Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either.

What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns.

1/ Stubb: Ukraine's long-range strikes took down 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.

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Trump turned NATO from a security guarantee into a paid service. Allies buy American weapons, and in return the US keeps protecting them.

They committed nearly $120B in the past year and spent half of it on US-made arms — Politico. 1/ Trump demanded that allies raise defense spending from 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent, or risk losing US protection altogether.

He has often threatened to quit the alliance if they fall short. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tied higher spending to faster US arms sales. 2/

Greek shipping companies made $4B moving Russian oil while G7 states tried to cut the Kremlin’s energy cash.

The trade stayed legal under the price cap. The money kept flowing anyway, — FT. 1/ Dynacom Tankers made the most — $915M from Russian crude since July 2023.

Olympic Shipping, part of the Onassis Group — $404M.
Stealth Maritime and Polembros each made more than $200M. 2/

Europe is preparing for the once-unthinkable — defending the continent against Russia with little or no US help.

NATO's plans from a year ago assumed the US would carry nearly 40% of the warfighting burden. This share now almost certain to shrink after year of lost trust in Trump, — FT. 1/ The shift is driven by a string of shocks.
Trump's threat to take Greenland by force, cancelled US troop deployments, a national security strategy hostile to Europe, and recriminations over the lack of European support for his war in Iran. 2/

EU’s 21st sanctions package could hit 90 more Russian banks, pushing banned lenders past 100 — over half of Russia’s internationally connected financial institutions.

A confidential European report warns of an explosive banking crisis, United24. 1/ Russia’s Economy Ministry cut GDP growth forecasts: 2026 to 0.4% from 1.3%, and 2027 to 1.4% from 2.8%.
The report says 10% of corporate loans look questionable; in 2025, bad retail loans at several large banks hit 15%. 2/

Rutte: Russia's war machine is not unstoppable.

Right now, Ukraine is changing the dynamics on the battlefield, thanks to the bravery, the dedication, and ingenuity of its armed forces — United24. 1/ Rutte spoke on July 6 at a press conference in Ankara, ahead of the 2026 summit and its latest support for Kyiv.
He tied Ukraine's front-line progress to its soldiers, naming their courage, commitment, and inventiveness as the qualities driving the shift against Moscow. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia believed no one could reach its strategic rear — its factories, equipment, everything the war depends on.

We reached them. Ukraine in NATO is extraordinary defensive capability. The threat stays next door for a long time. We stay ready.

1/ Zelenskyy: War has changed as fundamentally as when machine guns decided WWI battles, or when tanks reshaped WWII.

Today drones and long-distance warfare represent that same revolutionary shift.

2/

Head of Zelenskyy’s Office Budanov: Russia used to plan an attack on Europe only after finishing Ukraine.

Now their plans are adjusting — they're ready for both simultaneously. All documents pointed to combat readiness by early 2027. That's not far away.

1/ Budanov: Russia’s Duma elections in September — do they matter? Look at 2024.

People fled Belgorod in columns as the operation hit the city. Belgorod recorded Russia’s highest voter turnout. They’ll draw whatever results they need.

2X

Budanov: Russians believe in "3+2": Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk plus the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia

Recognition of full Russian sovereignty over all of it. That's what they call the "spirit of Anchorage" and apparently Americans read something into that term too.1/ Budanov: We've gone too far for legislative compromises to matter. You think making Russian the second state language gets Crimea back?

No. Everything gets decided on the battlefield and in offices — together, as a package.

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Head of Zelenskyy’s Office Budanov: If Russia knew this war would last longer than their beloved Great Patriotic War, they wouldn't have started it.

Not would they have. No. People I've encountered on the Russian side say the same.

1/ Budanov: Ukrainian production finally hit serious scale — that increased intensity, intensity produced results.

The goal: exhaust and destroy enemy capabilities. Right now we're destroying their logistics.

2/

A Ukrainian crew of six fighters destroyed about 20 Russian radars over Bryansk and opened a corridor into Russia's rear.

Blinding that air defense first is what lets Ukraine's deep-strike drones reach the refineries and oil ports deep inside Russia — Oboronka. 1/ The frontline holds Russia's densest air defense and jamming. Russia downs most Ukrainian deep-strike drones at the border, before they reach targets in its rear.

So the 1st SBS Center flipped the sequence and cleared that wall first, before the long-range drones fly. 2/

Ukraine cannot keep its Soviet Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters flying long term, because most parts come from Russia.

