Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
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Nov 28 9 tweets 2 min read
Azov fighter “Rusty” spent 2.5 years in Russian captivity — Olenivka, Taganrog, Donetsk, Makiivka.

At 26, he survived torture, starvation, a 29-year sham sentence and returned to fight. This is his story, as reported by ArmyInform. 1/ Image When Mariupol fell, he was in a mobile recon group changing 5-15 positions a day, reacting to tank breakthroughs, spotting artillery, raiding Russian units.

In the final days at Azovstal, Russian aviation carried out 110 bombing sorties a day on one plant. 2/
Nov 28 7 tweets 2 min read
CNN: Why did Yermak resign now?

Me: This is the only right move given the domestic political crisis, and it will strengthen President Zelenskyy. Today's raid of law enforcement in Yermak’s offices was unprecedented and shows institutional independence. 1/ Me: The timing of Yermak’s resignation is terrible for negotiations, but it also shows Ukraine’s state functioning. 2/
Nov 28 7 tweets 2 min read
If Satan has a residence on earth, it is in Russia, — former Kherson mayor Volodymyr Mykolayenko.

He survived Russian captivity, tells UP that Ukrainians have no second homeland — no spare country, only Ukraine and warns that part of the elite still behaves as if they do. 1/ Image The war wasn’t caused by abstract “mistakes,” but by geography and responsibility.

Ukrainians could not defend Russia’s media or constitution for Russians. Russians accepted Putin and many still do.

Endless “what ifs” change nothing when the front is 1,000 km long. 2/
Nov 28 7 tweets 2 min read
Trump has again pulled his son-in-law back into high-stakes diplomacy. This time on Ukraine.

FT: Jared Kushner helped draft the early peace text after the Gaza deal and fed in Russian input from Dmitriev’s side. Trump is now considering sending him to Moscow with Witkoff. 1/ Image Ukrainian officials noticed Kushner sitting directly at the table in Geneva, typing notes as ministers debated each clause.

Sergiy Kyslytsia said he was surprised to see him, but noted that Kushner “tracked every detail” of the talks. 2/
Nov 28 9 tweets 2 min read
Germany’s secret plan shows Berlin preparing for a real war with Russia.

With a continent-wide logistics machine moving up to 800,000 NATO soldiers on the East flank through German ports, rails, and autobahns. All-of-society shift back to Cold War logic, WSJ. 1/ Image Urgency stems from intel Russia could strike NATO by 2029 or earlier, amid growing sabotage and airspace intrusions.

A Ukraine armistice might free Moscow’s forces, so plan’s core aim is deterrence: make clear an attack won’t be successful. 2/
Nov 27 6 tweets 2 min read
Europe races to unlock Russia’s frozen money for Ukraine, writes Reuters.

EU wants to pull €140 billion from Russia’s immobilized sovereign assets to arm Ukraine and pay its budget. Belgium blocks the plan and time runs out.

1/ Image Belgium holds €185 billion of the €210 billion frozen in Europe.

Brussels fears lawsuits against Euroclear, court orders to return the cash and a Hungary veto that could unfreeze it overnight.

EU lawyers now scramble to plug every hole.

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Nov 27 10 tweets 2 min read
Trump’s Ukraine “peace” push swings like a pendulum, writes The Atlantic.

This month it swung hard to Moscow: a 28-point plan packed with Kremlin demands and Ukraine got 5 days to accept it.

1/ Image Army Sec. Dan Driscoll brought the ultimatum to Kyiv just as it leaked.

Streets swore, headlines screamed “capitulation”, but Zelenskyy did not slam the door. He agreed to talk and the U.S. quietly dropped the Thanksgiving deadline.

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Nov 27 7 tweets 2 min read
Putin sees no reason to stop the war in Ukraine.

He thinks Ukraine loses land, money and soldiers. U.S. patience thins, so he can force bigger concessions later, writes The New York Times.

1/ Image Putin tells aides he will get what he wants “if not now, then in six months, then in a year.”

He bombs power grids, grinds forward in Donetsk, and waits for Kyiv to break.

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Nov 27 11 tweets 2 min read
Fanpage asked me whether Ukraine is desperate enough to accept anything.

Me: We want to end the war — but not surrender Ukraine. We won’t say yes to everything. Even after the corruption scandal, Zelenskyy can clean house and widen his coalition to resist pressure. 1/ Image Me: Russia’s participation in any security-guarantee system is out of the question.

This was a red line since Istanbul 2022 — and still is. Dignity, sovereignty, and Ukraine’s identity are not negotiable. 2/
Nov 27 4 tweets 2 min read
Kasparov: NATO is weak, NATO does not exist, it is just four letters: “n”, “a”, ‘t’, “o”.

The reason you are still sitting here celebrating is that Ukraine is dying every minute.

If Ukraine weren't standing up, Russian tanks would already be in Poland!

1/ Kasparov: How anyone can seriously discuss a deal concocted by Trump's business partner?

This is a real estate deal to enrich the Trump family and sell Ukraine!

