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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
🥥🌴🌊☕️Coffee&Robots🤖🌊🥥🌴🇺🇦 Profile picture Lenny Marlow Profile picture Homac Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture DA Profile picture 453 subscribed
Jul 22 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
It appears that @JDVance1 public refusal to debate V.P. Harris on the grounds of:

"We don't know who the Democratic Party Presidential nominee will be,"

... is looking very common sense, which is a very uncommon thing to say about any US Senator.🤨🤔

Jacksonian populism🧵
1/ While I utterly despise @JDVance1 public statements on Ukraine...

...the collapse of the @JoeBiden candidacy reinforces his "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate brand at the expense of Democratic Party's negative campaigning with non-Democrats, and the working class generally.

2/ Image
Jul 21 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is exactly the what the losing side in a war does when undergoing Lanchester Square collapse.⬇️

Just like the way Japanese & German air forces in WW2 collapsed from a lack of skilled replacement pilots and mechanics.

1/ The rate of increase of Russian ground force casualties tracks a collapse of skills from the attrition of competent Russian officers without a Russian training establishment capable of replacing them.

The "Next 100k" of Russian casualties always happens faster.

2/ Image
Jul 20 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
I've really happy with the AFU's increasingly effective drone counter-air efforts and the drone swarm strike Millerovo air base near Rostov-on-Don underlines this improvement.

1/
 Lanchester Smiles🧵

en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian…
Image The AFU are learning, refining their tactics, weaponeering, and targeting.

This Millerovo air base strike appears to have involved 2 dozen or more OWA Drones/propeller cruise missiles.

That is about the right number one drone per desired mean point of impact (DMPI).

2/
Jul 20 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Wake me up when Israel systematically destroys electric power generating capability and drops sea mines at the ports in Houthi controlled Yemen.

That is when I'll know the Israeli coalition government is serious in addressing the Houthi threat.

ISO fuel tank blindness🧵
1/ ISO container fuel tanks can be shipped in via Iran and fix this damage in weeks.

2/ Image
Jul 19 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
This is a wonderful thread by @DWB55 dealing with human porter logistics in the South West Pacific Theater.⬇️

But wait, there's more!

1/
MacArthur's SWPA is one of the least studied Theater of WW2 in terms of signals, electronic warfare, and littoral logistics.

I did a 2020 thread laying much of that out.
2/
Jul 17 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Yes, the head of the USSS really is gaslighting the heck out of the American public over her agency's incompetence, rather than resigning like she should.

Federal agencies, like Russian propagandists, use a "firehose of falsehoods" to confuse the...

Fed lying two-step🧵
1/ ...audience & fragment any emerging consensus on what should be done. That way none of them get fired.

Incompetence led to negligence that created an opportunity for a nut hearing Ross Perot in his fillings to take a shot.

Admitting either incompetence or negligence...

2/
Jul 17 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
It's nice to someone at the Economist finally got around to reading Nadin Brzezinski's July 17, 2022 article "Logistics Collapse" about the lack of Russian artillery barrel specialty steel

The death of the Russian God of War🧵
1/
 nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-coll…

Image ...or low production capability with that subpar steel.

That we are seeing Russian artillery tube mass burn out now was absolutely predictable years ago.

I was talking about it being a limiting factor in the summer of 2022.

2/
Jul 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Where we are here because the head of the USSS didn't immediately resign:

"...it’s just a question of active malice at worst vs spiteful incompetence at best."

This will have mid-term effects leading to a new political spoils hiring system for the Federal Civil Service.

1/ Diversity, Equity and Inclusion hiring objectives in the Federal Civil Service picks AGAINST professional merit.

That is, D.E.I. is not professional. It is a form of political spoils system.

There is a reason for the meme that DEI stands for "Didn't Earn It."

2/
Jul 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
>>Chinese PLA: "You need to use forklifts and pallets. There are huge manpower savings and cargo productivity advantages in using them"

>>Russians: "Why? Mobiks are good enough and always more mobiks backs where those came from."

1/ >>Chinese PLA: Seriously?!?

>>Russians: Seriously, comrade.

2/
Jul 15 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The videos of the USSS catastrophic failure during the assassination attempt on former President Trump are beyond control and are utterly toxic for public trust that the Federal government is fair and has institutional competency.

(Image H/T @Peoples_Pundit)
1/ Image A public mea culpa would have been the smart play for the USSS bureaucracy.

Instead we are getting the gaslighting that we always see from Feds that are engaged in bureaucratic group narcissism and the institutional failure that groupthink dictates.

2/ Image
Jul 15 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
A derailed Russian train with the freight car truck thrown out from under the freight cars?

