
Mar 28 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Taiwanese officials say that China has stepped up activities in the Taiwan Strait—with multiple agencies coming together to form a “joint patrol fleet.”

Taiwan’s coast guard drove out 9 Chinese boats that crossed the median line over 2 days this week.
The Fujian Maritime Safety Administration, the Eastern Navigation Service Center of the National Maritime Safety Administration, & the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration conducted a joint patrol activity in the waters of the Taiwan Straits on Wednesday. Image
Mar 25 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Breaking | Chinese Ministry of State Security hackers indicted for targeting U.S. companies & critics during 14-year(!) espionage campaign

“PRC state-sponsored malicious cyber actors continue to be one of the greatest & most persistent threats to U.S. national security.” Image Indictment unsealed ~30 mins ago:

“Charging 7 nationals of the PRC with conspiracy to commit computer intrusions & conspiracy to commit wire fraud for their involvement in a PRC-based hacking group that spent approximately 14 years targeting U.S. & foreign critics, businesses & political officials in furtherance of the PRC’s economic espionage & foreign intelligence objectives.”
Mar 24 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
“The security environment is the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” Adm. Aquilino warned last week.

“We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2.”

A few more clips, quotes, & mic-dropping moments from his final public appearance as Commander, U.S. INDOPACOM 👇 The Philippines is a “really critical hot spot right now that could end up in a bad place… I’m concerned where it could go.”
Mar 9 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
🚨Houthis conduct largest & most complex attack to date—sending 28 one-way attack drones toward U.S. & coalition ships.

All 28 drones were shot down with no injuries or damage. Thread with live updates: Image CENTCOM initially reported a 15 drone swarm, but just revised the number up to 28.
Mar 1 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
🚨A LOT going down in the Taiwan Strait—all of this happened in February (a thread) Image The Taiwan Strait is one of several flashpoints worth closely watching in the Indo-Pacific.
Feb 26 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Two U.S. Navy carrier strike groups are deployed & underway: 1 in the Middle East & 1 in the Indo-Pacific.

8 are currently active, 2 will be online mid-2024, & 1 is in long-term maintenance.

I don't see a scenario with half the fleet in the Pacific, as recent headlines suggest. Image USS Ronald Reagan is in port in Yokosuka, Japan, & set to be replaced this year by USS George Washington.

Theodore Roosevelt CSG is operating in the Philippine Sea, will be replaced by USS Abraham Lincoln.

America amphibious ready group spotted underway near Sagami Bay, Japan. Image
Feb 24 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Curious teaser released by China's military threatening Taiwan with military force if it doesn't bend the knee—& featuring the U.S. as a “fiery demon.”

Let's break it down & see what it means👇 Video is titled “Return Home,” depicting China with an adult hand & Taiwan as a lost child, reaching out & grasping for help.

“Little hands clutching big ones, together they step out of a fiery pit. Lanterns lit to chase away demons, for only in returning home does victory lie.” Image
Feb 19 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."

Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."

Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇 Paparo says the world is increasingly descending into chaos & disorder as China & Russia represent a pacing challenge to our security, freedom, & well-being.

"From Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific, we're seeing significant shifts in state behaviors & they are not random."
Feb 10 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
A lot of military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- Chinese & Russian surface action groups underway east of Taiwan
- U.S. dual carrier operations & exercises with allies
- Unprecedented attack on Taiwan’s sovereignty

Japan: “The situation is extremely serious & unpredictable.” Image Yesterday, China sent 8 balloons toward Taiwan—the highest daily total ever recorded.

69 balloons have been tracked in 2024, including 20 flights that passed directly over the island—a significant violation of Taiwan’s territory & sovereignty & putting the status quo at risk.
Feb 10 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Taiwan detected 8 Chinese balloons over & around its territorial airspace today.

🎈8 sets a new record as the most balloons dispatched in a single day. Image Taiwan tracked 69 Chinese balloons year-to-date, including 20 direct overflights & more than 30 violations of territorial airspace.
Feb 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🚨U.S. military strikes in retaliation for a deadly attack on U.S. troops have started in Syria, a U.S. official confirmed to ABC.

Illustrative strike package & thread with live updates: Image Breaking news from ABC: Image
Jan 31 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Heightened Chinese military activity around Taiwan in January:

• 300+ aircraft & 135 warships detected
• Significant attack on Taiwan's sovereignty & airspace with daily violations
• Notice the flight paths cluster around major cities, air & naval bases & red beaches

Quick🧵 Image Since Taiwan’s election on 13 January, there has been a considerable increase in Chinese PLA military activity around the island.

Starting a new thread below with updates since I posted this 👇
Jan 28 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
China likely to demonstrate “force against Taiwan in the near term,” said the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

We could be seeing that now. 10 things you may have missed (as always, from accounts to follow) 👇 Image “I don't know how you connect those dots, but they're pretty effective in the information space. Doesn't have to be true. They've just got to say it enough times.” —Admiral Acquilino

Below, I try to connect a few dots & shed light on China's military aggression in the region.