How can anyone seriously discuss that Ukraine will have to give up the fortifications that are saving Europe!?

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Nov 27 4 tweets 2 min read
McFaul: Millions of Americans and Europeans think in ideological struggle between illiberal nationalism and liberal internationalism that Putin's right.

There are Americans that agree more with Putin than me, despite the fact that we come from the same country. 1/ McFaul: China is highly intertwined with the global economy, different from the Cold War.

There is an ideological conflict but it is not as intense. When I hear politicians talk about the existential threat that is China, I disagree. 2/
Nov 27 4 tweets 1 min read
Ursula Fon Der Leyen: Sovereignty means choosing your own future.

Ukraine chose a European path, already integrating into the EU market and defense base.

Europe’s future is tied to Ukraine’s, and Ukraine’s future is in the EU — a core part of any real security guarantee.

1/ Ursula: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about Europe without Europe, nothing about NATO without NATO.

A future peace deal will rely on the EU and NATO to handle security guarantees, sanctions, reconstruction funding, and EU membership. 2/
Nov 27 7 tweets 2 min read
Rubio told European allies that the U.S. wants Ukraine to sign a peace deal before Washington agrees to any security guarantees — a major shift that has alarmed Europe, Politico reports. 1/ Image On a Tuesday call, Rubio said Trump will negotiate “long-term guarantees,” but only after Kyiv signs a deal with Moscow. Trump also refuses to invite Zelensky to the White House until the deal is done. 2/
Nov 26 7 tweets 2 min read
Trump pushes for peace in Ukraine — even if it means giving Russia land.

His team’s new 19-point plan would freeze the war but risks rewarding the invasion — Politico, WP.

Trump’s main goal, officials say, is to “stop the killing — whatever it takes.”

1/ Image The U.S. proposal, cut from 28 to 19 points, still includes major concessions: Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea, and a pledge Ukraine won’t join NATO.

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Nov 26 7 tweets 2 min read
Republicans now fight each other over Trump’s Ukraine deal.

Senator McConnell says the plan “rewards aggression” and hands Putin gains he failed to win in two years of war, writes The New York Times.

1/ Image Vance fires back. He calls McConnell’s warning a “ridiculous attack” and defends the draft deal that cuts Ukraine’s army and forces Kyiv to give up territory.

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Nov 26 8 tweets 2 min read
Timothy Snyder explains why Trump’s Ukraine “peace plan” is fatal and cannot produce lasting peace.

He writes six structural problems in the Witkoff–Dmitriev proposal in 1/ Wyborcza.plImage 1. Nuclear risk

If Ukraine is forced to accept territorial losses because Russia has nukes, every state concludes that only nuclear weapons prevent invasion.

That triggers global proliferation and raises the risk of a nuclear world war. 2/
Nov 26 4 tweets 1 min read
Putin ordered authorities to “strengthen Russian identity” in occupied Ukrainian regions. 95% of locals must identify as Russian by 2036 — Reuters.

The decree calls it “restoring the unity of historical Russian territories” and countering foreign attempts to create division.

1/ Image The decree will take effect in January.

It ties cultural and linguistic control directly to Putin’s justification for the 2022 invasion — to “protect Russian-speakers” and “reunify historical lands.”

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Nov 26 6 tweets 2 min read
“After 100 days on the position — the last 20 of them hell — I finally broke out of the encirclement,” Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr Honcharuk on his FB.

My brothers-in-arms “buried” me twice, because given the conditions I was in, they believed survival was almost impossible. 1/ Image Oleksandr: Someone shades captured villages in red, I think every day about my comrade who was killed just a few meters from me.

Our group came under mortar fire during movement, and Russian drones surrounded us, leaving almost no chance. 2/
Nov 26 8 tweets 2 min read
Zelenskyy is entering negotiations at his weakest moment since 2022 — hit by a $100M corruption scandal and facing a U.S.–Russia plan that Ukrainians see as capitulation.

I told the WSJ: “If we surrender to Russia in a meaningful way, more and not fewer people will die.” 1/ Image Me: “You can deny intelligence, you can deny support, but it won’t matter in the short run. Ukraine’s military is exhausted, but it is not in a mood to surrender.” 2/
Nov 26 6 tweets 2 min read
Keane: Putin has not made any concessions.

He believes the more the war is protracted and the killing goes on, the more he thinks he can weaken the resolve of the United States and European leaders and pressure Zelenskyy to make concessions. 1/ Keane: Putin has broken every deal he has ever been involved in — in Ukraine and Syria.

Zelenskyy wants security guarantees and forces there to make certain Putin won’t attack again. Some means of deterrence has to be worked on. 2/
Nov 26 7 tweets 1 min read
The Guardian: Trump sends Steve Witkoff to Moscow.

Trump says “a few disagreements” remain but refuses any summit until a deal is almost done.

Ukraine and Russia still refuse to move on territory and security.

1/ Image Zelenskyy says he can meet Trump “as soon as possible” and already edits the Geneva draft.

Trump instead sends Army Sec. Dan Driscoll to Kyiv, he suddenly becomes the key negotiator.

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