🚨 China intensified its military presence & activity near Taiwan in Feb, significantly outpacing previous years

- 362 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ (4x more than 2024 & 5th highest on record)
- 223 navy warships tracked (+42%)
- 5x joint combat readiness patrols

Thread: The rapid pace of PLA military activity around Taiwan I covered in my January report continued through February, once again surpassing 2023 and 2024 levels.

Read the January review here, and see below for the February report.

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1888709497910141235

🚨 Major Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific

- Launched snap live-fire drills 40 nautical miles from Taiwan
- Conducted unannounced live-fire drills between Australia & New Zealand
- Deployed 2x surface action groups led by Type 075 big deck amphibious assault ships 🧵 “The PLA has blatantly violated international norms by unilaterally designating a drill zone 40 NM off the coast of Kaohsiung and Pingtung, claiming to conduct live-fire exercises without prior warning.”

https://twitter.com/mondefense/status/1894918623296196903

China is “on a war footing” & the PLA “pretends every day is the Super Bowl,” preparing for Taiwan contingencies

Masterclass from @MikeStudeman, former Commander of Naval Intelligence, on Bouma Report

- 2025 military outlook
- Invasion vs blockade
- Xi's gamble to surpass Mao🧵 Heavy stuff at high speed—

https://twitter.com/mikestudeman/status/1892699067869728768

A lot of U.S. military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- 200 National Guard Airmen + F-35A fighters deployed to Kadena
- Elevated recon sorties; additional ISR assets moved into theater
- First exercise with the Philippines involving a U.S. carrier
- USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Guam
- USS America + USS Blue Ridge operating in WESTPAC
- Multiple exercises at Kadena, Yokota, & Misawa Air Bases
- Fast attack-sub USS Columbia (SSN 771) pulled into Guam
- Conducted 4-day combined aerial exercise with South Korea

More info + sources below. Snapshot: 2025 U.S. Navy footprint

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet)

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1880695222449185195

“The pace of modernization that the PLA is going through is unprecedented. It’s far outpacing what we are doing...

We are the smallest and oldest that we’ve ever been. The Chinese, the PLA, is the largest and most modern that it has ever been.”

—USAF Brig. Gen. Douglas Wickert “That is risk. That is uncertainty. And that’s why what we are doing here at Edwards Air Force Base is extremely important.”

Fascinating perspective on China from the Commander of the 412th Test Wing, which plans and conducts all flight and ground testing of next-gen aircraft.

https://twitter.com/iejmedia/status/1881131469810360438

U.S. Navy force posture ahead of the presidential transition of power 🇺🇸

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet) Last update:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1861917062693535837

To counter China’s anti-access, area-denial approach to keep the U.S. out of the Pacific in a crisis, Dep. SECDEF says: “we’re changing the game,” and in “classified war games these approaches are paying off.”

“We’ve focused on developing and fielding innovative operational concepts and force designs for how we use our capabilities, showing that we can continually shape and master the changing character of warfare.

From the 1990s on, the PRC carefully crafted its elaborate military modernization to counter two longstanding U.S. approaches to power projection.

One was aircraft carriers, as deployed during the 1996 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. The other was our multi-month, time-phased force deployments that moved America’s military might from the continental U.S. into theater before an operation — like Desert Shield before Desert Storm and subsequent regional build-ups preceding later wars in Iraq and Afghanistan...

While there is much more work to do, it’s already manifesting in aspects that are quite different from the military that the PLA built itself to beat.”

More info below. Source: DOD, 10 Jan Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks spoke about “four lessons” she views as critical for prevailing in the U.S. strategic competition with China during a keynote address today at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1877897989726912872

Outgoing U.S. Dep. Secretary of Defense:

“We want the PRC leadership to wake up each day, consider the risks of aggression, and think to themselves, ‘today is not the day’ — and for them to think that today, and every day, between now and 2027, in 2035, 2049, and beyond.” "Outpacing the PRC: Lessons Learned for Strategic Competition"

https://twitter.com/iejmedia/status/1877898763743735958

Top conflicts to watch in 2025: @CFR_org

“The possibility that the U.S. could find itself in wars with not one but two major, nuclear-armed powers simultaneously is very real. The stakes today... cannot be overstated.”

680 experts prioritized 30 global hot spots (thread) “The level of armed conflict around the world has steadily grown in recent years, which in turn has increased the risk of costly U.S. military intervention. This is particularly the case in the Middle East, which continues to be wracked by deadly violence across multiple countries. This violence has clear potential to intensify and spread. The horrific war in Ukraine that by some estimates has already claimed a million casualties also shows no sign of abating. This conflict could likewise escalate in ways that threaten vital U.S. interests and necessitate much deeper and more costly involvement. While the situation in the Indo-Pacific region is comparatively peaceful, numerous flashpoints exist, not least across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea, that could suddenly ignite and rapidly draw in the U.S.”

Since the U.S. election, China:

- Hacked the U.S. Treasury Department
- Conducted largest naval drills in decades
- Deployed ships in strength to the South China Sea
- Launched the world’s biggest amphibious warship
- Accused of sabotaging undersea cables in Asia & Europe
- Imposed crippling export controls & sanctions on U.S. firms
- Unveiled new advanced aircraft (J-35, J-36, J-15T/D, KJ-3000)
- Practiced a naval blockade near Japanese islands for the first time
- Continues to execute the “worst telecom hack in U.S. history,” which compromised DJT & JDV devices

Beijing sending a message to the incoming admin. More info & sources below. cc @marcorubio @michaelgwaltz @PeteHegseth @ElbridgeColby

🚨 China launches world’s largest amphibious assault warship

The first Type 076 landing helicopter dock (LHD), CNS Sichuan (51), made its debut in Shanghai on Friday and features “significant technological upgrades that place it in a class above its peers.”

