Zelenskyy: We launched a new anti-ballistic program, Freya, to mass-produce anti-ballistic weapons, systems, and missiles.

Today, the anti-ballistic coalition held its first founding meeting.

1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine has a missile, but it is only part of the system.

Together, in the next 12 months, we can build Freya: an affordable anti-ballistic system that closes the gap and gives Europe enough new protection.

2X

Volker: Zelenskyy has learned how to deal with Trump. This time [in Ankara] he was disciplined.

He didn't want to talk too much in public. He wanted their private meeting to have a positive tone. He joked a little.

That's the right way to handle things. 1/ Volker: Zelenskyy has an advantage over Russia in drones, counter-drones, electronic warfare, defense tech, innovation and logistics.

Many things that Putin is not able to do. Long-range strikes are hitting Russia's source of money: its oil and gas industry. 2/

Ex-CIA officer Wiswesser: Under Putin, Russian intelligence can do no wrong without accountability.

Blow up a DHL plane in Lithuania, set a shopping center on fire in Warsaw or try to kill Rheinmetall's CEO in Germany. That makes it a formidable adversary. 1/ Wiswesser: Russian intelligence understands very little about how the United States works.

It projects its own corruption and political system onto the West. If Putin had understood the West, he should never have invaded Ukraine. 2X

Kuleba: Putin is living through his Stalin moment. When everything falls apart around you, you do not give in.

You tighten the screws and double down: nothing can break me. Putin is waiting for winter to crush Ukraine’s energy system and its people’s resilience.

1/ Kuleba: Ukraine asked to build Patriot missiles at home in December 2023. The West takes too long to make obvious decisions.

War is becoming more aerial, and Ukraine will never have enough Patriots to intercept all ballistic missiles.

2/

Applebaum: Russians say they have no fuel, can’t do their jobs, and don’t know what comes next. But ordinary Russians have little impact on the Kremlin.

Don’t view Russia through a democratic lens. Propaganda says Russia is winning; reality says Russians are worse off.

1/ Applebaum: Putin mentioned a town that doesn’t exist and described a settlement as surrounded, with no evidence.

Either he makes things up, or someone misinforms him about the battlefield. He may be delusional, or his circle feeds him what he wants to hear.

2/

At a secret factory in southern Germany, Helsing SE mass-produces AI attack drones for Ukraine.

The HX-2 weighs 26 pounds, can cost as little as €17,500, needs barely a week of training and has been deployed by the thousands, NYT. 1/ Helsing is Europe’s most valuable AI defense start-up.

Founded in 2021, it set out to mass-produce cheap war machines as Western defense moves beyond multiyear contracts for tanks, jets and submarines toward cheaper, nimbler systems. 2/

Venezuela is formally sovereign, yet power is exercised from Washington.

Marco Rubio controls its money, oil rules, sanctions, appointments and public messaging.

Decisions about elections, timelines, and who can run remain unresolved or influenced from abroad, — NYT. 1/ Most Venezuelan export revenue goes first to the U.S. Treasury, then gets disbursed back through Venezuela’s banking system.

Rubio’s team decides what can be spent, and by whom. 2/

Kasparov: If Russia crosses into Estonia or Finland — NATO formally needs Article 5, Brussels, the American general reports to Washington.

The question is: will Trump not be playing golf at that moment?

1/ Kasparov: I see zero signs that Russia is ready for any negotiation process — not in propaganda, not in the economy, not in statements from Putin, Lavrov or Peskov.

Maybe I missed something. But so far we see exactly the opposite vector.

2/

Queues stretch up to nine miles beyond Crimea's checkpoints. 79% of hotel bookings cancelled. Fuel sold on Telegram at $25 a gallon. Blackouts last for days. Water available one hour a day.

Putin's "sacred" peninsula has become a burden. — The Telegraph.

1/ Ukraine struck 50 energy facilities in Crimea between July 1–8. Hit 76 shadow-fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov this week. Long-range strikes jumped 1,150% in 2026.

Six choke-point bridges under attack. Russian authorities suspended all fuel sales to private individuals.

2/

Browder: Trump is both U.S. president and a businessman.

It wouldn't be a leap to say Putin could have made lucrative business offers in exchange for less support for Ukraine. I don't see a better theory for what's happening.

1/ Browder: The U.S. told Gulf allies not to buy Ukrainian drone technology.

I have heard this from sources I trust, and I believe Trump did not want Ukraine to benefit. Europe should instead invest in Ukrainian defense technology through joint ventures and production.

