Thread by @Ulmer62336950

Here is a detailed thread on Finnish Laestadians’ demography.
First I will quickly describe what Laestadianism is.
Then I will discuss their estimated numbers.
I will conclude with their fertility rates.

Laestadianism is one of the 4 traditional revivalists movements of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland.
It is divided into different branches.
The main one is made by the Conservative Laestadians (SRK).
The other ones are smaller, amongst them Rauhan Sana and the LFF.

The name of the movement stems from Lars Levi Laestadius (1800–1861), a Swedish Sámi preacher and administrator for the Swedish state Lutheran church who was also a botanist. Laestadius started the movement when working as a pastor for the Church of Sweden in northern Sweden.

It is known for different rules. For example, premarital sex is forbidden. Seeing children as a gift of God, contraception is not accepted. Drinking alcohol is prohibited, makeup is not accepted, television shouldn't be watched. On the other hand, smartphones are tolerated.

However, Laestadianism differs from other breeding cults in that their members participate actively in the secular job market and society.
They also have an important impact on Finnish politics. Three of them have been Prime Ministers, the last one being Juha Sipilä (2015-2019).

One of the main aspects of Laestadians life are the clubs that they hold on a weekly basis arranging for example Bible studies.
One of the main periods of the year is in summer when the Laestadians hold the "Suviseurat", the summer services, where up to 80 000 people gather.

Laestadians' strongholds are mostly located in Finland's Bible Belt that encompasses Central and Northern Ostrobothnia and the remote areas of Lapland.

According to Seppo Lohi, 2.5 percent of the whole population of Finland were Laestadians in 1899, i.e 65 000 persons.
In Lapland and Northern Ostrobothnia, approximately 20–40 percent of the region’s population were Laestadians in 1902.

It is estimated that at the end of the 1960s, there were around 100 000 Conservative Laestadians.
In 2009, they were estimated at 120 000, around 2% of the Finnish population.

Known to have a high birth rate, this implies that a huge part of the community leaves.
In 2013, Valkila estimated at more than 120 000 the number of members that left the community.
On average, half of those born into the Laestadian faith leave the movement.

Aggregating different sources from different decades, I estimated the proportion of Laestadians in different municipalities.
However, the cities with the largest amount of Laestadians are Oulu, Helsinki and Jyväskylä.

All those municipalities don't share the same history. Liminka, Lumijoki, and Tyrnävä being next to the northern city of Oulu, they have been influenced by its massive population development following the growth of the technology industry.

This spreadsheet shows the development with a positive net intermunicipality migration sum for Liminka and Tyrnävä. Lumijoki is around zero and all the other "Laestadians municipalities" have a negative intermunicipality migration sum.

Population development has been different for those different municipalities, some losing population through intermunicipality migration, some still managing population growth despite that.
We also don't know who left/came to those places, if they are part of the community or not

Let's dive into their respective TFR, calculated thanks to the Finnish Institute of Statistics' data.
Through the decades, they all had a TFR > 3, except Pedersöre. The 2020s have seen for the moment a decline, with the notable exception of Larsmo and Pyhäntä.

It is difficult to estimate the reason for this current decline in those municipalities. It could be from a decline of the community's birth rate, a higher share of members leaving the faith, a higher share of non-members (from migration, mostly in Liminka and Tyrnävä)...

Keep in mind that as said before, most Laestadians live in 3 big cities : Oulu, Helsinki and Jyväskylä. They made up a smaller part of the population in those cities, their TFR could also be more influenced by the crashing TFR of the general Finnish population.

I will post the updated "Laestadian municipalities" births and TFR when data will be released by the Finnish Statistics Institute.

END