I am relaxed about the US ending the rotation of a light brigade through Romania.

Yes, it is bad optics and russia will use it for its propaganda, BUT two armored brigades, a combat aviation brigade, a division artillery, a division sustainment brigade, and a division HQ
1/4 continue to rotate to Poland and the Baltics.

Right now the:
• 3rd Infantry Division HQ (arrived in Poland 4 days ago - photo)
• 1st Armored Brigade, 1st Infantry Division
• 3rd Armored Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division
• 3rd Division Artillery
• 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade
2/4

Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
1/5 could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5

The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
1/40 This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


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https://x.com/noclador/status/1963672692990816364

2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

1/36 These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
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https://x.com/noclador/status/1962651802802770133

• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
1/39 As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
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People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
1/14 backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
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This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12
This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12

Are the American M142 HIMARS and the M270A2 MLRS the best rocket/missile launchers... yes, they are.

Should Europe buy them? No.

Not as long as @LockheedMartin doesn't have a production line IN EUROPE for GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, ATACMS and PrSM missiles... but as long as Europe
1/9
is ordering only itsy-bitsy amounts of missiles, there is no incentive for Lockheed Martin to produce missiles in Europe... which means at any given moment MAGA can deny Europe the needed missiles to defend itself against a russian attack.
So... Europe can either order 10,000
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Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.

8× containers are visible in this image

As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight.
1/6 Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones

But (!) not all compartments likely
2/6

Italy's 61º Stormo received enough of the new T-345A basic jet trainers to begin pilot training this June.

As everyone knows, I am all for growing European militaries and adding capabilities... but why does EVERYTHING have to be with US engines?

Europe must stop buying US
1/22 made kit, components and weapon systems.

The Italian T-345A (left) and the Czech L-39 Skyfox (right) are the only two basic jet trainers currently in production in Europe... and both use a Williams International FJ44-4M turbofan made in Ogden, Utah.

Yes, there are more
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To my American followers: it is time to plan for exile.

Doesn't mean you will have to leave, but based on experiences of Jews fleeing Nazi Germany after 1933 here are a few things to make escape and exile easier:

1) get an up to date passport (the regime might no issue you
1/12 one in the future thus stranding you)
2) if possible get a passport from another nation. It doesn't matter which; just get a passport the regime can't cancel.
3) open bank accounts in a foreign nation (I can't stress this enough! The regime will freeze your American accounts,
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This is the wing, which trains the fighter pilots of 🇧🇪Belgium, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇩🇪 Germany, the 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway and 🇷🇴 Romania.

But all those people are wearing 🇺🇸 US Air Force uniforms... well, of course - the aforementioned countries' fighter pilots are trained by
1/8 the US Air Force's 80th Flying Training Wing based at Sheppard Air Force Base in Texas, which is home to the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training.

Canada, Greece, Italy (pic), Portugal, Spain, Türkiye and the United Kingdom also have the right to train pilots at Sheppard, but
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I am sorry 🇸🇪 Sweden, but I must talk about the Blekinge-class submarine procurement disaster.

Because it exemplifies what happens, when a nation guts its defence budget AND nonetheless demands from its defence industry to deliver cutting edge systems.

This never works!
1/25 Sweden built its first submarine HM Hajen (pic) in 1904.

Since then Sweden continuously built submarines at Kockums' shipyard in Malmö and at the state owned Karlskrona shipyard.

Between December 1954 and December 1988 (34 years) the two yards launched 24 newly built and
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I read the EU's ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 Plan... it's useless as it caps defence spending increases at 1.5% and lasts only for 4 years.

You can tell that the frugals (🇳🇱🇦🇹 etc.) and russian lackeys (🇭🇺) don't care about investing in European defence.

This is mad!
1/12 ReArm allows Eurozone members to request the EU Commission to activate the National Escape Clause from the Eurozone strict 3% budget deficit limit.

Then the European Council votes on it (qualified majority) and after that nations can spend up to 1.5% per year on defence and
2/n

Those of us, who have been at Euromaidan, know that Ukrainians are fearless, fight for freedom, and never surrender.

Even if the US betrays them, they will fight on.

If you ever met a Ukrainian, you would know that.

Trump etc. have no clue, about these people.
1/9 Ukrainians stood their ground and defend their capital against these russian stormtroopers for months... in the deepest winter.

Ukrainians, like the English, Scottish, Welsh and North Irish during the Blitz 1940, never surrender. They will continue the fight even if alone.
2/9

One of the big issues for European navies is General Electric's LM2500 gas turbine... which powers an obscene number of European warships.

Only the 🇬🇧 Royal Navy continued to buy Rolls-Royce gas turbines for its carriers, destroyers and frigates, which is why now Europe
1/13 produces the most advanced gas turbine for warships, namely the Rolls-Royce MT30, which so far has been installed in these classes:

🇬🇧 Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers (2× MT30)
🇬🇧 Type 26 frigates (1× MT30)
🇮🇹 Landing Helicopter Dock "Trieste" (2× MT30)

2/n

Please stop saying Europe should cancel weapons deals with the US.

Yes, we should not sign new weapon deals with the US; but canceling existing deals will hurt Ukraine and also Europe.

And there are 3 reasons for that. Let me explain.

1) Europe's armed forces have nearly
1/19 0 spare equipment, as almost everything taken out of service over the last 35 years was either sold off or scrapped. Europe must continue to support Ukraine and therefore Europe needs to buy whatever weapons it can get it hands on to free up equipment to donate to Ukraine.
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I have to tell you when putin will attack next:

🇬🇧 @Keir_Starmer is NOT increasing defence spending this year.

🇬🇧 @Keir_Starmer is NOT increasing defence spending next year.

🇬🇧 @Keir_Starmer is increasing defence spending FROM (!) April 2027 by 0.2%.

This means that for
1/7 the next two years the British Armed Forces get nothing. They will remain as broken as they are.

The British Army has 78,000 troops of which just 18,000 are combat capable (the remaining 60,000 (= 77%) lack the materiel, training, equipment, etc. to be useful).
2/7

Yesterday I posted a thread about American weapons and components in fighter aircraft and how Europe has to wean itself off them.

Today let's look at transport, tanker, maritime patrol, and airborne early warning aircraft.
(Tomorrow then trainer aircraft and drones)
1/25 Transport aircraft come in two sizes: for strategic airlift or tactical airlift.
Simplified: strategic airlift transports materiel between continents and tactical airlift within a theater of operations.
For strategic airlift the choice for Europe is easy: A400M Atlas, because
2/n

Let's talk about American weapons and how Europe has to wean itself off them.
Part 1 of a long thread; this one looking at fighter jets.

First and foremost: Europe has to get all American made components out of all weapon systems produced in Europe. If Trump can shut down a
1/24 European production line by withholding a component, then that component has to replaced... and if that is impossible, then that weapon system has no future and production has to end.
As for the F-35... Europe has nothing even close in combat capability. Best course will be
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The Gripen was designed by Sweden for Sweden's Bas 90 air base system and - truly - Sweden built the perfect fighter for Sweden's Bas 90 system... which resulted in a fighter no one but Sweden needs.

Bear with me as I explain a few things @Saab doesn't want you to know.
1/29 Bas 90 was developed in the 1970s, when the Swedish Air Force was flying the Viggen (and some upgraded Draken). Bas 90 consisted of some 30+ reserve air bases with a 2,000+ metres (6,600+ ft) long main runway and 2-3 short runways of 800 metres (2,600 ft).
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