Saam, ex Russian soldier now fighting for Ukraine: In most cases, the task in the Russian army is to die.

There is often no concrete objective — take a height, clear an area, or hold a position. Just go forward. 1/ Saam: Many Russian soldiers receive less than two days of training.

They are taken to units and assigned roles by “buyers”: machine gunner, grenade launcher operator, almost even helicopter pilot — though they may never have seen the weapon they are supposed to use. 2/

Ratcliffe, CIA Director: A Russian recruit’s average life expectancy in Ukraine is estimated at 20–30 minutes.

AI-powered drones have become low-cost killing machines, showing that mastery of technology is now as important as military strength. 1/ Ratcliffe: Russia occupied 19% of Ukraine when I became CIA director 18 months ago. Today it holds 20%.

Ukraine’s mastery of drones and asymmetric warfare has nearly stopped Russia’s advance, showing how emerging technologies can equalize the battlefield. 2X

I told BBC that people in Kyiv are surprised, annoyed, disappointed with the government reshuffle, but not angry.

The reshuffle won’t affect Zelenskyy’s popularity either way. And student protests are real, but not anti-Zelenskyy. They want Fedorov back.

1/ Me: For students, Fedorov is an icon and a cultural role model. He represents youth and the new generation.

They love him and are really sad he is gone.

2/

Kasparov: Putin could launch an incursion into Latvia or Estonia to test NATO after Russia’s September election.

He has always escalated when he felt he was in trouble. The most likely next escalation is a provocation, Politico. 1/ Kasparov: There is no sign in Russian propaganda, government actions or Putin’s speeches that Moscow is preparing for peace: War, war, war, war. 2/

Kuleba: Something personal broke between Zelenskyy and Fedorov.

Zelenskyy likely learned something that hit him personally and stopped trusting him. Yermak pressured Fedorov, but Fedorov had always been indispensable.

1/ Kuleba: I see no parallel with last year. Back then, I saw an attack on NABU, an independent instution.

Today, I see an attack on a strong manager and rising politician whose ties with Zelenskyy broke. Once that trust breaks, he cannot run defense or help the system.

2X

Congressman Moulton: Putin started an illegal war, and Ukraine turned it into a gift for NATO. Russia’s army is being decimated.

It proved far weaker than expected, with few tanks left. Americans now have more confidence because Ukrainians keep beating the Russians.

1/ Moulton: I worry that if Russia fights the U.S. or a NATO ally, it will have fewer tanks, fewer aircraft, and a weaker economy.

But on the ground, Russian troops have more experience fighting in a drone warfare environment than ours.

2/

Zelenskyy: The dialogue between the army leadership and Defense Ministry is difficult at different levels. It is not only about personalities.

Fedorov will remain on the team. The new Prime Minister has his own vision and must be strengthened by people he trusts. 1/ Zelenskyy: The army is responsible for holding the battlefield and our successful long-range strikes. There are problems in some brigades that must be addressed boldly.

Everyone is tired of the war. Our task is to ensure Russia becomes completely exhausted first. 2/

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: I’m proud Kyiv’s defense saved the capital in 2022. That is why people can hold briefings here, shape plans, and make decisions today.

I thank Mykhailo Fedorov for his work as defense minister. Hope he stays on Ukraine’s team.

1/ Syrskyi: I will do everything so Ukraine stays free and independent.

To keep Ukraine free, we must focus on the war and on a strategy that already brings results.

2X

Fedorov: Zelenskyy said he wouldn’t replace Syrskyi, I accepted that. I would have learned to work with him because we answer to the Ukrainian people.

But our initiatives were blocked. Syrskyi avoided discussing problems, and chose intrigue and media blame. He issued an ultimatum. He found a way to divide the country instead of defeating Russia. 1/ Fedorov: Mobilization won’t work without army reform. Young people discuss the 155th Brigade and failed assault units, not new contracts. The 3rd Assault Corps grew through clear processes, accountability, and unified command. 2/

Zelenskyy named Ihor Obolenskyi a Hero of Ukraine. He commands Khartiia, a combat unit that fights with drones, robots, scouts and artillery.

In Kupiansk, his Lava unit sent robots and drones instead of soldiers and destroyed a Russian bunker, ammo dump and 10 troops.

1/ Callsign: Kornet.

Obolenskyi is from Sumy. He graduated from the Bohdan Khmelnytskyi Military Institute of Missile Forces and Artillery.

2/

Azov and Khartiia commanders backed Ihor Klymenko for defense minister.

Khartiia's Obolenskyi: He can turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army and grow arms production.

Azov's Prokopenko: He knows the front, worked on the corps system and can fix mobilization.1/
Obolenskyi: A wartime defense minister must turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army, and grow defense industry.

