Manchester City's boring summer.

Analyzing City's potential summer 2024 transfer window, breaking down the logistics of everything, defending the "sell to buy" method, and responding to the current unrest amongst fans.

[A THREAD] "City need to make a big signing this summer."
"Why wait to buy until after you sell?"
"How will we compete with Real?"

If you are a City fan, you know these takes/questions are abundant at the moment.

And I'll be honest - It. Is. Tiring.
It is reactionary and surface level.

Here are 15 of the most interesting stats from Manchester City's 2023/24 Premier League season so far.

Some will make you laugh, some will make you nod your head, and some will absolutely blow you away...

[A THREAD] (Disclaimer: All stats are taken from FBRef and all PL player comparison rankings only include players with >1,000 minutes played this season)

When the lights shine the brightest.

On big moments, big players, and how club football's biggest stage demands individual brilliance, time and time again.

A thread. Another season, another sensational equalizer at the Bernabéu for City's attacking focal point.

A year ago, KDB, to make it 1-1.
This time around, Phil Foden, 2-2.

Yet another moment which signifies the passing of the torch from one era to another.

Man City - Arsenal Prematch Analysis

Assessing 5 key dynamics for City, discussing Pep's selection options, and breaking down how it all can come together for the reigning champions to take away a crucial 3 points.

[A THREAD] [PREDICTED LINEUPS]

MCI: Ederson; Gvardiol, Ake, Ruben, Akanji; Bernardo, Rodri; Grealish, Haaland, De Bruyne, Foden

ARS: Raya; Kiwior, Gabriel, Saliba, White; Rice, Jorginho; (Martinelli/Trossard), Havertz, Odegaard, Saka

City's narrow win over Bournemouth gave us a glimpse into an alternate reality... and perhaps the reasons why that reality is not our own.

On Haaland, Nunes, and breaking the mould of what "City football" under Pep is about.

[A THREAD] On Saturday, Pep surprised us all.

Even after seeing the full lineup, I'm not sure anyone on the timeline anticipated the tactical idea.

An approach that played directly to Erling Haaland's strengths and utilized Matheus Nunes in an unorthodox fashion...

Bright Lights, Big (Game) City

- Discussing 7 talking points revolving around the key questions Pep Guardiola and Man City face approaching the height of the run in -

[A THREAD] This season, for many City fans (myself included), something feels off.

Of course, there's still plenty of time left in the season, but a lack of dominance in crucial fixtures and numerous looming dilemmas has left a cloud of ~relative~ uncertainty.

On Man City's "footballing machine," modernism, and balancing ego and identity in the context of Pep Guardiola's football.

[A THREAD] As @aar0n_nt says:

"What Pep does isn't football."

I would be inclined to agree.

With regards to why City's xG is lower at home (1.66 xG/game) compared to previous seasons (2.25 xG/game in 2022/23 and 2.40 xG/game in 2021/22), I think that's likely down to one factor:

The absence of KDB.

Allow me to explain... We all know how brilliant KDB is.

Specifically, his delivery.

Even more specifically, that delivery coupled with the central threat of Haaland.

When it comes to goalscoring, Man City are having one of the most anomalous league seasons in recent history.

Allow me to explain why...

- A mind-boggling stats-filled deep dive into finishing, home advantage, and what exactly makes City so unique -

[A THREAD] Recently, I stumbled upon this stat:

(2023/24, PL)

City at home - 27 goals from 16.6 xG
City away - 27 goals from 26.9 xG

As objective as we understand xG to be, how could a team possibly finish chances at such a staggeringly different rate at home compared to away from home?

Phil Foden's scintillating display against Brentford is the most meaningful performance of his entire career.

An age-old hero's tale.

On sleeping giants, maturity, and the passing of the torch from king to prince.

[A THREAD] A hat trick.
3 chances created.
95% pass accuracy.
6 recoveries.

Objectively, an all-around show-stopping performance from the Stockport Iniesta.

Up there as one of his ~best~ performances to date - debatably at the pinnacle.

Return of the King 👑

- Analysis of City's attack in Kevin De Bruyne's stunning return to Premier League action -

On Foden and KDB's relationship, Gvardiol's attacking agency, and the impeccable genius of Oscar Bobb...

