Rutte for ARTE: Russia is the next threat and EU is already in danger

Russia spends around 40% of state budget on defense and about 10% of national income on military. It has developed missiles capable of reaching the EU within 5–10 minutes

There is no “safe” Europe anymore 1/ Rutte: Peace is hard to predict because Russia is unpredictable

Security guarantees must ensure that after any peace deal or long-term ceasefire, Ukraine stays strong and Russia cannot attack again

If Russia gains control over Ukraine even 5% defense spending won’t be enough 2/

Trump should call Putin’s bluff now. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Henriques write in TIME arguing that Trump is overestimating Putin - his ability to wage war, his economic stability, and the “cards he holds.” 1/ Henry Kissinger once wrote: “A bluff taken seriously is more useful than a serious threat interpreted as a bluff.” This insight fits Russia today. Putin projects strength, but the fundamentals behind that image are eroding fast. 2/

“I helped. I set up the position, dug, handed ammunition. I wanted to live.

Russians wouldn’t sort out who’s theirs and who’s not. There’s an order not to take prisoners” — Danylo, Russian POW, who stayed in Ukrainian trench for almost two months. 1/ Danylo: I was captured while moving to a position. My partner was with me. He ran for cover. While he was running, two bursts of automatic fire went off. My partner was dead.

Then one of Ukrainian soldiers ran out. I raised my hands, threw away my rifle and surrendered. 2/

A Russian defence factory boss set himself on fire on Red Square

After the invasion the state flooded him with orders. Deadlines impossible, output jumped in ten times — Reuters

Officials quoted Stalin: fail and you’re a criminal. That’s how Russia forces “production growth” 1/ Vladimir Arsenyev ran a small Moscow firm making electronics for tank crew communications.

Before the war: about 5,000 units a year

After the invasion: contracts for over 50,000

This is how Russian war economy works: refusal banned, failure criminalised. Contract is a trap. 2/

John Bolton: The West is losing Ukraine without losing a single battle.

EU paralysis and Trump’s diplomacy are shifting the war in Moscow’s favor — without Russia changing its goals. Ukrainian sovereignty and NATO unity are now at stake, he writes for WP. 1/ EU summit failed to agree on using €210bn in frozen Russian state assets as collateral for a reparations loan to Ukraine.

Belgium, backed quietly by others, blocked the plan over legal and financial risks. 2/

“The best thing Russians can do against Russia’s dictatorship is to fight on Ukraine’s side,” says Pyotr Ruzavin, a Russian journalist who joined Ukraine’s military in 2024. — Suspilne 1/ Ruzavin serves in Khartiia, a National Guard unit, working in UAV operations. He was wounded during service, recovered, and returned to his unit within a month. 2/

Maksym, Ukrainian soldier of the 22nd brigade, spent 33 days in the gray zone with a tourniquet on his wounded leg.

He was saved by an unmanned ground vehicle.

Six UGVs sent before were destroyed by Russians on the approach — CNN. 1/ He spent three hours in total darkness inside a steel capsule. FPV drone shredded the hull. Then UGV ran over a mine. The front left wheel was torn off, but it kept moving on three. Maksym is alive.
Now he’s in a hospital. His leg was amputated, but he survived. 2/

Sometimes I forgot my mother’s name.

They forced us to sing up to 160 songs a day. In +40°C heat or –20°C cold. Every morning they played the Russian anthem.

They wanted to destroy me physically — Rasti, a Ukrainian POW returned after 2.5 years of torture in Russia. 1/ In late 2022, in the early stages of the war, Russians advanced from Crimea, the Donbas, and from the sea toward Mariupol

Rasti: We were surrounded in a week. Most of us understood that this was probably the last moment — the nearest friendly forces were 120 kilometers away. 2/

Fiona Hill: What we're trying to do now is blunt Putin's ability to keep on devastating everything. He's done incalculable damage to the fabric of Russian society, its demography, its economy.

His whole economy, society and politics revolve around having this war go on. 1/ Hill: Capitulating, Ukraine giving Putin what he has got now isn't sufficient to put end to this. Putin's not going to demilitarize or change the course of the Russian economy. He's created enemies out of most of Europe. It's scared US allies and shown how ruthless war is. 2X

Aiden Aslin, British POW on Russian captivity: Russian said "I am your death". He asked "do you want a beautiful death or a quick death? I wanted a quick death.

He said "no, you're going to have a beautiful death". I was fully expecting to be murdered at that point. 1/ Aslin: I remember they came for three of the guys that were in the cell with me. They put bags on their head, and then the door closed. You hear the guards shouting, laying on the floor. Then you hear them get beat. While they're crawling, you can hear them being beat. 2/

US and Israel linked nonprofits raised $600k-$700k per Ukrainian child with cancer and delivered $1,200-$1,700 to the families.

