Putin says Russian sanctions were a "stimulus," and foreign companies should come back, on Russian terms

Putin: Sanctions, despite all the challenges and difficulties, have played a stimulating role for us. 0/ Putin: The Arctic is undoubtedly impressive, and we are its absolute leaders.

Many countries now want to cooperate with us on nuclear icebreaker fleet production, but this is impossible without modern materials. 1/

Putin says Russian sanctions were a "stimulus," but also a threat. Foreign companies should stay out, but also come back- on Russia’s terms.

Putin: Sanctions, despite all the challenges and difficulties, have played a stimulating role for us. 0/ Putin: The Arctic is undoubtedly impressive, and we are its absolute leaders.

Many countries now want to cooperate with us on nuclear icebreaker fleet production, but this is impossible without modern materials. 1/

Kellogg’s statement on Ukraine signals a strategic play. It follows a classic good cop/bad cop dynamic.

Two possible explanations for the Trump-Zelensky situation:

1. A hardball negotiation - pressuring Zelensky into concessions over Ukraine’s resources 1/

https://twitter.com/generalkellogg/status/1892928578641162487

2. A broader geopolitical trade - Russia and the U.S. striking a deal to sideline Ukraine in exchange for example for decoupling Russia from China and joint Arctic exploration

Which one is it? We’ll find out soon 2/

Reuters uncovers unofficial U.S.-Russia talks about Ukraine in Switzerland, with the latest meeting last week in Geneva during Munich Security Conference 1/ The participants have diplomatic experience but aren't current government officials. Some Trump advisers know about these meetings 2/

U.S. officials start to lay the groundwork for de-escalation with Ukraine.

Waltz: President Trump is frustrated with President Zelensky.

Some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv frankly and insults to President Trump were unacceptable 1/ Waltz: Rather than enter into some constructive conversations about what that deal should be going forward, we got a lot of rhetoric in the media that was incredibly unfortunate. 2/

Bessent: here was this elegant plan which turned into a media circus

B: I think President Zelensky unfortunately escalated and put some day light

R: How did he escalate? 1/ B: A lot of his remarks in Munich I thought were inappropriate.

(Yeah, and Vance’s remarks were ok?) 2/

The U.S. and Ukraine
shift toward de-escalation

Axios: The US presents Ukraine with "improved" minerals deal after initial proposal sparked a fight, removing New York court jurisdiction requirement and waiver of sovereignty 1/ Original draft demanded 50% of minerals revenue, override of Ukraine's other trade agreements, and required immediate signing during Bessent's Kyiv visit

This pissed off Zelensky and Ukrainians 2/

Putin and Trump scare Europe. But what scares them is the notion that Ukrainian 100+ brigades can come under Russian control if Ukraine implodes

Don’t dismiss this as a fantasy. Of course, Russia would get rid of Ukrainian officers and sergeants. 1/ But the rest of the army will be there, unless everyone emigrates to Europe.

In any case, we already saw this playbook in the occupied territories. Russia created “separatist republic armies” and force-recruited there all capable man 2/

Sky over Odesa, Ukraine. This is second Russian attack on Odesa in two days. The central district of the city with 250,000 people is without electricity and water supply.

After Lavrov statement that they don’t bomb civilian energy supply systems, though Reuters. 1/ Reuters says that Russia escalated now more, record spike in combat: 261 engagements in 24 hours Saturday (highest in 2025), dropping to 117 Sunday, with 38 around Pokrovsk. 2/

Reuters: Meanwhile Trump’s speaking about Zelenskyy ratings, Trump approval drops for 3 percent from 47% to 44%, and disapproval jumps for 10 percent from 41% to 51%.

It comes amid concerns over Trump new economic policy. 1/ As Trump threats of tariffs to a lot of other countries, Americans are concerned about their economy. 53% Americans seeing economy on wrong track surges from 43%, Trump economic approval falling to 39% from 43%. 2/

Putin says Trump must go harder on Europe and Ukraine; must move faster; he promised 24 hours; won’t meet with Trump until Trump is ready for serious results; the cause of the war is NATO

Putin: I’m surprised by Trump’s restraint toward allies who behaved rudely 0/ Putin: The U.S. is working with European allies on Ukraine to reach solutions acceptable to both sides. It’s not an easy task.

