Fanpage asked me whether Ukraine is desperate enough to accept anything.

Me: We want to end the war — but not surrender Ukraine. We won’t say yes to everything. Even after the corruption scandal, Zelenskyy can clean house and widen his coalition to resist pressure. 1/ Me: Russia’s participation in any security-guarantee system is out of the question.

This was a red line since Istanbul 2022 — and still is. Dignity, sovereignty, and Ukraine’s identity are not negotiable. 2/

Kasparov: NATO is weak, NATO does not exist, it is just four letters: “n”, “a”, ‘t’, “o”.

The reason you are still sitting here celebrating is that Ukraine is dying every minute.

If Ukraine weren't standing up, Russian tanks would already be in Poland!

1/ Kasparov: How anyone can seriously discuss a deal concocted by Trump's business partner?

This is a real estate deal to enrich the Trump family and sell Ukraine!

How can anyone seriously discuss that Ukraine will have to give up the fortifications that are saving Europe!?

2/

Ursula Fon Der Leyen: Sovereignty means choosing your own future.

Ukraine chose a European path, already integrating into the EU market and defense base.

Europe’s future is tied to Ukraine’s, and Ukraine’s future is in the EU — a core part of any real security guarantee.

1/ Ursula: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about Europe without Europe, nothing about NATO without NATO.

A future peace deal will rely on the EU and NATO to handle security guarantees, sanctions, reconstruction funding, and EU membership. 2/

Rubio told European allies that the U.S. wants Ukraine to sign a peace deal before Washington agrees to any security guarantees — a major shift that has alarmed Europe, Politico reports. 1/ On a Tuesday call, Rubio said Trump will negotiate “long-term guarantees,” but only after Kyiv signs a deal with Moscow. Trump also refuses to invite Zelensky to the White House until the deal is done. 2/

Trump pushes for peace in Ukraine — even if it means giving Russia land.

His team’s new 19-point plan would freeze the war but risks rewarding the invasion — Politico, WP.

Trump’s main goal, officials say, is to “stop the killing — whatever it takes.”

1/ The U.S. proposal, cut from 28 to 19 points, still includes major concessions: Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea, and a pledge Ukraine won’t join NATO.

2/

Republicans now fight each other over Trump’s Ukraine deal.

Senator McConnell says the plan “rewards aggression” and hands Putin gains he failed to win in two years of war, writes The New York Times.

1/ Vance fires back. He calls McConnell’s warning a “ridiculous attack” and defends the draft deal that cuts Ukraine’s army and forces Kyiv to give up territory.

2/

Timothy Snyder explains why Trump’s Ukraine “peace plan” is fatal and cannot produce lasting peace.

He writes six structural problems in the Witkoff–Dmitriev proposal in 1/ Wyborcza.pl 1. Nuclear risk

If Ukraine is forced to accept territorial losses because Russia has nukes, every state concludes that only nuclear weapons prevent invasion.

That triggers global proliferation and raises the risk of a nuclear world war. 2/

Putin ordered authorities to “strengthen Russian identity” in occupied Ukrainian regions. 95% of locals must identify as Russian by 2036 — Reuters.

The decree calls it “restoring the unity of historical Russian territories” and countering foreign attempts to create division.

1/ The decree will take effect in January.

It ties cultural and linguistic control directly to Putin’s justification for the 2022 invasion — to “protect Russian-speakers” and “reunify historical lands.”

2/

“After 100 days on the position — the last 20 of them hell — I finally broke out of the encirclement,” Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr Honcharuk on his FB.

My brothers-in-arms “buried” me twice, because given the conditions I was in, they believed survival was almost impossible. 1/ Oleksandr: Someone shades captured villages in red, I think every day about my comrade who was killed just a few meters from me.

Our group came under mortar fire during movement, and Russian drones surrounded us, leaving almost no chance. 2/

Zelenskyy is entering negotiations at his weakest moment since 2022 — hit by a $100M corruption scandal and facing a U.S.–Russia plan that Ukrainians see as capitulation.

I told the WSJ: “If we surrender to Russia in a meaningful way, more and not fewer people will die.” 1/ Me: “You can deny intelligence, you can deny support, but it won’t matter in the short run. Ukraine’s military is exhausted, but it is not in a mood to surrender.” 2/

Keane: Putin has not made any concessions.

He believes the more the war is protracted and the killing goes on, the more he thinks he can weaken the resolve of the United States and European leaders and pressure Zelenskyy to make concessions. 1/ Keane: Putin has broken every deal he has ever been involved in — in Ukraine and Syria.

