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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
477 subscribers
Apr 1 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
I cannot underline enough how drones have changed warfare from WW2 based on this 🧵 numbers:

75% of all RuAF Casualties are from drones
20% are from Artillery
4% are from small arms

RuAF WIA time to medical treatment past AFU drones: 14.5 hours (3 x normal CASEVAC)

Drone🧵
1/ Image In WW2 according to US Army Medical department statistics, the US Army ground forces in NW Europe and the Mediterranean took 65% of their casualties from Artillery.

In 2025, Russia is taking 75% from drones.

2/ Image
Image
Mar 23 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Strategypage -dot- com has a new article out on the decline of Russian that civil infrastructure that makes Frederick Lanchester smile.

Russian Civil Infrastructure Attrition🧵

1/ Image Text from the article:

"Russia wants to end the Ukraine War via negotiations with the United States. This will work if done from a position of strength. The current Russian situation is weak and getting weaker.

2/
Mar 8 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Just...no.

This is the "Russia Strong" narrative pushed by those unknowingly spreading Russian Reflexive Control infowar propaganda, as here.

Russia is _Not_ Strong🧵

1/ The semiconductor industrial base is the foundation of 21st century economic & military power.

The USSR only ever produced single detector element technology like Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) Infrared Line Scan (IRLS) or scanning infrared Search and Track (IRST) like those on the MiG-29 Fulcrum A.

2/Image
Feb 19 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The vast majority of US military aid to Ukraine was in fact spent inside the USA to replace vastly overpriced by the Biden Adm. National Guard & Air Guard surplus weapons.

Spending aid money buying Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) to replace NG surplus Humvees

Infowar🧵
1/ ...was just one of the aid grifts @JakeSullivan46 NSC crew played to pretend they were helping Ukraine while not offending Russia & buying US Defense contractor kit.

Pres. Trump is literally parroting Russian reflexive control scripts from Biden Adm.

2/
Feb 9 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This @sambendett thread here makes Russia seem like a poor kid looking through a candy store window at the "candy" of Ukrainian ground resupply drones.

1/ We still don't see D-rings on Russian UGV's to hold down pallets lifted by all terrain forklifts and telehandlers.

[Hey, @TimothyDooner! Rate this strap work⬇️]

2/
 Image
Feb 9 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
This 🧵by @GrandpaRoy2 demonstrating the increasing battlefield obsolescence of tube artillery in the face of fiber optic fiber guided FPV drones is a useful jumping off point the following:

66% of RuAF AFV's & equipment killed in Jan 2025 were victims of drones

Drone tech🧵
1/ Image Back in November 2024 I did a long thread on how drones were an "effectiveness revolution" on the battlefield and we would see drones displacing other battlefield weapons because of it.

2/
Feb 7 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
It appears the collapse of Russian Army motor transport is nearly complete and hippo train (mules & horses) are being pulled out of the 19th century for the "2nd strongest Army in the world."

This won't end well for Russia.

A Mule Logistics🧵
1/ Being a WW2 historian of electronic warfare and logistics has it's advantages when it comes to looking up US Army standard operating procedures for horse & mule logistics.

See #1 thru #9 below and consider if a Mobik from a Russian city could do them.

2/ Image
Feb 5 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The NTSB - via Epoch Times - is reporting the UH-60 and Commuter jet altimeters were showing different altitudes.

"Officials said the control tower recorded the Black Hawk helicopter flying at an altitude of 200 feet at the time of the collision,

1/5
 theepochtimes.com/us/ntsb-confli… ...in line with its maximum allowed altitude for its flight path.

However, data from the passenger jet’s flight recorder show the collision occurred at an altitude of about 325 feet, plus or minus 25 feet.

2/5
Feb 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I asked Grok a series of questions about what seemed like a pattern of reduced or suppressed news about Russian Glide bomb strikes.

This is what Grok told me in my last question:
x.com/i/grok/share/W… This is the 1st half of the answer:

2/ Image
Feb 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The answer to this question is no.⬇️

Fodder/grain for animals is both heavier and more volume intensive for providing transportation than fuel is for trucks.

Those were sound logistical reasons why the US Army ditched horse cavalry in WW2.

1/3 US Army regulations set rations as 14 pounds of fodder (hay) and 12 pounds of grain (corn and oats) per day per wagon or pack animal.


2/3randomthoughtsonhistory.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-hu…
Feb 4 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Goodness, this is such a slam dunk easy statement to prove. The tiny Canadian Military forces lacks ammo to be fit for purpose.

