Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pitt...
Jul 25 8 tweets 2 min read
Russia will fund children conceived from the very soldiers it already sent to die in Ukraine.

The State Duma passed a bill giving their widows fully state-funded IVF and artificial insemination, drawn from the biomaterial these men banked before they deployed — United24. 1/ Image A widow can claim the state benefit for five years after her husband dies, and she keeps it only if she does not remarry.

She also needs a notarized consent form for the storage and use of his biomaterial, one the soldier had to sign in person while he was still alive. 2/
Jul 25 11 tweets 3 min read
Politico: The lesson from Ukraine is that drones do not replace armies.

Drones expose weak systems when they plug into a real force. If Europe turns drone success into an excuse to dodge ships, air defense and missiles, Russia benefits. 1/ Image Ukraine’s drone record is why the hype exists. Kyiv has hit Russian shadow vessels, refineries, Baltic oil terminals, military sites in Crimea and even an oil refinery in Siberia. 2/
Jul 25 5 tweets 2 min read
Italy's Defence Minister Crosetto asked Fedorov to be his advisor.

He called Fedorov the day after his dismissal: "When do you want to come to Rome and work with me as an adviser?"

Fedorov was "moved" and saw it as "a demonstration of esteem and friendship." — Reuters.

1/ Image Crosetto: Fedorov completely rewrote the rules of the game on the battlefield.

Helping Ukraine first resist Russia's invasion, then regain the initiative through new technologies. Fedorov's dismissal sparked rare wartime protests in Ukraine.

2/
Jul 24 7 tweets 2 min read
Poland’s remaining MiG-29s now have another NATO suitor. Warsaw: Ukraine still comes first.

MiG-29s are Soviet-designed fighter jets Ukrainian pilots and maintenance teams already know, United24. 1/ Image Zalewski [Polish deputy DM]: “We received an offer from one of our NATO allies.”

He refused to name the country.

Defense Express: Bulgaria looks like the most plausible candidate because it already operates Soviet-designed aircraft. 2/
Jul 24 6 tweets 2 min read
Russia is choking Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor, the sea route that keeps Ukrainian grain moving to world markets.

On Wednesday, for the first time since the corridor opened in 2023, zero ships entered Ukraine’s 3 Odesa ports, Politico. 1/ Image Sybiha [Ukraine’s FM]: “Russia is holding global food security hostage.”

At peak harvest, he called the shutdown deliberate economic and humanitarian terror that could mean higher prices and hunger for families in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. 2/
Jul 24 5 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine will make Patriot interceptor missiles with Raytheon, the US producer of the Patriot system.

Patriots are crucial for stopping Russian ballistic and aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities, United24. 1/ Image Zelenskyy: “Ukraine will jointly produce one of the most important air defense assets — interceptors for Patriots — together with Raytheon.”

The talks followed earlier discussions with Trump in Ankara and focused on non-offensive military hardware. 2/
Jul 24 6 tweets 3 min read
Browder: Ukraine has created a drone kill zone along the front.

Anyone who enters it can be targeted. One operator can control 100 drones searching for heat and killing anyone inside the zone. 1/ Browder: Putin can draft more men and send them to the front, where they will be killed.

Russia has ten times the personnel and resources, but Ukrainian strikes keep degrading its economy and reducing the resources Putin can use to continue the war. 2/
Jul 24 6 tweets 3 min read
Zelenskyy: The Soviet Union was the most dangerous enemy for the United States, not only for your democracy or way of life, but for 70 years.

Putin’s global idea is to take everything back: the Soviet Union, former Soviet republics, and Europe too.

1/ Zelenskyy: If Russia becomes the Soviet Union again, this becomes a global war. Then you get China and a restored Soviet empire with the biggest army in the world.

They would be bigger than the United States, and that would be dangerous for America.

2/
Jul 24 5 tweets 2 min read
Keane: Ukraine can put 10,000 drones in the air in a single day.

The entire US Army does not have 10,000 drones. Ukraine’s defense industry gets new technology into soldiers’ hands at a speed that is nothing short of remarkable. 1/ Keane: Ukraine will manufacture 8 million drones this year — aerial drones and unmanned ground vehicles.

Ukrainian forces pushed Russians off a position defended by troops with no humans in the fight. It was the first time this had happened in warfare. 2/
Jul 24 11 tweets 3 min read
More than 70% of Crimea's 2.5 million residents have lost power, many now going days with no electricity or running water.

Cheap Ukrainian drones did in one month what Russia swore for 12 years could never happen, handing Kyiv leverage over any peace talks — The Guardian. 1/ Image Marina runs a guesthouse in Yevpatoria. First the Russian tourists cancelled, then petrol ran short, now power and water vanish for much of the day.

Marina: For 12 years they told us Crimea was 100% protected. Within a month we've been thrown back into the Stone Age. 2/
Jul 24 7 tweets 3 min read
Musk: Saying Russia should completely withdraw is not realistic. We need to be pragmatic. Another three years of dying at the front would be terrible.

I hope there is a peace deal soon. The border has barely moved for two or three years, while people die every day.