It is like changing a race car’s wheels while driving. Ihor Klymenko is worthy of this new challenge.

2/

Lindsey Graham embodied a political bargain.

He mocked Trump, then became one of his closest allies.

That turn bought Ukraine time and leverage. Trump backed deep strikes into Russia, let Kyiv build Patriot interceptors, and moved toward sanctions bill — Bret Stephens, NYT. 1/ Their relationship began with humiliation. In 2015, Trump gave out Graham’s phone number at a rally.

Graham answered by destroying the phone on video: blender, golf club, toaster oven, lighter fluid. 2/

Russian POW Maksim (born 2007): I joined the army and stayed. An order is an order. I only saw myself in the army. It is prestigious. It is beautiful. It is a source of pride to be a soldier.

Q: Your motivation was not material?

Maksim: No. 1/ Maksim: I was not interested in the war in Ukraine. I wanted to be a soldier for my country, for my state. But when the order came, I had taken an oath, like any citizen of my country. An order is an order. 2/

Fire Point co-founder Shtilierman: When Russia enters a territory, it kills at least 20% of the population.

It happened in the Holodomor, the Baltics, western Ukraine, and Chechnya. If they come here, they will cut down 20% as “prevention.”

1/ Shtilierman: The company’s goal is to help humanity avoid the Fermi paradox and not destroy itself as a civilization.

Russia stands in the way. It fuels war and confrontation to keep Europe from living in peace.

2/

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin may decide NATO will not answer strike for strike.

In that case, he could hit logistics chains and transport hubs in Europe that feed supplies into Ukraine. As I remember, there are two major entry points.

1/ Khodorkovsky: I doubt the stories about camouflage nets and taking Kostiantynivka are for Trump. Trump does not care where Kostiantynivka is.

They are for Russians. Putin thinks Russians care about it. They don’t. They care that the war ends on Russia’s terms.

2/

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin now has to manage what he never learned: a real economic breakdown.

He knows recruiting and special operations. Now the system’s “pants” are tearing, and he does not know how to stitch them back. 1/ Khodorkovsky: Now a critical amount of refinery capacity is under threat.

If Ukraine keeps striking and Russian air defense keeps missing about 20% of incoming drones and missiles, plants across European Russia, the Urals, and western Siberia will stay at risk. The only fix is a sharp cut in private fuel use.

2/

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Civilian cars burn over half of Russia’s gasoline.

To keep freight and emergency services running, Russia must cut civilian fuel use by half or two-thirds. Prices will do the cutting. Ukraine scored a political win.1/ Khodorkovsky: Fuel crisis may grow much worse if Ukrainian strikes continue at today’s scale.

Omsk refinery shows almost all major Russian refineries are within range. Putin seems absent, and Mishustin has vanished into the fog.

2/

Kostyantynivka made the Kremlin's ruby-red stars and the glass on Lenin's mausoleum. Now Putin is grinding it into rubble to seize it.

The real prize is leverage over Trump, to argue holding Donbas is futile and Kyiv should concede — Christopher Miller, Financial Times. 1/ Kostyantynivka held about 70,000 people before the war. Around 2,000 remain, living without gas, water, electricity or medical help as food supplies run out.
They shelter in ruined blocks, and Russian drones have cut their movement to almost nothing. 2/

For Putin, a ceasefire is a tool to win the war politically. Freeze the front, rebuild the army, break Ukraine's ties with Europe, then strike again.

He did exactly this after Minsk in 2014. — Michael Kimmage & Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.

1/ Putin's ceasefire playbook: call for elections in Ukraine, then use subversion to promote corruption narratives about Zelenskyy.

Offer endless circular negotiations. Encourage compliant Europeans to legitimize Russian-occupied territory.

2/

Ukraine broke a 300-year rule. Armies won by centralizing weapons — standard parts, a few factories, crates to the front.

Kyiv inverted it via small workshops design a drone, the front reworks it, lessons feed back to industry. Update cycles as short as 3 weeks, — Charles Dainoff, Geoffrey Fain Williams, Robert Farley, FP. 1/ Ukrainian drones have largely frozen the front and let Kyiv hit Russian logistics deep in the rear. Against an enemy iterating just as fast, an older drone isn't inferior — it's useless. Whoever adapts quicker wins the microcycle. 2/

Crimea was supposed to be Putin’s fortress: a military base, Black Sea launchpad, and imperial trophy.

Now its 2.5 million people face blackouts, water cuts, fuel shortages, dead cell service, broken transit, rising prices and a collapsed tourist season, — Politico. 1/ Ukraine is now targeting the routes that keep Russia’s forces in the south supplied. The aim is not just to hit Crimea, but to isolate it and weaken Moscow’s position across the southern front. 2/