Thread by @IntelCrab

Lets break down the attack on Belgorod:

What do we know for certain? Lets start with the easy stuff.

A series of large explosions were reported in the central district of Belgorod at/around 14:50 local time.

This time is corroborated by several matching timestamps via dashcam.

These explosions occurred across town, but the four most prominent hits occurred here.

From left to right:

* 50°35'52.8"N 36°35'00.6"E
* 50°35'56.3"N 36°35'07.2"E
* 50°35'56.4"N 36°35'09.7"E
* 50°35'58.9"N 36°35'22.9"E

There are a few impact sites I've yet to personally find; particularly this location, which appears to be a large apartment complex.

A gym was also hit, according to RT, but I've yet to locate it either.

At around 3:14 local time, local authorities made a statement claiming that these impacts were the result of falling intercept debris.

As the scale of the attack grew wider, these claims stopped. This was the last report I could find that mentioned falling debris.

Local media quickly shifted gears, and by dinner time, the Russian Mod had 'identified' not only the origin of these attacks, but the weapons used.

But how can that be?

For starters, there are no documented impact craters at the site of these attacks. At least not right now.

Even this scene, where several cars can be seen burning, lacks a centralized crater.

Same here. A truck is on fire. But not blown into a million pieces.

Yet with all this in mind, there does appear to be evidence of at least some sort of direct arrival.

The velocity of the projectile in this video is far faster than any piece of shrapnel. A detonation is seen on impact, too.

So what happened? Its hard to say without a good look at all of the sites shown in this thread.

There is evidence of HE-frag style damage at SOME locations, but not all. Others appear to have suffered simple shrapnel damage that can be explained via far easier explanations.

I think the core of understanding this attack goes back to the very start.

Were there intercepts with falling debris? Or were there none at all. Why change the narrative as soon as the vast scope of damage became apparent?

There is enough evidence to suggest some sort of external ordinance in play. At least at some of the sites. Not all of them.

But are they really from the systems the Russian MoD says?

We'll find out soon enough.

One little footnote. Rybar is sharing this map on Telegram, but maps anything from blown out windows all the way across town to the key strikes we saw downtown.

Interesting.

If you want a laundry list of things to look for over the next few hours, I'd start with:

*Were there any visible S-300 launches at the time of the attack?
*Is there any rocket/shell/interceptor debris to be found? If so, what does it look like?
*Any impact craters?

One more footnote. If you want proof as to why these were (probably) not failed S-300 launches, take a look at Kharkiv, which was sadly just hit by one in ground attack orientation.

Huge chunk of the building is gone; far beyond just façade damage.

(And yes, I know there is no such thing as ground attack orientation for S-300s, but rather idiotic ingenuity.)