(1/) The Embryonic Low which will highly likely become the next name storm is now developing along a developing frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley. This Low will move East across the Atlantic where it will come under the influence of the powerful 160-170Knt (nr 200mph) Jet
(2/) The low is set to deepen rapidly as it crosses the Atlantic, though there remains some uncertainty in the models with respect to when the most explosive phase of deepening will occur & how near this is to the UK. The 00Z Suite of models have backed off (thankfully) a little
3/) from the very concerning extreme solutions seen on Saturday evening. However there is still cause for serious concern with where this low tracks. There is 100-200m Spread in some of the solutions, which if the low is passing NW of the UK doesn't make that much difference
4/) but when a low is passing from the Celtic SEa across Wales, Midlands & Lincs that makes a BIG difference to the zone of stronger winds. The ECMWF & its ensemble are quite clear this morning on a track towards the Southern Celtic Sea across S Wales/Bristol Channel exiting
5/) over lincs . Whilst other models have slightly different tracks the overall evolution & expected track are similar. The Ensemble indicates near 100% of Ensemble runs have >60Knt winds near west Cornwall & the risk of damaging winds through the Channel with nearly all models
6) having 80-90mph gusts for the Channel Islands, What we have less certainty on is the strength & inland penetration of the strong winds across London & the SE of England. Here there is much less model agreement on the shape of the low. Because of the high population
7/) here I am not going to speculate further until we have better model agreement, but at this point we can be increasingly confident of a major windstorm moving across the UK on Weds Night through Thursday with Damaging Wind & Gust potential anywhere over Southern/SE England
(8/ ) & the Channel Islands & anyone here should pay careful attention to future forecasts.
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