Stubb: Ukraine is now on top militarily, politically and economically, stronger than at any time in this war.

Half of Ukraine’s drones that hit Russia reach their targets. Half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity is damaged. Russia loses 8 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian.

1/ Stubb: For Lindsey, Ukraine was a victory for freedom, for the Europe-U.S. alliance, for NATO, for liberal democracy and for the free world.

He fought hard for his values, and Ukraine was one of the most important battles he fought.

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Kellogg: You do not need a Gulf War-style invasion. Hit strategic targets.

Take Kharg Island, 16 miles offshore and central to Iran’s economy. Hold it and say: end this, and we give it back. This is for our kids and grandkids. No nuclear Iran.

1/ Kellogg: Russia and China are probably helping Iran as much as they can. This is no longer a military fight.

It is a political fight, a gut-check moment: are we closing them out or not? Trump has put real effort into negotiations, but now the question is how to finish this.

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Zelenskyy: It’s a pity Crimea is not back on the table, or NOT YET. Land matters: it is our territory, history and homes.

Saving people comes first. Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and diplomacy. Putin wants 500,000 more soldiers this autumn while losing 30,000 a month.

1/ Zelenskyy: Putin said he would occupy Ukraine in two or three days.

Now Ukraine has built a great miltech industry: 500 companies with strong technologies and soldiers holding the front. Putin loses 30,000 soldiers a month. The initiative is no longer in Putin’s hands.

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Trump’s administration told Congress it will not finish spending $400mn in approved Ukraine aid until fiscal 2029, the year Trump leaves office.

Reuters: Kyiv is critically low on weapons needed to defend against Russian missile attacks. 1/ Pentagon letter: The funds would be obligated in fiscal 2026, but final delivery is estimated for the year ending Sept. 30, 2029.

Reuters source: Two months after the letter, the money still had not been disbursed or even put on contract. 2/

Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Khmara: Ukraine’s deep strikes and drone campaigns must cost about 2% of the damage they cause Russia.

We can’t go punch for punch with Russia. We have to be asymmetric, interview with Laura Loomer.

1/ Khmara: Don’t send someone where you’re not ready to go yourself.

Soldiers know I would never ask them to take a risk I would not take myself.

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Ukraine wants to end its reliance on the US-made Patriot and build a cheaper European system of its own, codenamed Freyja.

Kyiv wants a prototype ready by the first half of 2027, with Russian ballistic missiles now outpacing its dwindling supply of interceptors — Reuters. 1/ Ukraine depends almost entirely on US-made Patriots, the only weapon in its arsenal that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles flying at several times the speed of sound.

Patriot supplies keep slipping on political volatility, low stocks, and a long production cycle. 2/

Rutte: Ukraine is exceeding our expectations. Now Putin must end the bloodbath and come to the negotiating table.

President Trump plays a crucial role. He is the one Putin looks to for leadership, and he is providing that leadership.

1/ Rutte: Trump got Europe and Canada to boost defense spending toward U.S. levels, adding a quarter-trillion dollars.

Presidents since Eisenhower tried and failed to do this. On Ukraine, Trump and Zelenskyy will discuss more pressure on Putin to get him to the table.

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McFaul: Ukraine plans to produce 7 million drones in 2026. That lets Ukraine strike deep inside Russia and changes the war.

Ukraine has cards now. Trump can help with more interceptors and restore military aid he cut to near zero.

1/ McFaul: Trump’s team is no longer pushing Zelenskyy to give up Donbas. Putin believed he got that promise in Alaska.

Zelenskyy resisted months of pressure, and Washington moved away from it. A deal without Donbas will be hard, but this shift matters.

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Sikorski: Russia has sold 44 tonnes of gold, about half its reserve.

It’s a sign Moscow is running low on resources. This winter may be Putin's last chance to break Ukraine, so Europe's help decides if Ukraine wins. 1/ Sikorski: Rubio's call with Lavrov lasted 37 minutes. I don't see grounds to expect a breakthrough from that.

Real progress needs Putin himself to lower his ambitions about conquering Ukraine, and I don't believe that's happening. 2/

Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, hid military goods from war-related searches after Ukrainian drones hit seven warehouses since July 18.

Search for "everything for the SVO," Russia's war euphemism, returned 200k products. Now it shows none — Kyiv Independent. 1/ Wildberries sells dual-use gear that Russian troops use against Ukraine, including bulletproof vests and fiber-optic cable for drones.

Kyiv said it struck the warehouses to disrupt Russian army logistics. Wildberries is often compared to Amazon for its reach across Russia. 2/

Former British Army Colonel Ingram: Russia wants Ukraine to capitulate, pause the war, restore foreign ties, rebuild its army and strike again.

It will come back for another slice of Ukraine, Georgia or elsewhere. Moscow plays for generations; the West plays by elections.

1/ Ingram: It is too early to say Putin’s inner circle is turning on him. Putin controls them.

