Zaluzhnyi: Do not assume Russia has lost the war.

Russia has not achieved its original political objectives. But it still fights, occupies substantial Ukrainian territory, and shows no intention of accepting terms that would mean defeat, — for Telegraph. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine cannot yet claim outright victory either.

Kyiv has stopped Russia’s main goals and damaged its economy and military. But Ukraine still depends heavily on Western money, weapons, technology, and air defense. 2/

A Russian ex-convict spent a decade in Ukraine under a fake identity, built weapons for the front, and married three women who never knew his real name.

Now Interpol wants him, and Ukraine may hand him over. His real name is Ruslan Puptaev, Babel. 1/ Born 1987 in Kyrgyzstan, raised in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region. Convicted twice — theft at 16, assault at 19.

Russian courts gave him 9 years. 2/

Volker, ex US-NATO Amb.: Zelenskyy has figured out how to deal with Trump.

By making clear that Ukraine wants a ceasefire and wants to end the war, he puts the spotlight on Putin, who doesn't. That gives Trump the best chance to pressure Russia. 1/ Volker: Europe needs Ukraine inside NATO. Russia is a threat to all of Europe.

Ukraine is already one of Europe's most capable countries in defending Europe, fighting Russia and producing the defence technology, industry and know-how everybody will need. 2/

Petr Pavel: Ukraine may have about two months to force talks before Russia’s September elections.

After Sept. 20, Putin could declare a general mobilisation and shrink the window for peace, — The Telegraph. 1/ Pavel: Putin is unlikely to mobilise before parliamentary elections because it would be deeply unpopular. But once the vote is over, the political cost changes. 2/

Stubb: Finland and Sweden wouldn't be in NATO without Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Europe wouldn't be ramping up its industry without the lessons learned from Ukraine. NATO needs Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs NATO.

1/ Stubb: Three years ago, if someone told me Europe would be doing tens of billions in European defense industry deals and actually sharing the burden — I would have taken it and run.

2/

At 69, Tetiana Tepliuk defended Azovstal under full encirclement, then spent 7 months in Russian captivity. Now 74 — she is back on active duty.

Soldiers call her "Khreshchena." The Godmother. — U24.

1/ In the bunkers, she refused to eat her own rations.

Khreshchena: "Every evening, we were given a spoonful of sugar and a spoonful of honey. I saved it and gave it to two soldiers — the sugar to one, and the honey to the other."

2/

Applebaum: Putin's war has finally reached Moscow.

Muscovites have lost cell service, struggled to use ATMs and come under drone attacks.

They understand Russia isn't winning. Putin won't fall tomorrow, but it has shifted the mood of Russia's business and political elite. 1/ Applebaum: Russia's system will eventually change.

Nobody knows who will succeed Putin or how that person will be chosen. There is no Politburo or ruling party to pick the next leader. The successor will emerge from Russia's elite groups. 2/

Trump: If it's necessary to close the skies over Ukraine — yeah.

1/ Trump: When we have a deal, we're gonna have a deal.

Security guarantee or no security guarantee. We're not gonna have to worry about that.

2X

Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either.

What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns.

1/ Stubb: Ukraine's long-range strikes took down 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.

2/

Trump turned NATO from a security guarantee into a paid service. Allies buy American weapons, and in return the US keeps protecting them.

They committed nearly $120B in the past year and spent half of it on US-made arms — Politico. 1/ Trump demanded that allies raise defense spending from 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent, or risk losing US protection altogether.

He has often threatened to quit the alliance if they fall short. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tied higher spending to faster US arms sales. 2/

Greek shipping companies made $4B moving Russian oil while G7 states tried to cut the Kremlin’s energy cash.

The trade stayed legal under the price cap. The money kept flowing anyway, — FT. 1/ Dynacom Tankers made the most — $915M from Russian crude since July 2023.

Olympic Shipping, part of the Onassis Group — $404M.
Stealth Maritime and Polembros each made more than $200M. 2/

Europe is preparing for the once-unthinkable — defending the continent against Russia with little or no US help.

