Hodges: Europe and Ukraine know the U.S. has a primary interest, which is business with Russia. Europe sees it cannot count on the U.S.

Unsatisfactory outcome for Ukraine could send millions more Ukrainian refugees into Central and Western Europe. 1/ Hodges: The administration's approach has always been doomed from the start because they didn't care about the origin, history or geography, and approached it as a massive real estate deal.

Rubio said in the beginning, Ukraine, you're gonna have to give up some territory. 2/

Q: Is the U.S. cutting Europe out of the talks and will Witkoff push Ukraine into concessions?

Kallas: I’m worried the pressure will fall on the victim — Ukraine. Russia started this war, continues it and hits civilians daily. Any deal must keep that reality front and center. 1/ Q: Does the EU reparations loan hurt peace talks?

Kallas: No. It strengthens Europe’s leverage over Moscow. Russia owes Ukraine damages.

Using frozen Russian state assets is the right base for reparations. I understand Belgium’s concerns, but we need to move forward. 2/

Belarusian opposition leader, Tsikhanouskaya: Helping Ukraine is a priority.

Its victory is crucial for many countries, especially Belarus. As long as Lukashenko serves Putin, he remains a threat to Ukraine, the EU, and keeps Belarus under Russia’s pressure. 1/ Tsikhanouskaya: The ideal scenario is Ukraine getting all support to secure a just peace. Russia turns inward and stops backing Lukashenko.

A democratic transition begins in Belarus, free from Moscow’s pressure and no longer propped up by the Kremlin. 2/

Historian Antony Beevor: "For Russians, conspicuous cruelty is a necessary weapon of war."

The atrocities in Ukraine aren't aberrations — they're rooted in centuries of uniquely brutal warfare.

And the West failed to see it coming — The Telegraph. 1/ Russian mass rape, torture, and murder in Bucha aren't the work of rogue soldiers — they're systematic. The 19,500 missing Ukrainian children show what Russian conquest really means. 2/

Europe faces a hard choice: sovereignty or dependence on Trump’s America.

Three times Trump pushed Ukraine to concede to Russia. Three times EU leaders scrambled to stop him. The transatlantic relationship is effectively over, writes Martin Sandbu for FT.

1/ Will Europe act as a rule-maker or accept life as a rule-taker under Washington?

EU must build a plan for EU–US decoupling to limit how MAGA America can pressure Europe again.

2/

Kuleba: There are tasks and missions in life, when you just cannot afford having plan B.

In the case of Russia's war against Ukraine, when the conflict is existential, having no plan B is the best way for you to try to defend yourself and to survive. 1/ Kuleba: I appreciate everything that has been done for Ukraine. This is not me saying that no one did anything to help Ukraine. But history is ruthless and we are judged by whether our deeds were sufficient. Enormous effort was done, but it was still not enough. 2/

“Drone operators are hunted. You feel it from your first day.”

As casualties rise, Ukraine relies on civilians to fill drone units. Training lasts just 15 days before deployment near the front. Dozens of women now serve or train, with more joining monthly — The Guardian.

1/ Dasha, 37, commands a mixed unit near the eastern front. “It’s not about proving anything. It’s about necessity. Everyone is stretched. Everyone is adapting.”

2/

Zelenskyy: The peace plan looks better now. The points related to territory were discussed for 6.5 hours yesterday.

Tomorrow I will receive the US feedback. Then the US will receive Russia’s reaction. After that, we will see approximately where we stand. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia’s military suffered its largest losses in 4 years this October — 25,500 soldiers killed. 2/

NATO is preparing for a bad scenario: defending Europe from Russian invasion with limited US support.

A November wargame in Romania's Carpathian mountains revealed the stark reality and the dangerous gaps Europe must urgently fill — Bloomberg. 1/ A French brigade deployed in Transylvania showed what NATO's future looks like as Trump reduces US forces in Europe.

European soldiers under French command defended the continent largely alone. Romanian officials says reinforcements could take weeks to arrive. 2/

Putin is not negotiating. He is stalling the West.

Dan Hoffman, former CIA station chief: Putin has not shown any hesitancy to engage in negotiations with the Trump Administration because talks help him avoid sanctions and block weapons for Ukraine. 1/ Q: What could come from this round of talks?

Hoffman: Russia declined a ceasefire, made no concessions, and shows no interest in real negotiations. The talks serve only one purpose for Moscow: delay. 2/

Q: Why are territorial concessions so dangerous for Ukraine?

Dan Hoffman, former CIA station chief: Donetsk is heavily fortified.

Giving it up would leave Ukraine exposed and give Putin a future opening for another attack. He has never honored past deals, not even Budapest.

1/ Q: What does this mean for Europe?

Hoffman: Ukraine fields Europe’s most capable army and leads in drone warfare.

