Thread by @MarkHertling

Since the start of the Russia invasion, I believed Ukraine would persevere. That hasn’t changed, though the battlefield conditions have.

Recently, many have reported “slow movement,” “stumbling,” “lack of success,” of UAF, from those unfamiliar with operational details. 1/

By “operational details,” I mean conditions of the battlefield…those things that affect gaining ground or achieving success by a force.

Often times in combat, units take 3 steps forward, 2 back.

I know this from personal experience. 2/

“Operational details” also describes the synchronization of soldiers, equipment, the terrain, the leadership.

Putting x equipment (new or old) with y soldiers (rookie or experienced) under z leaders (great or good) on any given terrain will result in different outcomes. 3/

Oh…and the enemy always gets a vote.

There are no magic potions - units, equipment, leaders, conditions - that guarantee success.

Only the commander in his command post - in this case Gen Zaluznhyi - can accurately assess these things. 4/

Luck, adaptability, recent “scar tissue” & learning will also play a part in operational & tactical movement.

Example: a bit of luck, the massing of forces on the right terrain, a “snap” decision on the part of 1 risk-taking leader, can turn a slow advance into a breakthru. 5/

And BTW, these things may happen to RU forces, too (though I believe that’s less likely).

IMHO, the UAF are experiencing exactly what any soldier who understands this kind of combat would have predicted.

The tempo isn’t slow or fast…it is what it usually is in combat. 6/

WRT the F16 announcement this weekend, that’s more commitment to long-term support of Ukraine than it is of contributions to the current fight.

This summer, both Netherlands & Denmark recently had F16s available due to arrival of F35s this summer. 7/

f-16.net/f-35-news-arti…

The @KyivPost had a very optimistic but also realistic view of these aircraft (I take issue w some of the assertions, but bottom line these planes won’t contribute to success in the current stage). “Winning” in the future is correct. 8/

kyivpost.com/post/20758

Here’s some predictions:

-Ukraine will see significant tactical breakthroughs on 1 or 2 axis of advance in the next few weeks.

-the will continue to advance slowly on E & SE fronts…then will see a “surprise” success, likely in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 9/

-Ru forces won’t be able to reinforce a key area on the “Suvorikin line,” which will contribute to UAF success.

-support for Putin in RU will continue to decline & by Christmas he’ll be in dire straits in Moscow.

-western support for key “ground” support will continue. 10/

Personally, I’m reading reports in the press, talking to others, but also applying what I believe is happening on the battlefield.

But like others, I don’t see what Gen Zaluzhnyi sees…after all, that’s the key to truly understanding this phase of the campaign. 11/11