For four years, Putin tried to shield Russians from the war through silence and euphemisms.

Now drones hit Moscow, fuel shortages affect at least 56 regions.

Whatever officials do, they still avoid saying what is happening, — NYT. 1/ The war is still officially a Special Military Operation.

Fuel shortages are blamed on “unscheduled maintenance at refineries.”

Military spending becomes “structural transformation of the economy.” Language is used as a shield. 2/

Fedorov: During the latest mass attack on Kyiv, Ukraine intercepted about 95% of Shaheds — around 600 were launched.

Against cruise missiles, the interception rate can also reach 80–90% when Ukraine has enough F-16s and enough missiles to cover the whole country.

1/ Fedorov: Ukraine is investing heavily in cheap missiles to prepare for winter and bad weather, when interceptor drones face limits.

During the main mass attack, about 75% of Shaheds were intercepted by interceptor drones.

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Putin spent 10 minutes naming streets in Donetsk villages in a state TV interview — and described an encirclement near Rubtsi that no reliable source confirms exists.

There is no river called Stary Oskol in that region. — Simon Shuster, The Atlantic.

1/ 81% of Russians want the war to end "as early as tomorrow."

Those who want to fight until victory dropped to 9% — the lowest ever recorded by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia across 10 rounds of polling since 2022.

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Zelenskyy: We are thankful to the American team for transfer of anti ballistic missiles, but for today it is too slow.

We don’t know what Putin will do. We are asking President Trump and his team: we don’t need too many words. You see what does it mean when the packages come? 1/ Zelenskyy: Europe, the United States and many other countries live from election to election. That is understandable. But please, the priority must be saving lives. 2/

Russians feel the war’s hardships as Ukraine pummels Crimea — WSJ.

For more than four years, Putin tried to keep most Russians away from the costs of war.

Ukrainian drones hit power and fuel sites. Gasoline sells for $25 a gallon on black market. 1/ Ukraine calls the campaign “long-range sanctions.”
The target is the peninsula Russia annexed in 2014 and presented as a showcase of Putin’s imperial project.
The effect is direct: fuel shortages, power cuts, transport disruption and a falling tourist season. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia designed this strike to cause maximum damage: ballistic missiles, waves of Shaheds and other drones, dozens of cruise missiles.

Ukraine shot down 48 missiles and 476 drones overnight, but not all. We need more Patriots and anti-ballistic systems.

1/ Zelenskyy: Air defense must be a key result of the NATO summit. Europe must have enough capacity to defend itself from every threat, including Russian ballistic missiles.

We have long discussed licenses for Patriot production with the U.S. administration.

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Kellogg: Putin just wants power. The Soviets left Afghanistan after losing 18,000 soldiers. Putin has lost 1.2 to 1.4 million.

Americans would never accept that. But he keeps going because he thinks he can occupy all of Ukraine. He is not winning.

1/ Kellogg: Europe’s security will no longer be built only around Germany, France, and the UK.

It will shift east — through Finland, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, and Romania. Ukraine will be the Sparta of Europe, with an army of 800,000. Nobody else has that.

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"Who could have imagined Colombians fighting North Koreans in Kursk region? Our Colombians beat them well enough."

Captain Hamlet Avagyan, an Armenian, commands a Ukrainian assault regiment built mostly of foreign fighters, UkrPravda. 1/ Captain Hamlet Avagyan leads the R.U.G. assault regiment under Khartiia, a Ukrainian National Guard unit.

Foreign fighters make up most of the unit. In August 2024, R.U.G. joined Ukraine's surprise push into Russia's Kursk region. 2/

Ukrainian soldiers rinsed their mouths with water from a fire extinguisher and ate rations they took off the Russians they killed to survive in the encirclement.

Russians poisoned them with gas, thinking these were elite forces. Ukrainians held their position for 109 days.

1/ Anton, one of the Ukrainian soldiers: My neck, arms and back started burning. I jumped out with my rifle and saw a drone. I started shooting, tears streaming.

