Bolton: Iran deal requires Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. I see zero chance of that.

But it gives Iran, through Hezbollah, the ability to punish Israel and have Trump and Vance criticize the Israelis for defending themselves. A powerful political weapon. 1/ Bolton: This deal is a powerful tool to split the Great Satan from the Little Satan.

Vance's vitriol toward Israel, saying it was 'built with American money', won't sit well with Israelis or Americans who view Israel as a key ally. Vance has embraced the role of architect here. 2/

Britain is building long-range missiles for Ukraine without U.S. components.

Washington has repeatedly delayed or limited the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow for strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine gets weapons no one in Washington can veto — FT. 1/ The project is called Brakestop.

The UK unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace.

After more tests this year, one or more could reach Ukraine by the end of 2026. 2/

Hodges: Putin's nightmare — momentum shifts irreversibly in Ukraine's favor. He loses oil and gas exports. Oligarchs push back openly. Europe begins stopping shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and Black Sea.

When all of that converges — it's over for him. He'll know it. 1/ Hodges: Russia's professional military knows Putin's war has destroyed or severely damaged Russia's armed forces — even Russia's ability to defend itself.

I could imagine the military leadership at some point saying: this is enough. We want to accelerate to that point. 2/

Hodges: The Kerch Bridge is a high-payoff target, not just logistically but psychologically. Destroying Putin's bridge would demolish morale and erode the false narrative of inevitable Russian victory

The Ukrainians will pick the right time. It will require a lot of explosive 1/ Hodges: Russia can't rebuild the Kerch Bridge quickly — especially if an entire span drops. There's a reason no bridge existed there before. Massive engineering undertaking.

The Ukrainians have already been degrading its defenses and weakening the structure systematically. 2/

Hodges: Crimea dominates the Black Sea, it's why Catherine the Great took it in the 18th century. If Russia holds it, they block access to the Azov Sea and disrupt everything out of Odessa.

It's in the interest of all of us that Ukraine regains control of Crimea. 1/ Hodges: Crimea is doable. The geography that makes it important also makes it vulnerable. Ukraine now has the range — drones, missiles, weapons platforms — to touch every target.

No airfields, no logistics bases, no radar safe. There is no place to hide on that peninsula. 2/

Kuleba: In Brussels, European leaders were stunned by Ukraine's strikes on Moscow. To say they were impressed is to say nothing.

But I was told some leaders are frightened by Ukraine's strength, they see strategically what kind of powerful player is emerging on their doorstep 1/ Kuleba: The effect is triple. They're glad Ukraine hits back hard. But they see a new Ukraine forming — one that will join the EU and will be a force.

And they're terrified about what happens with Russia next. Europeans fear uncontrolled developments there. It paralyzes them. 2/

Kuleba: Hungary's Magyar blocked five EU negotiation clusters with Ukraine. But he is not Orbán.

He faces huge domestic pressure from Fidesz supporters accusing him of selling out Hungarian interests. He boasted publicly because he needs to contain that pressure at home. 1/ Kuleba: Magyar wasn't alone. Behind him, other EU members gladly hid — including some who welcomed Zelenskyy in Brussels with smiles.

Two reasons: Ukraine is too large and will have too much influence. And the EU itself is not ready for such a major enlargement. 2/

Fedorov, Ukraine’s Defense Minister: Western allies pledged $4 billion in new military aid to Ukraine at the Ramstein-format meeting in Belgium.

The packages cover air defense missiles, drones, and artillery, as Russia keeps striking Ukrainian cities, Kyiv Independent. 1/ Nearly $1 billion of that sum will flow through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL, to buy interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems.

Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, and Sweden cover most of it. Nine countries confirmed their part in PURL. 2/

"My female happiness is 120 dead Russians a day. A bit different from the most.

Overall, happiness is the same for men, women, and children." — Sarakin, commander of a strike drone company in Ukraine's K-2 Unmanned Systems Forces for hromadske.

1/ Sarakin: I have never given, and will never give, an order I'm not ready to carry out myself.

If we enter a new zone, I go first — then I move people to prepared positions.

2/

Zelenskyy: Lukashenko says he doesn't want to be dragged into this war. He should be honest with his own people.

It's not him being dragged in, it's his entire country, dragged in by Russia. They've been doing this since day one of the full-scale invasion. That is a fact. 1/ Zelenskyy: When the full-scale war began, missiles flew from Belarus — killing children, killing adults.

