Thread by @4lex_mcfc

Is this the moment Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden reign supreme in Manchester?

👥 City's personnel
💥 Distribution of output
📋 Tactical nuances
🔄 Rotation threats
🚨 Why now is the right time in FPL

A thread 🧵

Since last season, City have lost three key attackers:

🇩🇪 Ilkay Gundogan (transfer)
🇩🇿 Riyad Mahrez (transfer)
🇧🇪 Kevin De Bruyne (injury)

Between the trio in 22/23, a combined 20 PL goals and 30 PL assists (36 goals and 47 assists in all comps)

In their absence, it's essential for City to, in some way or another, "replace" their output.

One way to do this is through the transfer market

Yet, City's attacking signings don't necessarily point in that direction - at least not in the immediate future...

🇭🇷 Mateo Kovacic is an incredible signing, but he offers only a fraction of what Gundogan offered going forward

🇧🇪 Jeremy Doku has the potential to be a primary producer (think Raheem Sterling's past roles at City), but he's a bit raw and likely won't offer much immediate impact

While City may sign another attacker in the coming days, that certainly doesn't solve the issues with immediate effect - nor would it fully solve the issues in the long-term

The swifter solution:

"Promote" from within.

If we take a look at City's production rates from last season (across all comps), Alvarez and Foden are quite clearly the most reliable and ready-made (young) men for the job

The only player who comes close is Jack Grealish, and he played 807 more minutes than Foden and 929 more minutes than Alvarez - he doesn't have a high ceiling for growth in that regard

After that, it's Cole Palmer, then Rodri and Bernardo Silva a ways below

💎 Simply put, Alvarez and Foden have the ideal combination of production rate and (lack of) minutes to be able to take the step up and become Haaland's right (and left) hand men

Especially in the short-term, and potentially in the long-term, they are City's attacking solution.

When I say short-term, what exactly do I mean?

💎 GW3 (shu) and GW4 (FUL), for sure

After that, the situation can and will become a bit more complex.

Why?

- Doku may pose a threat
- City may sign another attacker
- UCL rotation begins between GW5 (whu) and GW6 (NFO)

Of course, there are a lot of unknowns involved

Doku may be eased in and utilized as an impact sub

City may fail to sign another attacker

Even if City sign another attacker, that player may be eased in

We really don't know if or when the dynamic will change.

💎 What we do know is for the moment, City's attack relies heavily upon the trio of Haaland, Alvarez, and Foden

Unless Pep and Juanma get cute and start to experiment, they are the second and third guys in attack, until proven otherwise.

So, how does this relationship tactically organize itself?

Simply put, in possession, Alvarez and Foden have been occupying the half space attacking midfield roles Gundogan and De Bruyne presided over last season.

To add some more detail:

While Alvarez and Foden have been the standout replacements for those roles for some time, the main issue is both lack the defensive abilities typically required of the role (or at least to be deployed there together), out of possession

However, in GW1 (see below) and GW2, we saw Pep craft a solution that forgoes this awkwardness - by starting one (or both) out wide, pinching them narrow in possession, and utilizing the fullbacks for width

This development is crucial.

Now, City can field their preferred in-possession attack alongside one of their preferred out-of-possession outfits - masking player's weaknesses and playing to their strengths

Even in just two games, we have seen the (potential) potency of this trio in full effect

Centralized, isolated (in a good way), and heavily relied upon

Take a look at some moments from City's GW1 fixture against Burnley

Against Newcastle in GW2, in a different tactical context, we saw this relationship prevail (with a slightly different system, overall)

Most often, it has been Foden as the primary ball-carrier and creative hub, Haaland as the central figure, and Alvarez fluidly playing off them

If we look at the stats, what do we see?

🔸 GW1 - bur

The trio combined for 10 of City's 17 shots (58.8%), 1.21 of City's 2.08 xG (58.2%), and 10 chances created

🔸 GW2 - NEW

...8 of City's 14 shots (57.1%), 0.8 of City's 1.01 xG (79.2%), and 10 chances created

To dive deeper into a few more PL stats:

(Again, keep in mind the incredibly small sample size for this season)

📉 City's xG per shot is 28% LESS than last season's average

📈 Haaland is averaging 0.49 MORE shots per game compared to last season

📈 Foden is averaging 0.75 MORE shots per game compared to last season

📉 Alvarez is averaging 0.83 LESS shots per game compared to last season

City may be undergoing some growing pains, as players get comfortable in new roles, but there isn't a strong correlation between that idea and the small sample size we have so far

💎 In fact, Haaland and Foden are more involved than before

Perhaps, it's only a matter of time.