[A THREAD] 69th minute, 2-1 down, enter Kevin De Bruyne.

From that point on, we witnessed a steamrolling 20+ minutes from the Blues.

At the center of it all, one man.

The Foden-De Bruyne Jigsaw...

Will the two play through the center together?

- On the key dilemma Pep Guardiola faces as the Belgian nears his return -

[A THREAD] After Foden's spectacular, MOTM-level central performances over the past few weeks, one question looms above all:

What happens once KDB returns?

Can they play through the middle together or will Foden be forced back out wide?

Secondary Talismen, Differentials, and Choosing Players to Sacrifice in FPL 💥

Another long, stats-based thread 🧵 Four days ago, I put out a thread discussing some research on a simple, and perhaps common sense, approach to FPL:

🧠 Target the players who occupy the most important attacking roles (% share of team's xG/xAG) on the best attacks in the league

Talismen, Focal Points, and Identifying the Best Long-Term FPL Picks 💎

A long, stats-based thread 🧵 🧠 8 Gameweeks into the 2023/24 PL season, with a 12-day International Break, it's a great time to take a step back and assess this season's data

💫 In this thread, I try to identify the most reliable FPL picks of this season

(Of course, the statistical sample is still relatively small - so, take the specifics of this thread with a grain of salt, if you'd like)

How does Erling Haaland perform against the toughest PL opposition?

On City's upcoming fixture run, the Norwegian's explosiveness, and whether it's a crazy idea to go against him in FPL...

A thread 🧵 🗓️ City's Fixture Run

In City's next six PL games, they face four traditional "Top 6" sides and Brighton - not to mention Spurs at home in GW14 and Villa away in GW15

As well, nested within this run of six games are three UCL games (between Gameweeks 7/8, 9/10, and 11/12)

Man City Predicted Lineup 🔮

GW6 - Forest (H)

(Starting Odds 🎲 and Commentary 🎙 included in the thread below) Hi, everyone! 🩵

Welcome back to another season of my City lineup predictions - if you enjoy, please consider sharing 🔁 and following ✅

Every PL Gameweek for City, I'll have:

🔮 Lineup Prediction
🎲 Starting Odds
🎙️ Commentary
📝 Tactical Review (sporadic)

Julián Álvarez - Tactical Analysis

How well is he actually performing?

Analyzing the Argentine's inconsistency and highlighting what he needs to improve on to become one of City's most reliable players

[A THREAD] Julián Álvarez, la Araña

So far this season, the Argentine wonderkid has played a crucial role in City's success

✅ 4/4 PL games started
⚽️ 2 PL goals (from 1.8 xG)
🅰️ 1 PL assist (from 0.6 xA)

Along with that...

Is this the moment Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden reign supreme in Manchester?

👥 City's personnel
💥 Distribution of output
📋 Tactical nuances
🔄 Rotation threats
🚨 Why now is the right time in FPL

A thread 🧵 Since last season, City have lost three key attackers:

🇩🇪 Ilkay Gundogan (transfer)
🇩🇿 Riyad Mahrez (transfer)
🇧🇪 Kevin De Bruyne (injury)

Between the trio in 22/23, a combined 20 PL goals and 30 PL assists (36 goals and 47 assists in all comps)

A Working Guide to Pep Roulette

[August 2023 - Preseason, Part #1]

- Analyzing Man City's depth and rotation possibilities heading into the 23/24 season -

[A THREAD] [0.1 Intro]

Another City season, another season of supporters and fantasy managers trying to break down the madness in Pep's mind

The issue: There's never one exact answer

Why Phil Foden is primed for a top-5 Premier League performance this season

- On squad dynamics, positionality, minutes, and output -

[A THREAD] 23-year-old Philip Walter Foden - father of El Wey and indisputably one of the best young talents in world football

Yet, as good as the general public recognizes he is, the same evaluation leads to some curious questions...

Replacing Riyad Mahrez

- Unpacking City's most difficult task of the summer, describing the three primary paths, and explaining why two targets are head and shoulders above the rest -

[A THREAD] After five seasons at the Etihad, at the age of 32, Algerian Riyad Mahrez is leaving Man City for Saudi Pro League side Al Ahli

Over the course of his time at City, Mahrez played a vital role in the squad - one that requires consistency and patience