Thread by @randymot4

Russia is Losing Badly Part 2
Once again let's look at reliable information that Ukraine is winning. Russian losses have now significantly affected their combat effectiveness. Without an artillery advantge, depleted low-morale units are trying to plug holes in the line.

Russia's defense of Crimea will come down the last important campaign. One critical part will be decided by whether Russia's air defense will hold up. That looks unlikely, since Ukraoine just took out the most modern Russian system, the S400:/1

In another recent clip, Ukraine took out what may be a Panstir air defense system. The operator quickly runs for it when an anti-radiaition missile locks on. Turning off the radar after the lock-on does not stop the missile. /2

Leaked US criticism of Ukrainian tactics has been pushed back by several experts, who defend the Ukrainian battle plan, which is now making major progress./4
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

Ukrainians have penetrated the initial Russian line and there is reason to suspect that subsequent lines will be weaker and more easliyl breached./6

The Ukrainians have been successfully fixing Russian units across the front, incl their reserves. Russian have scrambled to throw units into the widening gap in their line. Many are weak, depleted & green./7

Ukrainian drones have been operating freely on the front & behind the Russian lines. Another example of this appears as they bombed an ammo storage site. This menas that UKR can take out any target in the Russian defense at this point (see RF losses):/8

ISW cited Russian sources reports that Russian morale and supplies are problem all along the front:/8

Ukraine has reached parity or even superiority in some sectors in the artillery battle, which was Russian sole advantage in recent months./9

The widespread attacks of Russian artillery (losses of 1% of their total every day) have also affected their artillery crews, which are now much more poorly commanded./10

The mosrt widespread source of "Russian winning" has been thoroughly debunked as a Russian mouthpiece. Although he is still widely quoted by people who don't check what they link:/11

While the Russian mionfiedls have been the biggets issue for Ukraine, it may now become a problem for Russians as they get pinned in situations pushing them throigh their own minefields./12
msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

The Ukrainian push past Robotyne has breached the first defenses and looks more like it may be the strategic break through:/13

There will be some serious combat in the coming weeks. But by all indexes, Ukraine now has the upper hand & is positioned to make the territorial breakthrough that will mark a major change in the war.

Just in, ISW confirms the Ukrainians have widened the Robtoyne gap.