Ukraine was supposed to have “no cards.” Now Putin is trapped in “zugzwang”.

Russia captured only 0.04% of Ukraine this year, lost territory in Apr, cut the Victory Day parade to 45 minutes, and now fears Ukrainian drones near Moscow, George Will for the WP. 1/ Zelenskyy turned Putin’s main war ritual into a security problem.

Ukraine “permitted” the May 9 parade by not striking Red Square, while fewer troops and vehicles appeared because Moscow feared drone attacks on staging areas. 2/

Russia's war spending can exceed its budget by at least $28 billion this year. In a worst-case scenario — $56 billion over.

The Finance Ministry asked the cabinet to freeze $40 billion of planned civilian spending through 2028 to cover the shortfall, FT.

1/ Russia allocated $238 billion, nearly 40% of this year's entire budget, to defence and security. Still not enough.

In the first four months of 2026, Russia's deficit already hit 2.5% of GDP — the largest since the full-scale invasion began.

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Ukraine hit Rosneft's Saratov oil refinery in southwestern Russia.

The plant processes 7 million tons of crude per year and produces fuel for Russia's military. This is the third strike on it this year. — Bloomberg. 1/ The same night, Ukraine hit an oil-pumping station on the Surgut-Gorky-Polotsk pipeline in central Russia's Kirov region.

Russia's Defense Ministry said 216 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.

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Russia declared it had captured all of Luhansk. Ukrainian drones answered by striking Izvaryne, the crossing on the Russian border that funnels armor, ammunition, and troops into the region.

The deepest strike landed 205 km inside occupied territory — Kyiv Post. 1/ Izvaryne is the primary artery moving heavy equipment and reinforcements from mainland Russia to the Donbas front.

Cut it, and resupply into occupied Luhansk slows for thousands of Russian troops. 2/

Valery Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces:

“It is impossible to create a reliable counterbalance to Russia in the Black Sea without Ukraine.” — Interfax. 1/ Ukraine’s participation in shaping the future security space in the region is only possible through membership in a political and security alliance. 2/

Sen. Chris Murphy: Trump does not want to do what is necessary to support Ukraine, and Republicans follow his lead.

A bipartisan Russia sanctions bill has sat for a year and a half because Trump will not let Senate Republicans move it. 1/ Murphy: Congress allocated $400 million to help Ukraine, and Trump has not spent a dime of it despite loud public and private protests from Senate Republicans.

He has decided he does not want to help Ukraine, and Republicans lack the courage to fight back. 2/

Bolton: The ceasefire has been a gift from God to the Iranian regime.

If Trump will not return to full-scale military activity, the minimum is clear: open the Gulf Arab side of Hormuz, get Arab oil and gas out, and keep Iranian exports blocked. 1/ Bolton: When diplomats say “sequencing” is the only problem, hold on to your wallet.

It usually means there is a much bigger problem they are trying to obscure. 2/

Bolton: Trump is getting what he wants, a deal about gasoline prices at the pump. He worries about inflation and November.

But this is not a deal that ends the war in a satisfactory way for the U.S. If Iran’s regime survives, we will be right back where we started. 1/ Bolton: If Iran’s regime survives and the Strait reopens, Tehran will sell more oil, gain more revenue and entrench itself in power.

It will get time to rebuild its nuclear program, its military and its terrorist proxies. 2/

While Russia fights in Ukraine, it loses Armenia.

Babel: June 7— Armenian parliamentary elections. First since Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 while Russian peacekeepers did nothing.

Pashinyan runs on: no CSTO, EU visa-free, peace deal with Azerbaijan and Turkey. 1/ Pashinyan shifted positions multiple times. In 2021 he called Russia a strategic ally.

Now he wears a pin shaped like Armenia’s map — without Karabakh. He says Karabakh was never Armenian land. He once said: “Artsakh is Armenia, period.” 2/

For 15 years Russia kept two Tu-142 patrol aircraft parked at the Taganrog plant, too deep in the rear for Ukraine to reach.

This spring Russia moved them. Ukrainian drones destroyed both within weeks — United24. 1/ Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces hit the two aircraft overnight on May 30 near Taganrog, in Russia's Rostov region.

The Tu-142 is a long-range patrol aircraft built from the Soviet Tu-95 bomber to hunt submarines and shadow navies. 2/

Ukraine's military intelligence says its strike drones now fly 3,500 km, far enough to reach every target in Russia up to the Urals and nearly to Krasnoyarsk in Siberia.

