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Ian Ellis Profile picture
Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones
Founder ✈︎ @iejmedia ⚡︎ @indopacpodcast ⚡︎ ex @goldmansachs ⚡︎ Puncturing the false narratives of adversaries ⚡︎ Subscribe for early access to database + AI ↯
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Apr 18 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
American strategic bomber fleet out in full force 🇺🇸

• 4x USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Japan in support of first Bomber Task Force mission, marking a historic visit

• 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers forward deployed to Diego Garcia continue strike ops against the Houthi Image More info on the B-2 bomber deployment:
Apr 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New @jointstaffpa map shows the flight paths of Chinese (red) + Russian (yellow) military aircraft operating near Japan, Taiwan, + South Korea in the past year.

Japan scrambled 704 times in response, with two-thirds (464) due to Chinese aircraft. 3x as many PLA drones detected. Image 704 scrambles in FY2024 (1 April to 31 March) is a modest 5% (+35) increase over the prior period. Image
Apr 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below): Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Apr 1 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
BREAKING: China launches joint military exercises around Taiwan, practicing a “blockade on key areas”

On 1 April, PLA Eastern Theater Command deployed Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Forces to “close in on Taiwan from multiple directions.”

- Sea-air combat readiness patrols
- Joint seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Assault on maritime & ground targets
- Blockade on key areas & sea areas

“It is a stern warning & forceful deterrence against ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces.”

The PLA released a theme poster called “Closing In: Sinister Moves of Taiwan Separatists Courting Disaster Upon Themselves.” The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command began conducting joint military exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, 1 April 2025, according to an announcement by Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the theater command. Image
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Mar 30 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Six USAF B-2 Spirit stealth bombers — 1/3 of America’s fleet — forward deployed to Diego Garcia over the last week 🇺🇸

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) continues strike operations against the Houthi. Carl Vinson CSG, en route to the Middle East, is 1-2 weeks out. Image A comprehensive review of U.S. strike operations against the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen, which began on 15 March and continued every day since:
Mar 28 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 Unclassified Report — Inside America’s 14-day ongoing strike campaign against the Houthi

At least 158 precision air and naval strikes targeting Houthi infrastructure & leadership.

My most detailed brief ever and an unprecedented look at U.S. strike operations in Yemen: Image On Saturday, 15 March 2025, just before 11:44 EST, U.S. SECDEF confirmed with U.S. Central Command: “We are a go for mission launch,” initiating a series of precision strikes against 30+ Iranian-backed Houthi targets across Yemen, including a “target terrorist @ his known location.”
Mar 24 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Notable developments in the Indo-Pacific last week:

- China conducted back-to-back joint combat patrols 24nm from Taiwan on the same day for the first time
- 59 PLA aircraft detected around Taiwan + 43 entered its ADIZ on Monday, largest single-day surge of 2025 + highest in 5 months
- Recent PLA military drills in the Taiwan Strait, Western Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea, + Yellow/Bohai Sea
- New Shuiqiao landing barges carrying out docking trials with civil-military RO-RO ferries
- Elevated PLA drone activity, including WZ-10 + GJ-2

Taiwan recently wrapped up a week of “Rapid Response Exercises,” practicing tactical maneuvers, key asset protection, concealment, and cover operations to enhance readiness and response capabilities. MND said: “ROC Armed Forces closely monitor maritime and aerial activities, conducting joint operations to track and respond to PLA incursions.”

China’s foreign ministry stated: “China’s relevant military operation is necessary, lawful and legitimate in order to defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity. It’s a firm response to external forces who are hellbent on abetting and aiding ‘Taiwan independence,’ and a warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces’ unconscionable acts... Those who attempt to use Taiwan to contain China will get burned for playing with fire.”

More info and sources below:Image Review of Chinese PLA military activity 2025 year-to-date:
Mar 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
“...this newest logistics capability is further evidence of the PLA’s efforts to meet Chairman Xi Jinping’s reported mandate to have military capabilities necessary to conduct a large-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027.” @tshugart3 @ChinaMaritime Image “The new Shuiqiao LPUs offer the PLA a critical capability and fulfill a long-sought requirement to reliably deliver a large volume of second echelon forces into amphibious landing areas. In the context of other developments that include improvements to amphibious base infrastructure, the increased use of a diverse array of civilian vessels to support amphibious operations, and other PLA capability developments, the Shuiqiao LPUs are another example of the PLA significantly increasing capabilities to conduct a large-scale cross-strait operation—if they are ordered to do so—in coming years.”
Mar 18 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Many rumors circulating about U.S. aircraft carriers.

