Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
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Mar 13 12 tweets 2 min read
Russia built a new secret assassination unit after GRU Unit 29155 was burned across Europe.

Center 795 was designed to be harder to trace, more autonomous, able to do from battlefield sabotage in Ukraine to killing abroad.

It was compromised by Google Translate, The Insider. 1/ Image Center 795 was created in Dec 2022 by Russia’s General Staff as Military Unit 75127.

Unlike Unit 29155, it reported directly to Valery Gerasimov and was built as a “full-cycle” shadow army handling intelligence, surveillance, sabotage, and assassination. 2/
Mar 13 11 tweets 2 min read
Vovchansk today looks worse than Bakhmut in 2023. Russians drop guided bombs daily. I cannot imagine how many millions it would take just to clear the rubble — let alone rebuild, says commander of the 57th Brigade Vitaliy Popovych to Hromadske. 1/ Image In three months of his command — over 1,000 Russians killed and around 800 wounded. Four battalions destroyed or crippled. The combat core of the brigade will not fight again. 2/
Mar 13 5 tweets 2 min read
Bolton: Trump could declare victory over Iran and pull out at any moment — and that’s a problem. The public was never prepared for regime change.

Many leaders since the Cold War assumed history had ended, but the world is still dangerous and requires serious strategy.

1/ Bolton: Trump often looks for an off-ramp. My concern is he may damage Iran but stop before regime change happens.

That would leave the same regime in power — wounded and more desperate for revenge. If he wasn’t ready to finish it, he shouldn’t have started the war.

2/
Mar 13 8 tweets 3 min read
Petr Ruzavin, Russian journalist, now fights for Ukraine: As a Russian, you exhaust all tools that could have influenced anything.

I worked as a journalist for 15 years. But against the backdrop of war, you question how significant your profession is.

1/ Q: Did you cut off your Russian identity by joining Ukraine's army?

Ruzavin: I am Russian. I never stopped being Russian. This is a new chapter — I was a journalist, now I am military. My answer to responsibility: I fight for Ukraine.

2/
Mar 13 6 tweets 3 min read
Hegseth: Iran has plenty of cameras and voice recorders. So why only a written statement from the new supreme leader?

His father is dead. Mojtaba Khamenei is injured, scared, and on the run. He lacks legitimacy — and no one may even know who is in charge.

1/ Hegseth: Iran has no real air defenses, air force, or navy left. Their missiles, launchers, and drones are being destroyed.

Missile attacks are down about 90%, and one-way attack drones dropped about 95%.

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Mar 13 6 tweets 3 min read
Bessent: India buying Russian oil was inevitable. That’s why we gave a 30-day waiver.

The oil was already on the water and refineries needed supply. Otherwise it would have gone to China. It’s unfortunate Russia benefits, but we hope only for a short time.

1/ Bessent: Our actions were not about China. They were about U.S. interests. Venezuela had become close to a failed narco-state.

The goal is to protect the Western Hemisphere and support Latin American countries moving toward market economies and closer ties with the U.S.

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Mar 13 4 tweets 2 min read
Petraeus: Iran only needs to attack once or twice a day to scare shipping companies. The risk is people’s lives, not the ships.

Some oil can bypass the Gulf, but only about 5–6 million barrels. Normally about 20 million barrels a day go through the Gulf.

1/ Petraeus: The key question is whether cracks appear inside Iran’s regime as the country is damaged around them.

But the leadership may see survival alone as victory — even if everything else is destroyed.

2X
Mar 13 6 tweets 3 min read
Shtilierman, Co-founder of Fire Point, Ukraine’s biggest private drone maker: Russia is a monocentric state — everything revolves around Moscow.

Strikes in remote regions don’t affect the leadership. Real pressure comes from hitting military and industrial targets in Moscow.

1/ Shtilierman: FP-9 ballistic missile could hit targets in Moscow due to extreme speed. Over 10,000 m/s vs 800 m/s for an Iskander.
That makes air defenses far harder to stop, with some still breaking through. Cruise missiles or drones can’t strike major targets in Moscow today.2/
Mar 12 18 tweets 3 min read
Russia blesses nuclear weapons in Orthodox churches. It frames war as a crusade against the satanic West.

Its generals treat peace as a phase where meanings replace missiles. This is Russia’s working strategic culture, writes Igor Semyvolos in Texty. 1/ Image American strategists wrongly assumed Soviet leaders thought like they did.

For the USSR, war was not a cost-benefit equation — it was a product of history, geography and political structure. 2/
Mar 12 6 tweets 2 min read
UN: Russia stole at least 1,205 of Ukrainian children since 2022, and transferred them to Russian-controlled territory. 80% have not returned.

Putin’s involvement was visible from the outset.

It is a crime against humanity — The Times.

1/ Image Russia placed children in families across 21 regions.

Some received Russian citizenship. Some appeared in adoption databases. Some got draft papers from the Russian military.

2/
Mar 12 8 tweets 2 min read
France spent £53bn on defence last year. Britain spent £60bn. France fields 200,000 active troops. Britain fields 150,000. France has 261 combat aircraft. Britain has 201.

