Oh my goodness, this:
"...many supplies are transported by car",
has a huge numbers of implications for Russian logistics.🤯
Russian De-motorization, Arriving🧵
1/
Civilian cars are very poor load carriers for the fuel used.
Yes, Russia is a petro-state, but you still have to move the gasoline, not diesel, to run the cars.
Russia has to be short of something to use cars in lieu of tactical or semi-tractor trailers to Mariupol.
2/
We have been seeing Russian Ural "Scooby vans," or "Loafs" as some call them, for over a year in the tactical supply distribution role.
Semi-tractor trailers have been used statically & operationally for almost as long.
3/
Using cars as strategic logistical transportation to Mariupol represents a fleet wide level of operational attrition affecting both tactical trucks like the Kamaz and Semi-Tractor trailer rigs.
That common denominator spells tire shortages.
4/
We know at the beginning of the war Russia had ill maintained, sunlight aged, s--t tires from China on its missile launcher and tactical truck fleet.
5/
To use civilian cars in the long haul strategic transport role to Mariupol from Rostov-on-the-Don means a horrific level of operational attrition representing the 'de-motorization' of the Russian Economy is happening in real time.
6/6 End
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