The Kyiv Independent traced the money, the contracts, the ads, and the payouts behind these campaigns. 1/ The campaigns run mostly from the United States, use Israeli fundraising platforms, and keep operators anonymous.

They target donors worldwide with ads in English, German, French, Bulgarian, and more — while blocking access from Ukrainian IPs. 2/

Zelenskyy: The Americans have proposed a direct negotiation in the Ukraine-US-Russia format, and possibly Europe.

Today there is no peace deal, and there cannot be one until the war is stopped. Ukraine’s MFA is working on creating the infrastructure for elections abroad. 1/ Zelenskyy: There is no peace agreement today. And there may not be one.

A peace agreement will exist only when it is not just on paper, but when it is signed by leaders and when the war has stopped. That is what constitutes an agreement — unlike the Budapest Memorandum. 2/

Rubio: I won’t discuss deal details in public. No peace is possible unless Ukraine agrees and unless Russia agrees.

Ukraine is a combatant. If it says no, there is no peace. The U.S. will not force a deal on anyone.

1/ Rubio: We’re trying to define what Ukraine can live with and what Russia can live with, then push those positions closer.

Wars end by surrender or negotiation. We don’t see surrender from either side, so only a negotiated settlement can end this war.

2/

Dmitri Kozak, ex Putin aide, refused the president's orders on day two of the Ukraine invasion, insisting he didn't know Russia's goals.

He told Putin he was ready to be arrested or shot, — NYT. 1/ Days before the invasion, Kozak warned Putin at a Security Council meeting: Ukrainians will resist, sanctions will be severe, Russia's position will suffer.

He drafted a memo predicting Sweden and Finland would join NATO, which came true. 2/

An 18-year-old from occupied Crimea was about to be drafted into the Russian army. Instead, he escaped more than 3,000 kilometers and reached Kyiv.

This is the story of Artem, who chose flight over serving the state that occupied his home. — Suspilne 1/ Artem was born in Zaporizhzhia. At age five, his family moved to Sevastopol. In 2014, Russia occupied Crimea. From that moment on, his life unfolded inside a closed, repressive system that punished dissent and offered young people no real choices. 2/

Leva, Ukrainian marine infantry just came back after a concussion.

Leva: I walked onto the position. Snow still lay there. Blood stains showed through it.

Crimson drops spread on the white slope. A drone buzzed “bzzzz”. I stared at those stains, and it burned me, reports UP. 1/ Leva: The dugout smelled of urine, smoke, and dust. A Russian drone had just killed a buddy there. I came back from a concussion.

My eardrums did not heal. Sleep broke. Paranoia hit. The mortar kept landing closer and closer. 2/

The US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund is fully operational and poised to start its first investments in 2026.

Development Finance Corporation activated a fund of this size and complexity in less than a year, advancing US-Ukraine shared national interests, — DFC.

1/ The Fund's board reached final consensus on investment policies, fund policies, and investment strategy. Alvarez & Marsal was announced as Fund Advisor in November. The board includes DFC General Counsel and Head of Investments.

2/

China and Russia aim to make the US an isolated, second-tier state.

Trump's first term declared great-power competition.

His second term now obscures that reality, pursuing policies that give adversaries what they want, — Bloomberg. 1/ Putin's war targets the Western community that reduced Russia after the Cold War.

He wages hybrid warfare against US allies: drone incursions, sabotage, attacks on US water systems and meat-packing plants.
2/

Bolton: If Trump is not really committed to Article 5, how committed is he to Article 5-like guarantees?

Zelenskyy needs to remember: "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

If you want to take a guarantee from Trump, good luck is all I can say. 1/ Bolton: I've seen reported there's no commitment by the United States to put American troops in Ukraine. American troops are the tripwire.

No American troops in Ukraine means it's a long way from the east coast to Ukraine. 2/

Putin: We see signals from Kyiv that they’re ready for dialogue. We want peace — but only on the terms I set June 2024 and by addressing the so-called “root causes.”

[That means Ukraine’s capitulation. What “progress” is Russia talking about?]

1/ Putin: We don’t see Ukraine ready for peace. This began with the 2014 coup and broken Minsk deals.

In 2022 we told Kyiv to withdraw troops from Donbas. They refused. In Istanbul they agreed, then walked away. Now they again reject ending the war peacefully.

2/

I told CNN Ukraine’s shift on NATO creates an opening: “fine, no NATO — but give us NATO-level protection.” Labels don’t matter, guarantees do.

Now it’s on the U.S. and Europe to build real security — money, structure, and the ability to act if Russia strikes. 1/ Q: If Trump pressures Zelenskyy, not Moscow, why would Russia give anything?

Me: I agree. Early on the US pushed Ukraine more than Russia. Now it’s shifting to real guarantees and reconstruction funds. Russia’s line is keep the Donbas grind or pause a few years.

2/