Putin has no plan for winning in Ukraine.

His losses are catastrophic - 984k–1.44m casualties, up to 480k dead and all he has achieved is expanding NATO and wiping out a generation of young Russian men, writes The Economist.

1/ His 2025 summer offensive (the third and largest) — failed.

Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones; if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.

After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year.

2/

I told CNN that Zelenskyy must act as harshly as possible on the corruption scandal with energy company “Energoatom,” or he risks losing public support among Ukrainians.

1/ People say: “Let’s see how Zelenskyy acts. If he’s not acting, then he’s with the accused. If he really sanctions them, arrests them, prosecutes those who allow this to happen, then, okay, he’s good.”

2/

Stubb: I'm a realistic optimist, but to be quite honest, I don't see an end to this conflict this year.

The earliest we can get into the negotiating table would be February, March, but that is for President Zelensky to decide. There should be no solo acts. 1/ Stubb: It's obvious that Russia will remain a long-standing threat to security and stability of Europe even after the war. NATO and Europe needs to continue to strengthen our defences.

The defence spending commitment is important and we need greater European investment. 2/

Ukraine’s ground robot is now fighting like an infantryman.

Droid TW 12.7 held a frontline position for six weeks, writes Militarnyi. Operators sent it to a key crossroads each morning and pulled it back at night.

Russians tried to break through — the robot stopped them.

1/ The robot fired its M2 Browning 12.7 mm and cut down Russian assault groups.

It replaced a full infantry team.

2/

Russia’s economy has almost hit a wall.

Q3 2025 GDP grew just 0.6% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q2, and the Central Bank now sees only 0.5-1% growth for the year.

War costs and sanctions are finally biting, writes The Moscow Times. 1/ Two years of war spending kept factories busy but lit an inflation fire: prices are still rising 8% a year.

To fight that, the Central Bank holds rates high, and the civilian economy pays the price with weaker demand and stalled investment. 2/

President Stubb: I’m not optimistic about a ceasefire or peace talks in Ukraine this year — maybe by February or March.

Until then, we must maximize pressure on Russia and force Putin to rethink his aim of denying Ukraine’s independence. 1/ Stubb: Ukraine needs two things: financial support, using €140-180B in frozen Russian assets as collateral to get through winter — and increased military pressure.

West must keep supplying weapons. With Putin, only the stick works, he won’t negotiate unless forced. 2/

Belgium is blocking the EU’s plan to lend $213B to Ukraine because PM Bart De Wever fears massive financial liabilities for Belgium.

EU officials warn Kyiv could run out of money by spring without this lifeline, WSJ. 1/ Belgian officials argue the loan, backed by Russian assets frozen in Belgium, could expose the country to losses equal to one-third of its GDP.

The domestic budget crisis increases political pressure on De Wever to resist. 2/

What’s new in the scandal over Ukraine’s largest electricity producer, Energoatom?

1. Ukraine’s migration service canceled Timur Mindich’s citizenship — he holds Israeli citizenship. Mindich fled Ukraine hours before NABU raids on Nov. 10.

1/ 2. Zelensky removed Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko from the National Security and Defense Council.

Both ministers filed resignation letters after NABU exposed the bribery scheme.

2/

Merz told Zelenskyy to stop the rising flow of young Ukrainian men to Germany and ensure they remain in Ukraine to serve.

Arrivals of Ukrainian men aged 18-22 surged from 19 per week in Aug to 1,400-1,800 per week in Oct after Kyiv relaxed exit rules, Politico. 1/ Bavaria’s PM Markus Söder proposed limiting the EU Temporary Protection Directive if Kyiv doesn’t reduce departures.

The directive currently grants Ukrainians automatic protected status in the EU. 3/

Russia’s oil export revenues fell to $13.4B in September, a decline of $200M compared to the previous month.

Crude revenues increased by $200M, but this gain was fully offset by a $400M drop in oil product revenues, KSE Institute reports. 1/ Seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% compared to the previous month. Ships covered by international insurance carried only 26% of crude exports and 81% of oil product exports. 2/

Q: Latest situation in eastern Ukraine?

Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s ambassador to the US: Russia is scaling up its military budget and nightly drone attacks. Pokrovsk is used to create a “victorious” narrative, but Ukraine sees it as Russian agony. 1/ Q: Will Ukraine withdraw from Pokrovsk?

Stefanishyna: There were over 1,100 engagements last week, and Pokrovsk is just one spot. Russia is throwing 5 times more resources there, but it will not be decisive for the whole war. 2/

Q: What’s Ukraine’s energy situation ahead of winter?

