Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pitt...
Jul 16 15 tweets 5 min read
Zelenskyy named Ihor Obolenskyi a Hero of Ukraine. He commands Khartiia, a combat unit that fights with drones, robots, scouts and artillery.

In Kupiansk, his Lava unit sent robots and drones instead of soldiers and destroyed a Russian bunker, ammo dump and 10 troops.

1/ Image Callsign: Kornet.

Obolenskyi is from Sumy. He graduated from the Bohdan Khmelnytskyi Military Institute of Missile Forces and Artillery.

2/
Jul 16 5 tweets 2 min read
Azov and Khartiia commanders backed Ihor Klymenko for defense minister.

Khartiia's Obolenskyi: He can turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army and grow arms production.

Azov's Prokopenko: He knows the front, worked on the corps system and can fix mobilization.1/ Image
Image
Obolenskyi: A wartime defense minister must turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army, and grow defense industry.

It is like changing a race car’s wheels while driving. Ihor Klymenko is worthy of this new challenge.

2/
Jul 15 10 tweets 2 min read
Lindsey Graham embodied a political bargain.

He mocked Trump, then became one of his closest allies.

That turn bought Ukraine time and leverage. Trump backed deep strikes into Russia, let Kyiv build Patriot interceptors, and moved toward sanctions bill — Bret Stephens, NYT. 1/ Image Their relationship began with humiliation. In 2015, Trump gave out Graham’s phone number at a rally.

Graham answered by destroying the phone on video: blender, golf club, toaster oven, lighter fluid. 2/
Jul 15 6 tweets 3 min read
Russian POW Maksim (born 2007): I joined the army and stayed. An order is an order. I only saw myself in the army. It is prestigious. It is beautiful. It is a source of pride to be a soldier.

Q: Your motivation was not material?

Maksim: No. 1/ Maksim: I was not interested in the war in Ukraine. I wanted to be a soldier for my country, for my state. But when the order came, I had taken an oath, like any citizen of my country. An order is an order. 2/
Jul 15 6 tweets 3 min read
Fire Point co-founder Shtilierman: When Russia enters a territory, it kills at least 20% of the population.

It happened in the Holodomor, the Baltics, western Ukraine, and Chechnya. If they come here, they will cut down 20% as “prevention.”

1/ Shtilierman: The company’s goal is to help humanity avoid the Fermi paradox and not destroy itself as a civilization.

Russia stands in the way. It fuels war and confrontation to keep Europe from living in peace.

2/
Jul 14 5 tweets 2 min read
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin may decide NATO will not answer strike for strike.

In that case, he could hit logistics chains and transport hubs in Europe that feed supplies into Ukraine. As I remember, there are two major entry points.

1/ Khodorkovsky: I doubt the stories about camouflage nets and taking Kostiantynivka are for Trump. Trump does not care where Kostiantynivka is.

They are for Russians. Putin thinks Russians care about it. They don’t. They care that the war ends on Russia’s terms.

2/
Jul 14 5 tweets 2 min read
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin now has to manage what he never learned: a real economic breakdown.

He knows recruiting and special operations. Now the system’s “pants” are tearing, and he does not know how to stitch them back. 1/ Khodorkovsky: Now a critical amount of refinery capacity is under threat.

If Ukraine keeps striking and Russian air defense keeps missing about 20% of incoming drones and missiles, plants across European Russia, the Urals, and western Siberia will stay at risk. The only fix is a sharp cut in private fuel use.

2/
Jul 14 6 tweets 3 min read
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Civilian cars burn over half of Russia’s gasoline.

To keep freight and emergency services running, Russia must cut civilian fuel use by half or two-thirds. Prices will do the cutting. Ukraine scored a political win.1/ Khodorkovsky: Fuel crisis may grow much worse if Ukrainian strikes continue at today’s scale.

Omsk refinery shows almost all major Russian refineries are within range. Putin seems absent, and Mishustin has vanished into the fog.

2/
Jul 14 11 tweets 3 min read
Kostyantynivka made the Kremlin's ruby-red stars and the glass on Lenin's mausoleum. Now Putin is grinding it into rubble to seize it.

The real prize is leverage over Trump, to argue holding Donbas is futile and Kyiv should concede — Christopher Miller, Financial Times. 1/ Kostyantynivka held about 70,000 people before the war. Around 2,000 remain, living without gas, water, electricity or medical help as food supplies run out.
They shelter in ruined blocks, and Russian drones have cut their movement to almost nothing. 2/
Jul 14 7 tweets 2 min read
For Putin, a ceasefire is a tool to win the war politically. Freeze the front, rebuild the army, break Ukraine's ties with Europe, then strike again.

He did exactly this after Minsk in 2014. — Michael Kimmage & Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.

1/ Image Putin's ceasefire playbook: call for elections in Ukraine, then use subversion to promote corruption narratives about Zelenskyy.

Offer endless circular negotiations. Encourage compliant Europeans to legitimize Russian-occupied territory.

2/
Jul 14 10 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine broke a 300-year rule. Armies won by centralizing weapons — standard parts, a few factories, crates to the front.

