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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
🥥🌴🌊☕️Coffee&Robots🤖🌊🥥🌴🇺🇦 Profile picture Homac Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture DA Profile picture Geoff B Profile picture 468 subscribed
Oct 1 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
These appear to be long range heavy MLRS of 240 mm to 400 mm diameter rather than "ballistic missiles."

1/ Heavy MLRS like the Chinese PLA, 350 km range, PCL191 erases the distinction between short range ballistic missiles & guided MLRS.

It is unclear exactly what the real ranges range of Iranian Heavy MLRS are given Chinese technology transfers.
2/
Oct 1 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
Just...no. That's bad analysis.

One of the spaces @secretsqrl123 had with @RyanO_ChosenCoy present. He made clear Ukrainian FPV drones based on Hollywood camera multi-copters have a 50 km one way range.

The other issue is the disintermediation of drones from platforms.
1/
Image "Disintermediation" means any shipping container or flat space on a vessel/vehicle works as a launcher.

A ISO container with 126 drones can be stacked on a 24 X 24 top level of a Chinese MGX-24 container ship and lob 72,576 drones in a simultaneous wave 50 km or more.

2/ Image
Sep 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Missiles are structurally strong nose to tail because, rocket acceleration. Side to side missile structure is as weak/light as possible for performance reasons.

Railway gondola cars moving missiles like this rattles them side to side like beans in a maraca.😱

1/3 Things like the Russian SAM malfunction you see below happen for reasons, some of them involving long distance railway transportation.

2/3
Sep 30 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This seems to be my day to kick the cognitive bias blind spot failures of Western intelligence.

This time on casualty ratios due to 💩 Russian military medical care.

The horrible thermite injuries in the video below will likely produce lots of preventable fatalities.
1/ It takes 40 hours for RuAF casualties to reach medical care equivalent to a battalion aid station.

The odds are RuAF field hospitals will not be able to control the infections that thermite burns generate, because they don't evacuate quickly enough.
2/

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Sep 23 • 31 tweets • 11 min read
Given the latest failure of the Russian Sarmat ICBM...

...it is time to ask some hard questions about the combat readiness of the RU nuclear triad.

Extraordinary claims of Russian nuclear readiness now require extraordinary evidence🧵
1/ This is the 4th failed test attempt of the "combat operational" RS-28 Sarmat Heavy ICBM.

The RS-28 is a derivative of the original R-36M / SS-18 which was Ukrainian built and maintained until 2014.

2/
Sep 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This is no surprise.

People saying Ukrainians could not maintain F-16's were and remain utter fools and tools for people who want Ukraine to lose.🤢🤮

1/
Image I've been saying this about the maintenance capabilities of the PSU for years.

They have an economy that is deeply penetrated by computers because of their egalitarian wealth distribution.

This makes US F-16 style two level maintenance easy peasy.
2/
Sep 18 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This Foreign Policy article did not age well:

The False Promise of Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Into Russia By Stephen Biddle, Foreign Affairs:
“Hitting Faraway Targets Will Not Tip the Balance of the War”

1/ The combination of technological/logistical incompetence, economic ignorance, and military-historical illiteracy as Stephen Biddle dropped in that article makes me despair about the competence of the US national security experts versus drone airpower.


2/
Sep 15 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
This is the visual representation of "Meaconing" style jamming. ⬇️

Per Wikipedia:

"Meaconing is the interception and rebroadcast of navigation signals. These signals are rebroadcast on the received frequency,

1/ ...typically with power higher than the original signal, to confuse enemy navigation. Consequently, aircraft or ground stations are given inaccurate bearings."

A more technical explanation of Meaconing is at the link below⬇️

2/
 wasyresearch.com/meaconing-the-…
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian military manpower stupidity like this⬇️

1/
Image ...and like this...⬇️



2/ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/390…
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Biden-Sullivan Administration has nine Congressional work days left to process it's remaining billions of Presidential Drawdown Authority.

I expect it to fail to do anything because the DC "De-Escalation" crowd wants Ukraine to lose.

1/
Image The DC escalation manager arse-wipes are happy to backstab their own party to self-promote.

If I weren't a 33 & 1/3 year DoD quality bureaucrat, it would boggle my mind.

But I've seen careerist stuff like this far too often⬇️

2/
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If ever there was an example of self destructive groupthink...

...it is is Biden-Sullivan Administration National Security Council effort to trash Ukraine that damages the Democrats at a multiplicity of levels.

1/ @JakeSullivan46, Kirby etc. are digging their heels in.

