Anthropic CEO Amodei: Russia invading Ukraine, the risk of China invading Taiwan. That's the authoritarian bloc we defend against.

We can't let China and Russia use AI to attack Ukraine and Taiwan while we can't defend them. Not for the money, government networks pay little.1/ Amodei: Conflicts happen when both sides misunderstand each other — without oversight, accidents become likely.

But superior intelligence deters conflict. Predict an invasion of Taiwan or troop movements in Ukraine, and adversaries think twice before acting.

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Kasparov: Putin cannot stop the war. His system is built on it, budget, economy, propaganda, education. Kindergartens train with drones. Universities open special courses. Plan: a million drone operators by 2030.

War became Russia's routine. You can't reverse this in one second. 1/ Kasparov: An inclined plane from physics, one direction, speed always increasing. Napoleon couldn't stop. Hitler couldn't stop. Macron admitted diplomacy won't work here

For Putin, ending the war means total collapse, ideology, system, power. All of it built on permanent war 2/

A «lonely» Ukrainian housewife traded WhatsApp messages with a Chechen commander for months. "Send me a picture," she asked. He photographed himself and a map of his unit's position pinned on the wall behind him.

The housewife did not exist — The Atlantic. 1/ "She" was a middle-aged Ukrainian intelligence officer named Serhiy. Shortly after Achmad sent the photo, a drone struck the coordinates it revealed.

His commander: "Serhiy was great at flirting. Guys in our team started asking him for dating advice." 2/

Hodges: Trump told G7 leaders that Ukraine is their problem — a long way from the US, not America's concern.

Very short-sighted and wrong, but that is the policy. Europe working with Ukraine is going to have to be the main effort. No significant change coming from Washington. 1/ Hodges: Shadow fleet seizures must become the norm, not the exception. France has done it, Sweden has done it, the UK just did it.

Seizing these vessels going through the Baltic and Black Sea would be a major step in cutting Russia's ability to export oil and gas. 2/

Bolton: Damage to Iran's military infrastructure is real, but the regime stays and this deal is a significant political defeat.

Trump wanted the strait open to get gasoline prices down before November. He lost sight of the strategic issues that should have been central. 1/ Bolton: Gulf Arabs will live in fear that Tehran turns the strait on and off like a light switch.

Friends around the world wonder even more what an American commitment means. If we had taken military control of the strait at the outset, none of this would have happened. 2/

Graham: If the Iran deal fails, Trump takes the Strait of Hormuz by force. The US will control it and charge a fee for all ships passing through.

He says he spent four and a half hours with Trump on Friday laying this out. Expand the Abraham Accords in 2026. 1/ Graham: New policy if diplomacy collapses — when Hezbollah attacks Israel, the US hits Iran directly.

Not the proxy. Iran itself. "If Iran tests control of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States, we will obliterate them." To the Iranians: that is the message. 2/

Hodges on Hegseth saying Trump tested our allies and they failed over the Iran war: Absolute total horseshit. The war is now being spun as a test of alliance solidarity.

That's the mentality. And that's what's going into the NATO summit in Ankara in a few weeks. 1/ Hodges: What a childish, immature way to think about strategy — reward allies that spend enough, punish those that don't. US soldiers in Europe are not here to guard Germans or protect Poles.

It's for our interest. Just like British forces on the continent are for UK's interest. 2/

Hodges: Hard to imagine a worse outcome of this war of choice. Worse than Obama's JCPOA. Failed every objective the president laid out, and they changed the objective several times and still didn't hit any of them.

The IRGC came out of this more empowered than before. 1/ Hodges: This demonstrated the limits of American power — especially going it alone. Even with the best navy and air force, we could not achieve the strategic end state.

The technology is incredible. But we could not solve our military problem with technology alone. 2/

The US may win AI and still lose the technology race — Bloomberg.

AI is only one piece of the competition with China. Twenty years ago, the US led China in 61 of 64 key technologies tracked by ASPI. Three years ago, China led in 57 of them. 1/ The bigger challenge is turning innovation into industrial power.

For example, China now manufactures 70–80% of the world’s drones, despite many core technologies being invented in the US, Europe, and Japan. 2/

Vector, who leads a Ukrainian unit striking deep inside Russia with long-range drones: They are now our most important card in this war.

Ukraine now flies 200 to 300 of these drones at targets inside Russia every night, up from a few dozen a month in early 2024 — Politico. 1/ In a secret warehouse, GUR specialists assemble 15-foot Liutyi kamikaze drones that carry up to 150 pounds of explosives and fly 1,300 miles.

Each costs about $230,000. Small teams scatter across Ukraine to launch them, so losing a few sites or drones changes little. 2/

Ukrainian strikes have already disabled almost 40% of primary oil refining in European Russia

Russia runs its war on refined fuel. Diesel moves trucks and logistics. Jet fuel keeps aviation in the air. Generators need fuel every day, — Hromadske. 1/ Ukraine is hitting the core refinery units that turn crude into usable fuel.