1/ Musk: We never sold Starlink to Russians. They got units through Ukraine, smuggled them into occupied eastern Ukraine, and used them for attacks.

To stop it, we worked with Ukraine on a whitelist of approved terminals. The downside: some innocent users lost access too.

2/
Jul 24 4 tweets 2 min read
Kasparov: A staged border incident in Belarus targeting Poland or Lithuania isn't just plausible, it's likely.

Putin needs a new narrative given the lack of good news from the front. Nobody knows if NATO states would fire back, and that uncertainty raises the risk. 1/ Kasparov: I suspect Putin is curious to test whether a heavy drone and missile barrage on a European capital would trigger panic.

Not the Balts or Poles, I think — further west, where corrupt politicians already talk about normalizing relations with Moscow. 2X
Jul 24 4 tweets 2 min read
Kasparov: Putin called the Soviet collapse the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century in a 2005 speech.

Had he broken Ukraine's defenses in 2022, he wouldn't have stopped there. The real goal was rolling NATO back to its 1997 borders, pushing Eastern Europe out. 1/ Kasparov: What looks like bravado is really an understanding of an obvious truth: anything short of victory ends Putin and his regime.

War has become how Russia is governed — it's penetrated every layer of society, from kindergartens to the top of government. 2X
Jul 23 11 tweets 3 min read
WSJ: Russia is bombing Odesa’s grain silos, port infrastructure, commercial ships, homes and energy sites. Life still goes on.

Resorts open, freight moves, cadets graduate, engineers repair substations, and the city keeps refusing to live on Moscow’s terms. 1/ Image Odesa keeps Ukraine connected to the world. The city sends billions of dollars in agricultural exports through the Black Sea and the Danube, even after years of Russian attempts to cut that route. 2/
Jul 23 8 tweets 3 min read
Kellogg: To gain leverage, I would take Kharg Island and Larak Island, the Gulf’s command-and-control center.

Then the president owns something Iran no longer has. We can give it back at the end of the war, or keep it forever.

1/ Kellogg: If you let a weaker team hang around into the ninth inning or fourth quarter, it gets more dangerous.

You should have closed them out early. That is where we are now with Iran. I think Trump will close it out, and he should.

2/
Jul 23 5 tweets 2 min read
Browder: Trump screamed bloody murder about sending Ukraine military aid in similar dollar amounts, asking why spend money in a faraway place.

The same argument now applies to his own Iran war, and he's backed himself into a corner. 1/ Browder: Most pro-Putin voices in American media aren't doing it out of ideology — it's money.

The DOJ prosecuted people paid by Russia to push Russian talking points on podcasts before the 2024 election. I'd love to see Tucker Carlson spend a day in Ukraine's trenches. 2/
Jul 23 4 tweets 2 min read
Browder: Russia has been providing Iran with targeted intelligence to track US troops — we've known this for a long time.

The Trump administration is contorting itself trying not to blame Russia, and honestly, that's pretty horrifying. 1/ Browder: A recent Economist/YouGov poll found a majority of Americans in every party support military aid for Ukraine and see Putin as a very bad actor.

Mollycoddling Russia the way this administration is doing just isn't in America's national interest. 2X
Jul 23 9 tweets 4 min read
Ukraine’s new Commander-in-Chief Drapatyi in 2023: Ukraine is inconvenient for Russia’s history, because without Ukraine there is no Russia or empire.

That is why they still try to control us. Ukraine did not appear in 1991; it has centuries of culture, traditions and army.

1/ Drapatyi: In 7th or 8th grade, I dreamed of becoming a tank officer. After school, I entered the Kharkiv Tank Troops Institute.

That is how my military path began. My rule in life is simple: whatever I do, I do it well and responsibly, so I have nothing to be ashamed of.

2/
Jul 23 6 tweets 3 min read
Kuleba: Once we ran low on Patriot interceptors and started taking cover for every alert instead of just some, that itself became a signal.

To partners, that we needed help, and to Russians, who already know our air-defense situation through their own intelligence anyway. 1/ Kuleba: My position on our strikes on Russian oil logistics is simple: for every warehouse Russia destroys in Ukraine, two should burn in Russia.

Call it whatever you want morally. If the UN wants us shot at while we sit and stay silent, I have no use for the UN. 2/
Jul 23 6 tweets 3 min read
Volker: Crimea is everything to Putin — the jewel in his restoration of the Russian empire. If he fails to hold it, he's failed as the new Tsar.

Russia, an energy-rich country, is now rationing gasoline for consumers and, I'd guess, for its military too. 1/ Volker: Putin is going after people once assumed untouchable, like his old St. Petersburg associate Ilya Traber, and that's a signal to everyone else: know your place.

If even Traber is vulnerable, anybody is. 2/
Jul 23 4 tweets 2 min read
Applebaum: Trump has said, on the record, that if Europe is under attack, the US will never come to help.

That's a direct break from the postwar American commitment to European security. 1/ Applebaum: Trump's early negotiations with Russia were counterproductive — they signaled Americans might pressure Ukraine to surrender territory.

Putin has never seriously entertained a ceasefire. This war ends only once Russia understands it cannot win. 2X