No one doubts the skill or valor of Canadian Defense Forces. The world record longest range sniper shot was held by Canadian SF for several years.
1/ However, Canadian Defense Forces would lose a stand up fight with the Texas Army & Air National Guard because of the following:

1. Canada would run out of artillery ammo in a week,

2/
Jan 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Stephen Blank has always had a clear US policy view of Russia:

"Moreover, Putin and his circle consistently advance two intertwined claims:

1. Ukraine is inherently Russian;

2. this war steps from NATO’s alleged attempt to turn

1/
 euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/22/tru… ...its supposed vassal state Ukraine into a member against Russia’s will.

Though some self-proclaimed experts still peddle this nonsense, this war’s true purpose is unmistakable:

2/
Jan 20 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
400 Houthi aerial drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were fired at/near USN ships since Oct 2023

120 SM-2 & 80 SM-6 missiles, 160 five-inch main guns rounds, plus a combined 20 Evolved Sea Sparrow and SM-3 missiles engaged them.

Drone War Cost Trades 🧵
1/ Image Tyler Rogoway has reported the following missile costs:

SM-2 Block IIIC - $2,530,000 per missile.
SM-6 - $4,270,000 per missile.
Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) RIM-162 Block II - $1,490,000 per missile.
SM-3 -$12,510,000 for the Block IB, and $28,700,000 for the Block IIA
2/ Image
Jan 17 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The fire and forget millimeter wave (MMW) radar guidance AGM-114L "Hellfire Longbow" being referred in the War Zone post as "a new anti-drone armament" for the LCS actually ceased production in 2005 and reaches end of life in 2025.

1/ One of the reasons the AGM-114L was dropped from the US Army M-Shorad is the US Army didn't want to pay money to recertify the AGM-114L inventory...

2/
Jan 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It is a bad week to be Russia.

Qatar, one of the biggest LNG exporter, just announced it's new six MTPA (million tonnes per annum) nitrogen fertilizer plant.

The chemical process involved is natural gas->ammonia -> urea for a
1/
 dohanews.co/qatar-set-to-b… ...vertically integrated facility.

This new Qatar facility means Middle Eastern fertilizer industrial plants have now displaced Russia on the world fertilizer market.

2/
Jan 15 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I disagree with the thoughts in this post for multiple reasons.⬇️

1st, Ukraine made a systematic effort in Oct 2024 to take out multiple Russian alcohol distilleries.

So distilleries are on the AFU strategic bombing list.

1/ 2nd, there are a lot of things that alcohol is a chemical feedstock for that Russia desperately needs to make.

I've talked about synthetic rubber for tires in another thread.


2/
Jan 15 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine struck another Russian alcohol plant?

I'm beginning to think the Russians have been using alcohol to make butadiene based synthetic rubber.

My WW2 US mobilization resources say grain produced alcohol was the primary chemical feedstock for the synthetic rubber

1/ ...in US tires until August 1944.

The process was invented by a Russian, Via wikipedia:

"The Russian chemist Sergei Vasilyevich Lebedev was the first to polymerize butadiene in 1910....

2/
Jan 13 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
If you are going to talk about the US Army's WW2 "Revolution in logistical affairs."

You start at TM 55-310, Stevedoring⬇️

It lead to another Civil Rights revolution 25 years later.

Stevedoring & Civil Rights🧵🧵
1/ Image
Image
Image
Image That War Department technical manual codified how the US Army would apply mechanized logistics - pallets, forklifts and warehousing using same - world wide.

2/
Jan 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian Shaheds have been using early 1990's style digital scene mapping and correlation (DSMAC) guidance.

Depending on how much memory is on the Shahed, it could be avoiding the use of GNSS (Think GPS) radio navigation entirely.

1/ Image But as the figure I used above noted, Ukraine is mostly flat and that is bad for DSMAC accuracy.

An analysis of the data bases of downed Shaheds will yield the landmarks these drones are using.

That data, plus an AI analysis of past Shahed trajectories in GNSS jammed...

2/ Image
Jan 11 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is nothing new in warfare.⬇️

The British Army in WW2 need it's "Phantom" or "J-Service" to listen to its own army's radio circuits to get accurate reports to senior leaders that were slow and...call it...garbled on the way to senior leadership.

1/ The WW2 US Army duplicated this practice and created a dedicated radio units called SIAM - Signal Information and Monitoring - whose sole mission was to monitor the radio traffic of US units for violations of signal procedures and cipher security.

2/
Jan 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is exactly the kind of naval craft/infrastructure required for an invasion of Taiwan.

Chinese production of such invasion "shore connectors" should be considered a war warning clock starting its counting down.

Period. Dot.

1/ OSINT & Western intelligence now needs to be looking for mass deployments of Chinese 21st century prefabricated Mulberry harbor equivalents.⬇️

2/ Image