Paris spends less and gets more — The Telegraph.

1/ Image France spends 90% of its defence budget on French firms. De Gaulle built that doctrine in the 1960s — domestic production, sovereign nuclear deterrent, no foreign dependencies.

Britain never built the same industrial base.

2/
Mar 11 7 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine will train the German army.

Berlin agreed that Ukrainian military instructors will teach German troops combat lessons from the war against Russia as NATO prepares for a potential confrontation by 2029, Reuters. 1/ Image German army chief Christian Freuding: “The Ukrainian military is currently the only one in the world with frontline experience against Russia.”

He said Germany has “high expectations” from the Ukrainian instructors. 2/
Mar 11 6 tweets 3 min read
Kurt Volker: The world is not moving in Russia’s direction.

Putin believes he can manipulate Trump, divide the West, support far-right parties and undermine democracy using disinformation and social media.

He knows that if he loses this game, he loses everything. 1/ Volker: Dictators are threatened by democracy, especially near them where their own people could say: ‘We should have that too.’

That is why Putin sees a democratic, prosperous, sovereign Ukraine as a threat. Russian people could see the hollowness inside his regime. 2/
Mar 11 10 tweets 2 min read
Kim Jong-un watched the US bomb Iran and drew one conclusion.

Last week he launched a missile from the Choe Hyon — North Korea’s largest warship. He called it “satisfactory progress.” The message was for every regime watching Iran burn — The Guardian. 1/ Image Iran chased a nuclear weapon for decades and never got one. The US bombed it anyway. Saddam had no nuclear weapon.

Gaddafi gave his up. Both are dead. Kim watched all three and built 50 warheads — with material for 40 more. 2/
Mar 11 5 tweets 2 min read
Peter Magyar, Hungarian opposition leader, a year ago: Hungary is Europe — not Russia or Asia.

Hungarians are proud of their nation, but also proud Europeans, and Hungary’s direction should remain firmly in Europe.

1/ Magyar: Since 2010, Orbán and Fidesz always need an enemy — Soros, Brussels, EU leaders.

Now they label opponents “foreign agents” to distract from Hungary’s real problems.

2/
Mar 11 8 tweets 3 min read
Zelenskyy: I warned Trump about World War III. Russia already supports Iran with drones, missiles, and air defense.

The question is when troops appear — like the 10,000 North Korean soldiers now in Russia. The same could happen with Iran if Russia sends forces.

1/ Zelenskyy: Air raid sirens have become part of daily life in Ukraine.

Like defending against missiles and Shaheds, stopping Putin also requires quick steps — without them, you risk being destroyed.

2/
Mar 10 4 tweets 2 min read
Fukuyama: Trump likely hoped for a quick victory with Israel.

But within days Iran was launching missiles and drones across the region, making clear the conflict could last weeks. Instead of setting limited goals, Trump did the opposite and raised expectations.

1/ Fukuyama: Strategic bombing alone has rarely achieved political goals.

Two main exceptions were Japan’s surrender after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and Kosovo, where NATO air strikes helped trigger a revolt against Milošević.

2/
Mar 10 9 tweets 2 min read
Aug. 2025: Ukraine offered the U.S. cheap drones to shoot down Iran’s Shahed drones. The U.S. didn’t move forward.

March 2026: Those same drones are hitting U.S. troops in the Middle East and the U.S. is asking Ukraine how to stop them. — Axios 1/ Image Ukraine is the most experienced country in fighting Shahed drones, which Russia has used by the thousands.

Kyiv developed cheap interceptor drones designed specifically to shoot them down. 2/
Mar 10 11 tweets 3 min read
Two winners have emerged from Trump’s Iran war. Neither one is America.

Russia cashes in on $100 oil. China watches the U.S. burn missiles it needs for Taiwan. Max Boot writes in Washington Post. 1/ Image Oil jumped from $73 to over $100 a barrel in days. Russia sells oil. Russia wins. Trump simultaneously relaxed sanctions on India for buying Russian oil.

Moscow’s war machine got a direct cash injection from Washington’s war in Tehran. 2/
Mar 9 4 tweets 2 min read
Macron: Nothing indicates war with Iran will cease in the coming days. The intense phase could last several days, perhaps several weeks.

Deep regime change cannot be achieved through bombardment, but neutralizing ballistic capabilities or a navy could be possible within weeks.1/ Macron: France is not part of the offensive against Iran.

Our objective is to protect our nationals, stand by allies if they come under fire, and stabilize the eastern Mediterranean — including helping Lebanon, which is under strong pressure.

2X
Mar 9 5 tweets 2 min read
6 Ukrainian veterans. Severe combat head trauma.

They need 2 months of rehabilitation to regain basic functions.

A full day of therapy costs $170.

Our KSE students launched a campaign to help raise $70,000 and cover the full course for all six.


1/ foundation.kse.ua/en/projects/st…Image Their names and what they want back:

Anton, 33 years old — to hold a guitar and sing for his wife.

Oleh, 31 — to dance a waltz with his daughter.

Leonid, 59 — to return to work and live independently.

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