Thread by @AGHamilton29

So let’s walk through it.

We now have video of the scene showing the explosion is from the parking lot and the buildings are in tact. There is no crater, no building demolished. This is inconsistent with the type of bomb many were suggesting yesterday.

There is drone footage from before and after that shows the same as above. Also inconsistent with an airstrike.

The IDF has released a phone call allegedly between 2 Hamas operatives where one informs the other that the Islamic Jihad missile was launched from a cemetery near the hospital and the shrapnel is consistent with one of their missiles.

It is also worth noting that the photos of the scene are also not consistent with any of the casualty numbers that were quickly released by Hamas’ health ministry and cited throughout the media yesterday. Even if there were a significant number of refugees in the parking lot.

We also had a clear announcement at 19:00 by Hamas that they would be launching rockets at Israel. The first announcement of the hospital being hit was exactly 10 minutes later.

We have video from the Israeli side of the barrage of rockets being launched followed immediately by the explosion nearby almost immediately after.

We have video from an Al Jazeera livestream showing a rocket being launched, misfiring, and then part of the payload falling down nearby that is from 18:59 (within a minute of the Hamas announcement).

Analysis of the Al-Jazeera livestream location confirms the missile fell on the hospital.

More analysis with other videos showing that the projectile that was clearly from a missile launch fell in the hospital parking lot.

More footage of the damage. Surrounding buildings appear structurally untouched and almost all the damage in the parking lot.

Video from Israeli news channel. Time stamp matched other videos (18:59). Shows rocket launches from location nearby followed by the explosion where the arrow is on the right.

I should note that while there is little evidence the hospital was damaged and the casualty counts from Hamas are clearly unreliable/inconsistent w evidence, there is evidence of substantial casualties among the people that were gathered on the grass next to the parking lot.

Pentagon concluded independently that the the blast near the hospital was caused by a misfired rocket from Islamic Jihad.

Slight correction from the first tweet in this thread where I should have noted no large crater. People have noted there is evidence of a very small crater at the area of impact.