Russia can no longer keep its combat aircraft safe in occupied Crimea. A Ukrainian drone costing about $10,000 destroyed a Su-24M bomber worth millions at Saky airfield.

The bomber was minutes from taking off to hit Ukraine when two drones caught it on the ground — United24. 1/ Oleksandr Pivnenko, commander of Ukraine's National Guard, announced the strike on July 16 and released footage of the operation by the Omega Special Purpose Center.

Two strike drones hit the Su-24M as crews readied it at Saky for another mission against Ukraine. 2/

Fire Point's Flamingo cruise missile reaches twice as far as the Tomahawk and carries a larger payload at half the cost. Its wings are filled with Styrofoam.

Shtilerman: "They need to fly for 15 hours. Anything beyond that is a waste of money." — The Atlantic.

1/ Fire Point now produces roughly 200 long-range drones a day and up to three Flamingo cruise missiles a day. Its missiles reach Siberia.

Nine European countries plus Ukraine just announced a joint anti-ballistic missile coalition — with Fire Point's FP-7x as its basis.

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FT: Germany is studying Ukraine’s war experience to adapt its own army.

The Bundeswehr is learning from Ukrainian soldiers about drones, counter drone defense, deep strikes, force organization, procurement and rearmament. 1/ Christian Freuding, Germany’s land forces chief, says Ukrainian soldiers bring unmatched combat experience and the scale of an 800,000 strong force. He says European and Ukrainian security remain inextricably linked. 2/

Ukraine’s 20-somethings are reshaping its war machine and displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense.

A Defense Ministry staffer in her early 20s found Denmark had earmarked the wrong shells for Ukraine and secured 15,000 long-range rounds, NYT. 1/ The staffer works under Oleksii Antoniuk, 24, deputy head of the ministry’s cooperation department.
Oleksii: “If not for her, this wouldn’t have happened.”

Young Ukrainians under 30 are gradually displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense. 2/

Applebaum: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly as a direct challenge to NATO and the United States.

Moscow wanted to prove there was no Western alliance, that Ukraine was not a real country, and that Europe and America would not come to its defense. 1/ Applebaum: Russia wanted to show that it alone was the sovereign power in Eastern Europe and would decide what happened there.

Instead, it was surprised: the United States and a united Europe pulled together and proved that a democratic world still exists. 2/

Applebaum: The war with Iran was clearly a war of choice. Israel had proposed this kind of action to previous US presidents, and they declined.

They understood the immediate danger to international shipping and especially to the oil and gas industries. 1/ Applebaum: Trump now appears to regret the war, or at least has no interest in continuing it.

He is seeking an agreement that could resemble — or even be slightly worse than — the Obama-era deal, while the claim that Iran was about to get a bomb does not add up. 2/

Applebaum: Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan grows out of his business dealings in Turkey.

He invested there, believes those investments went well, and his family company still has interests there — or could. He sees the world in personal, transactional terms. 1/ Applebaum: Trump does not think like a traditional American president representing US interests, the Western alliance, or the democratic world.

He asks what is good for him personally. He likes Erdoğan, and that is the simplest way to understand their closeness. 2/

Zelenskyy: I spoke at length with Mykhailo Fedorov today. I also spoke with Oleksandr Syrskyi.

I hear what people are saying. Decisions on the army are coming. There were many consultations yesterday and today. 1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine struck targets near Moscow and in the Tambov region.

We hit Russian logistics sites and warehouses that supplied navigation equipment, drone components and other materiel to the Russian army. 2/

Zelenskyy is considering replacing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

He may do so if he finds a successor who can ensure a smooth transfer and hold a stable defense along the 1,200 km front.

He will meet commanders this weekend to assess candidates, FT. 1/ The crisis started after Syrsky gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum to remove Fedorov, according to Fedorov.

Zelenskyy said the two men no longer spoke directly without him mediating. 2/

A British coder built the world's first network of fully autonomous drones for the Ukrainian army on paternity leave, in his garden shed, with his baby daughter in a papoose.

Gui Wainwright's AI software now kills Russian soldiers without any human interaction, The Times. 1/ Wainwright: "Russia has an asymmetric advantage — its ability to throw men at Ukraine because it doesn't value human life.

Eventually, one man in a bunker with a computer could field 10,000 drones simultaneously and hold 1,000 miles of land."

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Saam, ex Russian soldier now fighting for Ukraine: In most cases, the task in the Russian army is to die.

There is often no concrete objective — take a height, clear an area, or hold a position. Just go forward. 1/ Saam: Many Russian soldiers receive less than two days of training.