When Trump was a candidate, he spoke about resolving the Ukraine crisis quickly. But after becoming president and receiving more information, his position changed. 1/

Trump’s latest attack on Zelensky and pressure for elections in Ukraine have backfired - Zelensky’s support jumped 6% overnight

A fresh poll shows him noe leading the (unannounced) presidential race with 23%, up from 16% in December. Zaluzhnyi, led with 27%, slipped to 20% 1/ The majority of Ukrainians oppose the elections - 53% - until the war is over. The elections are supported by slightly over 30% 2/

Zelensky pushes back on Trump with facts, not rhetoric.

Zelensky: The U.S. has provided Ukraine with $67 billion in military aid and $31 billion in budget support.

Trump’s $500 billion fossil fuel claim isn’t a serious conversation. 1/ Zelensky: This morning, a poll showed that 57% of people trust me. So if anyone is thinking about replacing me right now it won’t happen.

As for the claim about 4%, we’ve seen this disinformation and understand that it comes from Russia. 2/

Lavrov says NATO is the cause of the war and Trump, unlike Biden, acknowledges it

Lavrov: Trump is the first and the only Western leader to publicly state that the cause of the Ukrainian crisis was its push for NATO.

(Ukraine did it only after Russia annexed Crimea)

1/ Lavrov: On February 20-21, a meeting of G20 foreign ministers will take place. Russia will once again obstruct the "Ukrainization" of the agenda.

2/

CNN: Trump administration's view on the war may align more with Moscow than with Europe or Ukraine.
Does that possibility alarm Ukrainians?

Me: Trump’s administration hasn’t challenged Russia, Russia reciprocates

Russia is trying to be sweet and kind to the U.S.
Does this mean Ukraine or Europe will be sold out?

No, decisions aren’t made only in Washington and Moscow. But, it can lead to more deaths.
1/ CNN: If the U.S., sell out Ukraine or push Ukraine to accept. Does Ukraine have the wherewithal to refuse and say no?

Me: Yes. Ukraine needs meaningful security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Without them, any deal is pointles.

Giving up territory, weakening the military, and losing support would leave Ukraine worse off than before.

In that case, saying no is the only option.

2/

Lavrov: We don’t agree to stop attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure because we never attacked it.

Zelensky must be constrained so he doesn’t attack us.

Also, the U.S. and Russian differences are small, the U.S. wants to get peace. 0/ Lavrov: Russia and the U.S. have agreed to narrow their differences on international affairs and economic relations, as well as their mutual desire to find concrete solutions. 1/

I think Zelensky is pissed off.

Zelensky: I will not travel to Saudi Arabia tomorrow; we have postponed the visit to March 10, and we expect U.S. representatives in Kyiv

I care about what our partners think of us. We are absolutely honest and open. That is why I will not go there

1/ Zelensky: The U.S.-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia was a surprise to us. We were not invited.

I do not know who will stay there [in Saudi Arabia] and who will leave.

2/

The U.S. and Russia agreed in Saudi Arabia to continue to agree, but agreed on absolutely nothing, except to establish a mechanism to facilitate agreement. Yes, I am serious. It is a big nothing.

Specifically, 1/ The State department says that the sprites agreed to

1. Establish a consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship with the objective of taking steps necessary to normalize the operation of our respective diplomatic missions

(I though that was it) 2/

Zelensky says that if Ukraine won’t join NATO, it might become an Afghanistan

Zelensky: You can't just take NATO membership off the table. That's not how it works. I don't think anyone is interested in an Afghanistan 2.0. 1/ Zelensky: Today, the US is saying things that are very pleasant for Putin. That's the core. Because they want to please him.

Do you know why? To meet each other and have a quick success.

A ceasefire is not a success. 2/

Russia says it recognizes Ukraine’s sovereign right to join the EU. What a sudden change!

Asked if Ukraine could one day join the European Union, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "This is the sovereign right of any country," Reuters 1/ This is of course a far cry from saying Ukraine in NATO is ok for Russia. But it is a meaningful change. It is for the first time, in my memory, Russia acknowledges sovereignty of Ukraine 2/

Putin wants NATO troops removed from Eastern Europe: the Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic etc

Trump is likely to agree to withdrawal from the Baltics, wires FT 1/ Still seems implausible to me, but Politico takes it seriously and even runs the numbers.

The U.S. has 80,000 troops in Europe - 25% more than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 2/