Russia knows it can’t create a second Ukrainian SSR. Its goal is the destruction of Ukraine — “Novorossiya,” LNR/DNR, “Malorossiya.”

Signs of genocide are clear, including deporting children, Ukrainian Institute of National Memory head Oleksandr Alfyorov for Ukrainska Pravda.1/ Alfyorov: “In Ukraine, Russia needs only two resources: history and children.”

Russia uses history as a weapon — through “Novorossiya,” “LNR,” “DNR,” “Malorossiya,” and the myth of a “fight against Nazism” to justify occupation and erase Ukrainian statehood.

2/

Russian schools now teach children that Winston Smith — the hero of Orwell’s 1984 — was a “radical” with “destructive behavior” — The Times.

In the novel, Smith resists a totalitarian state, questions propaganda, and hates the ruling Party.

In Tomsk, Russia frames it as a crime.

1/ 1984 was banned in the Soviet Union until 1988 and circulated underground among dissidents.

In 2022 it became the most downloaded fiction book in Russia.

Officials claimed readers loved it not as a warning about totalitarianism, but as a critique of “modern liberalism.”

2/

Russian Ambassador to the UK Kelin: We could fight in Ukraine like the US did in Iraq, crushing cities, but we don’t. This war is slow and ‘surgical,’ to preserve civilians.

[Russia killed more than 15,000 civilians since 2022, this is how they preserve civilians.]

1/ Kelin: Three rounds of peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul brought little result except prisoner exchanges.

Russia sticks to the Anchorage understandings with the US. Ukraine, despite a losing position, is trying to dictate its own terms.

2/

Yuliia Dvornychenko from Ukraine’s Donetsk region spent two years in Russian captivity. Her two sons waited the entire time.

Yuliia: I was tortured: electric shocks, stripped, beaten. They threatened to send my kids to an orphanage. I signed anything to stop it. — DW.

1/ Yuliia: People traveled from occupied areas to Ukraine-controlled territory to buy basics, collect pensions, get medicine. Everyone needed to get out; for some, just to breathe.

We’d go with the kids to see the difference between life under occupation and outside it.

1/

The EU may give Ukraine EU-level protections before full membership

The EU is weighing a peace-deal formula that grants Kyiv early access to EU membership rights and safeguards, locking in a time-bound path to full accession, possibly by 2027 — Bloomberg.

1/ One option would grant Ukraine up-front accession protections, legal, economic, and regulatory safeguards, plus immediate access to selected EU rights, before formal membership.

2/

Shot and bleeding in a dugout, Ukrainian soldier convinced his Russian captors to surrender.

Volodymyr Aleksandrov lay wounded in hand and pelvis as an FPV mine blocked the entrance and drones hunted above. “If I was going to die, I would take them with me” — Hromadske. 1/ Russian troops ambushed Aleksandrov and his partner while they collected food dropped by drone.

Russians fired from a house, wounded him, argued over killing him, then kept him alive to register a live prisoner for money. 2/

Russia gave its main security agency legal power to shut down internet and phone service nationwide. Like in Iran: cut the web when protests erupt.

If crowds fill Moscow’s streets, the switch is ready — United24.

1/ The State Duma passed the law on Jan. 27.

The UK Ministry of Defence says it lets the FSB order total communication blackouts for vaguely defined “security threats,” with no clear limits and no oversight.

2/

Kallas: We haven’t seen any concessions on the Russian side. We only have seen what Ukrainians are willing to concede to end this war.

Russia is the problem that has been attacking its neighbors. To prevent war from expanding, we should have concessions on the Russian side. 1/ Kallas: There will always be people in the West who will offer you something so that you walk away with more than you had.

The size of the Ukrainian army is not the problem. The size of the Russian army and military budget is a problem for all its neighbors. 2X

Beevor, British historian: We are seeing a fresh conflict developing, a second Cold war, with Putin and the rise of China and the threat from Xi.

It is an extension of the Cold War, but also a new era of geopolitics, a split between authoritarianism and democracy. 1/ Beevor: In second Cold War, geopolitics are changing so rapidly. Russian and Chinese leaders used to stick with agreements. We’re not seeing that anymore. We cannot trust Putin to stick to anything he says. It will be seen as one of the greatest self-inflicted disasters in history. 2/

Jean Akimana, Burundian POW: I thought I’d go to uni. I went to Russia to study. Russians made us sign some papers we didn’t understand.

After signing, a military vehicle took us to camp. We didn’t have anyone to help us in Russia. We didn’t know what we signed up for — U24.

1/ Akimana: I saw a Pakistani guy and asked him what did I sign. He said I signed up to be a soldier.

I tried to deny, but he said “If you are already in a military zone — accept it.”