Here’s what we know: Official announcement less than an hour ago:

🚨 China quietly carried out a sweeping military operation this week in the Western Pacific — its largest naval deployment in decades.

Taiwan defense officials called the unannounced exercise staggering, unprecedented, and extremely rare.

Here’s everything you need to know 🧵 Earlier this week, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a massive joint military exercise around the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific, targeting the entire first island chain.

Taiwan’s military spokesperson said the scale of the naval deployment was the largest since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. In a notable first, Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands participated together in coordination.

Admiral Paparo: “I remain confident that we’d prevail in a conflict with the PRC over Taiwan...

And, in fact, the PRC also doubts their own ability to prevail in such a conflict...

That doesn’t negate that if they decided there would have to be a war of necessity, they’re going at tremendous risk to themselves...

Our concern is that the margin — expressed in risk of succeeding, lost lives, lost capability, lost money, and lost time — is eroding.” Adm. Paparo, Commander of @INDOPACOM, speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, says the U.S. needs to double down on:

A lot going on in the Indo-Pacific — a few things you may have missed last week 🧵

- Chinese balloons are back around Taiwan
- China + Russia conduct 9th joint strategic aerial patrol
- Largest swarm of Chinese ships ever near Philippines’ Thitu island
- Taiwan intercepts China Coast Guard ships in Kinmen’s restricted waters
- Three PRC research vessels enter the Philippines’ EEZ
- CCG carries out intrusive patrols in Malaysia’s EEZ
- Taiwan’s President lands in Hawaii, irking Beijing
- U.S. approves $320 million arms sale to Taiwan

China could launch military drills, or exercise “Joint Sword C,” in response. More info + sources below. Chinese balloons are back—

After a 7+ month hiatus, Taiwan detected at least 6 Chinese balloons entering its air defense ID zone (ADIZ) over the last week.

From December 2023 to April 2024, China sent an unprecedented 102 balloons over and around the island.

New details from DOD — U.S. Navy repels multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks:

- Destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) & USS Spruance (DDG 111), part of the Lincoln CSG, were attacked while transiting the BAM on 11 Nov
- Included at least 8x one-way attack drones, 5x anti-ship ballistic missiles, & 3x anti-ship cruise missiles
- Despite reports, aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) (recently in the Gulf of Aden) was not targeted
- Successfully engaged & defeated with no injuries or damage

“CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense & will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.” —Pentagon Press Sec “On November 11th, U.S. Central Command forces successfully repelled multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks during a transit of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. During the transit, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Stockdale and USS Spruance were attacked by at least eight one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles, which were successfully engaged and defeated.

The vessels were not damaged. No personnel were hurt. Again, CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense, and as I highlighted earlier, will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.”

Updated chart visualizing Chinese PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone (ADIZ) this year.

The record-breaking surge began in May following President Lai’s inauguration. By August, ADIZ incursions had already surpassed 2023 totals — with the tally now 1,000+ higher. First iteration:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1832952083378479444

The U.S. Marine Corps’ XQ-58A Valkyrie, a highly autonomous, long-range, low-cost tactical unmanned platform, completed its 4th test flight & “effectively demonstrated its capabilities as a forward deployed sensing platform — providing critical threat targeting data to USMC 5th-generation aircraft to rapidly close advanced kill chains.” Multi-domain test event “Emerald Flag” provides opportunity for XQ-58A to demonstrate tactical data link integration (Source: USMC)

🚨 JOINT SWORD 2024B BRIEF + MAP

- China launched a simulated blockade around Taiwan
- Deployed a fleet of 34 PLAN + CCG ships
- Carrier group practiced securing a key choke point
- 153 PLA aircraft detected, with 111 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ—the most ever recorded in a single day On 14 October, China’s PLA Eastern Theater Command conducted exercise “Joint Sword 2024B,” launching a major 13-hour joint military drill & encircling Taiwan from the north, south, east, & west

The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Force practiced “sea-air combat readiness patrols, a blockade on key ports & areas, assault on maritime & ground targets, & joint seizure of comprehensive superiority”

Map — Key Iranian infrastructure, military bases, oil platforms, & nuclear sites that Israel could target in a retaliatory strike. Also:

- U.S. Gen. Kurilla in Tel Aviv
- Iranian Navy gets underway
- More countries close airspace
- Iran issues NOTAMs
- “All options on the table” This is an add-on to my map & thread from yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1842361568119460325

🚨 Update — U.S. force posture as Israel begins ground operation in Lebanon:

- Deploying an “additional few thousand” U.S. troops
- Sending more F-15E, F-16, F-22, & A-10 squadrons
- ABE CSG & WASP ARG remaining on station
- Truman CSG in the Atlantic en route
+ Increased readiness of additional U.S. forces to deploy

“DOD has taken steps to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression & reduce the risk of a broader regional war.”


Source: Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh Holds an Off-Camera Press Briefing, 30 September 2024

CNO released the “Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy” & unveiled “Project 33”

Focuses on two strategic ends: 1) Readiness for the possibility of war with China by 2027, & 2) Enhancing long-term advantage

A few highlights from the 30-page doc: “Our adversaries have designed their militaries to overcome our traditional sources of strength. We must move rapidly to stay ahead and continuously create warfighting advantages... We will put more players on the field—platforms that are ready with the right capabilities, weapons and sustainment, and people who are ready with the right skills, tools, training, and mindset.” @USNavyCNO