NATO's plans from a year ago assumed the US would carry nearly 40% of the warfighting burden. This share now almost certain to shrink after year of lost trust in Trump, — FT. 1/ The shift is driven by a string of shocks.
Trump's threat to take Greenland by force, cancelled US troop deployments, a national security strategy hostile to Europe, and recriminations over the lack of European support for his war in Iran. 2/

EU’s 21st sanctions package could hit 90 more Russian banks, pushing banned lenders past 100 — over half of Russia’s internationally connected financial institutions.

A confidential European report warns of an explosive banking crisis, United24. 1/ Russia’s Economy Ministry cut GDP growth forecasts: 2026 to 0.4% from 1.3%, and 2027 to 1.4% from 2.8%.
The report says 10% of corporate loans look questionable; in 2025, bad retail loans at several large banks hit 15%. 2/

Ukraine’s Patriot gap is getting worse. Kyiv used to intercept roughly 1/3 of Russian ballistic missiles, sometimes more.

Last week the rate fell below 20%. This week, during Russia’s attack on Kyiv, Ukraine did not shoot down any ballistic projectiles, Bloomberg. 1/ Rutte: Allies do not have an endless supply of missile interceptors.
There is a limit to the amount of interceptors that are in NATO territory, he said before NATO leaders meet in Ankara. But NATO is working from every angle to produce more. 2/

Rutte: Russia's war machine is not unstoppable.

Right now, Ukraine is changing the dynamics on the battlefield, thanks to the bravery, the dedication, and ingenuity of its armed forces — United24. 1/ Rutte spoke on July 6 at a press conference in Ankara, ahead of the 2026 summit and its latest support for Kyiv.
He tied Ukraine's front-line progress to its soldiers, naming their courage, commitment, and inventiveness as the qualities driving the shift against Moscow. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia believed no one could reach its strategic rear — its factories, equipment, everything the war depends on.

We reached them. Ukraine in NATO is extraordinary defensive capability. The threat stays next door for a long time. We stay ready.

1/ Zelenskyy: War has changed as fundamentally as when machine guns decided WWI battles, or when tanks reshaped WWII.

Today drones and long-distance warfare represent that same revolutionary shift.

2/

Head of Zelenskyy’s Office Budanov: Russia used to plan an attack on Europe only after finishing Ukraine.

Now their plans are adjusting — they're ready for both simultaneously. All documents pointed to combat readiness by early 2027. That's not far away.

1/ Budanov: Russia’s Duma elections in September — do they matter? Look at 2024.

People fled Belgorod in columns as the operation hit the city. Belgorod recorded Russia’s highest voter turnout. They’ll draw whatever results they need.

2X

Budanov: Russians believe in "3+2": Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk plus the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia

Recognition of full Russian sovereignty over all of it. That's what they call the "spirit of Anchorage" and apparently Americans read something into that term too.1/ Budanov: We've gone too far for legislative compromises to matter. You think making Russian the second state language gets Crimea back?

No. Everything gets decided on the battlefield and in offices — together, as a package.

2/

Head of Zelenskyy’s Office Budanov: If Russia knew this war would last longer than their beloved Great Patriotic War, they wouldn't have started it.

Not would they have. No. People I've encountered on the Russian side say the same.

1/ Budanov: Ukrainian production finally hit serious scale — that increased intensity, intensity produced results.

The goal: exhaust and destroy enemy capabilities. Right now we're destroying their logistics.

2/

A Ukrainian crew of six fighters destroyed about 20 Russian radars over Bryansk and opened a corridor into Russia's rear.

Blinding that air defense first is what lets Ukraine's deep-strike drones reach the refineries and oil ports deep inside Russia — Oboronka. 1/ The frontline holds Russia's densest air defense and jamming. Russia downs most Ukrainian deep-strike drones at the border, before they reach targets in its rear.

So the 1st SBS Center flipped the sequence and cleared that wall first, before the long-range drones fly. 2/

Ukraine cannot keep its Soviet Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters flying long term, because most parts come from Russia.

Army Aviation will switch to the US UH-60 Black Hawk. Its commander, Brigadier General Pavlo Bardakov, said several projects are already underway — United24. 1/ Bardakov: New equipment for Army Aviation is inevitable — the entire helicopter fleet is tied to spare parts and components, most produced in Russia.

He said shortages are not expected in the next year or two, but Ukraine must move to a new platform over the medium term. 2/