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The internet's most trusted crustacean. Conflict analysis, data visualization, and small amounts of melted butter.

Dec 31, 2023, 15 tweets

This small two block portion of central Belgorod has my particular focus today.

The site furthest south is notable for a few reasons.

For starters, the structural damage shown here is far worse than anywhere else in town. Several cars, windows, and the entire façade of a building are gone.

The fragmentation here is also unique; not appearing (at least at this scale) anywhere else in town.

This is the same site (note the wall and windows to the right, which are just like the ones shown in the above tweet) as mentioned previously.

Note how - compared to many of the other clips we've seen - this was a huge explosion.

Now here comes the real reason that this site has my attention.

On top of sharing the above clip, this Telegram account also shares numerous photos of what appear to be missile shrapnel.

t.me/shot_shot/60961

This photo, specifically, which I already mentioned earlier today looks a lot like the rear portion of an S-300.

Now like most Telegram garbage aggregators, we do NOT know whether these pieces of shrapnel were found at the scene of the explosion shown.

A few of the replies I've found so far seem to imply they were, however.

Additionally (though clearly this is a moving into stretch territory), the red bench shown above may be right here, in the nearby courtyard.

(50°35'48.8"N 36°35'27.9"E)

With that said, do not get caught up on the bench. Though if you happen to know where those shrapnel pictures were taken, please let me know.

Anyway. There is evidence to suggest some sort of S-300 downfall here. Whether this was the entire rocket, portions of the warhead, or even the booster itself is unknown.

This is why I highlighted this portion of the map, as well.

If this is only a portion of the S-300, surely the rest went elsewhere. The site shown in this video (and labeled accordingly on the map) may fit the characteristics shown here...

...though I've yet to see the courtyard highlighted there in the same great detail as the main location highlighted in this thread.

Thanks to several DMs with @PijkerenTb, it seems these are all of the fragments found so far from yesterday's attack.

That's it.

Assuming many of you are far smarter than me, please feel free to identify them accordingly, at your own leisure.

@PijkerenTb And again, this is not conspiracy hour. There were several S-300 launches noted yesterday.

Where they were launched from, what they did/did not hit, and where they landed will answer many of the questions at work here.

@PijkerenTb

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