Kyiv inverted it via small workshops design a drone, the front reworks it, lessons feed back to industry. Update cycles as short as 3 weeks, — Charles Dainoff, Geoffrey Fain Williams, Robert Farley, FP. 1/Image Ukrainian drones have largely frozen the front and let Kyiv hit Russian logistics deep in the rear. Against an enemy iterating just as fast, an older drone isn't inferior — it's useless. Whoever adapts quicker wins the microcycle. 2/
Jul 14 10 tweets 2 min read
Crimea was supposed to be Putin’s fortress: a military base, Black Sea launchpad, and imperial trophy.

Now its 2.5 million people face blackouts, water cuts, fuel shortages, dead cell service, broken transit, rising prices and a collapsed tourist season, — Politico. 1/ Image Ukraine is now targeting the routes that keep Russia’s forces in the south supplied. The aim is not just to hit Crimea, but to isolate it and weaken Moscow’s position across the southern front. 2/
Jul 14 7 tweets 2 min read
Russia is turning war recruitment into quotas for companies.

In Buryatia, each firm gets a target for workers to send to the front. If it refuses, it must pay 100,000 rubles for every man it keeps, Dozhd. 1/ Image The plan lists each company's headcount, how many men aged 20 to 60 it employs, and how many of them it must send to the war.
A source close to the republic's administration said the district chief gets a target from the regional staff, then splits it across enterprises. 2/
Jul 14 9 tweets 2 min read
Russia and China are planning to break Starlink.

First, block its expansion through regulators and spectrum claims.
Then jam service by region, infect user terminals, and build cheap weapons to kill satellites faster than SpaceX can replace them — The Insider, Der Spiegel. 1/ Image The documents cover 5 areas: space weapons and anti-satellite systems, integrated air and missile defense, autonomous swarm loitering munitions, next-generation armored vehicles and military aviation. 2/
Jul 14 7 tweets 3 min read
Zelenskyy: Eight countries will build an “anti-ballistic Lego” with Ukraine.

France, Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Norway and others bring different parts. Ukraine takes the missile part. Partners bring radars and industry support. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia advanced slowly, then Ukraine pushed back. For 50-55 km, Putin paid 150,000 men.

That is the real war. His ballistic missile strikes only show that he is still waging it.

2/
Jul 13 4 tweets 2 min read
Zelenskyy: We launched a new anti-ballistic program, Freya, to mass-produce anti-ballistic weapons, systems, and missiles.

Today, the anti-ballistic coalition held its first founding meeting.

1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine has a missile, but it is only part of the system.

Together, in the next 12 months, we can build Freya: an affordable anti-ballistic system that closes the gap and gives Europe enough new protection.

2X
Jul 13 6 tweets 3 min read
Volker: Zelenskyy has learned how to deal with Trump. This time [in Ankara] he was disciplined.

He didn't want to talk too much in public. He wanted their private meeting to have a positive tone. He joked a little.

That's the right way to handle things. 1/ Volker: Zelenskyy has an advantage over Russia in drones, counter-drones, electronic warfare, defense tech, innovation and logistics.

Many things that Putin is not able to do. Long-range strikes are hitting Russia's source of money: its oil and gas industry. 2/
Jul 13 4 tweets 2 min read
Ex-CIA officer Wiswesser: Under Putin, Russian intelligence can do no wrong without accountability.

Blow up a DHL plane in Lithuania, set a shopping center on fire in Warsaw or try to kill Rheinmetall's CEO in Germany. That makes it a formidable adversary. 1/ Wiswesser: Russian intelligence understands very little about how the United States works.

It projects its own corruption and political system onto the West. If Putin had understood the West, he should never have invaded Ukraine. 2X
Jul 13 6 tweets 3 min read
Kuleba: Putin is living through his Stalin moment. When everything falls apart around you, you do not give in.

You tighten the screws and double down: nothing can break me. Putin is waiting for winter to crush Ukraine’s energy system and its people’s resilience.

1/ Kuleba: Ukraine asked to build Patriot missiles at home in December 2023. The West takes too long to make obvious decisions.

War is becoming more aerial, and Ukraine will never have enough Patriots to intercept all ballistic missiles.

2/
Jul 13 4 tweets 2 min read
Applebaum: Ukraine does not need a D-Day landing in Crimea.

It needs to make the peninsula unviable: make the settlers who moved there after 2014 question their choice, go home, and undermine Putin’s claim that Crimea is permanently part of Russia.

1/ Applebaum: When Putin took Crimea in 2014, he looked weak and unpopular. Crimea gave Putinism new life.

It made Russians believe Russia could be great again, revived imperial feelings, and gave Putin the achievement he points to.

2X
Jul 13 5 tweets 2 min read
Applebaum: Russians say they have no fuel, can’t do their jobs, and don’t know what comes next. But ordinary Russians have little impact on the Kremlin.

Don’t view Russia through a democratic lens. Propaganda says Russia is winning; reality says Russians are worse off.

1/ Applebaum: Putin mentioned a town that doesn’t exist and described a settlement as surrounded, with no evidence.

Either he makes things up, or someone misinforms him about the battlefield. He may be delusional, or his circle feeds him what he wants to hear.

2/