Former Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba: China is carrying out an ultra-slow absorption of Russia, starting from the side closest to it.

For Siberian peoples, China is understandable — and they see that where China is, there is welfare and order, while where Russia is, everything is the opposite. 1/ Kuleba: “Russian” is not really an ethnic belonging — it is imperial belonging.

That is why someone who is clearly not ethnically Russian can still shout: “I am Russian, I am for Russia.” The empire works through identity, not blood. 2/

Kasparov: Putin is not just at war against Ukraine. He is at war against Europe, European institutions and the free world.

Dictators lie about what they have done, but very often they tell you exactly what they are going to do. Putin has for decades. 1/ Kasparov: Putin’s goal was, is and will be to restore the Russian Empire and push NATO back to 1997 borders.

Ukraine is the main target now, but not the ultimate goal. Europe still treats this as hypothetical. It is not a threat — it is a menace. 2/

Kasparov: Nothing will happen in Russia unless Ukraine wins the war. Period. Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.

Any war that ends “okay” for Russia strengthens the regime; only Ukrainian victory can open the road to change by proving the empire is dead. 1/ Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war or one inner circle’s war. The mistake after 1991 was thinking the problem was only the communist virus.

The real problem is the imperial virus, mutating in Russia for centuries, and it will not die without defeat. 2/

Putin put a nuclear-capable Oreshnik into Russia’s overnight strike on Kyiv region.

The hypersonic missile hit Bila Tserkva as Moscow launched around 90 cruise and ballistic missiles plus hundreds of drones. 4 people died, at least 80 were injured — Telegraph. 1/ Oreshnik travels 10 times faster than sound and can carry nuclear warheads. Russia had used it before near Dnipro and Lviv with dummy warheads, causing little damage but sending a symbolic threat.

Ukraine said earlier this year Moscow had only 4 of these missiles. 2/

Only death or Russia can depose Putin. Democracies cannot remove him.

They can still defeat his external ambitions. The only language he understands is military and economic force backed by political will — Timothy Garton Ash, The Guardian. 1/ Putin wants to subjugate Ukraine, restore the Russian empire, destroy NATO's credibility, undermine the EU, and rebuild a Russian sphere of influence over eastern Europe.

To prevent each of these is to defeat him. 2/

Ukraine is building air defense to intercept 95% of Russian air threats.

Interceptor drones doubled their Shahed kill rate in 4 months, while Russia launched 35% more Shaheds per month — United24. 1/ The Defense Ministry works on three lines, protecting the skies, stopping Russia on the ground, and draining the Russian economy.

The aim is to force Russia to negotiate through sustained pressure. 2/

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: Ukraine’s victory is not just a line on a map.

Victory is preserving an independent, sovereign, European Ukraine: not absorbed by Russia, not controlled by Russia, and not part of the Russian world. 1/ Kuleba: Putin’s death could seriously break the course of this war.

Apart from Putin and maybe Patrushev, there is no one in Russia’s elite for whom destroying Ukrainian statehood is the meaning of life at this level of obsession. 2/

Petraeus: The U.S. has not remotely learned the lessons it should from Ukraine.

This is the future of war: Ukraine alone uses 10,000 drones a day, and 90% of Russian casualties are caused by drones. That should force institutional change. 1/ Petraeus: Tanks cannot maneuver anymore. Armored vehicles cannot survive.

You cannot even drive vehicles in the 35-km death zone on either side of the front, because drones can fly into trenches and kill people. This is a vast change. 2/

Fukuyama: The key issue was Taiwan.

A $14B arms package was held up, and Trump seemed to see Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip” with Beijing — trading an ally’s security for economic advantage while repeating false claims about Taiwan stealing U.S. chip technology. 1/ Fukuyama: The optics showed how far Trump had fallen in Chinese eyes.

Xi did not meet him at the airport, Trump was seated to look smaller, and the worst part was Trump’s constant flattery — calling Xi a great leader, a friend, someone from central casting. 2/

A Russian drone is still outside my window. And air-defense machine guns are working a hundred yards away.

This night Russia attacked Kyiv again.

For the first time, our university KSE, was hit.

One staff member was injured. No one in our community was killed, thank God. 1/ Windows and doors in two main buildings are shattered.

The team is checking for structural damage.

So far, I have no reports of any more student, staff or faculty injuries. But one apartment and one house are destroyed, another apartment damaged. 2/

Putin "may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength anymore," Estonia's intelligence chief said.

