Thread by @Mylovanov

Ukraine society has become polarized by mobilization. Almost no one is covering this in English speaking social media, but that’s topic # 1 in Ukraine. The implication are huge: Ukrainians will either unify even more or there will be polarization

This is what’s happening 1/

The army has asked for 400-500K new recruits. The reason - many people mobilized in the beginning of the invasion have been serving non-stop, but they need a break, at least a rotation. 2/

There are also losses - killed and wounded, but they are much smaller than those of the Russian military and also the numbers generally believed by the public 3/

President Zelensky, has made this number public in a press conference in the late December. 4/

In addition to the press conferences by Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian media published one idea how a draft can go and that caused a social media storm 5/

The idea is attributed to the government, but no one admitted on record. It is that the government will mobilize whoever is needed for the army, but companies and people who provide high value and pay taxes might be fast tracked to be exempt 6/

The idea is to balance off the needs of the army, the economy, and the government budget that has to finance the army. So, in the jargon of the economist, the problem is the allocation of the labor force between the army and the civil economy 7/

There is also an additional objective - provide incentive for people and companies to pay taxes and minimize evasion. So, those who pay taxes are less likely, other things being equal, to be mobilized. 8/

This policy proposal offended many people. They say it is equivalent to discrimination of the poor - those who are rich won’t serve, those who are poor will. 9/

The alternative - a lottery draft that gives everyone an equal chance - has also not been received well in the discussion. People say it is too arbitrary 10/

The third alternative - an increase in salaries in the army so that there are volunteers - is liked by many. It keeps freedom of choice and solves the problem. Its cost however appears to be prohibitive for Ukraine at the moment given that the economy is hurt already 11/

This discussion also attracted attention to two related topics: the efficiency of allocation people recruited into the military to specific positions. Many people think there are many areas for improvement 12/

The second topic is that of whether a proportion of politicians, government officials, and others very visible people should also be forcefully mobilized and whether their rate of mobilization should be at least as high as that of the general population 13/

Some economists have calculated how many years more people could be mobilized until the economy collapses irreversibly. There are still ways to go. Several waves of mobilization of this degree are possible. Ukraine can double or triple its military but can’t increase it 10X 14/

But now of this works if Ukrainian economy is not in decent shape. So, the Western financial support remains a critical element of the survival and defense of Ukraine. And at the moment there are questions how solid this support is. 15X