A potential scenario: US Marines land on Kharg Island under fire, take cover behind Iran’s oil terminals.

This forces Tehran into a brutal choice — destroy its own economy or let the US control 90% of its oil exports, — Financial Times. 1/ Kharg is where 90% of Iran’s oil is loaded.

Seizing it wouldn’t be symbolic. It would mean controlling the country’s main source of revenue. 2/

Zelenskyy: Trump wants a quick end to the war, but “quick” means at someone’s expense — Russia or Ukraine.

I won’t accept peace at Ukraine’s expense. Leaving the east is a major risk — and a bad peace would also be a risk for Trump.

1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s east and its defense lines are core to our security guarantees.

The idea of trading withdrawal from Donbas for US guarantees is shaped by Russia’s narrative — and it’s dangerous.

2/

In February, Ukraine gained more ground than it lost for first month since 2023, clawing back about 100 square miles in Zaporizhzhia. Now Russia intensifying attacks to retake lost land.

Lt. Col. Gersak: "They are massing and want to push us again" — NYT. 1/ Musk's decision in February to block Russian troops' access to Starlink gave Ukrainian forces brief reprieve from drone assaults and more ease of movement.

This helped Ukraine's counterattack in Zaporizhzhia region. 2/

For Putin, the war in Iran changed everything.

Rising oil prices, easing US sanctions and Western divisions removed pressure on Moscow — halting any momentum toward negotiations on Ukraine, NYT. 1/ At the start of 2026, Russia’s economy was deteriorating.

Oil sold to India at $22 per barrel, about one-third of market rates. High rates, low reserves and falling revenues pointed to bankruptcies and collapse risks. 2/

“$300-$500 and a trip abroad.”

Moldovan recruit Maxim Roșca was promised easy money and travel — then sent to camps in Bosnia and Serbia to train in drones, incendiary devices and protest tactics, Politico.

Recruits were told instructions would come from Moscow. 1/ In camps, they learned to fly drones, drop explosives, evade police and organize unrest — part of a Russia-backed network targeting operations across Europe. 2/

Today I said on CNN:

There’s a 50–60% chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine this year — not soon, but before the US midterms.

If this window closes, the war could last another 1–2 years, with major consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

1/ Me: Russia is using global distraction to Iran to escalate — yesterday’s super major attack hit during the day, when people were at work and in traffic.

We can’t view these wars in isolation — Russia and Iran coordinate on intelligence, technology, and military.

2/

Confidential EU discussions could reach Moscow through AfD access to internal files — Politico

German MPs can access a databank containing thousands of EU documents, including internal notes on sensitive negotiations such as plans to fund Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. 1/ The risk is changing how the EU shares information.

Diplomats are limiting what they say in meetings and adjusting discussions, factoring in that sensitive material could be exposed through existing access channels tied to the German system. 2/

Save Ukraine, charitable foundation, rescued 1,162 Ukrainian children using "underground railroad”. Russia is doing everything to prevent returns, so they use covert operations.

Founder Mykola Kuleba: "It's like special operation for every child" — CNN. 1/ Rostyslav Lavrov, 16, walked out of Russian naval academy in occupied Crimea October 2023. Save Ukraine volunteers waited to pick him up.

Took two days to reach Ukrainian territory. Russian authorities declared him "missing and wanted." 2/

Oleksandr “Teren” Tarnai served nearly 4 years in an assault company. He fought across Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblast, Donetsk Oblast. On February 13, 2026 an artillery shell killed him. He was 35. 1/ He stayed by the vehicle waiting for a tow truck — not wanting to lose a single second delivering his men to the front. His friend, officer Yaroslav Halas of the 128th Brigade, writes about him on Ukrainska Pravda. 2/

In 2025, Mortar hit his position near Kharkiv. Head trauma, coma, stroke. He couldn't breathe on his own.

Doctors said he might not survive the first night

But he did.

This is a Ukrainian veteran, Bohdan Kobylinskyi (24)

Now he's in rehabilitation to regain what he loved

1/ Bohdan dreamed of being an officer since childhood.

Military Lyceum in Kyiv. Aviation University in Kharkiv. Full-scale war started while he was still a student.

He joined the Border Guard. Commanded a drone unit on the Kharkiv front. All this at 23 years.

2/

Ukraine shot down 140,000 Russian missiles, drones and aircraft over 4 years — including 44,000 Shahed-type drones now hitting US bases in the Middle East.

Ukraine sent 200 advisers to the Gulf.

Trump's response: "The last person we need help from is Zelenskyy" — The Times. 1/ Despite Trump's dismissal, US Central Command requested those Ukrainian advisers now deployed in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia.

