H I Sutton Profile picture
Independent Defense Analysis, Submarines, #OSINT, illustrations. Author of Covert Shores books. Write for @USNINews, @navalnewscom and more Mostly typos.
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Sep 27 9 tweets 4 min read
*** NORD STREAM 2 incident ***

/Thread

I am getting a lot of questions re #Russian underwater sabotage capabilities due to the leak on the #NordStream2 pipeline off Denmark.

I do not have time to respond to media right now (sorry)

So just lay out some background reference. oil slick NordStream 2. Pho... 1. Circumstances
The leak is near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099° in ~70 meters of water. This would be divable

2 things do make it suspicious:
a) It is just over 12 nautical miles from the Island in International waters
b) the EEZ here is disputed here (?) Image
Sep 23 4 tweets 1 min read
This guy is a genius. He plans to be sent home for having insufficient coordination to even feed a cannon
Aug 31 4 tweets 1 min read
Hey @Indiasgrowing, why are you using my illustrations without permission?

...and then threatening others with copyright? Separately. I would be very surprised if Type-212CD was even in the running
Aug 30 4 tweets 2 min read
***BREAKING***

#Iran's IRGC attempted to take a US Navy Saildrone Explorer uncrewed surface vessel (USV)

US Navy patrol boat, USS Thunderbolt (PC 12), intervened. Tow released.

Nod @ryankakiuchan US Navy drone taken by Iran... dvidshub.net/image/7394252/…
Aug 30 4 tweets 2 min read
***BREAKING***
Here -> hisutton.com/Ustinov-Cruise…

#Russian Navy SLAVA class cruiser Marshal Ustinov, with UDALOY Class anti-submarine destroyer, expected to sail up between Britain and Ireland. Royal Navy shadow and tanker visible on AIS.

#OSINT Russian Navy SLAVA Class cr... Well, since posting this, they have done a U-turn.

Both the tanker and RN shadow, and by implication the Russian warships, currently heading back.

However, this is a fluid situation

Maybe the PR guys called up the Navy? Image
Aug 17 10 tweets 5 min read
Ok, so the plot of a feel-good techno thriller, submarine themed, that I will probably never write…

Thread/ Navy explosion 2/
Imagine that Lockheed skunk works had built their stealth submarine design in the 1980s. It’s technically owned by them and operated by CIA with part #USNavy crew. A deniable asset etc, kept absolutely secret.

Approx design: hisutton.com/Lockheed-Steal…
Aug 12 9 tweets 4 min read
*** #OSINT ***

Surprisingly, the Zubr class hovercraft in Feodosia, Crimea, Black Sea, has been moved since the start of the #Ukraine War

The Pr. 12322 Zubr is the largest type in the world

Thread/ Zubr Hovercraft, Crimea 2/
It is at Feodosia 'More' shipyard. This was Ukrainian but was taken over by Russia gov 100% in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.

In 2014 it became part of Rostec. Now in March this year, after the invasion, it was transferred to United Shipbuilding Corporation. No fee Zubr hovercraft
Aug 9 4 tweets 2 min read
#OSINT

Provisional single-view geolocation of explosion at #Russian Navy Saki air base, Crimea, supports suggestion that at least one of the ammunition storage areas has explosions

Caveats apply, hope better efforts of geolocation can confirm/disprove Image Calm before the storm, satellite image from 08:47 UTC today Image
Aug 4 5 tweets 4 min read
***BREAKING***

Videos of another important naval action(s) off Crimea today.

Possibly #Ukraine hit a #Russian ship in north of Crimea (dark smoke).

Then Russian patrol ship near Sevastopol in second images, unclear what is going on

Awaiting further clarity Crimea Black SeaImageImage This is very likely same Pr. 22160 class patrol ship seen firing decoys, also today off Sevastopol. #OSINT ImageImage
Aug 3 4 tweets 6 min read
***BREAKING***

#Chinese missile destroyer operating East of #Taiwan this morning. Likely Type-055 Renhai class, described as a cruiser

ID not 100% but agreed probable among multiple experienced #OSINT analysts watching situation ImageImageImage The #Chinese type-055 can carry a range of missiles including a new hypersonic missile provisionally identified as the YJ-21. See hisutton.com/Chinese-Hypers… Image
Aug 3 11 tweets 4 min read
Quick thread on #Chinese submarine capabilities right now. Excuse typos

First up. China has been operating nuclear powered attack submarines, of its own design, since 1970s. Today the main type is the Type-09III (aka 093) SHANG Class (hisutton.com/Chinese-Navy-T…) Chinese submarine 2. These attack subs (SSNs) are generally better than many people would expect. We have seen the steady implementation of newer technologies such as towed sonar arrays and anechoic coatings.

