Slovakia elects an Orban-like populist with pro-Russian views Robert Fico. But his path to prime minister will demand compromises. Will he give up his anti-West rhetoric for power? Yes, unless he can make amends with his former party friends turned enemies. 1/ Robert Fico is a character. His campaign statements included Russian propaganda falsehoods like “the war in Ukraine didn’t start a year ago, it started in 2014, when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started murdering Russian citizens in the Donbas and Luhansk” 2/

Lavrov lies: Russia is not striking at civilian infrastructure. There are many confirmations of this. All damage done to civilian infrastructure in is due to criminal actions of #Kievregime which purposefully deploys heavy weapons and air defence in residential neighbourhoods1/ Every sentence is a lie.

Here is a video I took in Dnipro recently. This is a residential building. No military there. Attacks come without warning, it takes a missile 2-3 mins to reach Dnipro 2/

There is a letter leaked on the conditions for the US help to Ukraine

It is well-meant, in theory, if one ignores the war

Conditions aim to bolster Ukraine's resilience and EU integration capacity. But the list is a kitchen sink and isn’t realistic. Decide for yourself 1/ 1. By A pril 1, 2024 for Ukraine to adopt procedures on trading transparency in wholesale energy markets

2. Reform goals for state firms' supervisory boards, including Ukrenergo, Naftogaz, Energoatom, GTSO. Align with OECD corporate governance standards 2/

The Kyiv School of Economics’s research is back on the FT front page:

KSE has estimated that the increase in crude prices since July, combined with the Russia’s success in reducing the discount on its oil, mean that its oil revenues this year are likely to be at least $15bn 1/ higher than they otherwise would have been

Ben Hilgenstock @ben_hilgenstock an economist at KSE said: “Given these shifts in how Russia ships its oil, it may be very difficult to meaningfully the price cap in the future. And it makes it even more regrettable that we 2/

There are signs of de-escalation between Poland and Ukraine on the grain issue. Polish president Duda shifts the narratives: there are special grain corridors for transit of the Ukrainian grain, the EU commission was wrong not to extend their decision 1/ Duda now emphasizes Poland's efforts to support Ukraine in exporting grain to needy countries, explicitly deflecting blame onto the EU for not extending the embargo 2/

Zelensky visits Canada, speaks tot eh Canadian parliament, gets several standing ovations, and is promised military support in the amount of USD$482 mln.

Also Canada imposed new sanctions on multiple Russian invidious and entities, among the the Higher School of Economics 1/ Sanctioning universities and think tanks is a new development. They are involved in the Russian propaganda effort and Canada shows that countries can and should move against them. 2/

Breaking: Russian social media report a successful and devastating attack on the Russian Black Sea FleetHeadquarters in Sevastopol

What is known? 1/ Reputable Ukrainian social and legacy media sources also report the story. 2/

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1705171037988544940

Zelensky wants peace. Here’s his peace formula he covered at the UN Security Council. His conditions

Nuclear safety

Food security

Energy security

Prisoners release

Territorial integrity

Troop withdrawal

Justice

Environment

Deescalarion

Confirmation

In detail: 1/ 1. Radiation & Nuclear Safety: Russia's nuclear blackmail must end. Immediate withdrawal from Ukrainian nuclear plant Zaporizhzhia NPP is non-negotiable 2/

Tonight Russia launched 43 missiles at once in the first blackout attack on Ukraine. Unsuccessfully. Ukraine intercepted 36 or 84% of them.

The electricity grid was shortly destabilized, even in Kyiv, but the power companies brought it back only almost immediately 1/ Nonetheless, some people remained without electricity for hours and the repairs are ongoing.

Russia hasn’t targeted electricity infrastructure for over 6 months, and never on this scale.

The air defense didn’t get overwhelmed and worked impressively well. 2/

Poland is the strongest supporter of Ukraine. But recently there has been a rift over the grain

Last week, Poland defied the EU and continued the ban on imports of the grain from Ukraine.

