Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/ Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/

Bolton: Iran and North Korea got the same Chinese nuclear weapon designs from A.Q. Khan. Same enrichment technology. Both programs share the same basis from the very beginning.

North Korea built a reactor clone in Syria's desert for Iran. Israel found and destroyed it in 2007 1/ Bolton: Iran is oil-rich and has no nuclear weapons. North Korea is one of the poorest countries on earth — it has detonated six nuclear devices.

How hard is it to imagine Iran contracts out its nuclear work to North Korea, under some mountain we can't see through? 2/

Estonian PM Michal: Russia has more men under arms now than at the start of the war. What happens when fighting stops?

They won't become teachers. They'll go to Europe, Asia, Africa. We had Wagner before and during the war. Do you want these people at home, in your country? 1/ Michal: If anyone thinks investing 5% of GDP in defense is easy, it's not. Takes a heavy toll on any government. But it has to be done.

Estonia is at 5.4% this year. Poland 5 to 6%. Latvia, Lithuania the same. We're showing that this is real money, real decisions, real steps. 2/

Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine, Taylor: While we weren't looking, Ukraine took the initiative. Taking more land back than Russia takes. More deep strikes into Russia than Russia fires into Ukraine.

Killing more Russians than Russia can recruit. That's the momentum shift. 1/ Taylor: Ukraine has cut off fuel and ammunition for the Russian military in Crimea. They're threatening the last connection — the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian drones can now take out.

They are the masters of the drones. And Crimea is being squeezed from every direction. 2/

Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.

In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/ Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"

That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.

But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.

1/ Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.

But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.

2/

Trump threatened a 100% tariff on any European country that imposes a tax on US tech firms. The tariff would take effect immediately.

It would override every trade deal those countries had already signed with US, including the EU tariff pact reached in May — The Guardian. 1/ Trump: Any country that imposes such a tax will be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America.

He said numerous European countries had discussed the tax and some were close to actually doing it. A larger EU-US trade war could follow. 2/

Between 2023 and 2024, sabotage attacks across Europe nearly tripled. The year before, they quadrupled.

Russia runs these attacks through ordinary people who never learn they serve Moscow — a Telegram admin, an attractive stranger, a fellow conspiracy theorist, United24. 1/ After the 2018 Skripal poisoning and the 2022 expulsions, Moscow lost most of its career agent networks in the West.

Russian intelligence adapted instead of shrinking. It now hires disposable operatives to cut costs, dodge blame, and scale sabotage almost without limit. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on why Putin won't go nuclear: No guarantee Ukraine surrenders. If Ukraine doesn't break after a nuclear strike, it backfires catastrophically.

The rocket falls on Ukraine but the effect hits Russia. They used everything and Ukraine still didn't break. 1/ Kuleba: China will stop him. The first wartime nuclear use since 1945 lifts the taboo for everyone. Israel can nuke Iran. Pakistan can nuke India.

China needs a controlled world, not nuclear chaos. China has leverage over Russia — despite always saying it doesn't. 2/

A surrounded Ukrainian infantryman amputated his comrade's gangrenous arm with a knife and survived for months on raw pheasants cooked over trench candles.

“Boomer” marked enemy kills with notches on his rifle and stopped counting once he passed a hundred, Ukrainska Pravda.

1/ Russians dropped FPV drones with water bottles wrapped in green tape and notes: "Surrender! You're surrounded. Lay down your weapons, walk out with a white flag." Nobody took the offer.

Boomer: "Captivity is simply not an option for me."

2/

Kasparov on Putin's biggest miscalculation: He was certain that linguistic commonality would outweigh everything and all his advisors believed Russian-speaking Ukrainians would side with Russia

Linguistic commonality proved far less important than people's sense of freedom 1/ Kasparov: Ukraine and Russia diverged in 1994. Russia chose the Chechen war to prolong power. Ukraine had a peaceful transfer, Kravchuk lost the election and left

That moment was critical. People voted and the president left. Ukrainians understood, power comes from the people 2/

Kasparov: My triad since day one of the full-scale war — Ukraine's victory, Russia's defeat, collapse of the empire. That is the only outcome this war can have.

Only the liquidation of Putin. No other options exist. While Putin is there, it is war. Only his liquidation. 1/ Kasparov: An empire cannot retreat. The moment an empire begins retreating — that is its end. This was true for Rome. It was true for every empire. Nothing new here.

