Moscow’s war doesn’t stop in Ukraine

Russian activist Igor Rogov, arrested in Poland, has admitted he worked as an FSB agent, informing on fellow opposition figures.

Court papers show he infiltrated movements linked to Navalny and Khodorkovsky before — The Guardian

1/ Rogov and his wife moved to Poland days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He told investigators he was coerced by the FSB years earlier and later paid for spying. Meetings took place in an unmarked apartment near the agency’s HQ.

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Russia’s drone war has entered an industrial phase.

Moscow now produces over 6,000 Shahed-type drones a month and can launch 700+ in a single night.

Each costs as little as $20k–$70k, while intercepting one with a Patriot missile costs over $3 million. — CNN

1/ Ukraine defends its skies using a layered system:

Machine-gun trucks for low-flying drones
Electronic-warfare (EW) systems to jam or spoof GPS
SAM and MANPAD missiles for higher threats
Laser weapons in development

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Jana Bakunina, Russian living in London since 1999, visited Yekaterinburg in autumn 2023 to interview friends and family — found "two years on, nothing has changed" in their support for Putin, inews writes.

"Every Russian ruler has been bit of despot." 1/ Her friend Katya, CEO of major business, believes Bucha war crimes were fabricated because "a Russian wouldn't loot, rape or kill civilians," calling Ukraine unfortunate pawn in Russia's defense from NATO. 2/

Ukrainian soldier “Zelenyi” helped a man to save his family from a burning house under bullets in Mariupol. Later same man betrayed him to Russians.

Zelenyi: When I stepped right after him to go to toilet, someone aimed a gun at my face. He was talking with Russians about me. 1/ Zelenyi: I was hung by a chain in their basement.

They periodically took me away for torture, took me to executions, where I had to clean up the bodies of shot soldiers and civilians. 2/

Germany's €377B defence package allocates most funds to traditional warfare — Rheinmetall's Armin Papperger says tanks to drones ratio is still 99 to 1.

Helsing's Gundbert Scherf calls this grave misstep, The Telegraph. 1/ Rheinmetall to receive €88B — lion's share of funding — for 687 Puma armoured vehicles and 561 Skyranger 30 air defence systems, while Diehl Defence gets €17.3B for Iris-T systems. 2/

Ukrainian border guard Yevhenii Sholudko, 28, returned from Russian captivity with a scar across his entire back.

Guards beat him with a steel rod with bearings and tore the skin off, blood ran down his spine. He says some men during intake defecated from pain - SlidstvoInfo. 1/ Yevhenii: At Kamensk-Shakhtinsk they lined us up naked and started beating immediately.

You don’t even understand what’s happening — just hit after hit until you fall. If you fell too fast, they lifted you and continued. 2/

Putin sidelined Lavrov after Trump summit failure.

Lavrov deliberately absent from key security council meeting this week and replaced at G20 summit Nov 22-23 in Johannesburg by Maxim Oreshkin, Putin's deputy chief of staff, The Telegraph. 1/ Lavrov, 76, hasn't been seen in public since October. Last appearing hosting North Korean FM Choe Son Hui on Oct 27.

His sidelining follows failed Budapest summit between Putin and Trump after reportedly tense call with Rubio. 2/

Reuters: The U.S. fully backs the EU using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and push for an end to the war.

Brussels’ plan lets governments use up to €185B of the €210B frozen in Europe without confiscating them. 1/ Since 2022, the U.S. and allies immobilized about $300B in Russian sovereign assets by banning transactions with Russia’s central bank and finance ministry.

The EU plan stalls over Belgium’s concerns, where most assets sit. 2/

Russia is sending mentally disabled soldiers to the front lines.

Video shows how incapacitated man lying in muddy ditch, stripped of uniform, "murmuring incoherently, clearly too mentally incapacitated to communicate or "move," — The Telegraph. 1/ Semyon Karmanov, 27, diagnosed in childhood with intellectual disability with significant behavioural disorders requiring care and treatment, classified as fit for military service and killed this autumn from head wound. 2/

Tetyana lived under occupation for two years. She secretly taught dance lessons online in Ukrainian. Curtains were closed, she whispered, her son and husband stood guard.

Ukrainian Pravda writes how Russia tries to break Ukrainian teachers in the occupied territories. 1/ Maria from Kherson refused Russian programs. Armed men tortured her for a week. She became ill and emigrated.

Now in exile, she teaches online and warns students in occupied areas to hide their Ukrainian schooling. 2/

Ninth-grader Andrian Hordiychuk from Rivne, Ukraine, built a LEGO-based orthosis prototype to help restore leg mobility — Rubryka.

His project StepUp won silver at Ukraine’s Junior Academy of Sciences competition.

Next step — a 3D-printed version for veterans’ rehab. 1/ Andrian used three servo motors and a LEGO Hub.

“I live near a war veterans’ hospital. I wanted to help people recover,” he said.