Here’s an update on all 11 🇺🇸

• 3x deployed: Truman in Red Sea, Vinson in WESTPAC, Washington forward in Japan
• 4x active/available: Ford completing COMPTUEX in the Atlantic, Lincoln & Roosevelt in San Diego, Nimitz in Bremerton
• 1x sea trials: Bush in the Atlantic
• 3x maintenance: Reagan in Puget Sound, Ike in Norfolk, Stennis in Newport News

American carriers frequently conduct routine operations off the coast of the U.S. - just because one leaves port does not mean it’s on deployment.

Ford is next up on the east coast but must first complete COMPTUEX training, & Nimitz has been conducting pre-deployment training off the west coast.

Senior U.S. officials @__CJohnston__ spoke with expect a deployment extension for Truman in CENTCOM. There is precedent to move a CSG from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, so Vinson could be sent in that direction if need be. In a surge scenario, Roosevelt & Lincoln are also available.

At this time, the U.S. Navy has not announced any new deployments. More info & sources below.Image The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (HSTCSG) is in the Red Sea currently conducting its 3rd day of strike operations against the Iranian-backed Houthi in Yemen.
Mar 16 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
🚨 The U.S. launched large-scale precision strikes against the Houthi in Yemen yesterday: Map

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, on station in the Red Sea, & USAF participated in the operation, which hit “dozens & dozens” of targets

~20% of the fleet in theater (thread) Image Approximately 50% of the deployed U.S. Navy force is in the Indo-Pacific + Med/Middle East area of responsibility.
Mar 6 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
China has really ratcheted up the bellicose rhetoric recently with warnings, threats, and ultimatums:

• “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

• “We will come and get you [Taiwan], sooner or later... We make no promise to renounce the use of force.”

• “Rubio’s remarks are steeped in the Cold-War mentality and full of lies and false accusations. The Taiwan question is the most crucial, sensitive and explosive issue in the China-U.S. relations. If the U.S. does not hope to trigger confrontation, they must stop crossing or trampling on the red line.”

• “Anyone who dares to push for ‘Taiwan independence’ will certainly face swift and strong countermeasures from the PLA. And we warn some individuals of the U.S. side: playing sneaky tricks on Taiwan would only backfire.”

• “We warn the [Taiwan] DPP authorities that holding back the tide with a broom will only end up in self-destruction... In the face of the prevailing trend of China’s reunification, any petty tricks by the DPP authorities are futile. Being too cunning by half will end up costing its life. As the PLA has pointed out multiple times, seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead end. For those who are hopelessly stubborn, let them crash headlong into the harsh reality.”

• “We urge the U.S. to immediately correct its wrongdoings, abide by the one-China principle and three China-U.S. joint communiqués, handle the Taiwan question with extra prudence, stop using Taiwan to contain China, stop upgrading its substantive relations with Taiwan, stop helping Taiwan expand so-called ‘international space,’ stop emboldening and supporting ‘Taiwan independence,’ and avoid further severe damage to China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

More info, updates, and sources below. Beijing’s response after the U.S. State Department removed the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its website:
Mar 2 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 China intensified its military presence & activity near Taiwan in Feb, significantly outpacing previous years

- 362 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ (4x more than 2024 & 5th highest on record)
- 223 navy warships tracked (+42%)
- 5x joint combat readiness patrols

Thread: Image The rapid pace of PLA military activity around Taiwan I covered in my January report continued through February, once again surpassing 2023 and 2024 levels.

Read the January review here, and see below for the February report.
Feb 27 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 Major Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific

- Launched snap live-fire drills 40 nautical miles from Taiwan
- Conducted unannounced live-fire drills between Australia & New Zealand
- Deployed 2x surface action groups led by Type 075 big deck amphibious assault ships 🧵 Image “The PLA has blatantly violated international norms by unilaterally designating a drill zone 40 NM off the coast of Kaohsiung and Pingtung, claiming to conduct live-fire exercises without prior warning.”
Feb 25 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
China is “on a war footing” & the PLA “pretends every day is the Super Bowl,” preparing for Taiwan contingencies

Masterclass from @MikeStudeman, former Commander of Naval Intelligence, on Bouma Report

