Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.

What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/ Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/

Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.

I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.

1/ Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.

Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.

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Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/ Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on Lukashenko entering the war: Can't exclude it. He was close, exercises, running around in uniform. Then someone explained where the strikes would land. He reversed

Putin is pushing him again. Lukashenko understands, this is the end of his regime 1/ Kuleba on Poland-Ukraine rivalry: Not immediately, but it will go there. Poland will compete with money, we with security capabilities and audacity.

Together we'd dictate our will to Western Europe. I believed in that story very strongly. We are competitors, unfortunately. 2/

Kasparov on Georgia: An inclined plane has only one direction — down — and the speed always increases. After the 2012 elections, Georgia started sliding backward.

Today it is much closer to Russia and Belarus than to Ukraine or Moldova. I fear the situation is already tragic. 1/ Kasparov: Ivanishvili never stopped being a Russian oligarch. Putin says there are no former KGB agents — same applies here. No former oligarchs. Those connections are preserved.

Georgia's behavior is because they orient toward Putin and believe his power shields them. 2/

Kasparov: The imperial idea sits deeper than communism in Russia. Communist dictatorship lasted 74 years. The imperial idea has lived for centuries. It mutates, transforms, you can't simply pull it out

You need a shock and I believe there is only one such shock that will work 1/ Kasparov: The only thing that can make Russians understand the empire is dead — a Ukrainian flag in Sevastopol. Crimea is the sacred core of the imperial idea.

Liberation of Crimea is exactly the shock needed for Russians to realize: it's over. Start again from scratch. 2/

Bolton: Iran and North Korea got the same Chinese nuclear weapon designs from A.Q. Khan. Same enrichment technology. Both programs share the same basis from the very beginning.

North Korea built a reactor clone in Syria's desert for Iran. Israel found and destroyed it in 2007 1/ Bolton: Iran is oil-rich and has no nuclear weapons. North Korea is one of the poorest countries on earth — it has detonated six nuclear devices.

How hard is it to imagine Iran contracts out its nuclear work to North Korea, under some mountain we can't see through? 2/

Zelenskyy: Putin can tell his TV audience he controls everything, that there's fuel, that his ministers are competent.

But Russians in gas lines across the country can see for themselves — their "three-day war" is now in year five, and even the oil state has a fuel deficit. 1/ Zelenskyy: This is a direct consequence of war. We return the reality of war to Russia and make it as difficult as possible to continue the occupation.

Our long-range sanctions plan is being executed. We strike precisely, not with terror. We target the system, not civilians. 2/

Estonian PM Michal: Russia has more men under arms now than at the start of the war. What happens when fighting stops?

They won't become teachers. They'll go to Europe, Asia, Africa. We had Wagner before and during the war. Do you want these people at home, in your country? 1/ Michal: If anyone thinks investing 5% of GDP in defense is easy, it's not. Takes a heavy toll on any government. But it has to be done.

Estonia is at 5.4% this year. Poland 5 to 6%. Latvia, Lithuania the same. We're showing that this is real money, real decisions, real steps. 2/

Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine, Taylor: While we weren't looking, Ukraine took the initiative. Taking more land back than Russia takes. More deep strikes into Russia than Russia fires into Ukraine.

Killing more Russians than Russia can recruit. That's the momentum shift. 1/ Taylor: Ukraine has cut off fuel and ammunition for the Russian military in Crimea. They're threatening the last connection — the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian drones can now take out.

They are the masters of the drones. And Crimea is being squeezed from every direction. 2/

Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.

In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/ Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"

That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.

But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.

1/ Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.

But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.

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Trump threatened a 100% tariff on any European country that imposes a tax on US tech firms. The tariff would take effect immediately.

It would override every trade deal those countries had already signed with US, including the EU tariff pact reached in May — The Guardian. 1/ Trump: Any country that imposes such a tax will be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America.

He said numerous European countries had discussed the tax and some were close to actually doing it. A larger EU-US trade war could follow. 2/

Between 2023 and 2024, sabotage attacks across Europe nearly tripled. The year before, they quadrupled.

