Trent Telenko Profile picture
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
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May 23 12 tweets 5 min read
Donbas Logistics & truck🧵

If you have been following the fighting at Popasna in the Donbas. This map is the most important, in my opinion.

Given the attrition of the Russian truck fleet, rail lines are vital for Russian logistics.

This map series from @Nrg8000 has them.
1/ I've laid down in another thread why I think paying a great deal of attention to rail lines are important for the Russian offensive push out of Popasna.

With the right kind of modified trucks, which the Russians have...
2/
May 22 26 tweets 8 min read
That is a big "ouch" for Russian artillery fire support intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance capability👇

This is a "Combat drones in Ukraine lessons learned" thread related to the realities of that "ouch!"🧵
1/ By way of comparison, the US Army plans for 12 UAV units of 12 each Grey Eagle UAV's, aka 144 Grey Eagle UAV's for its entire army.

Losing 50 Grey Eagles in combat would be 35% of the US Army's entire planned fleet and likely 50% of all...

2/
army-technology.com/projects/mq1c-…
May 21 20 tweets 5 min read
21st century artillery tech🧵, it gonna be a real ride.

So far OSINT points to the LMM Martlet MANPADS to be the most consistent killer of Russian Orlan-10 drones.

Every Ukrainian M777 towed gun battery needs a team armed with one of these to cover them👇
1/ There is a good reason for my statement, which you can see in this video.

Not long after the Ukrainian M777 opened fire, a Russian Orlan-10 showed up and vectored in a loitering munition faster than Russian centralized...
2/
May 20 23 tweets 6 min read
This is going to be a logistical thread 🧵on the Russian drive into and through Popasna in Donbas, with some Gen Douglas MacArthur & military social history thrown in.

Pay attention to the rail lines in this map. It will be important for the rest of the thread.

1/ Popasna is a north-south & east-west rail switching yard.

Russia's drive into Popasna marked a changed operational pattern by the Russian Army in Donbas. The changed pattern was the Russian Army had sufficient artillery ammunition tonnage to make headway against Ukrainian

2/
May 17 8 tweets 2 min read
If true, this UK Guardian article is seriously important at the political-military level.🧵

Short form:

Putin is playing troop commander instead of President of the Russian Federation.

1/
theguardian.com/world/2022/may… What that means is as follows:

1. Putin is not doing his job as President.
2. Putin is not paying attention to his own personal security.
3. Putin is preventing competent Russian military commanders from doing anything right.

2/
May 17 4 tweets 2 min read
@TheStudyofWar The Russian lack of infantry dismounts in their heavily mechanized & "Ghost Soldier" ridden Motor-Rifle Regiments means they cannot hold back wide front Ukrainian infantry infiltration that has superior Western night vision gear.

In the day the Ukrainians use drones to spot
1/
@TheStudyofWar ...Russian AFV check points. Then at night the Ukrainians infiltrate where Russians are not.

Then the next day Ukrainian infantry use drone directed artillery to kill the check points. Thus forcing Russian vehicle movement into the infiltrated missile teams.

Rinse & repeat.
2/
May 16 6 tweets 7 min read
@HN_Schlottman @KofmanMichael @KC_Guy ,@HN_Schlottman as @teuraskarju pointed out, Soviet/Russian logistical doctrine always assumed sufficient manual labor will magically appear to meet 'standards'

This magical thinking is akin to the Russian assumption that a 70% manned MR-Regiment could generate two 100% BTG
1/
@HN_Schlottman @KofmanMichael @KC_Guy @teuraskarju Since two fully manned BTG are 66% of a nominally 70% manned regiment, Russian doctrine was B.S.

The sort of load & unload rates US Army trucks achieve is through the heavy use of boxes, pallets, flatracks, containers, and mechanized material handling equipment built into trucks
May 16 9 tweets 3 min read
This is a pretty important question I'll try and answer.👇

Thread🧵

1/ The lethal effects of artillery were not put on a really scientific basis until WW2.

There were lots of reasons for this involving money & politics I won't go into.

When the operational analysts to their first bite. They made charts like this mapping fragment impacts.
2/
May 16 23 tweets 6 min read
It looks like @PhillipsPOBrien just saved me a really long thread measuring my predictions versus on the ground reality regards Russian trucks.

Let's do a different logistical-history thread🧵instead.

1/
ALEX VERSHININ Nov 2021 article on Russian truck logistics has proven to be the 'Logistical Bible' of this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

2/
May 15 5 tweets 4 min read
@RandomAcademic @sjellmann If you have not read Lester W. Grau & Charles K. Bartle's "The Russian Reconnaissance Fire Complex Comes of Age." Now is the time to go look it up with an internet search.

UAV artillery spotting tactics are universal, and the Ukrainians are better at it than the Russians.
1/ @RandomAcademic @sjellmann This is mainly because the existential threat of Russian invasion focused the Ukrainian military on "good enough today" is better than "perfect next year."

That means Ukrainian artillery spotting drones cost between 1/10th and 1/100th what a similar drone costs
2/
May 14 30 tweets 7 min read
This thread🧵 will be my Ukraine War overview.

Russia is losing 2/3 of a battalion combat group of equipment a day and we are into day 79.

