H I Sutton Profile picture
Independent Defense Analysis, Unconventional Naval Warfare, author, submarines, #OSINT, illustrations. Mostly typos

Aug 23, 2023, 10 tweets

**UPDATE**

Following #Ukraine’s systematic attacks on key infrastructure and supply lines to Crimea, #Russia is beginning to show signs its working

Yesterday Ru gov asked hotels etc to report food and fuel stocks
Via @JanR210 < follow this account

Thread 🧵 1/n

2/n
This may be strategically significant both because Crimea is a route to reinforce Ru positions in southern Ukraine, and because Crimea itself is the jewel in itself

There is also a major naval base in Sevastopol

3
The July attack on Kerch bridge by a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) disrupted the main supply line. The threat of this being cut is very real for Russia.

4
Russia has been building a temporary extra part of the bridge, but it is still limited

Nod @MT_Anderson

5
Russia tried to use navy landing ships to sail supplies to Crimea but these are few, and Ukraine successfully attacked one


6
Ukraine also targeted the tankers moving fuel for military aircraft and vehicles. The tanker Sig has a massive hole in it

7
And in the north, the bridges connecting Crimea to rest of southern Ukraine have been seriously damaged and constricted

8
Will we see panic fuel buying in Crimea? Runs on supermarkets?

I suspect that we haven’t seen the end of this chapter in the war

Correction on my translation of original post, inventory of power generators /batteries

Same overall perspective applies.

Crimea has weak power generation and distribution network

10
Thread focused on Crimea, but fuel shortages also further east

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