He called and apologized, said he didn't control it, that Russia acted on his territory. I don't believe that. Now Russia will keep pushing him deeper into this war. 2/

Keane: If we can’t go any place we want, when we want, for as long as we want, we don’t have verification.

Any Iran deal must include anywhere, anytime inspections. 1/ Keane: Iran manipulated the IAEA for years. Old protocol let Tehran decide where, when, and how long to inspect.

U.S. and Mossad intelligence must drive inspections. When it pointed to secret sites, enrichment, or centrifuges, Iran said: No deal. That’s not in the protocol. 2/

Fukuyama on Trump's Iran deal: This was not a win. It was a total US capitulation, merely solving a problem that Trump and Netanyahu themselves created by launching the war in the first place.

No regime change. No surrender. The IRGC is more firmly in control than ever before 1/ Fukuyama: No commitment to stop enriching uranium. No commitment to ending support for Hezbollah or Houthis. No agreement on protesters. All kicked down the road into 60-day negotiations.

Trump treated these issues as already conceded. But if so — why weren't they in the MOU? 2/

Petraeus: Ukraine will manufacture 7 million drones this year, doubled from last year. They use 10,000 per day.

Software changes every week or two, hardware every three to four weeks. About 60% of battlefield drones now use fiber optic cable extending 30 to 35 kilometers. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine created an entirely new military branch, an Unmanned Systems Force alongside army, navy, and air force.

This organization is inflicting over 90% of all casualties on Russians on the battlefield daily. No other country has done anything like it. 2/

Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/

Petraeus: There is a death zone of about 35 kilometers on the front lines in Ukraine. You do not drive a vehicle in it.

Commanders cannot visit their troops. There are no trenches, drones fly through trenches. Only survivability positions underground. You burrow in from the side. 1/ Petraeus: All resupply is done by remotely driven vehicles. Medical evacuation, ammunition, food, batteries — everything.

Soldiers come out at night to collect supplies and get back underground before the enemy can react. That is the reality of this war right now. 2/

Browder: If Putin ends this war, the Russian people will say, why did you get us into this mess? What have we accomplished? What have we lost?

They would remove him from power. And if he is removed from power, he ends up dying. Jailed, money taken, hung from a lamp post. 1/ Browder: The Ukrainians cannot give up either. If they do, the Russians occupy their territory, rape the women, kill the men, and kidnap the children.

Both sides have fundamentally different reasons for not stopping — but neither side can afford to stop fighting this war. 2/

Hodges: I was surprised Trump agreed to a fairly strong G7 statement on Ukraine.

He hasn't even been able to say Russia is the aggressor, that they're the bad guy. So I was pleased to see he at least agreed with the other G7 members. But we will see if it holds. 1/ Hodges: What we should be hearing from the president and his entire team is this: it is in the best interest of America and Europe that Ukraine defeats Russia, and that Russia has to live inside their own borders.

That is what is in the best interest of all of us. 2/

Hodges: After 12 years of war, remember, this started in 2014, Russia still controls only about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

The Black Sea Fleet has been defeated. The only thing Russia can still do is get their soldiers killed and murder innocent Ukrainian civilians. 1/ Hodges: Ukraine has figured out the path to victory — the destruction of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure so Russia cannot export to China, India, and other customers.

Without those revenues, it will be very difficult for Russia to continue sustaining this war. 2/

Federov: Of the $60 billion Ramstein target, $40 billion has been announced so far, but only $24 billion is in the delivery schedule.

We need the remaining $20 billion invested in what actually wins: Ukrainian drones, extended-range artillery, and anti-ballistic air defense. 1/ Federov: We are asking our partners to look at the window of opportunity that exists right now. We did our homework.

We continue doing our homework. We just need partners to seize this moment and help us achieve the result — before that window closes on all of us. 2X

Snyder: Russia's 2022 war plan was not a military plan, it was a political plan. It assumed Ukraine is artificial, not real, invented by the West. Within days they expected to be in Kyiv.

Not because of military calculation, because they believed no one would fight back. 1/ Snyder: Putin read intelligence through a worldview where Ukraine isn't real. Agents promised support once troops came. In that framework — invade and everyone sides with you.

All that money paid to agents led to nothing. People in Ukraine were politically Ukrainian. 2/

Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.

Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/ Macron: Every three months, Western and Russian analysts predict Ukraine will finally collapse.

Every three months, they are proven categorically wrong. Ukraine is resisting with stunning innovation and a military production capacity that no one anticipated. 2/