The grenade was self-made. Chlorine-based powder inside. It smells of acid, eats through everything.

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Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Fedorov: Today, the Ukrainian army is the most prepared in Europe. Where else would you find troops able to destroy 30,000 to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month?

Putin has to feel the cost is too high to continue, Politico.

1/ Fedorov: If we have enough resources to launch a new cycle of war innovations before Russia adapts to the current one, we will get another six months.

We need the next level of aid to be able to finish the job. 2/

Petraeus: No western country is aggressively pursuing what needs to be pursued. A major German defense CEO belittled what the Ukrainians have done with drones.

Europeans will spend more on defense, but buy legacy platforms. Vested interests in buying what we've always bought. 1/ Petraeus: A senior army leader said they're giving 500 drones to a tank brigade. That is not revolutionary change.

Revolutionary change is you actually do away with part of the tank brigade and create entire unmanned forces that can do what we see in Ukraine so impressively. 2/

Petraeus: Ukraine is about to isolate Crimea. Gasoline so short they won't sell it to civilians. Tourists who came for beaches are trying to get home any way they can

Kerch Bridge rail no longer works. Ferries knocked out. Land bridges destroyed. Pontoon bridges now targeted 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine took down Russia's air defenses steadily. Russia pulls them to Moscow, vulnerabilities open everywhere else. Moscow refinery hit three nights running, out at least six months.

They're going after fuel storage, refineries, gas lines from Siberia to the west. 2/

Petraeus: The death zone in Ukraine extends 35 kilometers on either side of the front lines — defined by drone battery life. Tanks can't survive. Armored vehicles can't survive. Nothing can.

Neither side even drives vehicles anymore. Russians keep trying and keep proving it. 1/ Petraeus: No trenches, drones fly through. Soldiers in survivability positions hundreds of meters apart, not mutually supporting. Resupplied by ground robots.

Commanders can't visit the front line. Soldiers stay 60+ days. In urban areas, some couldn't be extracted for months 2/

Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.

The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/ Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.

I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/

Hodges: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, I think that's an absolute fairy tale.

None of the oligarchs are suffering. Nobody in the upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg is going to suffer. These are people as spoiled as anybody else. 1/ Hodges: The 90% that are not upper class — they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better.

People counting on Russians being able to just endure more and more are misreading the actual situation. People are starting to wonder what the hell's going on. 2/

Ex-UK Defence Attaché to Moscow, Foreman: Deterrence holds, nuclear and conventional. The biggest threat is unconventional cyber and political interference

Putin doesn't want to escalate from a local war to a regional war with NATO given the uncertainty of what Trump would do 1/ Foreman: I don't exclude Russia escalating versus Ukraine or mobilizing for one last heave.

Putin is very concentrated on winning as he sees it in the Donbas. But as long as deterrence is credible and capable and we communicate it clearly to Russia, we should be safe. 2/

Kellogg: Keep Ukraine's long-range pressure and Crimea's isolation intact through any negotiation — that's the leverage that brings Moscow to a real deal. You don't trade it away for a pause.

Treat Ukraine as a strategic asset, not a security case. 1/ Kellogg: What you end up having is Europe's largest combat-hardened military, 800,000 strong and its defense technology base. Look at drones and what they've done.

That should be anchored to the West, not drift towards China. They are a near-term strategic asset for Europe. 2/

Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.

What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/ Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/

Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.

I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.

1/ Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.

Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.

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16-year-old Tihran Ohannisian moments before his death: "That's it, it's death, guys. Goodbye. Glory to Ukraine."

Russia killed him and his classmate Mykyta Khanhanov after they attacked Russian personnel in occupied Berdyansk on June 24, 2023 — United24.
1/ Russian soldiers had detained Tihran in September 2022, beat him in front of his grandmother, and tortured him with electric shocks for days.

Both boys remained under surveillance for months, formally charged with plotting to sabotage a railway, facing up to 20 years in prison.
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Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/ Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/