Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]:

Three large groups have formed in Russian society: 15% westernizers, 15% war beneficiaries who think Putin is not aggressive enough, and 70% who want the war to stop but on their terms, meaning Russia has not lost. 1/ Khodorkovsky: For Putin, Russian society is the foundation of his power over the security structures.
If society stops supporting him, his only support will be the secret services, and he will become dependent on them. He does not want this. 2/

Russia made 144 UAV sorties into European airspace over 19 months across more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland.

The campaign mapped NATO air-defense gaps, often near ports, airports, energy sites and military bases — FT. 1/ The campaign had no collective allied response.

Governments treated drone sightings as separate national incidents.

Some were reluctant to accuse Russia directly, even when the pattern pointed to coordinated activity. 2/

Ukraine is proposing a roadmap to stabilize relations with Poland after a dispute over historical memory.

Proposal has three tracks: foreign ministry consultations, meetings between WWII historians, and religious leaders joining bilateral dialogue — United24. 1/ The proposal was presented by FM Andrii Sybiha to Poland’s Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw.
Kyiv’s message — the dispute should be handled through institutions, not public escalation, and Moscow should not benefit from tension between allies. 2/

Five towns hold the Donbas. Ukraine has turned them into anti-drone net tunnels and kill zones Russia has battered for years.

This fortress belt is the 10% of the Donbas Russia demands in any peace deal. Losing it opens the lowlands to Dnipro, Kharkiv and Kyiv — The Guardian.1/ Lyman sits at the northern edge of the belt. Moscow's forces push daily to retake the city Ukraine drove them out of in the 2022 counteroffensive.

Spent fibre-optic cable from years of drone fighting now hangs so thickly over the buildings that fresh drones tangle in it. 2/

Firepoint co-founder Shtilierman: Ukraine does not need 300 km ballistic missiles. Moscow is not 300 km from our border.

Russia is a monocentric state, with power concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That is why Ukraine is developing longer-range ballistic capabilities. 1/ Shtilierman: We produce Flamingo missiles as much as we are ordered to produce.

The capacity is there. The bottleneck is bureaucracy around engine exports in Europe and the U.S.

2/

Russian intelligence started tracking Boris Johnson while he was an Oxford student in the 1980s.

The Kremlin called him "likeable but not trustworthy," said he had "no principles" and "could be easily manipulated," The Telegraph. 1/ Russian officers ruled out recruiting Johnson.

Their conclusion: "A manic self-promoter such as Johnson can't really be taken seriously as a candidate for any deep and lasting intelligence connection." 2/

Russia destroyed a Ukrainian Red Cross humanitarian warehouse in a massive overnight attack on Kyiv on July 2.

The strike caused over $1.76mn in damage to equipment and emergency supplies, United24. 1/ Russia launched 74 missiles and nearly 500 drones during the assault. It damaged about 100 residential buildings and caused direct hits on at least 20 others.

Air defense intercepted 4 ballistic missiles, 32 of 34 Kh-101s, 8 Kalibrs, 4 Kh-59/69s and 476 drones. 2/

Kasparov: Putin is a monster that feeds on blood. He has crossed every red line.

The death toll is already in the millions. His bunker is protected. He considers Europeans impotent. What will stop him? 1/ Kasparov: Ukrainian strikes will become more effective. Russia's air defense resources are limited. Problems in Russia will keep growing.

If this continues, Putin won't last long. Russia's system is corrupt from top to bottom and isn't prepared for serious challenges. 2/

Russia is planning an attack on Poland to test NATO, US warns.

The scenarios include missile and drone strikes on critical infrastructure or Russian troops crossing the border from Kaliningrad or Belarus, The Telegraph. 1/ Russian troops could cross into Poland and claim they entered by mistake because of GPS failure.

Another cover story: a mission to recover a disabled military helicopter. 2/

For four years, Putin tried to shield Russians from the war through silence and euphemisms.

Now drones hit Moscow, fuel shortages affect at least 56 regions.

Whatever officials do, they still avoid saying what is happening, — NYT. 1/ The war is still officially a Special Military Operation.

Fuel shortages are blamed on “unscheduled maintenance at refineries.”

Military spending becomes “structural transformation of the economy.” Language is used as a shield. 2/

Fedorov: During the latest mass attack on Kyiv, Ukraine intercepted about 95% of Shaheds — around 600 were launched.

Against cruise missiles, the interception rate can also reach 80–90% when Ukraine has enough F-16s and enough missiles to cover the whole country.

1/ Fedorov: Ukraine is investing heavily in cheap missiles to prepare for winter and bad weather, when interceptor drones face limits.