That's over 52.6 full battalion equipment sets out of the 120 initially sent into Ukraine & ~180 over all in the Russian Ground Forces

1/
IOW, 43% of the total committed Russian mechanized combat vehicle fleet and likely the best 29% of the total Russian combat vehicle fleet have been destroyed or captured.

Percentage casualty rate wise, this is the institutional equivalent of the III Armored Corps in Ft Hood
2/
May 13 6 tweets 2 min read
This video tells you a lot, and not just about the vulnerability of a fully loaded T-80.🧵

Look at the road damage where the T-80 exploded and where it's turret landed.

That is going to require significant pavement replacing and repairing section where the turret landed.
1/ This Ukrainian road is raised above the countryside because the soil under the road had to be engineered/graded in several layers of rock, gravel & sand to support that road weight & not to melt into the countryside during a mud season.

2/
May 12 4 tweets 1 min read
If you are not watching developments in Sri Lanka. Start now.

This is what "food insecurity" really means.

This is why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has world wide effects, because losing Ukraine's grain exports prices food too high for poor folks less developed nations.
1/ The world's food & fuel supplies are all interconnected.

Losing Ukraine's grain exports, and much of Russian energy exports, utterly rapes the food security of the Global South.

Natural resources China & the West rely upon for their industries from the Global South

2/
May 12 4 tweets 1 min read
This map was direct messaged to me and was taken from a forum. It is a heat map of Russian SIM cards roaming Ukrainian cellphone networks. Logistics Thread🧵

This is symbolic of several things.

1. Why you have to take away cellphones from your troops before battle.
1/ Image 2. What Ukraine knows about Russian troops movements.

3. The collapse of the good order and discipline of the Russian Army, because every single Russian soldier knows a cellphone collected by the Army is a cellphone stolen.

Especially when you stole it from Ukrainians 1st.
2/
May 11 17 tweets 5 min read
Very Nice.

Ukraine's new M777 155mm guns now have some really nice target sets to engage.

Russia's Izyum attack axis is about to have a railway supply breakdown.👇

US Ammo history 🧵
1/17 That Russian Izyum rail supply chain is about to have a lot of "M795 155mm shell poisoning."

2/17
May 11 4 tweets 1 min read
This is a heart attack class serious development in the USA's grocery supply chain on the East Coast.🧵

If you don't have diesel for semi-tractor trailer trucks on the east coast.

You don't have fresh produce, meat, eggs, milk & cheese in east coast grocery stores.👇
1/ It's traditional for the US voting public to burn in a wicker basket whomever is President & his party for bad economic times.

Given the poisonous nature of current US politics, running out of diesel on the East Coast while sending $40 billion of lend lease military supplies
2/
May 11 9 tweets 2 min read
Pay close attention to the Rail line at the upper right on this map.🧵

Ukraine cutting it by occupation, or by artillery fire will, cause a huge "Stalingrad side-step" in terms of the Russian Army having to use more eastern rail lines to supply the Donbas offensive.

1/ The Ukrainians are big believers in "Shaping Operations," that is, small military operations that open up options of further military operations later.

For example, the destruction of Moskva and it's S-300F long range surface to air missiles by a Neptun cruise missile strike
2/
May 9 41 tweets 13 min read
This is going to be a long thread🧵 on Ukraine's unique 21st century fighting style based on Uber style C3I software, why Western intelligence is plug ignorant of it due to CROWDSTRIKE cybersecurity firm, & the implications of SpaceX's Starlink satcom for the future...

1/ Image ...of warfare & politics. This is going to be a wild thread, so buckle up.

First we need to talk about Ukraine's "GIS Art for Artillery" software package written by Yaroslav Sherstyuk.

web.archive.org/web/2020110811…
2/
May 8 6 tweets 2 min read
Today is the 80th anniversary of the sinking of the USS Lexington in the Battle of the Coral Sea.

Before I turned into this 'Ukraine War influencer,' I was a humble #twiterstorian on WW2 in the South Pacific.

I've done a couple of history threads related to this battle.
1/ There is a lot about this battle & the loss of the "Lady Lex" that has not made it to the historical narrative of this battle.

This thread is about the radars & fighter direction during the February 1942 IJN attack on USN carrier Task Force 11 and
2/
May 7 6 tweets 3 min read
@ksuwildkat What I am saying is western intelligence failed the two step process for all data, verification & validation.

Let's start with Russian BTG doctrine which says a 70% strength motor rifle regiment will generate two BTG. @ksuwildkat You verified Russian doctrine. It says two BTG.

Now the validation part, two full strength BTG is 66% of the Regiment's combat strength.

Keeping out conscripts automatically means the two BTG will be understrength.

Additionally, there will be zero unit cohesion.

2/
May 7 22 tweets 8 min read
It is too early for a real "lessons learned," but this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown a lot of things which impact the modeling & design of post-WW2 mechanized combat wargames, thread🧵

The three things that have jumped out for me are the following:
1/
1. The complete lack of mechanized logistics in the Russian Army
2. The horrible vulnerability of Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles compared to equivalent Western vehicles
3. The arrival of small drones in the artillery spotting role as armored vehicle killers
2/