"It was short-sighted dismissing what Ukraine can contribute in specialist advice," says RUSI's Justin Bronk. 2/

Ukrainian drones are killing Russians faster than Russia can replace them.

A top Ukrainian drone commander “Madyar”: We need to keep milking this cow, exhausting it beyond its maximum capacity — The Economist.

1/ Ukrainian drones killed or incapacitated at least 8,776 more Russian soldiers than Moscow replaced over winter. Drone units are just 2% of the army, but cause over a third of Russian losses.

2/

Pierre Vandier, NATO Admiral: Ukraine proved Europe cannot sustain industrial-scale war.

Ammunition is being consumed faster than it can be produced. Stockpiles, industry, and planning were built for limited operations not prolonged, high-intensity conflict. 1/ Vandier: Ukraine is expected to produce nearly 10 million drones in a year.

That forces a hard shift. NATO now has to deal with mass production at scale, where affordability and the ability to ramp up matter as much as advanced systems. 2/

Niall Ferguson: If the United States is going to learn anything from what happened in the Black Sea, a lot of damage can be done with some fairly basic sea drones.

The Ukrainians created enough risk that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been knocked out of the war. 1/ Ferguson: If U.S. is going to help the fleet insurers, they're going to have to step up on a much larger scale. The fiscal constraints of the U.S. are real.

Any great power that's spending more on interest payments on its debt than on defense will not be great indefinitely. 2/

“Do you wish to continue serving in the Russian Federation?” — “Why the fuck would I?”
That was 18-year-old cadet Dmytro Klymovych answering the Russian officer who seized their academy in Sevastopol. 1/ He was one of the cadets who sang the Ukrainian anthem while Russians raised their flag. During the full-scale invasion Russians took him prisoner — beating him day and night. Now he is home, making up for lost time with his son — Hromadske. 2/

“We must face reality — the West has split.”

Finland’s President Stubb: “Salvage what you can” of the trans-Atlantic alliance as Trump’s policies fracture relations with Europe and weaken pressure on Russia, Telegraph. 1/ Stubb: “I’m more pessimistic now, in that sense, more realistic.”

Stubb admits that Trump’s actions — tariffs, easing Russia sanctions, and acting without allies — have shifted the US policy away from Europe. 2/

A Russian soldier surrendered via Telegram instead of fighting.

POW: I wrote to the “I Want to Live” hotline. A bot took my details and passport. I sent my location. Then they gave a password, passed me to another operator, and connected me with someone on the ground.

1/ POW: I came from conscription, spent 6–7 months without work. After a fight in the city, four people filed charges.

I got 3 years in a correctional facility and a $8,000 fine. I signed a contract to clear it and debts, but nothing was cleared. They sent me to assault units.

2/

Russian commanders treat their own soldiers like disposable bodies.

They force men to fight each other to death, beat and electrocute them, strip them naked and tie them to trees in freezing cold.

Wounded men on crutches go straight back into assaults – Daily Mail. 1/ Videos show commanders chaining soldiers by the neck inside small boxes and mocking them with food

One man gets a plate thrown at his head while a commander pours water over him and tells him he will die there. Others get forced to crawl through mud while being kicked and hit 2/

Pomerantsev: We’re approaching a moment where discussion about Russia is not about countering disinformation to defend democracy.

But about how to “fuck Russia up,” because in a war you need to to beat the psychological daylight out of our enemy, not just defend democracy. 1/ Pomerantsev: Russia is trying to psych us out.

They’re hitting us with bombardments and then with loads of propaganda to make us feel unsettled and concerned and scared.

The best psychological defense teaches you how to work with your own emotions. 2X

The Economist: after four years of solidarity, Ukraine and Europe are openly fighting. Both sides accused each other of “blackmail.”

In January the Druzhba pipeline was damaged. Zelenskyy blamed Russia and refused to fix it — arguing oil revenues fund the Kremlin’s war. 1/ Orban, running a re-election campaign, used the dispute to block the finalization of the €90bn EU loan to Ukraine. 2/

Ukrainian soldier Mykyta Semenov on Russian captivity:

"Russian: What unit? Semenov: Azov.

Russian: This is the end for you. Your country abandoned you. Look where they brought you. You will never know. You’ll die here. But you have a choice: fight for us." 1/ Semenov: I was captured in May 2022 in Mariupol.

In Olenivka, we started starving. I lost 25 kg. What they gave us to eat — dogs wouldn’t eat, maybe only pigs would. The cereal didn’t digest. Fish head bones. Pasta with rotten green fish. 2/