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Oct 1, 2023 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Here is a detailed thread on Finnish Laestadians’ demography.
First I will quickly describe what Laestadianism is.
Then I will discuss their estimated numbers.
I will conclude with their fertility rates. Image
Laestadianism is one of the 4 traditional revivalists movements of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland.
It is divided into different branches.
The main one is made by the Conservative Laestadians (SRK).
The other ones are smaller, amongst them Rauhan Sana and the LFF.
The name of the movement stems from Lars Levi Laestadius (1800–1861), a Swedish Sámi preacher and administrator for the Swedish state Lutheran church who was also a botanist. Laestadius started the movement when working as a pastor for the Church of Sweden in northern Sweden. Image
It is known for different rules. For example, premarital sex is forbidden. Seeing children as a gift of God, contraception is not accepted. Drinking alcohol is prohibited, makeup is not accepted, television shouldn't be watched. On the other hand, smartphones are tolerated.
However, Laestadianism differs from other breeding cults in that their members participate actively in the secular job market and society.
They also have an important impact on Finnish politics. Three of them have been Prime Ministers, the last one being Juha Sipilä (2015-2019). Image
One of the main aspects of Laestadians life are the clubs that they hold on a weekly basis arranging for example Bible studies.
One of the main periods of the year is in summer when the Laestadians hold the "Suviseurat", the summer services, where up to 80 000 people gather. Image
Laestadians' strongholds are mostly located in Finland's Bible Belt that encompasses Central and Northern Ostrobothnia and the remote areas of Lapland. Image
According to Seppo Lohi, 2.5 percent of the whole population of Finland were Laestadians in 1899, i.e 65 000 persons.
In Lapland and Northern Ostrobothnia, approximately 20–40 percent of the region’s population were Laestadians in 1902.
It is estimated that at the end of the 1960s, there were around 100 000 Conservative Laestadians.
In 2009, they were estimated at 120 000, around 2% of the Finnish population. Image
Known to have a high birth rate, this implies that a huge part of the community leaves.
In 2013, Valkila estimated at more than 120 000 the number of members that left the community.
On average, half of those born into the Laestadian faith leave the movement.
Aggregating different sources from different decades, I estimated the proportion of Laestadians in different municipalities.
However, the cities with the largest amount of Laestadians are Oulu, Helsinki and Jyväskylä. Image
All those municipalities don't share the same history. Liminka, Lumijoki, and Tyrnävä being next to the northern city of Oulu, they have been influenced by its massive population development following the growth of the technology industry. Image
This spreadsheet shows the development with a positive net intermunicipality migration sum for Liminka and Tyrnävä. Lumijoki is around zero and all the other "Laestadians municipalities" have a negative intermunicipality migration sum. Image
Population development has been different for those different municipalities, some losing population through intermunicipality migration, some still managing population growth despite that.
We also don't know who left/came to those places, if they are part of the community or not
Let's dive into their respective TFR, calculated thanks to the Finnish Institute of Statistics' data.
Through the decades, they all had a TFR > 3, except Pedersöre. The 2020s have seen for the moment a decline, with the notable exception of Larsmo and Pyhäntä. Image
It is difficult to estimate the reason for this current decline in those municipalities. It could be from a decline of the community's birth rate, a higher share of members leaving the faith, a higher share of non-members (from migration, mostly in Liminka and Tyrnävä)...
Keep in mind that as said before, most Laestadians live in 3 big cities : Oulu, Helsinki and Jyväskylä. They made up a smaller part of the population in those cities, their TFR could also be more influenced by the crashing TFR of the general Finnish population.
I will post the updated "Laestadian municipalities" births and TFR when data will be released by the Finnish Statistics Institute.

END

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More from @Ulmer62336950

Feb 3
About AI and fertility:
The biggest part of the current fertility decline is due to lower coupling/mariage rates.
The category that retains OK mariage rates and decent(ish) fertility is educated white collars.
But the jobs identified as most at risk by AI are exactly those ones. Image
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If AI becomes as potent as forecasted, and those jobs are replaced, will this categorie's marriage rate and fertility drop too ?
If the current lower marriage rate is explained by diminishing relative income of men VS women nowaydays, then by definition UBI would be useless. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1, 2024
TFR by mother's language in 2023 in Finland for the 20 most spoken languages in Finland.
In the top 20, no language is above 2,5.
Half of them are even under 1 ! Image
And here are the languages spoken with the highest TFR.
Most of them have a really low amount of language speakers, so variability can be high. Image
You might remember that I did the same calculations last year.
I did it last year by mother's background country, but this data isn't available yet for 2023.
Read 6 tweets
May 17, 2024
Thread about the newly released crime statistics in Finland in 2023.
All of these statistics are based on the nationality of suspects of different solved offences.
In order to make comparisons easier to read, Finnish citizens rates are egal to 1.
Let's start with robbery : Image
Now assault : Image
Sexual crimes : Image
Read 7 tweets

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