They are taken to units and assigned roles by “buyers”: machine gunner, grenade launcher operator, almost even helicopter pilot — though they may never have seen the weapon they are supposed to use. 2/

Ratcliffe, CIA Director: A Russian recruit’s average life expectancy in Ukraine is estimated at 20–30 minutes.

AI-powered drones have become low-cost killing machines, showing that mastery of technology is now as important as military strength. 1/ Ratcliffe: Russia occupied 19% of Ukraine when I became CIA director 18 months ago. Today it holds 20%.

Ukraine’s mastery of drones and asymmetric warfare has nearly stopped Russia’s advance, showing how emerging technologies can equalize the battlefield. 2X

I told BBC that people in Kyiv are surprised, annoyed, disappointed with the government reshuffle, but not angry.

The reshuffle won’t affect Zelenskyy’s popularity either way. And student protests are real, but not anti-Zelenskyy. They want Fedorov back.

1/ Me: For students, Fedorov is an icon and a cultural role model. He represents youth and the new generation.

They love him and are really sad he is gone.

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Kasparov: Putin could launch an incursion into Latvia or Estonia to test NATO after Russia’s September election.

He has always escalated when he felt he was in trouble. The most likely next escalation is a provocation, Politico. 1/ Kasparov: There is no sign in Russian propaganda, government actions or Putin’s speeches that Moscow is preparing for peace: War, war, war, war. 2/

Kuleba: Something personal broke between Zelenskyy and Fedorov.

Zelenskyy likely learned something that hit him personally and stopped trusting him. Yermak pressured Fedorov, but Fedorov had always been indispensable.

1/ Kuleba: I see no parallel with last year. Back then, I saw an attack on NABU, an independent instution.

Today, I see an attack on a strong manager and rising politician whose ties with Zelenskyy broke. Once that trust breaks, he cannot run defense or help the system.

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Congressman Moulton: Putin started an illegal war, and Ukraine turned it into a gift for NATO. Russia’s army is being decimated.

It proved far weaker than expected, with few tanks left. Americans now have more confidence because Ukrainians keep beating the Russians.

1/ Moulton: I worry that if Russia fights the U.S. or a NATO ally, it will have fewer tanks, fewer aircraft, and a weaker economy.

But on the ground, Russian troops have more experience fighting in a drone warfare environment than ours.

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Zelenskyy: The dialogue between the army leadership and Defense Ministry is difficult at different levels. It is not only about personalities.

Fedorov will remain on the team. The new Prime Minister has his own vision and must be strengthened by people he trusts. 1/ Zelenskyy: The army is responsible for holding the battlefield and our successful long-range strikes. There are problems in some brigades that must be addressed boldly.

Everyone is tired of the war. Our task is to ensure Russia becomes completely exhausted first. 2/

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: I’m proud Kyiv’s defense saved the capital in 2022. That is why people can hold briefings here, shape plans, and make decisions today.

I thank Mykhailo Fedorov for his work as defense minister. Hope he stays on Ukraine’s team.

1/ Syrskyi: I will do everything so Ukraine stays free and independent.

To keep Ukraine free, we must focus on the war and on a strategy that already brings results.

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Fedorov: Zelenskyy said he wouldn’t replace Syrskyi, I accepted that. I would have learned to work with him because we answer to the Ukrainian people.

But our initiatives were blocked. Syrskyi avoided discussing problems, and chose intrigue and media blame. He issued an ultimatum. He found a way to divide the country instead of defeating Russia. 1/ Fedorov: Mobilization won’t work without army reform. Young people discuss the 155th Brigade and failed assault units, not new contracts. The 3rd Assault Corps grew through clear processes, accountability, and unified command. 2/

Zelenskyy named Ihor Obolenskyi a Hero of Ukraine. He commands Khartiia, a combat unit that fights with drones, robots, scouts and artillery.

In Kupiansk, his Lava unit sent robots and drones instead of soldiers and destroyed a Russian bunker, ammo dump and 10 troops.

1/ Callsign: Kornet.

Obolenskyi is from Sumy. He graduated from the Bohdan Khmelnytskyi Military Institute of Missile Forces and Artillery.

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Azov and Khartiia commanders backed Ihor Klymenko for defense minister.

Khartiia's Obolenskyi: He can turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army and grow arms production.

Azov's Prokopenko: He knows the front, worked on the corps system and can fix mobilization.1/
Obolenskyi: A wartime defense minister must turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army, and grow defense industry.

It is like changing a race car’s wheels while driving. Ihor Klymenko is worthy of this new challenge.

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