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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
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Apr 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Please compare this Mig-29 100m^2 front facing radar cross section fail...

1/ ...To this front end view of the Russian Su-57.

Those radar blocking covers reduce Su-57 engine performance when the Russians most need it for non-afterburner supercruise performance.

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Apr 23 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This is a Ukrainian balloon bombing thread is interesting on a number of levels.

Both the UK and the Imperial Japanese engaged in strategic balloon bombing in WW2.

Balloon bombing🧵
1/ The first was the UK's Operation Outward. It was noticed after a windstorm during 1940's Battle of Britain that barrage balloons dragging severed cables under them caused shorts on power lines, damaging the power grid in occupied Europe.

2/
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Apr 21 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The extra $300 million for the F-22 buys superior "bow tie" stealth capability, more reliable engines, and a much better radar system.⬇️

The Su-57 is a "Pac man" style stealth system like the F-35.

Cost effective stealth🧵
1/
Image Russia's Su-57 uses a drop down blocking engine device rather than a full S-shaped engine inlet like the Chinese J-20 (below right) or the F-22.

2/
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Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
The longer range 5V28 missile of the S-200/SA-5 Gammon have a reported range of 345 km against a Mach 3(+) SR-71 class target.

A Kh-22 missile carried by the Tu-22M bomber, NATO code named"Backfire" has only a 290 km stand off range.

S-200/SA-5🧵
1/ This would be the 2nd reported downing of a Tu-22M by an S-200. The earlier Tu-22M being in December 2023.

It looks like these Tu-22M are still using Soviet era EW suites which were not geared against the S-200 C-Band, 100 KW, 5N62 Square Pair FMCW tracker/illuminator.
2/
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Apr 18 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Between ~1996 and 2005, most FMTV trucks accepted by DCMA for the US Army had my signature on the truck property forms along with my DSN phone number.

I got three or four calls in Sealy Texas from NCO's in Iraq trying to score ballistic composite glass armor because they stopped these EFP attacks⬇️

1/ DCMA Sealy was getting photos from contractor relatives of bombed FMTV's with sheet metal armor and receiving IED damaged trucks to get rebuilt.

You could tell the blast damage from how the windows were missing and the roofs were bowed at the top.

2/

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Apr 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Iran's campaign to suppress Israel's ballistic missile defenses is underway.

Air Defense is a combined arms form of warfare. Western militaries have forgotten this since 1989, see⬇️

Every Patriot or Iron Dome radar needs its own dedicated gun based point defense in the age of drones and indirect fire ATGMs.

1/ Locating Patriot/Iron Dome/S-400 class radars is easy peasy lemon squeezy.

You can use commercial synthetic aperture radar satellites and on-line radar interference tracking tools.

2/
Apr 17 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
The thing that has deeply bothered me about this RuAF Tsar-shed tank with jammer and the earlier "Pallet Jammer" tank is the complete lack in any public analysis of the mention of Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC).

You can't throw radio-electronic systems together and expect them to work properly.

EMC🧵
1/Image I have spend too many hours on too many days outside an Anechoic RF chamber with EMC test procedures and fiddly oscilloscopes to miss the fact that the drone jamming systems the Russians have deployed on tanks in Ukraine are missing such testing.

Corrugated steel doesn't an effective R/F ground plane make.🙄

2/
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Apr 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
While the primary historical mission of the Section 22 special interest group in mapping military history archives is over.

The secondary mission to 'spread the historical wealth' on Japanese radar capabilities in WW2 marks a major achievement.

Daniel Schaefer just successfully defended his doctoral thesis.⬇️

1/
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Image The thesis of newly minted History PhD Daniel Schaefer goes into detail showing how many US Navy carrier planes were lost over Tanapag Harbor at Saipan - due to a Mark 4 Model 3 gun fire-control radar overlooking it -

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Apr 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Iran had hard limits in the number of competent launch crews.

The shut down and reopening of Iranian air space was likely Iran discovering how badly their planning was dancing with Miss Rosey Scenario as far as time on target drone & missile launches were concerned.

1/ The additional 24 to 36 hours was the competent IRGC crews checking the work of the noobs and proxies for this strike in progress.

Senator Rubio was briefed on all the additional drone launch sites that radio traffic associated with the competent crews revealed.

2/
Apr 7 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
English Translation:

"Today, the RussiaNoContext channel published a video from the phone of the Russian military, who filmed the first consequences after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP and rejoiced at this act of ecocide against Ukraine.