It started with Crimea in 2014. It will end with Crimea. Putin and the Russian Empire have merged into one. 2/

Syrskyi: Our main objective is to ensure that the enemy loses more than 1,000 personnel killed or wounded every day.

Ukraine’s war aims: hold territory, kill Russians faster than they can be replaced, destroy logistics with mid-range drones, and bleed Russia’s economy with long-range strikes. 1/ Syrskyi: Russia has lost 183,500 killed or badly wounded troops since January 1.
That number exceeds the 180,500 soldiers Russia is believed to have recruited in the same period. 2/

Silicon Valley is part of Ukraine’s deep-strike war.

A $5,000 AI drone funded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is hitting Russian supply vehicles.

Palantir helps plan deep strikes.
Starlink extends drone range, — The Times. 1/ The AI drone is called Hornet.
It carries a 5 kg warhead and is built by Perennial Autonomy, a U.S. company founded by Schmidt.
Ukrainian videos show it striking Russian trucks that supply forces. 2/

Ex-CIA officer, West: There is no chance of a coup against Putin. Russia is a security state built over 26 years with one purpose, keeping him and his strongmen in power.

300,000 Rosgvardia troops loyal to him. 30,000 elite protective service. All beholden to Putin. 1/ West: Prigozhin was never close. Had he reached Moscow, he'd have hit crack Rosgvardia units whose entire existence — pay, palaces, benefits — depends on Putin.

People say 2023 showed Putin was vulnerable. No, he wasn't. Prigozhin knew he had no chance of overturning him. 2/

Former NATO Military Committee Chair Bauer: I tried four times to reach out to Gerasimov [Russia’s top general] through letters. He said he was busy with the “special military operation.”

Later he said: you are part of NATO, NATO is part of the problem, I can’t talk to you.

1/ Bauer: We saw the Russian buildup for invasion of Ukraine start in spring 2021. They left vehicles and ammunition behind. In the end, 195,000 troops were around Ukraine.

We saw vehicles, hospitals, ammunition — then came the blood. I knew within 3 hours when the invasion would start.

2/

Browder: I know Putin pretty well. He's not a guy who comes with his tail between his legs. He's ready to commit the most horrific crimes to show he is a brutal, terrible adversary.

Just because he's getting hammered doesn't mean he's going to give up. Not him. 1/ Browder: My prediction — there will never be a peace treaty. Never any negotiation. It will wind down slowly, the way the Korean War wound down.

The Korean War is still technically going on right now. Nobody's firing, they have a demilitarized zone. It's an ongoing war. 2/

Browder: Trump has proven himself on Putin side at every step since returning to power. Cut all military aid. Voted with Russia at the UN against Ukrainian resolutions

His Oval Office outburst against Zelenskyy. His demand that Ukraine surrender territory Russia couldn't win 1/ Browder: He mutters ambiguous things, but he hasn't changed his position. Putin hasn't changed. Nothing has changed.

Except Ukraine's position on the battlefield. Ukraine's drones destroying Russian economic capability. Ukraine causing absolute havoc in Crimea. 2/

Polish FM Sikorski: Our response to Ukraine naming a unit after UPA heroes was disproportionate.

It personally humiliated Ukraine's president. If President Nawrocki had asked me, I'd have advised differently, Tvn24. 1/ Sikorski: Nawrocki essentially deprived himself of the ability to talk with the president of a country at war.

When Zelenskyy got the soldiers' request, the response should've been: fine, UPA fought the Soviets, but it also killed Poles — pick a better name. TVN24.

2/

Ukraine fields Europe's only million-strong, combat-tested army and its fastest-moving drone industry.

The question is whether Europe can credibly defend itself without Ukraine. It cannot, writes Aliona Hlivco in Kyiv Independent. 1/ Ukraine has developed Europe’s most combat-experienced military, one of the world’s most innovative defense-tech sectors, and a new doctrine of warfare.

From battlefield drones to AI targeting, Ukraine is pioneering capabilities NATO and EU states are only starting to grasp. 2/

Russia may be preparing a provocation in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO, The Guardian.

Putin wants to see whether the US would defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ukraine's strikes reach Moscow and St Petersburg, and Russia wants to hit back somewhere it can. 1/ Latvian intelligence: We see indications that Russia prepares military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.

Russia cannot open a second front. It may use hybrid actions — missiles, drones — to signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or face your own problems. 2/