2/

Russian soldier came to Ukraine as occupier in 2022. Now he evacuates Ukrainian soldiers under fire in Avdiivka and serves as a tank gunner in the Russian Volunteer Corps.

Russia still pays child support for his three kids back home — Ukrainian Witness. 1/ “Chornyi” was mobilized in 2022. Airborne troops. Father of three. Could have avoided service.

Сhornyi: "I went to war out of stupidity. To prove to someone that they were wrong. I was sure I could come home." He couldn't. 2/

A Polish general says Poland has a backup plan for a Russian invasion scenario if the US steps back.

Błazeusz: You always need to have the main plan and branch plans in case things go differently. Boots on the ground may shrink, but their critical capabilities stay in place. 1/ Błazeusz: Ukraine is only a milestone for Russia.

In the ultimatum sent to Western countries in December 2021, Ukraine was mentioned only twice.

They demanded NATO never expand again and that NATO forces withdraw from countries that joined after 1999. 2/

Kyiv School of Economics advocates another way to hit Russian oil revenues: completely blocking oil tankers from key sea routes and ports unless they have proper international P&I insurance — Brookings

This would cut Russia’s oil export tax revenues from the Baltic by 5.6–14% 1/ If a tanker is stopped, the pressure shifts to the country whose flag it sails under.

Russia registers its tankers in poor states and insures them there.

If the EU forces those states to enforce real insurance rules, former flag countries won’t give these ships insurance.

2/

Was Epstein really a Russian spy?

In 2017, after pressuring a Russian model for nude photos, he abruptly wrote, “My Russian ambassador friend… just died in New York.”

He meant Vitaly Churkin, Putin’s UN envoy — a close Epstein contact, Times. 1/ Churkin held coffee meetings with Epstein.

Sergei Belyakov, Russian deputy economy minister and FSB academy graduate, called Epstein a very good friend, sought multi-entry visas for him, and pitched him as a channel for US investment into Russia. 2/

Russia abducted Ukrainian journalist Yana Suvorova in occupied Melitopol when she was 18.

After a closed, staged trial, she was sentenced to 14 years for “terrorism” and “treason.” Her case is classified. She vanished from exchange lists, United24. 1/
Yana: “The cell is cold. Rats run around. The light is on constantly.”

Her boyfriend says her condition collapsed after transfer to Donetsk — held with girls who had attempted suicide. Psychological pressure was constant. 2/

The Davydenko family in Kyiv is escaping the cold together with their 7 pigs. Their apartment drops to -2°C, but leaving the city would feel like a gift to Putin, they say — Reuters. 1/ Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid left their 12th-floor apartment without electricity for 8 days and without heating for nearly 2 weeks.

Night temperatures fell to -20°C. Sleeping there became impossible. 2/

Germany broke up a network supplying Russia’s defense industry.

Police arrested 5 suspects accused of exporting sanctioned goods to Russian military firms. The network shipped €30M worth of goods since 2022 — Reuters. 1/ German prosecutors say the group used shell companies and fake end-users inside and outside the EU to hide shipments to 24 Russian defense firms.

Raids took place in multiple cities, assets were frozen, and 5 more suspects remain at large. 2/

Kyiv will get just four to six hours of electricity a day in February.

Russia launched the largest attack on Ukraine's power grid since the start of the year during severe cold. Two key substations hit, while temperature was -13 degrees — New York Post. 1/ Stanislav Ihnatiev, head of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association: Damage to substations of this class is a strategic blow to the entire energy system.

These facilities ensure the distribution of large amounts of power on a national scale. 2/

Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the 3rd Army Corps: As Trump said, to talk about peace you need to have cards.

For Russia, peace starts only when advancing becomes impossible or too costly.

They hope spring and “infiltration tactics” will save them. I don’t think it will.

1/ Biletskyi: For most fighters who’ve been at war for years, it stops being pure emotion.

At first it’s rage, shock, survival. Over time, it becomes work.

War turns into a system, a profession — otherwise neither soldiers nor officers last.

2/

Russia is trying to sell 48 Ka-52 attack helicopters to China, even on unfavorable terms, simply to preserve access to the Chinese market.

Leaked documents show how far Moscow is willing to go to keep Beijing close — United24. 1/ After sanctions and battlefield losses in Ukraine, Russia’s defense industry is under strain.

Export revenues are shrinking, production chains are disrupted, and Moscow is running out of alternatives beyond China. 2/

What if Russia loses in Ukraine?

By Clausewitz’s definition, Russia has already failed on all three pillars of war: political goals (what the Kremlin sought to achieve), military (how its army actually performed), and public support — United24. 1/ Russia set maximalist political goals in 2022: subjugate Ukraine, replace its government, and force Kyiv back into Moscow’s sphere of control.

After full-scale war, none of these goals have been achieved. Ukraine remains sovereign, mobilized, and politically unified. 2/