1/ We will remind that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP was carried out by the Russian occupying forces, the military of the Russian Federation from the 205th Infantry Brigade, around 2:50 a.m. on June 6, 2023.

2/
Mar 24 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Regarding this:

>>no significant damage to the ships is visible.

Fragmentation damage is rarely visible from satellite photos.

The photo intelligence analysts in WW2 hated the use of aerial fragmentation munitions for exactly that reason.

Limits of photo BDA🧵
1/ Aerial bomb fragmentation damage could only be really be captured immediately after detonation...

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Mar 23 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
1/ The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

2/
Mar 22 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com site has a new piece up titled:

"Russia: Can Russia Continue the War After 2024?"


Russian Lanchester Square collapse indicators🧵

1/strategypage.com/qnd/russia/art… "March 20, 2024: Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are
Mar 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Regarding the Biden Administration "Controlled leak" in the FT.

Russia has contributed only about 8% of global refined fuel exports at max,per the CIA.

When Russia chooses to export, which it hasn't since February 2024.

1/5
 cia.gov/the-world-fact…
The Jake Sullivan run Biden Adm. NSC's whole FT argument that Ukraine should stop plinking Russian refineries to prevent "oil market instability" is utter nonsense.

The Iranian sponsored Houthi blockade of the Suez has a much much larger "oil market instability" impact.

2/5
Mar 22 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It has been Biden Administration Russo-Ukrainian War policy to keep the Russian energy sector intact for Western economies.

Ukrainian victory has always been a 3rd tier consideration of Biden's "De-Escalationist" foreign policies behind preserving the Russian energy sector.
1/ What the Biden Adm. did with the UK Financial Times article blotivating about Ukrainian drone strikes was make the strategic mistake of telling the absolute truth that Russian oil is more important to them than Ukrainian victory and European security.

2/
Mar 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Translated from Ukrainian:

"Along with the Russian oil refineries, which should no doubt continue to be struck, Ukraine has a number of other easy targets. We are talking about railway transformer substations - their destruction will greatly spoil the logistics of the

1/6
Image ...occupiers. We show the location on the infographic."

FYI -

I strongly suspect the Biden Adm. has been pressuring the Zelensky gov't not to strike Russia's electric train power grid.

2/6
Mar 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The price the Biden Administration is paying for cutting Ukraine off from U.S. artillery ammunition is zero leverage in Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries.

It also underlines the fact continued Russian oil production is more important to Biden than Ukraine's victory
1/ What is driving energy inflation isn't Ukraine striking Russian refineries.

Russia isn't exporting distillates. It stopped doing so in February 2024 (See link).

Russian crude exports are still going, if reduced by Western oilfield disinvestment

2/aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27…
Mar 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The inability of the DoD to accept the implications of this FPV drone proliferation for its light infantry power projection forces will get a lot of US soldiers & marines killed.

There aren't enough networked guns, sensors & jammers moving through the procurement system

1/
Image ...geared for the first wave of Paradrop and Heli dropped light infantry.

When I look at the US Army's Airborne Squad vehicle in the age of FPV drones...

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Mar 20 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Those who have been following the evolution of drone-on-drone combat know it will not stop with Russians killing Baba-Yaga drones that are extending FPV line of sight radio range.

Very few actual AFU drone crews are being engaged & killed by the Russians.

1/ Meanwhile, many Russian drone crews _ARE_ being hunted and killed by Ukraine.

These are UAS air superiority battles appearing right before our eyes - as Douhet talked about with manned planes a century ago.

The US fighter pilot union is in deep denial about that and the

2/
Mar 18 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The power of the "October 1973 Arab-Israeli War AFV design memo" is seen with the survival of this Ukrainian Abrams Tank Crew.

AFV Design 🧵
1/ I've mentioned this a few times on X.

Here:
2/
Mar 17 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
This thread is important in examining Russian artillery trends, but not quite for the reasons examined in the thread.

The issue for Russian artillery going forward isn't the shells, it's the barrel life.

Artillery History & the Russo-Ukrainian War🧵

1/ Winston Churchill's "The World Crisis" on WW1 talked not only about the 1915 "Shell Crisis" but also a lesser known 1917 artillery tube crisis.

It wasn't until 1918 that both shells & tubes were balanced to generate German complaints of "Materialschlacht" facing British

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