2X

Browder: Ukraine has damaged 25–40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.

If it doubles that, it can tell Russia: stop bombing our civilians, and we stop hitting your refineries. Ukraine has also turned the front line into a drone kill zone where crossing is deadly.

1/ Browder: We should not underestimate Russia.

It still has a much larger population, deeper financial resources, and bigger ammunition stockpiles than Ukraine.

Even if Russian forces in Crimea collapse, Ukraine may still lack the troops needed to retake it.

2/

For the first time since 2022, Ukraine has a coherent theory of victory. Instead of grinding down the Russian army at huge cost, Kyiv now destroys Russia's capacity to wage war.

It targets the revenue, fuel, and the supply lines that feed the front — Christian Caryl, FP. 1/ Former DM Zagorodnyuk calls this strategic neutralization. Render Russian forces ineffective by cutting their support, rather than storming their positions.

The proof of concept is the Black Sea Fleet. Naval drones drove it from Sevastopol without a single Ukrainian warship. 2/

Browder: Putin started a war because he stole so much money that he became afraid of his own people.

The easiest way to stop people turning against you is to create a foreign enemy. That is Machiavelli 101. 1/ Browder: If Putin used a nuclear weapon, he still would not win the war.

Ukraine is too large and too dispersed. China and the Global South would step away, and Putin would become a fully defined war criminal. 2/

Browder: Ukrainians were never Russia's enemy.

The Kremlin manufactured that enemy. It called Ukrainians Nazis and fascists and accused them of things they never did. Crimea then sent Putin's approval ratings through the roof. 1/ Browder: Putin has been stealing since his days in the St. Petersburg mayor's office.

Putin and about a thousand people around him stole one trillion dollars from the Russian state before the war. 2X

Browder: Putin will never negotiate an end to the war.

Russia does not do diplomacy. Everything is win or lose. Nobody should negotiate with Putin because he will stop only when somebody stops him. 1/ Browder: Putin can't leave power. If he ends this war, he won't be in power anymore.

He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs power to stay alive. That is why negotiations aren't going to go anywhere. 2X

McFaul: Trump used to tell Zelenskyy: You don't have the cards. Zelenskyy answered: This is not a game, this is a war.

Now Trump sees that Zelenskyy has cards. The balance of power is changing, and that is why he may be more willing to help Ukraine. 1/ McFaul: The West's biggest mistake was worrying too much about what Putin thought.

That started long before the full-scale invasion. It was a mistake at the Bucharest NATO summit, during the war against Georgia and in the response that followed. 2/

McFaul: Putin is weak.

A strong leader gets information and makes new decisions based on it. Putin doesn't.

He gets information only from the FSB, SVR and the red folders they prepare for him. 1/ McFaul: A strong leader does not fear independent society or Alexei Navalny. Putin feared Navalny. He fears independent organizations. Fear is a sign of weakness, not strength. 2/

Mark Carney: Russia is a direct adversary.

The threats we face are changing rapidly, from hybrid warfare to hypersonic missiles and autonomous warfare. 1/ Carney: Burdens are shifting away from the United States, towards Canada and Europe.

Before I became Prime Minister 18 months ago, we spent 1.5% of GDP on defense. It now goes to 4% in the next two years. 2/

Saakashvili, ex-president of Georgia: The Ankara agreement gives Ukraine a Patriot license, but bureaucracy and production setup will take months.

Ukrainian Patriots will not appear before next year, Ukrainska Pravda. 1/ Saakashvili: Putin trapped himself. If he agrees to a ceasefire, Russia becomes a North Korea and a satellite of China.

While Putin remains in power, there will be no ceasefire; the war will sharply escalate. 2/

The billionaires who got rich under Putin are starting to get nervous.

Andrey Melnichenko, Russia’s biggest industrialist, says the war is breaking Russia's economy — and if nothing changes, the country ends up broke, isolated, or run by China, The Economist. 1/ Melnichenko is not anti-Putin opposition. He is an insider whose factories supported the war economy. Like most oligarchs, he lived by Putin’s rules: make money, but keep out of politics.

He speaks now because tycoons can no longer ignore the rot. 2/

Putin is pretending he is crazy and will never stop.

He is a rational player. At some point he will stop. But first, Russia must feel five to ten times more pain than it does now, I told the WSJ. 1/ Ukraine struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, more than 1,500 miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Russia left Omsk without air defence because it considered the refinery out of Ukraine's reach. Ukrainian drones hit its crude distillation unit. 2/