Zelenskyy: Russia is preparing another big attack with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

People must be very careful and use shelters. The last massive strike had more than 600 Iranian Shaheds and around 90 missiles. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia uses drone incidents toward Romania, Poland,

Moldova and the Baltics as political and military pressure on NATO. Putin is watching the reaction and testing the air defense of countries bordering Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. 2/

Ukraine and Iran expose the same illusion: technology delivers a quick victory

The Economist: bridges and power plants are now standard targets in war planning. In 2022 US put 50-50 odds on Russia going nuclear if Ukraine broke through to Crimea. The red lines exist,but where?1/ The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme counted 65 active state-based conflicts in 2025—the highest number since records began in 1946.

The Peace Research Institute Oslo calls the past four years the most violent period since the Cold War. 2/

Gordon Brown: a special tribunal, modelled on Nuremberg, will prosecute Putin's inner circle for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.

The Council of Europe and EU agreed on the mechanism this month. — The Guardian.

1/ Why not the ICC: the ICC cannot prosecute Russia's leaders for the crime of aggression because Russia is not party to the Rome Statute, and Russia's UN Security Council veto blocks any referral.

The special tribunal fills that gap.

2/

Kasparov: Ukraine performed a historical miracle.

The coming funeral of the Russian Empire, which I believe is not far away, is the result of the heroism of the Ukrainian people and, yes, of Zelenskyy’s political leadership. 1/ Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war. It is an imperial war, the logical continuation of Russian imperial history.

Without Ukraine there is no Russian Empire, and Putin understands that with his imperial sixth sense. 2/

Kasparov: Lavrov’s threat to foreign diplomats is not normal diplomacy. It shows Russia has problems and is trying to solve them with threats and bluff.

Bluff has always been Putin’s weapon: weak cards, higher stakes, and the hope that Europe’s hands will shake. 1/ Kasparov: Europe still cannot say the magic formula: Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.

Everyone understands it behind the scenes, but politically they still refuse to define the strategic goal of the war, so they keep maneuvering around the real issue. 2/

Kasparov: The attack on Kyiv looks less like a demonstration of strength than an outlet for Putin’s anger. The situation is turning against him.

Even inside his information vacuum, reality is breaking through: the war is no longer moving west, it is moving east. 1/ Kasparov: Putin’s trip to China was likely unpleasant. The Power of Siberia 2 deal was not signed.

That suggests Xi is diversifying and may be developing doubts about Putin’s ability not only to control the situation, but to hold on at all. 2/

Fukuyama: Ukrainians have systematically taken out Russian air defenses in Crimea with medium range drones and missiles. The peninsula depends on a narrow land route through the isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine now reportedly controls the isthmus from the air and has repeatedly attacked the bridge. 1/ Fukuyama: It would not be surprising if Russia decided within the next year that its position in Crimea was untenable and began withdrawing forces, just as it has already withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet. Such a withdrawal would be an enormous political defeat for Putin. 2X

That’s quite clear now that Europe is preparing for a future without the US. Where America is no longer the center of the Western alliance.

Trump spent years demanding loyalty from allies. Instead, Europe is slowly building systems designed to function without Washington, FP. 1/ At first, European leaders tried to keep Trump happy.

UK PM Starmer offered an unprecedented second state visit. NATO Chief Rutte called Trump “daddy.” European governments boosted defense spending and increased support for Ukraine. 2/

Ukraine received 16 Swedish Gripen fighters and wants to purchase 20 more of the latest model by 2030.

They're cheaper to operate than F-16s, can take off from a regular road and carry guided bombs — Suspilne. 1/ Saab and Volvo developed the Gripen in the 1980s for the Swedish military. Sweden lived next to the USSR and understood that fixed infrastructure would be the first target. 2/

Kasparov: Putin’s favorite weapon has long been bluff.

The problem with bluff is that if it keeps working, you start thinking it will always work. But sooner or later, after the three and the seven, the ace may not come. 1/ Kasparov: In Russian history, only one thing threatens autocratic power: a long, unwon war.

Not even a lost war, an unwon, dragged-out war. That is exactly what Putin has now, with no clear perspective and no way out. 2/

Kasparov: Europe is still not ready to say the magic formula: Russia must lose, Ukraine must win.

But the war cannot end while Putin is in power, because under Putin war has become the way the entire Russian state apparatus exists. 1/ Kasparov: Negotiations with Putin mean selling part of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory to buy time for calm preparation before Putin’s next aggression.

