Thread by @jasonfurman

I'm later to proclaim it than many others but we're almost at the soft landing.

Core PCE inflation annualized:

1 month: 2.0%
3 months: 2.4%
6 months: 2.5%
12 months: 3.5%

If you exclude housing or treat it differently the story is a bit better.

3-month annualized inflation:

Core w/ new rent: 1.5%
Core ex housing: 1.7%
Core ex housing & used cars: 2.1%
Core services ex housing: 2.7%

(Note the last always runs high, is equivalent to 2% PCE.)

Still a bit nervous that imputed stuff like portfolio fees was a big part of keeping inflation lower over the last 2 months. Market-based core is a better signal, more connected to economic conditions, and up a lot in Sep and Oct.

But even this is 2.5% annual rate over 6 months.

Here is overall inflation.

Here are all the measures discussed above. Would be great to see two more months of good data like the last several months. Outside of these data the labor market still looks tight and nominal wage growth high. So no victory yet, but getting a lot closer.