Thread 1/n Step by step, the war in the Black Sea, month of November 2023 (1 year ago). From my tracker

#OSINT

Nov 4:

#Russian
Pr.22800 Karakurt class corvette 'Askold' struck by Ukrainian missiles at shipyard in Kerch. hisutton.com/Timeline-2022-…

Nov 10 2023: Liberian flagged merchant ship KMAX Ruler hit by Russian AS-17 KTYPTON (Kh-31) anti-radiation missile in port of Odesa

Thread 🧵

**NAVY DECOY SHIPS AND DECEPTION**

Always an interesting topic, we all know about inflatable fake tanks, but it can happen with ships too.

Firstly, fake ships before D-Day:

During WW2 the royal Navy converted some fleet tenders to resemble battleships and a carrier, with the idea being to deceive German Luftwaffe reconnaissance flights.
Before/ after (might be exact same ship, but you get the idea)

2 years ago this month in Russo-Ukraine war in Black Sea, JULY 2022

Short thread 🧵 from

Prelude: June 30 Russia withdraws from Snake Island. The island is strategically located near Ukrainian coast and shipping lanes

#OSINT hisutton.com/Timeline-2022-…


Snake island had been subject to air strikes but Ukraine had also started using MLRS from barges at sea and it was in range of new 155mm artillery being delivered by West, especially the French Caesar system

Top 10 tanks thread🧵

According to my inexpert opinion

10. M60A2 'Starship', USA 🇺🇸
If you don't like this tank, you are going to hate this thread





9.
VT 1-1 tank destroyer, West Germany 🇩🇪

I don't normally post about aircraft, but here are 5 awesome and usual loadouts from the Cold War which really interest me from a design perspective.

In descending order of awesomeness

5. A-5 Vigilante US Navy bomber with nuclear bomb up backside





4. English Electric Lightning. Awesome fighter, could carry ferry tanks in the overwing position. Hard to find photos of this, but it could also carry twin SNEB rocket pods above each with, with fuel tanks behind them (!).

**BREAKING**
Thread 🧵

#Ukrainian strike on #Russian Navy base at Sevastopol in Crimea appears to have damaged, possibly seriously (TBC), the submarine support ship Kommuna (ref ) hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-K…
Video

***UPDATE***

First images of Australia’s new 3D printed extra-large autonomous underwater vehicle (XLAUV), the Ghost Shark. 🧵 This is the previous graphic shared by manufacturer Andruil, when the deal for 3 vehicles was announced. See hisutton.com/Australian-Nav…

Thread 🧵
2 years ago today, Ukraine hit the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva with two Neptune missiles.

At the time it seemed like a spectacular event. But the real story of how Ukraine turned the situation in the Black Sea around was only beginning. #Moskvahisutton.com/Russian-Navy-M… navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

***UPDATE***

Reports that Transnistria (part of Moldova) may request annexation by Russia.

May trigger action from Moldova with #Ukraine help

#Russia realistically unable to intervene, in part because Ukraine has sunk so many of its landing ships in past 2 years

Thread 🧵





From

Mar 24 2022: Russian Navy Alligator class landing ship Saratov explodes while unloading at Berdyansk on Sea of Azov. Possibly hit by a Ukrainian ballistic missile. 2 Ropucha class landing ships manage to escape. hisutton.com/Timeline-2022-…

***BREAKING***

Unconfirmed: #Ukrainian GUR maritime drones (USV) (likely Magura) attacked #Russian Ropucha landing ship Caesar Kunikov in (Цезар Куніков) near Crimea.

Reportedly ship sunk. Awaiting more info.
pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/1… Related

https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/1757647908906598700

**HOT TAKE**

Thread 🧵

Reports that Turkey will allow some #NATO warships through the Bosporus into the Black Sea.

This raises several questions. Still digesting it but sharing some thoughts below. Caveats apply.
#RussianUkrainianWar Context

https://twitter.com/romaniaeconomic/status/1744483410687758343

Quick 🧵 on Turkey not allowing #Ukraine’s 2 new Sandown Class mine hunters to sail to Black Sea

Lots of emotion on here

Yet this is such a non-news, here’s why.. Turkey blocked them under the Montreux Convention, which governs shipping through the Bosporus between Med and Black Sea. So the ships cannot sail to Ukraine.