Russia runs these attacks through ordinary people who never learn they serve Moscow — a Telegram admin, an attractive stranger, a fellow conspiracy theorist, United24. 1/ After the 2018 Skripal poisoning and the 2022 expulsions, Moscow lost most of its career agent networks in the West.

Russian intelligence adapted instead of shrinking. It now hires disposable operatives to cut costs, dodge blame, and scale sabotage almost without limit. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on why Putin won't go nuclear: No guarantee Ukraine surrenders. If Ukraine doesn't break after a nuclear strike, it backfires catastrophically.

The rocket falls on Ukraine but the effect hits Russia. They used everything and Ukraine still didn't break. 1/ Kuleba: China will stop him. The first wartime nuclear use since 1945 lifts the taboo for everyone. Israel can nuke Iran. Pakistan can nuke India.

China needs a controlled world, not nuclear chaos. China has leverage over Russia — despite always saying it doesn't. 2/

A surrounded Ukrainian infantryman amputated his comrade's gangrenous arm with a knife and survived for months on raw pheasants cooked over trench candles.

“Boomer” marked enemy kills with notches on his rifle and stopped counting once he passed a hundred, Ukrainska Pravda.

1/ Russians dropped FPV drones with water bottles wrapped in green tape and notes: "Surrender! You're surrounded. Lay down your weapons, walk out with a white flag." Nobody took the offer.

Boomer: "Captivity is simply not an option for me."

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Kasparov on Putin's biggest miscalculation: He was certain that linguistic commonality would outweigh everything and all his advisors believed Russian-speaking Ukrainians would side with Russia

Linguistic commonality proved far less important than people's sense of freedom 1/ Kasparov: Ukraine and Russia diverged in 1994. Russia chose the Chechen war to prolong power. Ukraine had a peaceful transfer, Kravchuk lost the election and left

That moment was critical. People voted and the president left. Ukrainians understood, power comes from the people 2/

Kasparov: My triad since day one of the full-scale war — Ukraine's victory, Russia's defeat, collapse of the empire. That is the only outcome this war can have.

Only the liquidation of Putin. No other options exist. While Putin is there, it is war. Only his liquidation. 1/ Kasparov: An empire cannot retreat. The moment an empire begins retreating — that is its end. This was true for Rome. It was true for every empire. Nothing new here.

It started with Crimea in 2014. It will end with Crimea. Putin and the Russian Empire have merged into one. 2/

Syrskyi: Our main objective is to ensure that the enemy loses more than 1,000 personnel killed or wounded every day.

Ukraine’s war aims: hold territory, kill Russians faster than they can be replaced, destroy logistics with mid-range drones, and bleed Russia’s economy with long-range strikes. 1/ Syrskyi: Russia has lost 183,500 killed or badly wounded troops since January 1.
That number exceeds the 180,500 soldiers Russia is believed to have recruited in the same period. 2/

Silicon Valley is part of Ukraine’s deep-strike war.

A $5,000 AI drone funded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is hitting Russian supply vehicles.

Palantir helps plan deep strikes.
Starlink extends drone range, — The Times. 1/ The AI drone is called Hornet.
It carries a 5 kg warhead and is built by Perennial Autonomy, a U.S. company founded by Schmidt.
Ukrainian videos show it striking Russian trucks that supply forces. 2/

Ex-CIA officer, West: There is no chance of a coup against Putin. Russia is a security state built over 26 years with one purpose, keeping him and his strongmen in power.

300,000 Rosgvardia troops loyal to him. 30,000 elite protective service. All beholden to Putin. 1/ West: Prigozhin was never close. Had he reached Moscow, he'd have hit crack Rosgvardia units whose entire existence — pay, palaces, benefits — depends on Putin.

People say 2023 showed Putin was vulnerable. No, he wasn't. Prigozhin knew he had no chance of overturning him. 2/