Kasparov: If Russia crosses into Estonia or Finland — NATO formally needs Article 5, Brussels, the American general reports to Washington.

The question is: will Trump not be playing golf at that moment?

1/ Kasparov: I see zero signs that Russia is ready for any negotiation process — not in propaganda, not in the economy, not in statements from Putin, Lavrov or Peskov.

Maybe I missed something. But so far we see exactly the opposite vector.

2/

Queues stretch up to nine miles beyond Crimea's checkpoints. 79% of hotel bookings cancelled. Fuel sold on Telegram at $25 a gallon. Blackouts last for days. Water available one hour a day.

Putin's "sacred" peninsula has become a burden. — The Telegraph.

1/ Ukraine struck 50 energy facilities in Crimea between July 1–8. Hit 76 shadow-fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov this week. Long-range strikes jumped 1,150% in 2026.

Six choke-point bridges under attack. Russian authorities suspended all fuel sales to private individuals.

2/

Browder: Trump is both U.S. president and a businessman.

It wouldn't be a leap to say Putin could have made lucrative business offers in exchange for less support for Ukraine. I don't see a better theory for what's happening.

1/ Browder: The U.S. told Gulf allies not to buy Ukrainian drone technology.

I have heard this from sources I trust, and I believe Trump did not want Ukraine to benefit. Europe should instead invest in Ukrainian defense technology through joint ventures and production.

2X

Browder: Ukraine has damaged 25–40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.

If it doubles that, it can tell Russia: stop bombing our civilians, and we stop hitting your refineries. Ukraine has also turned the front line into a drone kill zone where crossing is deadly.

1/ Browder: We should not underestimate Russia.

It still has a much larger population, deeper financial resources, and bigger ammunition stockpiles than Ukraine.

Even if Russian forces in Crimea collapse, Ukraine may still lack the troops needed to retake it.

2/

For the first time since 2022, Ukraine has a coherent theory of victory. Instead of grinding down the Russian army at huge cost, Kyiv now destroys Russia's capacity to wage war.

It targets the revenue, fuel, and the supply lines that feed the front — Christian Caryl, FP. 1/ Former DM Zagorodnyuk calls this strategic neutralization. Render Russian forces ineffective by cutting their support, rather than storming their positions.

The proof of concept is the Black Sea Fleet. Naval drones drove it from Sevastopol without a single Ukrainian warship. 2/

Browder: Putin started a war because he stole so much money that he became afraid of his own people.

The easiest way to stop people turning against you is to create a foreign enemy. That is Machiavelli 101. 1/ Browder: If Putin used a nuclear weapon, he still would not win the war.

Ukraine is too large and too dispersed. China and the Global South would step away, and Putin would become a fully defined war criminal. 2/

Browder: Ukrainians were never Russia's enemy.

The Kremlin manufactured that enemy. It called Ukrainians Nazis and fascists and accused them of things they never did. Crimea then sent Putin's approval ratings through the roof. 1/ Browder: Putin has been stealing since his days in the St. Petersburg mayor's office.

Putin and about a thousand people around him stole one trillion dollars from the Russian state before the war. 2X

Browder: Putin will never negotiate an end to the war.

Russia does not do diplomacy. Everything is win or lose. Nobody should negotiate with Putin because he will stop only when somebody stops him. 1/ Browder: Putin can't leave power. If he ends this war, he won't be in power anymore.

He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs power to stay alive. That is why negotiations aren't going to go anywhere. 2X

McFaul: Trump used to tell Zelenskyy: You don't have the cards. Zelenskyy answered: This is not a game, this is a war.

Now Trump sees that Zelenskyy has cards. The balance of power is changing, and that is why he may be more willing to help Ukraine. 1/ McFaul: The West's biggest mistake was worrying too much about what Putin thought.

That started long before the full-scale invasion. It was a mistake at the Bucharest NATO summit, during the war against Georgia and in the response that followed. 2/

McFaul: Putin is weak.

A strong leader gets information and makes new decisions based on it. Putin doesn't.

He gets information only from the FSB, SVR and the red folders they prepare for him. 1/ McFaul: A strong leader does not fear independent society or Alexei Navalny. Putin feared Navalny. He fears independent organizations. Fear is a sign of weakness, not strength. 2/

Mark Carney: Russia is a direct adversary.

The threats we face are changing rapidly, from hybrid warfare to hypersonic missiles and autonomous warfare. 1/ Carney: Burdens are shifting away from the United States, towards Canada and Europe.