To play devil's advocate:

❌ Which players could pose a threat to Alvarez or Foden's minutes, if this dynamic is to persist?

(Prepare for a long-winded answer)

Genuinely, the biggest threat to Alvarez and Foden starting together in the short-term is not a player, but a tactical aspect

Against stronger opposition, especially teams with a quality midfield, Pep may opt to play all three of Bernardo, Kovacic, and Rodri

Unless Rodri drops in as a centerback out of possession, this leaves only two places in the XI for Alvarez, Foden, and Grealish

A simple push and pull of tactical priorities - you can't always play everyone everywhere.

Perhaps the saving grace in that scenario, just as we saw against Burnley, is Grealish could actually be the one who makes way

Regardless, when I look at the upcoming fixtures, City's favorable run bodes well for Alvarez and Foden's prospects

Wolves in GW7 is the main PL fixture (in the next five) I could see all three midfielders starting together

Fulham in GW4 and West Ham in GW5 are outside shouts, but I certainly wouldn't expect all three midfielders to start both

We don't know who City play in the UCL, so who knows how that impacts GW5, GW6, or GW7

Generally speaking, there isn't all that much to worry about, tactically-speaking, for this GW3 through GW7 run

💎 Notably, against teams of lesser quality who tend to drop back - like Sheffield United (GW3) and Nottingham Forest (GW6) - City can afford to field an ultra-attacking lineup

All five of Haaland, Grealish, Alvarez, Foden, and Palmer starting isn't out of the question in those games

(Here's an example of this sort of attacking outfit, against Nottingham Forest back in February)

Simply put, City don't have anyone who offers what Alvarez and Foden uniquely bring to the table, for the time being

Tactically, there will be moments when Pep opts for a more pragmatic XI...

Yet, none of City's upcoming fixtures particularly necessitate that

💎 Of course, Alvarez and Foden will be benched at one time or another over this run (I highly doubt they both start five out of five), yet, their minutes are more secure than they've ever been

So, the big question for many of us is:

This all sounds nice, but what exactly does it mean for FPL?

💎 In my opinion, the opportunity we're facing ~going into GW3~ is an opportunity we rarely have

It seems a bit silly to not try to take advantage of that

Let me explain...

Alvarez and Foden are:

Two mid-priced assets from the best attack in the PL...

Operating as two of that team's three primary producers...

Are currently heavily relied upon tactically...

Have extra minutes security due to a lack of depth...

Both have hat trick potential...

Also take the majority of City's set pieces...

and face two of the worst defenses in the PL in their next two games.

Ignoring our deep-rooted biases of Pep Roulette for a second, is that not FPL heaven?

Once the International Break hits, Doku gets involved, and City potentially sign another midfielder...

We may return to the status quo, where my advice remains:

Assets like Alvarez and Foden are good picks, but best held over a medium-term period where you hope their ceiling and explosivity balances out with their inevitable benchings

💎 That being said, none of those worries really apply to GW3 or GW4

There's always a slight risk, of course, but that risk has been minimized.

With such a unique set of circumstances, my advice is:

💥 If you are going to strike, strike while the iron is hot.

Of course, anything can happen.

Maybe one of them is benched in one of these two games...

Maybe Pep and Juanma test out a new tactical variation...

Maybe one of them gets injured...

You never know.

Yet, from where we stand, it looks like we have an incredible opportunity on our hands

I wouldn't rip my team up, if you have drastic issues to solve elsewhere, solve those

I wouldn't necessarily take a -4 hit for either player

Of course, some people may be tentative to budge on their midfield - fair enough

With all that being said...

You can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket.

Last but not least, if I had to pick one of the two, who would I prioritize?

💎 Phil Foden

Look, both have hat trick potential and variance will have its say, especially if we're just talking GW3 -GW4

However, Foden seems just a bit more involved/crucial to the attack, gets a point for clean sheets, and an extra point for goals

Knock knock, did someone order a haul?

Thanks for reading! 🩵

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Man City GW3 Prediction, Starting Odds, and Commentary will be out on Friday, around 3 pm BST

Lastly, check out my thread on City's defenders in FPL, if you missed it ⬇️