Their resistance is what shields Europe’s security. Backing Ukraine is the clearest way to deter Russia’s next move.

2/

A major escalation in China-Russia military-industrial cooperation.

FT: The owner of a major Chinese drone-parts supplier has quietly taken a stake in Russia’s leading FPV-drone manufacturer Rustakt — a key producer of the VT-40 attack drone used across Ukraine. 1/ A filing in Russia’s registry listed Wang Dinghua, owner of Shenzhen Minghuaxin, as acquiring 5% of Rustakt in Sept.

Within 24 hours of accessing the document, all ownership data was suppressed from Russian state and private corporate registries. 2/

When Witkoff arrives in Moscow this week, he'll face a confident Putin who feels he's winning.

The Kremlin could play diplomat, accountant, or mischief-maker — but which version shows up may determine if peace talks succeed or fail, The Times. 1/ Putin claims every one of the original 28 peace plan points matters to Moscow, despite reports the US agreed to remove several.

This maximalist approach would humiliate Trump, who's been talking up deal prospects — but the Kremlin feels emboldened. 2/

A Russian victory in Ukraine would cost Europe €1.6 trillion over four years — twice as much as supporting a Ukrainian victory, according to a new study.

The math is clear: helping Ukraine win is economically smarter — Kyiv Independent. 1/ Under a Russian partial victory scenario, Moscow would push to the Dnipro River and force Ukraine into a settlement on Kremlin terms.

Ukraine could lose half its territory, face democratic backsliding, and potentially collapse as a state. 2/

Handing the Donbas to Moscow means: eyes gouged out, electrocution, mock executions, dog attacks, months of forced standing, beatings for any movement.

The Moscow Times reports this, citing Memorial’s investigation into Russian crimes in occupied Ukraine. 1/ Russian troops gouged out a man’s eye because they found a blue-and-yellow Ukraina supermarket discount card in his wallet. They called it “Nazi evidence.”

Elsewhere, they executed three brothers because the eldest once served in ATO. 2/

Ukraine's former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba warns — Trump's 28-point peace plan may be dead, but the real danger remains.

Putin is convinced time is on his side, and Washington does nothing to prove him wrong. Europe must act now — The Guardian. 1/ Putin answered Marco Rubio's claims of "substantial progress" in Geneva talks with a massive missile and drone barrage on Kyiv.

Seven killed, widespread destruction. This is the pattern: diplomatic optimism by day, brutal Russian strikes by night. 2/

The Telegraph: The U.S. is poised to recognise Russia’s control over Crimea and parts of Donbas as part of Trump’s peace plan - a break with decades of U.S. policy that refused to legitimise land taken by force. 1/ Trump has sent envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Moscow with an offer to give de facto recognition of Crimea and the “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk, plus Russian-held areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia after a ceasefire. 2/

“We won’t win this war without women.”

Daria, 35, commands the first all-women National Guard drone crew in Ukraine’s Typhoon unit.

In Zaporizhzhia region, her team just destroyed a Russian howitzer with an FPV drone, reports Washington Post. 1/ Nearly four years into the full-scale invasion, more than 70,000 women serve in Ukraine’s military - up 20% since 2022.

About 5,500 are in combat roles. Daria’s crew is the first in the National Guard to operate entirely without men. 2/

This is good for Ukraine and moves us to Europe.

Yesterday, Yermak resigned. He and Zelenskyy were extremely close — they had lived and worked together from day one of the war inside the Kyiv compound.

"Talk about Zelenskyy, and you’re talking about Yermak" - Rybachuk for FT
1/ FT used my yesterday's comment that “I strongly support it. It would be the right decision, exactly what you do to get out of a crisis.”

Analyst Fesenko says that this is a “mini revolution” in Kyiv’s power structure & breaks a system where Yermak acted like an unelected VP.

2/

Witkoff, Kushner and Kremlin envoy Dmitriev didn’t plan peace, they planned business, writes WSJ.

In Miami they mapped a way to pull Russia’s $2T economy back into global markets, with U.S. companies beating Europe to the profits.

1/ Dmitriev pushed access to Russia’s $300B frozen assets, Arctic gas fields, rare-earth mines and even a joint SpaceX mission.

He told them U.S. firms could grab LNG blocks, nickel deposits and Arctic transport routes if Trump cut a deal.

2/

“What did my son die for?” asks 68-year-old Antonina Ryshko at Lychakiv Cemetery in Lviv, standing by the grave of her son Marian, 41.

She tells Reuters there is “no way” Ukraine should give up more land under any U.S.-backed peace plan. 1/ Lychakiv has already buried more than 1,000 fallen troops. Only a handful of plots remain and workers are clearing a new cemetery nearby as losses from nearly four years of war keep growing. 2/