If one speaks against him, he tends to have an “accident,” usually a ninth-floor window. Putin is oligarch-in-chief: he lets them keep money and corruption, or he takes them out.

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Kapustin, commander of Ukraine's Russian Volunteer Corps: What breaks a captured Russian soldier isn't our gear. It's that after four days drinking from puddles, we hand him water from our own hands.

That's when something cracks. 1/ Kapustin: Russian POWs from Vovchansk arrive with frostbitten feet, some missing toes.

Sent out for weeks without winter gear, they wrap their feet in foil thermal blankets, thinking it's waterproof. One captured 18-year-old lost several toes after being sent to fetch snow. 2/

Who else but Ukraine can shut the Black Sea to Russia with naval and aerial drones? In 18 days in July, Ukraine hit 196 vessels

Russia’s Azov oil-product exports stopped. In Black Sea ports, exports fell nearly in half to 1 million tons. Tanker calls dropped from 55 to 27, EP.1/ Together with strikes on Russian refineries, these attacks stopped exports of key oil products.

Russia no longer exports gasoline. Jet fuel exports stopped. Diesel shipments fell to 4% of the level before Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, oil sites, and logistics.

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Tetiana Teplyuk, a 70-year-old Ukrainian Azov medic: You can't describe what you feel hearing a scream like thr ones in Russian captivity.

You curse and hate everything in the world. All we could do was clench our fists and repeat, Lord have mercy, knowing no one would. 1/ Teplyuk: The guards came running, shouting, slamming our ventilation windows shut.

One of them, Kirill, screamed at us: everyone shut up, or I'll pull you out and shoot you. Then he ran off laughing. 2/

Fire Point co-founder Shtilierman: Our mega-plan is to reach three ballistic missiles a day by the end of the year.

Roughly 90 missiles a month, like Russia.

1/ Shtilierman: A Ukrainian drone flies to Moscow, and Russia fires three Pantsirs at it. None hit. Three Pantsirs against one drone.

Then they tried to shoot down Morok and missed, making that famous “roof” over Moscow. Do not underestimate Russia, but do not overestimate it either.

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Michael Clarke: Syrskyi was trained in the Soviet military and tends to think in a Soviet way.

But he saved Kyiv in 2022, planned the successful Kharkiv counteroffensive and later designed Ukraine’s operation in Kursk. 1/ Clarke: At the front, Syrskyi sometimes is called a butcher. People accuse him of throwing troops into assaults like Soviet and Russian generals.

That criticism can be unfair. Sometimes commanders must hold ground despite knowing an operation will cost many lives. 2/

Hodges: Ukraine has a real chance to recover all of Crimea. Its long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas damage Russia’s ability to sustain the war and wreck its economy.

Russia controls ships under the Kerch Bridge because it fears Ukraine could ram or blow it up.

1/ Hodges: To liberate Crimea, Ukraine has to isolate it. Ukraine is destroying bridges, fuel ships, ferries and mainland logistics from Azov to northern Crimea.

Then Ukraine makes Crimea untenable by hitting airfields, naval sites, air defenses, radar and logistics.

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Kasparov: Ukrainians live in a true democracy because they trust it depends on them. When Zelenskyy fired Fedorov, public protests forced him to backtrack.

Trump is undermining Americans' faith in their own elections. To see where that leads, look at Russia - The WP. 1/ Kasparov: Ukraine and Russia work as a natural experiment. They share a language, media, and a tangled history, so governance is what pulls them apart.

After the Soviet collapse in 1991, the Donbas border barely existed, and the region lived in the same Russian-speaking world as Russia. 2/

Loomer: Ukraine’s government did not pay me to come here. I’d sign an affidavit.

I put my business on hold for two weeks and came to a war zone to see it myself. I used to be a keyboard warrior too. Then I came to Ukraine.

1/ Loomer: I was anti-Ukraine for years. I followed RT on Telegram. Then I saw “woke right” podcasters turn on Trump and push antisemitic rhetoric.

Where do they get this? RT was clipping and pushing many of their videos.

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Zelenskyy: I respect Fedorov and Syrskyi. But deep-strike success was never about one person.

Credit goes to our army, our secret service, and our special forces, especially sea-drone operations. Soldiers carry out operations, not somebody else.

1/ Zelenskyy: I had a big problem, not for days or weeks, for months, in the dialogue between the chief of the army and the chief of the ministry of defense.

The challenge was mobilization: Russia could have 500,000-plus people by October, and I needed unanimity between them. 2/

Zelenskyy: If you think you can use only drones and don't need soldiers, no, you will fail.

If you don't have a soldier on the front, the enemy infiltrates, and you lose the village, then the next village, then the city. 1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine's war effort runs on soldiers, civilians, and the partners who fund it.

500 companies inside Ukraine now produce the drones behind our deep-strike and mid-strike operations. 2X