In 4 to 5 months, Russia may lose the leverage it still has on the battlefield — CNN. 1/ Russia bleeds men it cannot replace, and the Kremlin avoids decisions that would stabilize the front.

Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service: "I do not hear any more talk about total victory."

Russians recognize the battlefield is not going well. 2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: It is now easier and cheaper to reach a person or object deep in the rear than to move the front line by 20 meters.

New weapons shift war from destroying military potential to destroying the state itself. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: Cheap, mass weapons with no reliable physical protection have changed war.

They allow any state — or even organization — to use new force against any opponent. The line between front and rear has almost disappeared. 2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine can no longer be part of any gray zone.

Our experience shows that if you agree to become a buffer zone, you should wait for war. It is already moving toward you — first hidden, then openly. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: In a war where the price is the life of an entire nation, compromise may simply stop existing.

You cannot be a little killed or half alive — and you cannot accept conditions that mean helping finish off your own state. 2/

Bolton: The only way to deal with Iran on oil and Hormuz is for the U.S. and Gulf Arabs to force the Strait open.

That is how you restore deterrence against Tehran turning access on and off like a light switch. 1/ Bolton: The six-week ceasefire benefited only Iran.

It let the regime get back up, dig out arsenals and storage sites, and reportedly restart drone production, maybe ballistic missiles too. That shows the IRGC’s real mission is regime survival. 2/

Bolton: Ukrainian strikes inside Russia undercut Kremlin propaganda.

They show ordinary Russians the war is not going well — not only by causing real military damage, but by making the reality of the war visible on Russian territory. 1/ Bolton: Russia expected significant territorial gains this spring, and that has not happened.

If anything, Russia has lost territory in Ukraine. By August or September, Putin may need another plan because the current strategy is not working. 2/

Kasparov: Russians are not angry because Russia committed a crime against Ukraine. They are angry because Putin cannot win.

They do not criticize him for killing Ukrainians — they criticize him for killing too few and too slowly. 1/ Kasparov: Russian history forgives tsars and dictators for war, repression and violence as long as the state looks strong.

But a war that starts and is not won always leads to shocks. Eventually comes the phrase: the tsar is not real. 2/

Kasparov: Ukraine hits targets tied to Russia’s war machine, not civilians. Russia hunts civilians to terrorize and break morale.

Ukraine hits military logistics. These are two fundamentally different concepts of war — and now it happens almost every night. 1/ Kasparov: The strikes on Moscow have huge psychological meaning. War has returned to the place where it started.

Putin kept Moscow calm for four years while war became profitable business; now that illusion is breaking — and politically dangerous. 2/

Russia is firing Soviet missiles containing depleted uranium into Ukrainian villages.

After a strike in Chernihiv Oblast, Ukrainian investigators found radiation levels 40-240x above normal background near an unexploded R-60 missile, The Telegraph. 1/ Ukraine’s SBU says the missile contained Uranium-235 and Uranium-238.

Investigators recorded gamma radiation at 12 microsieverts per hour. Normal background levels range between 0.05 and 0.3. 2/

Russia pledges to support Cuba after Trump openly talked about taking the island and the DOJ charged former president Raúl Castro.

Kremlin condemned the US for "blackmail" and "gross interference" in Cuba's affairs and promised Havana "active support," Politico. 1/ The US moves to block Venezuelan oil shipments and punish foreign companies working with Havana triggered severe fuel shortages and blackouts across Cuba. 2/

Russia’s war machine increasingly runs on Chinese components, Chinese drones, Chinese machine tools, and Chinese chemicals — while Beijing officially claims neutrality.

Putin arrived in Beijing as the dependent partner, The Economist. 1/ Chinese semiconductors and microelectronics are now critical for Russian missile and drone production.

They power precision-guided weapons striking Ukrainian cities, while China also dominates the FPV drone supply chain Russia relies on. 2/

Ukraine is launching one of its largest security operations near Belarus since the start of the war amid fears Russia may again try to attack Kyiv from the north.

The operation involves the military and SBU across border regions with Belarus and Russia, Bloomberg. 1/ Ukraine says agents will search buildings, inspect vehicles, restrict movement, and hunt for spies and sabotage groups.

The SBU calls the operation “unprecedented in scale” in personnel and resources deployed. 2/