Army Aviation will switch to the US UH-60 Black Hawk. Its commander, Brigadier General Pavlo Bardakov, said several projects are already underway — United24. 1/ Bardakov: New equipment for Army Aviation is inevitable — the entire helicopter fleet is tied to spare parts and components, most produced in Russia.

He said shortages are not expected in the next year or two, but Ukraine must move to a new platform over the medium term. 2/

Trump’s Balkan policy is creating a “power vacuum.”

NATO plans to cut KFOR in Kosovo from 4,700 troops to 3,500–3,000 next year, while US-European disputes over Bosnia’s international oversight deepen, The Insider. 1/ The US has 590 soldiers in Kosovo, the second-largest contingent after Italy’s 984.

Its role remains strategic because of NATO command leadership, operational capabilities and Camp Bondsteel, one of NATO’s largest bases in Europe. 2/

Zelenskyy: It is absurd that modern production has still not been scaled up to the level actually required to protect people from ballistic terror.

Ukraine has the know-how to produce such weapons, Reuters. 1/ Zelenskyy: If Ukraine received US licenses to manufacture Patriot systems, our production would be sufficient not only to defend Ukraine, but also to assist partners who need them. 2X

I told CNN Ukraine needs U.S. and European money and weapons commitments beyond 2027.

If Ukraine has that support, Russia knows the war will end. The more support Ukraine gets, the faster the war will be over.

1/ Me: Russia keeps sending more drones and missiles. Ukraine now intercepts most drones and cruise missiles, but not ballistic missiles.

That is the gap. We need Patriots and ballistic interceptors. Russia cannot move much on the front, so it doubles down on bombing civilians. 2/

"I slowly looked to the side and saw my legs. One leg was bent like the letter G. Hysteria started.

You can't move, no help coming, and you can do nothing." — Volodymyr Prostokishin, 23, lost both legs in Bakhmut.

Ukrainska Pravda writes his story.

1/ He was evacuating a 100-kilogram wounded soldier across an open minefield. A 120mm mortar hit. Two legs gone. Right arm shattered. Shrapnel entered his body and exited in spirals.

His comrade Grusha, who he was saving, died. It was two days before Volodymyr's 24th birthday.

2/

"Russians call it games. They put a bag over your head, pour water on your face until you almost drown.

They stick needles under your fingernails and apply electric shocks to your ears, your testicles, your fingers." — Yevhenii Malik, Mariupol defender — Kronen Zeitung.

1/ Malik on daily beatings: "In the morning they beat the whole barracks — just to say hello." Ten men in a 20-square-meter cell, standing from 6 AM to 10 PM.

No walking, sitting, talking, looking out the window, or smiling. Toilet and water only on command.

2/

Russia shifted air defense systems to Moscow from elsewhere in the country. Ukraine still penetrated them — The Atlantic, Phillips Payson O’Brien.

By revealing the limits of Putin's power, Ukraine has to be making his allies and flatterers very nervous.

1/ Ukraine struck the Dubna Space Communications Center twice in one week. Russia uses it to collect intelligence and coordinate army units in occupied Ukraine.

Zelenskyy: "Relevant actions are also being prepared against other similar enemy facilities."

2/

After 2022, NATO drilled scenarios that still assumed technological superiority and uninterrupted supply chains. In Ukraine, soldiers improvised with software updated overnight.

NATO is not prepared for the battlefield of the future. — Myroslava Gongadze, Ukrainska Pravda.

1/ For decades, NATO exported military knowledge to its partners. Today, Ukraine exports combat experience in drone warfare, electronic warfare, and battlefield adaptation back to NATO.

Integrating Ukraine is a strategic necessity.

2/

Foreman: Putin is becoming the Robert Mugabe of Russia. Each year he grows older, more detached from the man he used to be and more surrounded by aging sycophants.

He'll die in harness. He's driving Russia into the ground with no plan. When he goes, Russia will face crisis. 1/ Foreman: The Kursk submarine disaster was a huge political lesson for Putin.

He learned never to expose himself that way again. Everything since then has been stage-managed. 2/

Foreman: Putin wasn't a major figure in the KGB. He was a functionary in a minor town in East Germany.

The head of the KGB residency there didn't even know who he was. He was spying on East Germans, not the West. 1/ Foreman: The judo analogy fits Putin better than the idea that he is a grand strategist playing multidimensional chess.

He is reactive. He sees opportunities and takes them rather than following some master plan. 2/