But they are relatively few in number.
Jul 1 6 tweets 2 min read
*Friday thought*

#NATO should bring back standard easy-to-say reporting names for #Russian navy ship classes

And retrospectively apply to Russian types from past 30 years where Russian first of class names were used

E.g. KRYPTO class: @NATO_MARCOM
Jun 30 12 tweets 4 min read
***HOT TAKE***

#Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island. This is important, and it is a significant victory for #Ukraine.

Why...

Thread. Usual caveats. Alternative analysis welcome Snake Island burning First, this is a surprise. I have not seen anyone predicting this.

There is only one way to see it, as a set-back for Russia

The island is strategically important, so giving it up cannot have been an easy decision.

Russian Navy cruiser capturing the island on first day of war:
Jun 30 6 tweets 2 min read
***UPDATE***

Based on multiple sources building up over several days, it appears highly likely that the #Russian Pantsir air defense systems we see in the first photograph, being delivered to Snake Island, has since itself been destroyed by #Ukraine Ref
Jun 29 10 tweets 3 min read
***OSINT***

Thread, today's #Russian Navy Sentinel 2 highlights from around the world.

Trying a new format, instead of marking up a single image, here it is rawer but more..

SLAVA class cruiser leaving Tartus, Syria. Coords 35.08229, 35.37357 Russian Navy cruiser in Med... Great imagery of Tartus itself. Highlight is a UDALOY class destroyer just outside the harbor, with a key auxiliary, Boris Butoma, behind. Coords 34.87855, 35.82933 Image
Jun 28 5 tweets 2 min read
****BREAKING***

Fresh explosions in #berdyansk, Ukraine. Next to wreck of sunken #Russian Navy landing ship (blown up in March).

Reportedly, was not warned so not a planned 'de-mining' operation Explosion Berdyansk
Jun 28 14 tweets 6 min read
**Thread**
These photos are being shared widely on Twitter, mostly just as pretty photos. So, an explanation

They appeared on Telegram and #Russian social media a few days ago.

They show a Pantsir air-defense system being loaded. onto a landing craft...
#OSINT #Ukraine 2
There is an article to go with them, "About the heroism of our warriors in the defense of Serpent's Island: by Andrey GurulevJune 25, 2022 (telegra.ph/O-geroizme-nas…)

It is written from the Russian perspective and some of the 'facts' are in dispute., But it is worth digesting
Jun 24 5 tweets 3 min read
Thread. #OTD in 4 months of the #Ukraine War. Navy #OSINT

Feb 24. World wakes up to invasion. Cruiser Moskva attacks Ukrainian garrison at Snake Island Moskva cruiser snake island Mar 24. Ukraine hits Russian Navy landing ship in Berdyansk. It blows up.

Russia will not continue using the port
Jun 21 4 tweets 3 min read
***BREAKING***

#Russian controlled platform still burning today after #Ukrainian attack yesterday. Slick seen.

This confirms earlier observation of likely slick using lower-resolution satellite imagery. #OSINT

Ref hisutton.com/Burning-Russia… platform burning after Ukra... Earlier today
Jun 17 5 tweets 2 min read
***UPDATE***

Credible reports that the #Russian navy project 22870 Rescue Tug Spasatel Vasily Bekh (SB-739) has been hit and sunk by #Ukrainian navy missiles.

Short thread on why this is important, aside from obvious morale boost for UKR side Despite the seemingly pedestrian label, ‘Rescue Tugs’, are valid military targets and can be important.

They are utility ships and in the context of Snake Island, are used for critical resupply. In many respects they are a higher value target than the warships
Jun 17 4 tweets 5 min read
***BREAKING***

#China has launched the Type-033 aircraft carrier, named Fujian.

This is the first Aircraft Carrier which really rivals the U.S. Navy’s in terms of size.

navalnews.com/naval-news/202… China aircraft carrier launch
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