This was *not* a surprise. As far as I’ve been aware it was already a foregone conclusion

Storm in tea cup

***UPDATE***

1/n 🧵

One year ago today the NordStream pipelines were attacked in the Baltic.

There are many theories. What many do not attempt to do is explain the systematic of presence of #Russian Navy ships, including a submersible mothership, in the vicinity beforehand

2.
There are many theories, some quite fanciful.

Russia has said the British did it, then later changed their mind and agreed with Sy Hersh that the Americans did. Even though you could drive an aircraft carrier through the gaps in that story (it’s nonsense)

***UPDATE***
Thread 1/n

Refined likely damage assessment: this is an ex-submarine

New photos of #Russian navy submarine hit by #Ukrainian cruise missiles in Sevastopol show damage is even worse than previous noted. Photos appear credible. Pressure hull has massive breaches

2.
Damage to rear section near propulsion space, as well as bow area, means basically no hull sections are likely salvageable. Implications are that internals are wrecked along most or whole length of submarine

Note cutaway is port (left)

***UPDATE***

Based on the Airbus satellite images shared by UK MoD, it appears that that #Russian Navy Pr.636.3 Improved-KILO class submarine was hit about here.

Downward penetrating warhead may have penetrated main pressure hull, and almost certainly mangled TT etc. #OSINT

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1702557381501026323

***UPDATE***

Indications are that #Russian Navy KILO class submarine has been hit by #Ukraine in Sevastopol. Unconfirmed at this stage.

This is a big deal.

More info on KILO ->

#OSINT
Thread 1/n hisutton.com/Kilo-Class-Sub…
2.
Imagery already shows a Ropucha Class landing ship on fire. Ru sources suggest two vessels were ‘damaged’

The other is likely a KILO class submarine

**UPDATE**

Following #Ukraine’s systematic attacks on key infrastructure and supply lines to Crimea, #Russia is beginning to show signs its working

Yesterday Ru gov asked hotels etc to report food and fuel stocks
Via @JanR210 < follow this account

Thread 🧵 1/n 2/n
This may be strategically significant both because Crimea is a route to reinforce Ru positions in southern Ukraine, and because Crimea itself is the jewel in itself

There is also a major naval base in Sevastopol

How it started. How it’s going.

In February 2022 #Russia sailed 5 landing ships into Black Sea to support the invasion, including Ropucha class Olenegorsky Gornyak (012)

Now Olenegorsky Gornyak has been hit by a USV and is listing to port
#Ukraine

Ref navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

***BREAKING***

North Korea (DPRK) has shown off a massive new ‘underwater drone’. Several (4?) were paraded through Pyongyang.

It’s a lot like Russia’s Poseidon at first glance

I am on my phone and just seen it, so HOT TAKE caveats apply, but a 🧵

#OSINT Firstly, it *is* a lot like Poseidon ()

It’s similar size (likely smaller and shorter) and has a very similar stern arrangement with folding fins and a ‘pump jet’ (or at least shrouded screw)

Poseidon is a nuclear-powered nuclear-armed torpedo: https://t.co/dNPdtEHLE4hisutton.com/Poseidon_Torpe…

***THREAD***

After withdrawing from Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), #Russia is threatening all ships sailing to #Ukraine controlled ports as legitimate targets. Some ambiguity but threat is clear.

What could Russia actually do though?

Info->

🧵 https://t.co/vXAu8FzVS7hisutton.com/How-Russia-Cou…
The threat, reported in Ru media:
"The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, ships traveling through the Black Sea to the ports of Ukraine will be considered as carriers of military cargo"

"To ports" may also include "from ports"?

***UPDATE***
Here ->

Thread 1/6

The latest #Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) is a modified commercial jet ski. Previously Ukraine used bespoke hulls with jet ski propulsion.

Let's unpack it.
#OSINT https://t.co/2NUtAGyiCxhisutton.com/Ukraine-Mariti…
2/6
The jet ski was apparently involved in the July 16 Sevastopol raid, not the July 18 Kerch Bridge attack. However, it *may* be the same type as in Kerch - see later.

Sorry no better image - welcome to OSINT