Zelenskyy: It’s tough. Russia launches up to 800 drones a day plus missiles at energy sites.

Ukraine depends on air defense, EW, and home-built drones to protect the grid.

1/ Zelenskyy: We need to not lose US and EU support.

We need long range artillery, air defence, and interceptor drones.

Overally we need long range. Not only Tomahawks, there are similar systems.

Some Russsian military targets have strong air defence. Drones aren't enough.

2/

Russia is expanding its recruitment of African nationals for its war in Ukraine.

Kenya now says more than 200 of its citizens have already joined Moscow’s forces.

Ukraine reports over 1,400 fighters from 30+ African states serving with Russia. — Reuters

1/ Kenya’s foreign ministry says recruitment networks remain active in both Kenya and Russia.

Its embassy in Moscow has recorded injuries among Kenyan recruits who were promised “safe” non-combat work but ended up at the front.

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Russia’s army is turning on itself.

Ukrainian intel says conscripts now shoot fellow recruits, officers execute men who refuse orders, and units collapse from fear and alcohol.

Western officials estimate 350,000 Russian casualties since Feb 2022. — Daily Mail.

1/ Outside Vuhledar, a commander forced two mobilised soldiers to fight in a crater “to the death.” Both men were executed. The scene was filmed and later recovered by Ukrainian troops.

“Gladiator run by drunk conscripts,” one officer said.

2/

Daria Lopatina, 19, an engineer with Azov’s special forces, left the Kyiv School of Economics to defend Ukraine.

She was killed in action and buried in Kyiv.

Her death symbolizes a generation of Ukrainian women who grew up with war and chose to fight. — NPR

1/ More than 70,000 women now serve in Ukraine’s Armed Forces — about 8% of all troops, a 40% increase since 2021.

A 2018 law finally allowed women into combat positions and military universities.

Thousands now fight as pilots, artillery commanders, engineers, and medics.

2/

Ukraine's top diplomat Sergiy Kyslytsya reveals Russian tactics in Istanbul: ignore substance, deny Ukrainian identity, offer fake progress to trick the Americans.

The real lesson? "In a dictatorship, you have to deal directly with the dictator" — The Times. 1/ Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky opened talks with a lecture claiming "we, the Russians are killing Russians" — completely denying Ukraine's separate identity despite facing Ukrainian defense ministers, generals and diplomats. 2/

Russia’s war economy is running on fumes.

In September, oil revenues fell to $13.4 bn, the budget deficit reached $41 bn, and liquid reserves in the NWF dropped to $50 bn.

KSE Institute’s Russia Chartbook: the Kremlin’s stability now hinges on new U.S. sanctions.

1/ Russia earned $13.4 bn from oil in September (down from $13.6 bn in August). Ukrainian strikes on refineries forced a shift to crude exports.

New sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could trigger major losses if China and India cut purchases.

2/

Russia is running out of money!

Russia faces seven consecutive years of high budget deficit (over 2%) — streak unseen since 1999, with 2025 deficit projected at 2.6% of GDP and government abandoning goal of keeping it below 1% — The Kyiv Independent. 1/ Economist Benjamin Hilgenstock says 2026 deficit projection of 1.6% is wishful thinking — deficit of 2-3% of GDP is a lot for Russia since it doesn't have access to financing like normal countries. 2/

Moscow’s war doesn’t stop in Ukraine

Russian activist Igor Rogov, arrested in Poland, has admitted he worked as an FSB agent, informing on fellow opposition figures.

Court papers show he infiltrated movements linked to Navalny and Khodorkovsky before — The Guardian

1/ Rogov and his wife moved to Poland days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He told investigators he was coerced by the FSB years earlier and later paid for spying. Meetings took place in an unmarked apartment near the agency’s HQ.

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Russia’s drone war has entered an industrial phase.

Moscow now produces over 6,000 Shahed-type drones a month and can launch 700+ in a single night.

Each costs as little as $20k–$70k, while intercepting one with a Patriot missile costs over $3 million. — CNN

1/ Ukraine defends its skies using a layered system:

Machine-gun trucks for low-flying drones
Electronic-warfare (EW) systems to jam or spoof GPS
SAM and MANPAD missiles for higher threats
Laser weapons in development

2/

Jana Bakunina, Russian living in London since 1999, visited Yekaterinburg in autumn 2023 to interview friends and family — found "two years on, nothing has changed" in their support for Putin, inews writes.

"Every Russian ruler has been bit of despot." 1/ Her friend Katya, CEO of major business, believes Bucha war crimes were fabricated because "a Russian wouldn't loot, rape or kill civilians," calling Ukraine unfortunate pawn in Russia's defense from NATO. 2/