The previous record was 1,750 km, set in Feb 2026. The reach has doubled — 24 Channel. 1/ That record came in Feb 2026, when Ukraine's SBU drones hit the Lukoil refinery in Komi, then the deepest strike of the war.

The new reach opens Siberian industry to the same drones already hitting Russia's western refineries. 2/

Zelenskyy: Lifting sanctions helps Russian soldiers and Russia’s defense industry.

Russians do not understand words or emotions; they see that as weakness. That is why we must be strong and put sanctions on them. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia stole thousands of Ukrainian children. We know about 20,000 by name and have brought back only 2,200, around 10%.

Russia even proposed exchanging children for soldiers. That proves they stole the children. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia is preparing another big attack with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

People must be very careful and use shelters. The last massive strike had more than 600 Iranian Shaheds and around 90 missiles. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia uses drone incidents toward Romania, Poland,

Moldova and the Baltics as political and military pressure on NATO. Putin is watching the reaction and testing the air defense of countries bordering Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. 2/

Ukraine and Iran expose the same illusion: technology delivers a quick victory

The Economist: bridges and power plants are now standard targets in war planning. In 2022 US put 50-50 odds on Russia going nuclear if Ukraine broke through to Crimea. The red lines exist,but where?1/ The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme counted 65 active state-based conflicts in 2025—the highest number since records began in 1946.

The Peace Research Institute Oslo calls the past four years the most violent period since the Cold War. 2/

Gordon Brown: a special tribunal, modelled on Nuremberg, will prosecute Putin's inner circle for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.

The Council of Europe and EU agreed on the mechanism this month. — The Guardian.

1/ Why not the ICC: the ICC cannot prosecute Russia's leaders for the crime of aggression because Russia is not party to the Rome Statute, and Russia's UN Security Council veto blocks any referral.

The special tribunal fills that gap.

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The richest person in Ukraine Renat Akhmetov: Russia is 2% of global GDP, invests zero in technology. They are less prepared for tomorrow’s battle than were for today’s.

Putin’s troops are stuck. “Putin has no reason to end the war.” I think he has no reason to continue it.

1/ Akhmetov: When Russians arrived in Mariupol, nobody greeted them with flowers — children grabbed stones and rocks.

After the city fell, Azovstal defenders held out against 73,000 Russian troops. Mariupol was always Ukraine.

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Kasparov: Ukraine performed a historical miracle.

The coming funeral of the Russian Empire, which I believe is not far away, is the result of the heroism of the Ukrainian people and, yes, of Zelenskyy’s political leadership. 1/ Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war. It is an imperial war, the logical continuation of Russian imperial history.

Without Ukraine there is no Russian Empire, and Putin understands that with his imperial sixth sense. 2/

Kasparov: Lavrov’s threat to foreign diplomats is not normal diplomacy. It shows Russia has problems and is trying to solve them with threats and bluff.

Bluff has always been Putin’s weapon: weak cards, higher stakes, and the hope that Europe’s hands will shake. 1/ Kasparov: Europe still cannot say the magic formula: Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.

Everyone understands it behind the scenes, but politically they still refuse to define the strategic goal of the war, so they keep maneuvering around the real issue. 2/

Kasparov: The attack on Kyiv looks less like a demonstration of strength than an outlet for Putin’s anger. The situation is turning against him.

Even inside his information vacuum, reality is breaking through: the war is no longer moving west, it is moving east. 1/ Kasparov: Putin’s trip to China was likely unpleasant. The Power of Siberia 2 deal was not signed.

That suggests Xi is diversifying and may be developing doubts about Putin’s ability not only to control the situation, but to hold on at all. 2/

Fukuyama: Ukrainians have systematically taken out Russian air defenses in Crimea with medium range drones and missiles. The peninsula depends on a narrow land route through the isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine now reportedly controls the isthmus from the air and has repeatedly attacked the bridge. 1/ Fukuyama: It would not be surprising if Russia decided within the next year that its position in Crimea was untenable and began withdrawing forces, just as it has already withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet. Such a withdrawal would be an enormous political defeat for Putin. 2X

That’s quite clear now that Europe is preparing for a future without the US. Where America is no longer the center of the Western alliance.

Trump spent years demanding loyalty from allies. Instead, Europe is slowly building systems designed to function without Washington, FP. 1/ At first, European leaders tried to keep Trump happy.

UK PM Starmer offered an unprecedented second state visit. NATO Chief Rutte called Trump “daddy.” European governments boosted defense spending and increased support for Ukraine. 2/