The device strengthens muscles and restores knee and foot motion after injuries. 2/

Netherlands DM Ruben Brekelmans: Putin wants to restore Soviet old sphere of influence — starting with the Baltics.

Russia is already recruiting and producing more than it needs for Ukraine.

We must take this threat seriously.

1/ Brekelmans: Investment in Ukraine’s army is the best investment in whole Europe’s security.

Netherlands is one of the staunchest allies Ukraine has out there. We delivered F-16 first. We spend more money than others.

[Thanks to all our Dutch allies!]

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Prof. Clarke of CSIS: The drone war has made ground movement difficult and armoured vehicles almost impossible to use safely.

The front line is now fluid, with scattered pockets of troops fighting vicious, close battles and relying on drone resupply that sometimes fails. 1/ Clarke: I don't think there'll be major ground movement until winter ends. Russians can't mount a strategic offensive, and Ukrainians can only hold their ground.

They're fighting well but exhausted, outnumbered, short on troops, and need rest to renew their units. 2/

Putin lost his teeth in Pokrovsk, a city in eastern Ukraine.

Former Ukrainian Marine Shaun Pinner compared it with the farmhouse at Waterloo. Both places mauled the army of an imperial aggressor, CEPA.

"We fight for survival. Russia fights for optics.” 1/ Pinner compares Pokrovsk to Hougoumont farmhouse at Waterloo, where holding position bled Napoleon's forces and disrupted his plan despite appearing insignificant on map. 2/

Russian officer Yuri Babakov to his troops:

“If you don't listen to orders, refuse to do your job, I swear on my mother's life, I will personally shoot you. I'll report you as missing, and shoot every single one of you. I don't give a f*ck,” — The Times. 1/ Putin’s army brutally inflicts on its own troops in Ukraine. Number of murdered by their own superiors is increasing.

Verstka identified 101 Russian servicemen who murdered fellow soldiers or sent them on suicide missions as punishment for refusing bribes or orders. 2/

Sophia Yanchevska, a 19-year old Ukrainian combat medic: You get used to seeing dead bodies or people with awful injuries.

You just don’t have time to be emphatic, you must look at it like at work.

[This commands respect, but sad that youth must face this because of Russia]

1/ Q: How do you deal with that one of your friends dies?

Sophia: You don’t have time to think about it. And your brain doesn’t believe that information.

I just tell myself “It’s not true”

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An 11-year-old Ukrainian girl in Espoo[Finland] says to her mother that her music teacher made her sing “Kalinka” in Russian.

When she refused, saying she is Ukrainian, the teacher replied: We don’t talk about war at school, — writes Yle. 1/ Her mother, Iryna Horkun-Silén, calls it normalization of the aggressor: “Kalinka” rose with the Soviet Army Choir, a symbol tied to today’s Russia.

She asks why a Finnish class starts “world music” with Russia during a full-scale war. 2/

Hodges: Trump is sincere when he says he wants to end the killing in Ukraine and see peace.

The problem is he hasn’t done what’s necessary for lasting peace. He won’t say Russia is the aggressor or tell Putin to get his troops out. 1/ Hodges: The hope was that Putin would overreach and make Trump angry enough to act, using his economic and diplomatic leverage and aid for Ukraine.

But he’s been hesitant. Now Putin has crossed the line, keeping the same maximalist objectives after planned Budapest meeting. 2/

Sikorski, Poland's Foreign Minister: We have a war at our borders.

Ukraine plans to resist for three years. Our job is to provide resources.

Russia’s economy is already weakening. As in World War I, the war may end when one side can no longer sustain it.

1/ Q: Will Ukraine survive this winter?
Sikorski: Russia is targeting electricity to force civilian hardship, push Ukraine to capitulate.

Ukraine's striking refineries that fuel Russia’s war effort. Race between pressure on civilians and pressure on the Russian war machine. 2/

Me: The situation in Pokrovsk is critical. Russians are inside the city — not in large numbers, but fighting them is extremely hard.

Ukraine has sent reinforcements. The town is destroyed yet crucial, as it opens the path deeper into Ukraine, my interview for CNN. 1/ Me: Winter cuts both ways. Frozen ground makes kill zones easier but supply harder. If Russians push beyond Pokrovsk, they may gain some advantage, yet moving will be tough.

For Ukrainians, defense will be brutal too. Winter makes everything harder on both sides. 2/

War is reshaping Ukraine.

Kharkiv, 40 km from Russia, faces constant strikes. Lviv, 70 km from Poland, is booming as people and companies move west.

Since 2022, Lviv’s population has reached 1 million, with 280 firms relocated, including 60 from Kharkiv. — The Economist.
1/ Lviv’s mayor Andriy Sadovyi says the city gained a new industrial park, a university and EU-funded rail links to Poland and Romania.

The historic center is full again with residents, tourists and students. Geography now defines opportunity.

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