Thread by @noclador

The Ukrainian strategy is working.

The russians keep moving troops to the center of the Southern Front. Thus they thin out their lines everywhere else. This is opening gaps in the russian front, which the Ukrainians will exploit, when they feel the time is right.
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Until then the Ukrainians are destroying russian forces in the center of the Southern Front with superior Western donated artillery: precision guided munitions like GMLRS, Excalibur, SMArt 155, Bonus to destroy russian equipment and DPICM to annihilate russian personnel.
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It's a meat grinder and the russians are feeding in forces from front sectors they deem "safe". This is why I believe the main Ukrainian advance will not occur, where we have seen fighting over the last two months. In the center of the Southern Front the russians are
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reinforcing their lines... while in other places the russians are thinning out their lines. The Ukrainians have kept at least a dozen brigades in the rear to exploit a breakthrough in the russian lines.
Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro already encounter very little
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russian resistance. Recently the russians moved part of the 76th Air Assault Division from Kremina to the Southern Front meat grinder. Slowly but surely russia is creating opportunities for the Ukrainians to break through the Russian line. It's a question of when not if.
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What Ukraine needs now is a steady stream of precision guided munitions and DPICM 155mm projectiles; and DPICM M26 rockets, M1A1 Abrams tanks, more infantry fighting vehicles and long range missiles - ATACMS would be best, but at least GLSDB should be finally delivered.
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It's a materiel battle and by delivering lots of it we win this war.

Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov keeps saying that Ukraine will soon enter Crimea... and he is correct. Anyone saying "The offensive has failed", is a failed analyst.
Victory is near.
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