During the main mass attack, about 75% of Shaheds were intercepted by interceptor drones.

2/

Putin spent 10 minutes naming streets in Donetsk villages in a state TV interview — and described an encirclement near Rubtsi that no reliable source confirms exists.

There is no river called Stary Oskol in that region. — Simon Shuster, The Atlantic.

1/ 81% of Russians want the war to end "as early as tomorrow."

Those who want to fight until victory dropped to 9% — the lowest ever recorded by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia across 10 rounds of polling since 2022.

2/

Zelenskyy: We are thankful to the American team for transfer of anti ballistic missiles, but for today it is too slow.

We don’t know what Putin will do. We are asking President Trump and his team: we don’t need too many words. You see what does it mean when the packages come? 1/ Zelenskyy: Europe, the United States and many other countries live from election to election. That is understandable. But please, the priority must be saving lives. 2/

Russians feel the war’s hardships as Ukraine pummels Crimea — WSJ.

For more than four years, Putin tried to keep most Russians away from the costs of war.

Ukrainian drones hit power and fuel sites. Gasoline sells for $25 a gallon on black market. 1/ Ukraine calls the campaign “long-range sanctions.”
The target is the peninsula Russia annexed in 2014 and presented as a showcase of Putin’s imperial project.
The effect is direct: fuel shortages, power cuts, transport disruption and a falling tourist season. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia designed this strike to cause maximum damage: ballistic missiles, waves of Shaheds and other drones, dozens of cruise missiles.

Ukraine shot down 48 missiles and 476 drones overnight, but not all. We need more Patriots and anti-ballistic systems.

1/ Zelenskyy: Air defense must be a key result of the NATO summit. Europe must have enough capacity to defend itself from every threat, including Russian ballistic missiles.

We have long discussed licenses for Patriot production with the U.S. administration.

2/

Kellogg: Putin just wants power. The Soviets left Afghanistan after losing 18,000 soldiers. Putin has lost 1.2 to 1.4 million.

Americans would never accept that. But he keeps going because he thinks he can occupy all of Ukraine. He is not winning.

1/ Kellogg: Europe’s security will no longer be built only around Germany, France, and the UK.

It will shift east — through Finland, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, and Romania. Ukraine will be the Sparta of Europe, with an army of 800,000. Nobody else has that.

2/

"Who could have imagined Colombians fighting North Koreans in Kursk region? Our Colombians beat them well enough."

Captain Hamlet Avagyan, an Armenian, commands a Ukrainian assault regiment built mostly of foreign fighters, UkrPravda. 1/ Captain Hamlet Avagyan leads the R.U.G. assault regiment under Khartiia, a Ukrainian National Guard unit.

Foreign fighters make up most of the unit. In August 2024, R.U.G. joined Ukraine's surprise push into Russia's Kursk region. 2/

Ukrainian soldiers rinsed their mouths with water from a fire extinguisher and ate rations they took off the Russians they killed to survive in the encirclement.

Russians poisoned them with gas, thinking these were elite forces. Ukrainians held their position for 109 days.

1/ Anton, one of the Ukrainian soldiers: My neck, arms and back started burning. I jumped out with my rifle and saw a drone. I started shooting, tears streaming.

The grenade was self-made. Chlorine-based powder inside. It smells of acid, eats through everything.

2/

Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Fedorov: Today, the Ukrainian army is the most prepared in Europe. Where else would you find troops able to destroy 30,000 to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month?

Putin has to feel the cost is too high to continue, Politico.

1/ Fedorov: If we have enough resources to launch a new cycle of war innovations before Russia adapts to the current one, we will get another six months.

We need the next level of aid to be able to finish the job. 2/

At a Kyiv prom, Yehor walked out alone onto the dance floor. He lifted his right palm into the empty space before him. And for three minutes, pretended his partner Masha was still there.

Russia killed her on May 14. — NYT.

1/ Masha Polska, 15, had planned the prom herself. She chose the restaurant, planned the menu, helped pick the waltz song. She was the best dancer in the group.

Russian missile killed her the night before her first rehearsal in the assembly hall.

2/

Petraeus: No western country is aggressively pursuing what needs to be pursued. A major German defense CEO belittled what the Ukrainians have done with drones.

Europeans will spend more on defense, but buy legacy platforms. Vested interests in buying what we've always bought. 1/ Petraeus: A senior army leader said they're giving 500 drones to a tank brigade. That is not revolutionary change.

Revolutionary change is you actually do away with part of the tank brigade and create entire unmanned forces that can do what we see in Ukraine so impressively. 2/