Before I became Prime Minister 18 months ago, we spent 1.5% of GDP on defense. It now goes to 4% in the next two years. 2/

Saakashvili, ex-president of Georgia: The Ankara agreement gives Ukraine a Patriot license, but bureaucracy and production setup will take months.

Ukrainian Patriots will not appear before next year, Ukrainska Pravda. 1/ Saakashvili: Putin trapped himself. If he agrees to a ceasefire, Russia becomes a North Korea and a satellite of China.

While Putin remains in power, there will be no ceasefire; the war will sharply escalate. 2/

The billionaires who got rich under Putin are starting to get nervous.

Andrey Melnichenko, Russia’s biggest industrialist, says the war is breaking Russia's economy — and if nothing changes, the country ends up broke, isolated, or run by China, The Economist. 1/ Melnichenko is not anti-Putin opposition. He is an insider whose factories supported the war economy. Like most oligarchs, he lived by Putin’s rules: make money, but keep out of politics.

He speaks now because tycoons can no longer ignore the rot. 2/

Putin is pretending he is crazy and will never stop.

He is a rational player. At some point he will stop. But first, Russia must feel five to ten times more pain than it does now, I told the WSJ. 1/ Ukraine struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, more than 1,500 miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Russia left Omsk without air defence because it considered the refinery out of Ukraine's reach. Ukrainian drones hit its crude distillation unit. 2/

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Vandier: Patriot production is limited — the US can't supply the Gulf, Pacific, and Europe at once.

We need more from all sources. Ukrainians are already building their own ABM system. 1/ Vandier: NATO acquires massive deep precision strike ammunition. Expensive weapons hit hardened targets.

Cheap mass-produced ammo saturates the front. Any massive troop gathering sits under a strike umbrella. That's deterrence by denial.

2/

Zaluzhnyi: Do not assume Russia has lost the war.

Russia has not achieved its original political objectives. But it still fights, occupies substantial Ukrainian territory, and shows no intention of accepting terms that would mean defeat, — for Telegraph. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine cannot yet claim outright victory either.

Kyiv has stopped Russia’s main goals and damaged its economy and military. But Ukraine still depends heavily on Western money, weapons, technology, and air defense. 2/

A Russian ex-convict spent a decade in Ukraine under a fake identity, built weapons for the front, and married three women who never knew his real name.

Now Interpol wants him, and Ukraine may hand him over. His real name is Ruslan Puptaev, Babel. 1/ Born 1987 in Kyrgyzstan, raised in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region. Convicted twice — theft at 16, assault at 19.

Russian courts gave him 9 years. 2/

For the first time since the 2022 mobilisation, ordinary Russians are scared. Petrol is rationed and Ukrainian drones hit refineries far from the front.

55% now say people around them feel anxious, up from 40% a year ago. The war has reached everyone — The Economist. 1/ Drone attacks once hit only cities like Kursk and Belgorod. On July 6th Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, 2,500 km from the front.

The southbound Moscow trains that once carried families to the sea now run spookily empty, crowded with uniforms. 2/

Stubb: Russia won't end this war from economic pain or battlefield losses — 1 dead Ukrainian to 8 Russians.

What changes it: Russian population turning against the war. Oil strikes, cancelled Crimea summer camps, internet shutdowns. Pressure forces ceasefire and negotiations. 1/ Stubb: US foreign policy is transactional right now — they'd say so themselves.

They sanctioned Rosneft earlier, hitting Russia hard. Now they're reversing that decision.

2/

Volker, ex US-NATO Amb.: Zelenskyy has figured out how to deal with Trump.

By making clear that Ukraine wants a ceasefire and wants to end the war, he puts the spotlight on Putin, who doesn't. That gives Trump the best chance to pressure Russia. 1/ Volker: Europe needs Ukraine inside NATO. Russia is a threat to all of Europe.

Ukraine is already one of Europe's most capable countries in defending Europe, fighting Russia and producing the defence technology, industry and know-how everybody will need. 2/

Petr Pavel: Ukraine may have about two months to force talks before Russia’s September elections.

After Sept. 20, Putin could declare a general mobilisation and shrink the window for peace, — The Telegraph. 1/ Pavel: Putin is unlikely to mobilise before parliamentary elections because it would be deeply unpopular. But once the vote is over, the political cost changes. 2/