Niall Ferguson: If the United States is going to learn anything from what happened in the Black Sea, a lot of damage can be done with some fairly basic sea drones.

The Ukrainians created enough risk that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been knocked out of the war. 1/ Ferguson: If U.S. is going to help the fleet insurers, they're going to have to step up on a much larger scale. The fiscal constraints of the U.S. are real.

Any great power that's spending more on interest payments on its debt than on defense will not be great indefinitely. 2/

“Do you wish to continue serving in the Russian Federation?” — “Why the fuck would I?”
That was 18-year-old cadet Dmytro Klymovych answering the Russian officer who seized their academy in Sevastopol. 1/ He was one of the cadets who sang the Ukrainian anthem while Russians raised their flag. During the full-scale invasion Russians took him prisoner — beating him day and night. Now he is home, making up for lost time with his son — Hromadske. 2/

“We must face reality — the West has split.”

Finland’s President Stubb: “Salvage what you can” of the trans-Atlantic alliance as Trump’s policies fracture relations with Europe and weaken pressure on Russia, Telegraph. 1/ Stubb: “I’m more pessimistic now, in that sense, more realistic.”

Stubb admits that Trump’s actions — tariffs, easing Russia sanctions, and acting without allies — have shifted the US policy away from Europe. 2/

A Russian soldier surrendered via Telegram instead of fighting.

POW: I wrote to the “I Want to Live” hotline. A bot took my details and passport. I sent my location. Then they gave a password, passed me to another operator, and connected me with someone on the ground.

1/ POW: I came from conscription, spent 6–7 months without work. After a fight in the city, four people filed charges.

I got 3 years in a correctional facility and a $8,000 fine. I signed a contract to clear it and debts, but nothing was cleared. They sent me to assault units.

2/

Russian commanders treat their own soldiers like disposable bodies.

They force men to fight each other to death, beat and electrocute them, strip them naked and tie them to trees in freezing cold.

Wounded men on crutches go straight back into assaults – Daily Mail. 1/ Videos show commanders chaining soldiers by the neck inside small boxes and mocking them with food

One man gets a plate thrown at his head while a commander pours water over him and tells him he will die there. Others get forced to crawl through mud while being kicked and hit 2/

Pomerantsev: We’re approaching a moment where discussion about Russia is not about countering disinformation to defend democracy.

But about how to “fuck Russia up,” because in a war you need to to beat the psychological daylight out of our enemy, not just defend democracy. 1/ Pomerantsev: Russia is trying to psych us out.

They’re hitting us with bombardments and then with loads of propaganda to make us feel unsettled and concerned and scared.

The best psychological defense teaches you how to work with your own emotions. 2X

The Economist: after four years of solidarity, Ukraine and Europe are openly fighting. Both sides accused each other of “blackmail.”

In January the Druzhba pipeline was damaged. Zelenskyy blamed Russia and refused to fix it — arguing oil revenues fund the Kremlin’s war. 1/ Orban, running a re-election campaign, used the dispute to block the finalization of the €90bn EU loan to Ukraine. 2/

Ukrainian soldier Mykyta Semenov on Russian captivity:

"Russian: What unit? Semenov: Azov.

Russian: This is the end for you. Your country abandoned you. Look where they brought you. You will never know. You’ll die here. But you have a choice: fight for us." 1/ Semenov: I was captured in May 2022 in Mariupol.

In Olenivka, we started starving. I lost 25 kg. What they gave us to eat — dogs wouldn’t eat, maybe only pigs would. The cereal didn’t digest. Fish head bones. Pasta with rotten green fish. 2/

Russia’s goal is simple: make civilian life unbearable until Ukrainians want to surrender.

This winter alone — 19,000 drones and 738 ballistic missiles. Cost to Russia: roughly $465 million in February alone, writes United24. 1/ Russia produces around 2,700 Geran drones per month at $35,000 each and roughly 150 missiles per month at $1 million each. 2/

Ukraine’s ballistic missile industry is being reborn.

A film producer, an architect, and an IT engineer founded Fire Point in 2022. Today their weapons strike targets 3000 km deep inside Russia — United24. 1/ FP-1 accounts for 59% of Ukrainian long-range strike missions and 54% of confirmed hits. Range: 1,600 km.

Targets: oil refineries in Saratov, Novokuibyshevsk and Volgograd. 2/

US Gen. Grynkewich: Russia invaded Ukraine thinking it would be a two-week war. The hardest part of a short two-week war is the first couple of years.

Putin has learned that because of the problems he's had with fielding a modern and effective force. 1/ Grynkewich: Putin as an autocrat is able to control the information environment in Russia.