- 2025 military outlook
- Invasion vs blockade
- Xi's gamble to surpass Mao🧵 Heavy stuff at high speed—
Jan 27 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
A lot of U.S. military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- 200 National Guard Airmen + F-35A fighters deployed to Kadena
- Elevated recon sorties; additional ISR assets moved into theater
- First exercise with the Philippines involving a U.S. carrier
- USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Guam
- USS America + USS Blue Ridge operating in WESTPAC
- Multiple exercises at Kadena, Yokota, & Misawa Air Bases
- Fast attack-sub USS Columbia (SSN 771) pulled into Guam
- Conducted 4-day combined aerial exercise with South Korea

More info + sources below.Image Snapshot: 2025 U.S. Navy footprint

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet)
Jan 20 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
“The pace of modernization that the PLA is going through is unprecedented. It’s far outpacing what we are doing...

We are the smallest and oldest that we’ve ever been. The Chinese, the PLA, is the largest and most modern that it has ever been.”

—USAF Brig. Gen. Douglas Wickert “That is risk. That is uncertainty. And that’s why what we are doing here at Edwards Air Force Base is extremely important.”

Fascinating perspective on China from the Commander of the 412th Test Wing, which plans and conducts all flight and ground testing of next-gen aircraft.
Jan 18 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
U.S. Navy force posture ahead of the presidential transition of power 🇺🇸

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet) Image Last update:
Jan 11 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
To counter China’s anti-access, area-denial approach to keep the U.S. out of the Pacific in a crisis, Dep. SECDEF says: “we’re changing the game,” and in “classified war games these approaches are paying off.”

“We’ve focused on developing and fielding innovative operational concepts and force designs for how we use our capabilities, showing that we can continually shape and master the changing character of warfare.

From the 1990s on, the PRC carefully crafted its elaborate military modernization to counter two longstanding U.S. approaches to power projection.

One was aircraft carriers, as deployed during the 1996 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. The other was our multi-month, time-phased force deployments that moved America’s military might from the continental U.S. into theater before an operation — like Desert Shield before Desert Storm and subsequent regional build-ups preceding later wars in Iraq and Afghanistan...

While there is much more work to do, it’s already manifesting in aspects that are quite different from the military that the PLA built itself to beat.”

More info below. Source: DOD, 10 Jan Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks spoke about “four lessons” she views as critical for prevailing in the U.S. strategic competition with China during a keynote address today at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Jan 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Outgoing U.S. Dep. Secretary of Defense:

“We want the PRC leadership to wake up each day, consider the risks of aggression, and think to themselves, ‘today is not the day’ — and for them to think that today, and every day, between now and 2027, in 2035, 2049, and beyond.” "Outpacing the PRC: Lessons Learned for Strategic Competition"
Jan 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Top conflicts to watch in 2025: @CFR_org

“The possibility that the U.S. could find itself in wars with not one but two major, nuclear-armed powers simultaneously is very real. The stakes today... cannot be overstated.”

680 experts prioritized 30 global hot spots (thread) Image “The level of armed conflict around the world has steadily grown in recent years, which in turn has increased the risk of costly U.S. military intervention. This is particularly the case in the Middle East, which continues to be wracked by deadly violence across multiple countries. This violence has clear potential to intensify and spread. The horrific war in Ukraine that by some estimates has already claimed a million casualties also shows no sign of abating. This conflict could likewise escalate in ways that threaten vital U.S. interests and necessitate much deeper and more costly involvement. While the situation in the Indo-Pacific region is comparatively peaceful, numerous flashpoints exist, not least across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea, that could suddenly ignite and rapidly draw in the U.S.”
Jan 6 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Since the U.S. election, China:

- Hacked the U.S. Treasury Department
- Conducted largest naval drills in decades
- Deployed ships in strength to the South China Sea
- Launched the world’s biggest amphibious warship
- Accused of sabotaging undersea cables in Asia & Europe
- Imposed crippling export controls & sanctions on U.S. firms
- Unveiled new advanced aircraft (J-35, J-36, J-15T/D, KJ-3000)
- Practiced a naval blockade near Japanese islands for the first time
- Continues to execute the “worst telecom hack in U.S. history,” which compromised DJT & JDV devices

Beijing sending a message to the incoming admin. More info & sources below. cc @marcorubio @michaelgwaltz @PeteHegseth @ElbridgeColby