The vast majority of train derailments happen in rail yards where the average train speed is about five MPH/eight KMH.**

Russian railway bearing derailment watch🧵

(**See: ! )
1/aar.org/issue/derailme… Having one of these railway car trucks detach from a rail car at five MPH/eight KMH seems a bit...energetic?

Are we seeing now seeing evidence of imported railway bearing wear out issues appearing?

2/
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r…
Image
Jul 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Look,

US Military intelligence did not pick up on the lack of forklifts and pallets in Russian artillery logistics for 80 years because Russia strong™️ got you promoted.⬇️

A US intelligence careerism on Russia & China🧵
1/ Even when the 1980's Soviet army in Afghanistan showed 80% of every truck lift spent 80% of the time manually loading and unloading could not penetrate Russia strong™️ careerism.

2/
Jul 12 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Well, well, well, the Russians are reading WW2 V-1 air defense history to try and beat the OWA Drone threat.

From a WW2 historian POV, it's nice to see at least one military institution in the world that is capable of doing its WW2 military history due diligence.🙄

1/ The air defense history of London versus the German V-1 buzz bomb to be specific.

Nothing in the Cold War era matched it and it is little studied in US military professional military education compared to the relevance it has...

2/
Image
Jul 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It has been apparent for some time that Ukraine was doing both remote road and coast watching in Russian occupied Ukrainian territories.

The operational pattern is easy to spot if you have the historical template.

24/7 road watching by drone🧵
1/ The primary role of the Philippine resistance for MacArthur was coast watching and a large fraction of the 58 Alamo Scout missions in the 1945 Luzon campaign were for road watching behind Japanese lines.

Drones make this a whole lot easier.

2/ Image
Jul 11 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Barrage Balloons destroyed 232 V-1's representing 5.86% of all V-1's downed in defense of London.

It was a lot of effort for the results, but one in 20 V-1's is not "nothing."

Whether hanging nets from balloons works for drones is a question.

1/
 Military Balloon & E.W.🧵
Image Certainly we would see a lot of collateral damage to birds by hanging lightweight nets from balloons.

In WW2 there were offensive uses for balloons with the UK's "Operation Outward" strategic balloon bombing aimed at the European energy grid. (link⬇️)

2/
Jul 10 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I've been warning "people" that the Iranian-Houthi blockade of the Suez would have a massive supply chain inflationary shock in the USA, just in time for the Nov 2024 election, since January 2024.

Maritime J-I-T Supply Chain Collapse, 2024 edition🧵

1/ See here:

2/
Jul 10 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I've been warning "people" that the Iranian-Houthi blockage of the Suez would have a massive supply chain inflationary shock in the USA, just in time for the Nov 2024 election, since January 2024.

Maritime J-I-T Supply Chain Collapse, 2024 edition🧵
1/ See here:

2/
Jul 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Anyone who has paid attention to Biden Administration "Escalation Management" doctrine since the Russo-Ukrainian War began is completely unsurprised by this.

US & German "Escalation Managers" want to revoke all previous NATO Summits

DC Escalation Management NATO Summit🧵
1/ ...and return Ukraine to its Apr. 2008 Bucharest Summit status as far as accession to NATO is concerned.

That is, -IF- Ukraine will join NATO, not a matter of when, as established in recent NATO conferences.

US & German fear of Russia is absolute.

2/
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
Jul 8 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The idea that:

"Camouflage will save Artillery from drones” just got hit in the breach block.

Quadcopter drones can stalk you through trees and brush like a mine carrying suicidal infantryman that can fly.

Drone War HR🧵
1/ There is no such thing as cover or dead ground for infantry, artillery, or armor to hide from FPV drones.

"Cover" consists of actively sensing if you are in radio line of sight of an operational drone.


2/
Jul 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
White smoke is gasoline.

Black smoke is jet fuel.

This was Ukrainian inflatable MIG-29 decoy whose gasoline generator fuel tank blew up.

Reading the smoke is not just for Catholics🧵
1/ This is a stock jet fuel fire image from a fire fighting exercise, note the black smoke.

2/ Image
Jul 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Barrage balloons killed a number of V-1's in defense of London. So they are not worthless.

They are a lot of effort for little results, but it is a visible political reminder that the air defense is "doing something."

1/ During the W2 the British defense against the V-1 shot down or destroyed 3,957 in the following proportions:

Fighters - 1,847;
Antiaircraft Artillery - 1,878;
Barrage Balloons - 232.

232 represent 5.86% of all V-1's downed. One in 20 V-1's is not "nothing."

2/ Image