They are so deep into carteerist cover your assets (CYA) they are happy to burn Harris/Walz campaign buy creating Russian sanctuaries from which to launch genocidal strikes on Ukrainian civilians
2/
 reuters.com/world/no-chang…
Sep 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Biden-Sullivan Administration statements like this will not help VP Harris with Ukrainian-American voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan.🤢🤮⬇️

1/ You have to wonder at this point if Pres. Biden wants Trump to win, given how the Pentagon media flack is stomping all over VP Harris's political advertising.

2/2
 politico.com/newsletters/na…
Sep 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is an interesting post, not just for what happened to the @LarrySchweikart account, but because for some reason you can't see the bookmark addition (N to N+1) of this post

But it showed up in my bookmarks...strange.

It is not the only thing strange here.

1/ The @LarrySchweikart account received this notice from an account on X that was phishing other accounts and taking them over for blackmail money.

2/ Image
Sep 10 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This still from the Russian video below is what American lawyers call "...an admission against interest."

The Russian tank shell logistics supply chain is short of fuzes for high explosive shells, lots of reasons.

RuAF logistical dysfunction with HE shells & fuzes🧵
1/
Image Military explosive charges are built in stages.

That is, the fuze is a chain of very small/volatile explosives (primer & detonator), to a bigger less sensitive charge in the fuze (booster) to set off the main explosive charge.

A fuze is the most expensive part of a shell.

2/
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Sep 8 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Pay very close attention to this requiem on Russian mortar shell logistics in the age of drones.

Moving mortar shells to a position close to the front under FPV drones kills those moving the shells in a continuous metronome.

Logistical Professionalism🧵
1/
Image "Amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics."

It is the unprofessional silence of the Field Artillery crowd on X about shell motor transport logistics in the age of drones that impeaches them.⬇️

2/ Image
Sep 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The moral collapse of the Biden-Sullivan Administration is now complete.

They are providing Russia an "ATACMS Sanctuary" for genocidal attacks on the Ukrainian civilian populations.

It is a de facto political alliance with Evil.

1/ @jakeSullivan and Finer have one agenda - save Russia from itself.

Russia started this war as a colonial "Special Military Operation" to exterminate Ukrainian political/intellectual elites, which has now extended to a policy of Ukrainian genocide⬇️

2/
Sep 7 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
There are times in the Russo-Ukrainian War I really want to "head desk" at some of the stupid I've seen as a military historian.

One of those things is barge logistics.😖

A thing I have been hammering on for years on X...

1/
 newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-f…
Image ...along with trucks and Ukraine notices just now?!?

WTF, over...🤦‍♂️

Nazi Marinefährprahm (MFP, naval ferry barge) were key logistical units of the Germans in the Baltic, Black, North and Mediterranean seas.


2/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinef%C…


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Sep 3 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
This X post From @Prune602 I've pasted below is from a long & crunchy data filled thread looking at the crashing Russian railway system capacity.

The thread is screaming several things at me about AFU strategic bombing strategy and its objective for the Russian economy.

1/
Image The biggest "Ah-Hah!" in the thread was the observation that the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and depots were less an oil campaign than a transportation campaign aimed at sucking up Russian rail capacity.

>>"Oil & Oil (Petroleum Products),

2/ Image
Sep 2 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
At 1,300 KIA/MIA a day, the Russians lose all the ground combat elements of a Russian division a week.

The drop in Russian artillery losses from 70 to 10 a day reflects either fewer tubes being used or an unwillingness to expose tubes w/o heavy drone jamming covering them.

1/ I am struggling to think of a post WW2 campaign with loss rates of a division per week.

Maybe the 1980's Iranian marsh offensives Iran-Iraq war?

Yet this is a material truth has not put a dent into the convictions in the DC elites around the Biden-Sullivan Administration

2/

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Sep 2 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
What is the thing that stands out the most in this Moscow video of an AFU drone striking a Russian refinery _IN_DAYLIGHT_?

IT'S WHAT'S MISSING.

Consider: Where are the VKS fighter jets?

Where Russian Drone Defense vs AFU strategic drone bombing🧵
1/ Ukrainian PSU Mig-29's are downing Shaheed's in daylight.

Where are the Russian fighter jets over Moscow?

2/
Sep 1 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
It appears the Ukrainian Kusk incursion has been accompanied by a new Security Service of Ukraine fixed wing FPV drone called the Gray Widow-1 that has a range of 50 km to stop Russian road & rail traffic.

AFU's Cut Rate Lancet in Kursk🧵
1/


Image
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Image The twin engine Gray Widow-2 was shown in the same article.

It is unclear what the range/payload of the FPV/loitering munition will be, but something significantly over 52 km is a good guess.

2/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/a-batc…
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