So the Russian people are probably not hearing all of the trials and tribulations that their forces are facing or understanding the high casualty rates of the Russian forces. 2/

Trump is considering ending Iran war without reopening Strait of Hormuz.

Would leave other countries to clean up hugely consequential economic quagmire he created. Extraordinary step to withdraw without solving major crisis driving gas prices up at home — Axios. 1/ Trump on Truth Social: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts.

Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded by other Nations who use it — United States does not. If asked, we will help, but it's not necessary." 2/

Russian intelligence proposed staging a fake assassination attempt on Viktor Orban to tilt Hungary’s election — WP.

The goal is to shift the campaign from economic dissatisfaction to fear, security, and stability — and mobilize voters emotionally. 1/ The proposal comes as Orban is trailing over 52% dissatisfied, including rural voters where his party is usually strong.

For Moscow, the stakes are high — Orban has helped block key EU policies and serves as a bridge to U.S. conservatives. 2/

Kurdish militias wait 5 km from Iran border, ready to invade if weakened regime opens path. Trump ruled out enlisting them but may reconsider as war drags on.

Victoria Coates, ex-deputy NSA: "President never takes anything fully off table" — Politico. 1/ PJAK operates from underground tunnel base in Iraq's Zagros Mountains. Part of 6-militia coalition wanting to topple Iran's regime.

Trump said Kurdish groups "willing" to join ground offensive but ruled out idea to avoid making war "more complex." 2/

Russia is considering sending naval patrols to protect shadow fleet after series of Ukrainian attacks.

It may deploy "mobile firing groups" and arm vessels themselves — Nikolai Patrushev, Putin aide and head of Russian Maritime Board — FT. 1/ Kremlin accused Ukraine of setting Russian-flagged Arctic Metagaz LNG tanker ablaze in attack involving unmanned sea drones off Libya earlier this month.

Kyiv claimed responsibility for attack on oil tanker Qendil in Mediterranean in December and several vessels in Black Sea. 2/

Bolton on Trump’s Iran war: $200B funding request moves forward while the war is called “almost over.”

The money likely goes beyond current fighting — rebuilding US weapons stockpiles that were underestimated for years and are now running low, and expanding overall capacity. 1/ Bolton: Trump’s line keeps shifting — threats one day, restraint the next. He’s looking for an exit while presenting the war as nearly finished.

At the same time: no troops promised, but some are already there in non-traditional roles, not regular ground forces. 2/

French navy boarded Russian shadow fleet tanker Deyna in Mediterranean. Flying Mozambique flag, coming from Russian port Murmansk. Documents confirmed doubts about flag validity.

Macron: "We won't let this happen" — AP. 1/ Macron: "These vessels circumvent international sanctions and violate law of sea, are war profiteers. They seek to generate profits and finance Russia's war effort."

Tanker diverted and escorted to anchorage point for further checks. Case referred to prosecutor in Marseille. 2/

"If you are my mum, why can't I remember you?", 4-year-old Yuri asked the woman in the Moscow hotel.

He was just 10 months old when Russia abducted him and his sister from a Kherson orphanage in 2022.

Melania Trump helped get them back — The Times. 1/ Melania helped return 19 Ukrainian children from Russia, including Yuri and Anastasia.

19,951 Ukrainian children are registered as abducted since 2022 — experts believe the true figure is at least 35,000. 2/

Bolton: War with Iran is not won — not with the Strait of Hormuz closed.

The only way to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat, terrorism, and risks to the global economy is regime change. That was Trump’s goal at first, but with him, you never know.

1/ Bolton: Trump’s never understood or truly supported NATO.

Even in 2018 he came close to withdrawing. This kind of behavior is unprecedented and will remain a problem.

2/

Russia plans to shut down Telegram in early April — even as its own military relies on app for all battlefield communication.

"That would be like shooting entire Russian army in the head" — Russian soldier to Politico. 1/ In February SpaceX cut off Starlink terminals used by Russian forces. Traffic inside Ukraine dropped 75%.

Days later Russian authorities began slowing down Telegram nationwide. Roskomnadzor plans full shutdown in April — though not on front line. 2/

“Russian-style methods”

Hungarian operatives gave a Ukrainian detainee a forced injection after seizing Oschadbank vehicles carrying cash and gold.

The drug was likely a relaxant used to make detainees more talkative.

The man lost consciousness after the shot, The Guardian. 1/ Former SBU officer and diabetic suffered a hypertensive crisis and lost consciousness after the injection.

Oschadbank: "Medical help came only after he passed out." Hungary’s lawyer confirmed one man received an injection of unknown contents despite his objections. 2/