Zelenskyy wants security guarantees and forces there to make certain Putin won’t attack again. Some means of deterrence has to be worked on. 2/

The Guardian: Trump sends Steve Witkoff to Moscow.

Trump says “a few disagreements” remain but refuses any summit until a deal is almost done.

Ukraine and Russia still refuse to move on territory and security.

1/ Zelenskyy says he can meet Trump “as soon as possible” and already edits the Geneva draft.

Trump instead sends Army Sec. Dan Driscoll to Kyiv, he suddenly becomes the key negotiator.

2/

Russia must get no amnesty in any Ukraine peace deal.

Gyunduz Mamedov — former Deputy Prosecutor Gen of Ukraine, now a frontline officer near Pokrovsk warns that the U.S.–Russia draft proposal offering “full amnesty for wartime actions” would destroy any chance of justice. 1/ Mamedov says he spent years documenting Russian atrocities in Crimea and Donbas starting in 2016: every execution, every torture site, every destroyed home.

But he now argues evidence means nothing if powerful states can block prosecution. 2/

Trump on leaked WitkoffGate: I haven’t heard it. But that’s a standard thing. He’s got to sell Ukraine to Russia and Russia to Ukraine. That’s what a dealmaker does. [I agree!!!]

You’ve got to say: ‘Look, they want this, you’ve got to convince them of this.’ 1/ Q: Many Republicans felt the first 28-point plan was too favorable to Russia. Have you changed it?

Trump: That was just a map, not a plan. It was a concept. And from there they’re taking each one of the 28 points and then you get down to 22 points. A lot of them resolved. 2/

This is my “game-theoretic” read of the leaked transcripts between Witkoff, Ushakov, and Dmitriev:

1. The US is steering the peace track and using a calibrated mix of pressure and incentives on Russia

1/ 2. Moscow signals real interest in a deal. The 28-point list is a maximalist opener, not a final position.

3. The central Russian goal is to secure Donbas at the negotiating table after failing to take it militarily for four years.

2/

Lavrov: During the Ukrainian conflict, Russia has rallied together and purged itself of those who were insincere in their relations with the Motherland.

Europe always wanted harm for Russia, Zelenskyy and his entourage make contradictory statements about the US peace plan. 1/ Lavrov: Before the Ukrainian conflict, European authorities only pretended to be friendly, but in reality they always wanted harm and misfortune for Russia. 2/

Lavrov: Russia has received Trump's plan through unofficial channels and is ready to discuss specific wording.

Europe wants to undermine efforts to resolve the conflict, Russia expects the US to pass a plan agreed with Europe and Ukraine, the EU has a colonial mentality. 1/ Lavrov: So far, we have not received from our American colleagues the version that the media is speculating about.

The West wants to rework Trump's plan in order to undermine the settlement efforts. 2/

The WSJ lays out what a real Ukraine peace must look like: sovereign Ukraine, real security guarantees, Western long-range weapons, freedom to choose alliances, and terms that stop Putin from launching the next invasion in six months. 1/ Rubio calls the U.S. proposal a “living, breathing document,” but the original 28-point plan bent toward Moscow — banning Ukraine from Western security ties and leaving it exposed.

That is not a durable peace. 2/

Rubio’s arrival in Geneva added flexibility and closer allied work to chaotic peace talks.

He changed Trump’s Ukraine line after Army Secretary Driscoll set a hard deadline.

The U.S. and Ukraine now have a revised 19-point plan with no territorial concessions — Politico. 1/ Driscoll spent two days pressuring Ukraine and European allies to accept a 28-point peace proposal by Thursday.

NATO officials and Ukrainians saw this as too rushed and too favorable to Moscow's interests. 2/

Zelenskyy: The American side is set on being constructive. As for now, after Geneva, there are fewer points [of peace plan]. No longer 28.

The list of steps to end the war is now workable. And many proper elements have been reflected in this framework. 1/ Zelenskyy: Sensitive issues I am discussing with President Trump.

Ukraine is not alone, and that matters. Our team has already reported today on the new draft of steps. And this is truly the right approach. 2/

Stubb: Peace mediation always needs patience.

The plan has 3 levels. Level 1 is what happens to Ukraine, land swaps, etc. Level 2 is European security — the EU and NATO. Level 3 is the transatlantic partnership.

We had talks in Geneva with Rubio, Yermak, and others. 1/ Stubb: We work on this as a team. We had 11 countries from the Coalition of the Willing meeting here in Johannesburg yesterday, including Canada and Japan, who are strongly committed to finding a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. We work on the text and negotiate together. 2/