These units are large, complex and hard to replace under sanctions.

Every successful strike removes capacity, adds repair time and increases pressure on the Russian fuel system. 2/

Russia killed her husband when she was 20. She became an FPV pilot and killed an enemy pilot. First in her battalion.

Iryna “Bilka” Kolobaeva for Radio Svoboda: After around 2 weeks from the burial, I started regaining consciousness and understood it would be revenge.

1/ Bilka: During my last shift before leave, I destroyed my first enemy vehicle. There isn’t much in our sector, so this is a big deal.

I also have the battalion’s first enemy pilot kill to my credit. I’m the first girl in the battalion, and I destroyed the first enemy pilot.

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Five years into the largest war in Europe since 1945, Putin still has not declared war on Ukraine. He calls it a "special military operation."

Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands and turned its whole economy toward the front. The refusal is deliberate — United24. 1/ Because the word war changes how people act. Call it war, and Russians start to fear mobilization, shortages and death, and they panic.

An operation sounds clinical and contained, handled by professionals and over soon. It let Russians carry on while the army kept fighting. 2/

Kuleba: Name one Ukrainian politician of national significance who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. You can't. In Poland there are many.

And the president leads them, not with open slogans, but with actions that make life worse for Ukrainians in Poland and at home. 1/ Kuleba: Poland's core interest: if Ukraine falls, Poland is next. Every Polish politician believes this. Ukraine's core interest: EU membership.

These two issues must be encapsulated and protected from the political storms that will keep tearing at our countries. 2/

Bolton: Iran deal requires Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. I see zero chance of that.

But it gives Iran, through Hezbollah, the ability to punish Israel and have Trump and Vance criticize the Israelis for defending themselves. A powerful political weapon. 1/ Bolton: This deal is a powerful tool to split the Great Satan from the Little Satan.

Vance's vitriol toward Israel, saying it was 'built with American money', won't sit well with Israelis or Americans who view Israel as a key ally. Vance has embraced the role of architect here. 2/

Britain is building long-range missiles for Ukraine without U.S. components.

Washington has repeatedly delayed or limited the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow for strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine gets weapons no one in Washington can veto — FT. 1/ The project is called Brakestop.

The UK unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace.

After more tests this year, one or more could reach Ukraine by the end of 2026. 2/

Hodges: Putin's nightmare — momentum shifts irreversibly in Ukraine's favor. He loses oil and gas exports. Oligarchs push back openly. Europe begins stopping shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and Black Sea.

When all of that converges — it's over for him. He'll know it. 1/ Hodges: Russia's professional military knows Putin's war has destroyed or severely damaged Russia's armed forces — even Russia's ability to defend itself.

I could imagine the military leadership at some point saying: this is enough. We want to accelerate to that point. 2/

Hodges: The Kerch Bridge is a high-payoff target, not just logistically but psychologically. Destroying Putin's bridge would demolish morale and erode the false narrative of inevitable Russian victory

The Ukrainians will pick the right time. It will require a lot of explosive 1/ Hodges: Russia can't rebuild the Kerch Bridge quickly — especially if an entire span drops. There's a reason no bridge existed there before. Massive engineering undertaking.

The Ukrainians have already been degrading its defenses and weakening the structure systematically. 2/

Hodges: Crimea dominates the Black Sea, it's why Catherine the Great took it in the 18th century. If Russia holds it, they block access to the Azov Sea and disrupt everything out of Odessa.

It's in the interest of all of us that Ukraine regains control of Crimea. 1/ Hodges: Crimea is doable. The geography that makes it important also makes it vulnerable. Ukraine now has the range — drones, missiles, weapons platforms — to touch every target.

No airfields, no logistics bases, no radar safe. There is no place to hide on that peninsula. 2/

Kuleba: In Brussels, European leaders were stunned by Ukraine's strikes on Moscow. To say they were impressed is to say nothing.

But I was told some leaders are frightened by Ukraine's strength, they see strategically what kind of powerful player is emerging on their doorstep 1/ Kuleba: The effect is triple. They're glad Ukraine hits back hard. But they see a new Ukraine forming — one that will join the EU and will be a force.

And they're terrified about what happens with Russia next. Europeans fear uncontrolled developments there. It paralyzes them. 2/

Kuleba: Hungary's Magyar blocked five EU negotiation clusters with Ukraine. But he is not Orbán.

He faces huge domestic pressure from Fidesz supporters accusing him of selling out Hungarian interests. He boasted publicly because he needs to contain that pressure at home. 1/ Kuleba: Magyar wasn't alone. Behind him, other EU members gladly hid — including some who welcomed Zelenskyy in Brussels with smiles.

Two reasons: Ukraine is too large and will have too much influence. And the EU itself is not ready for such a major enlargement. 2/