Ukraine responded by complaining to WTO 1/ President Zelensky mentioned the issue at the UN General Assembly yesterday, although he didn’t name specific countries

President Duda responded by comparing Ukraine to a person who is drowning and can hurt others in the process. 2/

Zelensky speech at the UN in short

1. The most important message was directed to Global South nations with war experience. Zelensky said that we have a genuine chance to end this aggression on the terms of the country attacked and fully reclaim its land and sovereignty. 1/ 2. He cautioned against backroom deals with Russia. Zelensky suggested asking Prigozhin about what happens when you rely on Putin's promises

3.Zelensky softly criticized the UN for being unable to maintains security in the world 2/

Ukraine dismissed 6 out of 7 deputy defense ministers yesterday in major wartime leadership shakeup.

This is actually normal. In 2019 I was appointed minister of economy and fired all 8 deputy ministers and 2 state secretaries, completely replacing ministry leadership. Why? 1/ This is done when you need to implement major changes that require a mindset shift. In the govt, there is inertia and people naturally gravitate to the status quo. So, when a transformation is needed, you must cut off the head of the beast, even if people are pretty good 2/

Russia's found a workaround for Western oil sanctions, says a new study from KSE Institute. But there is a way to make those sanctions stick and reel Russia back into compliance.

The study is led by Benjamin Hilgenstock @ben_hilgenstock, a KSE senior economist 1/ Ben goes through troves of data, public and not, and connects the dots between macroeconomic state of the Russian economy, sanctions, and specific mechanisms used by Russia to bypass sanctions.

So, what’s the data? 2/

An incremental victory for Ukraine that shows that Russia can be isolated economically, financially, and logistically.

Poland follows Finland and Baltic countries and ban Russian cars from entering. Now, there are lines at the border as Russians are unwilling to turn back 1/ The ban was announced by Poland Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński and is set to go into effect at midnight. It follows new EU guidelines clarifying that Russian-registered cars should not enter the bloc, even temporarily. 1/

What do people eat in the Ukrainian military?

I visited a brigade last week to learn about officers’ training. But I can’t talk about that

I was most fascinated by cooking. Imagine you have to feed 1000 people 3 times every day in the woods w/o electricity and fridges 1/ So, what do people eat? When I visited the brigade I sat down with the commanders for lunch.

There was a sausage soup, cooked chicken and potatoes, and marinated veggies - carrots, seaweed, and onion. They were surprising tasty. There was also a typical Ukrainian drink - kompot

This is Yegor Stadnyi. He is the brain and engine behind the explosive growth of KSE University.

Under his leadership, our admission numbers have increased 350% this year, while application numbers have increased 600%

He did thee things: 1/ Yegor restructured all education programs at KSE to reflect the changes in the society, workplace, students aspirations imposed by the war. He also introduced 8 new programs, expanding programming of the Kyiv School of Economics from economics and CS to math, law, psychology 2/

As of August 1, Russia illegally deported 5,754 Ukrainian children. This is the officially documented number by Ukrainian authorities. The reality is likely to be much worse.

Russia also works on simplified adoption of Ukrainians 1/ In Krasnodar ralone, over 1,000 children illegally taken from occupied Mariupol were put up for "adoption." 2/

Another successful attack on Russian Black fleet: reports @tweetsNV

Frankly, I am starting to lose track…

This time Ukraine's SBU used experimental naval drone "Sea Tadpole" to strike Russian missile ship Samum near Sevastopol 1/ Drone hit rear right section, caused significant damage. Samum lost propulsion. Towed for repairs with stern tilt & right list. 2/

Ukraine confirms it struck Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don & warship Minsk in Sevastopol using British missiles. Rare admission of responsibility 1/ Used Storm Shadow cruise missiles gifted by UK. First time missiles used against a submarine target. 2/

Ukraine conducted a major special operation near occupied Yevpatoria in Crimea last night. This is different from the attack on the ships in Sevastopol. Ukraine's security service SBU says its drones first struck Russian air defense radars and antennas. 1/ After disabling their radar capabilities, Ukraine's navy fired two Neptune cruise missiles at the Russian S-300/400 Triumph air defense systems worth $1.2 billion. Russian sources confirm the strikes rendered the systems inoperable. 2/

Ukrainian mathematician Maryna Viazovska has won the Fields Medal, a Nobel Prize for mathematics. She is the second woman ever to receive the medal. Maryna solved a 400-year-old sphere packing problem

Now she founded a new int'l mathematics research center in Kyiv

1/ The objective of the center is to revive mathematical science in Ukraine. The effort is led by Maryna Vyazovska and Maryna Vlasenko, and other Ukrainian mathematicians with prominent international standing. 2/