Nothing else is happening here. Russia’s whole system is aimed at continuing the war. 2/

Browder: I became Russia’s largest foreign investor, with $4.5B under management.

Then I found the companies I owned were being robbed blind by oligarchs. We exposed it through the FT and WSJ and became a major headache for Putin’s regime. 1/ Browder: After Russia expelled me, we sold everything and paid $230M in taxes.

Criminals and officials then stole that money from the Russian state. Sergei Magnitsky discovered it, exposed it, was arrested, tortured for 358 days and killed at 37. 2/

Russia's May 24 strike drained Ukrainian Patriot stocks. Zelenskyy went straight to Trump and Congress for resupply. A US senator flew to Kyiv and said yes.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal: It is literally about saving lives, — United24. 1/ Blumenthal framed the response as continuity. The US has armed Ukraine for three years of full-scale war, and a Patriot resupply fits the same pattern.
Blumenthal: "I hope and expect America will respond positively. We have already done it before. We must do it again." 2/

Chief of Estonian Intelligence, Kaupo Rosin: Pressure is mounting inside Russia.

There is no real battlefield success despite the extremely high cost, economic and financial problems are mounting, and the internal mood is changing. 1/ Rosin: Time is absolutely not on Putin’s side, if the West keeps the current trajectory on sanctions and support for Ukraine.

The West must keep giving Ukraine everything needed, and Ukraine should continue long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. 2/

Sen. Blumenthal: America is not leaving Ukraine. Our diplomats are here to stay, and we stand behind Ukraine as we have from the outset.

We will not be cowed by Russian threats or bullying — and neither should the people of Ukraine in any way. 1/ Blumenthal: Russia is not winning. Ukraine will prevail if it has the means to finish the job: long-range attack, artillery, HIMARS, ATACMS, tanks, F-16s and munitions.

Most urgent now is air defense, because Putin’s cruelty keeps escalating. 2/

Bolton: Ukraine now has the best army in Europe, better than any NATO member there except the U.S.

It has enormous combat experience and has developed drone and counter-drone technology that America should use, learn from, and take advantage of. 1/ Bolton: Ukrainians have brought Russia to a halt. Putin does not get serious about negotiations until Russian forces are really moving backward.

If you want to defeat aggression and tell others it is not in their interest, Ukraine is the model. 2/

Bolton: Trump is driven mainly by gasoline prices, not any coherent analysis of U.S. strategic interests.

Iran poses nuclear, terrorist and world-economy extortion threats — and the only real answer is eliminating the regime. If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will do. 1/ Bolton: Open the Strait militarily, keep the blockade on Iran, do not let Iranian oil out, and get as much Arab oil into global markets as possible.

That would show the U.S. can secure commerce, ease the threat to the world economy, and keep starving Iran. 2/

Kellogg: Trump may not have anyone in Iran who can make hard decisions.

Khamenei is supposed to decide, but we have not seen him and do not know if he is alive or coherent. So who do you really talk to when the hard decisions are left to him? 1/ Kellogg: Iran is following its Mosaic plan: decentralizing the Revolutionary Guards so each unit commands its own area.

That is why boats are being sent into the Gulf. Trump is in their heads, but the regime still thinks it is winning — which is nuts. 2/

Bolton: Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia and destroy much of the Black Sea Fleet caught Moscow totally unprepared.

When Russians hear targets are hit near Moscow and at deep military bases, they see the war is not going according to plan. 1/ Bolton: Russia may be trying to justify new strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, but the battlefield is at least at a standstill — and Ukraine is beginning to make small territorial gains.

It may be Russian forces that are about to crack, not Ukraine’s. 2/

Moscow wants Europe and U.S. to think it can escalate war further — NYT.
Russia is threatening Kyiv with “sustained strikes” because the battlefield is slowing against them.

[Ukrainian drones hit oil infrastructure and Russian cities daily. Drones turns every advance into a meat grinder] 1/ Russia followed its biggest strikes on Kyiv with warnings about attacks on “decision-making centers” and calls for diplomats to leave the city — psychological warfare. 2/

Zelenskyy: Gripen fighters with Meteor missiles — 200km+ range.

We believe we can push Russian aircraft back far enough to stop their mass use of guided bombs against us.

1/ Zelenskyy: First Gripens arrive in 10 months. Pilots start training now.

The challenge: our pilots are already flying combat missions in Ukrainian skies. We need to pull them out to train — and that's never easy during a war.

2/