“The only thing worse than no tanks in Red Square are burning tanks in Red Square.”

A European diplomat in Moscow captures how fast Putin’s authority is collapsing inside Russia, writes Mark Galeotti in The Times. 1/ For the first time in decades Putin cancelled armored vehicles from Saturday’s Victory Day parade. Moscow is ringed with Pantsir-S missile launchers on rooftops, electronic warfare stations and drone jammers. 2/

Fiona Hill: We are in a realm of magical and wishful thinking.

Iran is another personalized standoff between Trump and whoever his counterparts are, with each side trying to show who has the edge. Everyone else is watching this spectacle with real alarm. 1/ Hill: It will be very hard for any other state to corral Trump into a negotiation track.

This is all about how Trump thinks he is being viewed on the world stage: whether he looks strong, in control, and able to impose his will. 2/

Kasparov: America is no longer the rock people knew. For dissidents it was a beacon; for everyone else, a force to reckon with.

Today all bets are off. The world built around US military, economic and political power is over, and America’s role will be reconsidered. 1/ Kasparov: NATO is dead. It is not just irrelevant; it refused to take part in the war it was built for.

Russia was the original threat, and when the real challenge to European security came from Russia, NATO waffled, ducked, and categorically refused to join. 2/

Kellogg: Iran has two options. A deal written with disappearing ink, or military operations continue.

They use a mosaic defense, decentralizing command and control across 31 districts. We do not really know who is in control, so keep eliminating the Revolutionary Guards. 1/ Kellogg: I strongly advocate going after Kharg Island and putting a provisional government in charge.

There are Iranian opposition groups that could lead. Otherwise Tehran will keep doing what is in its playbook: talk, fight, talk again, and fight again. 2/

Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.

Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/ Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.

This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/

Pompeo: For 40 years, our policy was to sell more stuff into China and hope China would become more like us. That was wrong.

Of all the hostile leaders I dealt with, the Chinese Communist Party is the one that can actually change the way we live. 1/ Pompeo: We are not going to fully decouple from China.

But anything tied to technology, security, pharmaceuticals, or biotech should be made in friendly countries, so we are never again left in a crisis without the things we actually need. 2/

“If Russia tried to seize Kyiv again, it would be the biggest bloodbath in world history. Two million drones would swarm over the tanks and burn them mercilessly.”

The Guardian: Madyar is Russia’s top assassination target after Zelenskyy. 1/ Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, leads the 414th brigade — the unit that has made Putin cancel tanks at this Saturday’s Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly 20 years. 2/

Trump expected another Venezuela — days, a toppled regime, a victory lap.

Instead Iran mined Hormuz, shut 20% of global oil flows, and turned gas prices and polls into the real front.

Iran does not need to win militarily. Iran needs to make the exit humiliating — The Atlantic. 1/ Trump can sell almost any paper as a win. He cannot sell a war with no ending.

The White House is still waiting for Iran to answer a one page memorandum that extends a cease fire, not a treaty. 2/

Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.

Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/ Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.

Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/

Former Russian PM Kasyanov: There is no real threat to Putin's life from inner circle, but Putin is increasing his security because problems are growing.

Attitudes toward the war and Putin’s regime are changing. 62% of Russians want to stop the war and move to negotiations.

1/ Kasyanov: Victory Day has always been a major date for Putin, and he has used it a lot. The parade sends a strong signal to the world.

I think we may hear him speak about ending the war soon, but only on his own terms. Still, the situation is moving and changing.

2/

Putin: Russian soldiers are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, Russia’s heroes are moving forward.

The great feat of the victorious generation inspires our soldiers carrying out the special military operation today. 1/ Putin: No matter how military technology and methods of combat change, the main thing remains unchanged: people decide the fate of the country.

Russia’s success rests on moral strength, courage, valor, unity and the ability to endure any trial.

2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Mobilization must change because war itself changed.

Drones and robotic systems reshaped the battlefield, making old mass-army models obsolete. For the first time in history, robots entered war at scale.

1/ Zaluzhnyi: Russia tried to break the battlefield deadlock with new technology and tactics, but the result stayed the same: old-style offensives in a machine war only turn soldiers into expendable manpower that constantly needs replacement.

2/

Xi believes time will deliver Taiwan. Each year, Beijing builds economic, military, and diplomatic leverage that he expects to make unification unavoidable.

The first major test comes in 2028 — Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie Glaser, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Beijing's confidence comes from 2025. It hit Trump's tariffs with rare-earth export curbs and watched Washington back down.

DeepSeek showed China can match US AI models at a fraction of the cost. 2/

Congressman Mike Levin: Ukraine adapted faster because necessity forced innovation.

Ukrainians built cheap drone-against-drone warfare, while the US still often spends missiles worth millions of dollars to destroy drones that cost only tens of thousands.

1/ Mike Levin: J.D. Vance does not represent all Americans or all of Congress on Ukraine.

Ukrainians continue to defend a free society under constant Russian attacks, and support for Ukraine still holds across much of Washington.

2/

Kasparov: If Ukraine had the technological ability to bring down the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, it could become the end of Putin.

The regime rests on symbols. While Putin is in power, the war will not end. 1/ Kasparov: Ukraine’s strikes now hit the money and infrastructure that keep Putin in power.

Kremlin elites lose profits, and Putin fears pressure inside his own circle. Moscow wants talks and sanctions relief to pause, regroup, and stabilize the regime. 2X

Kasparov: Russia will lose territories after the war. The North Caucasus will likely break away first.

China already eyes the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia — lands that belonged to China until 1860.

1/ Kasparov: Ukraine now hits the infrastructure that feeds Putin’s regime.

Oil, logistics, and industry keep the Kremlin elite rich. Putin can’t keep burning their money forever for a war that brings no victory.

2/

China built a system where the world’s second-largest economy runs through markets, but political power still flows through one man.

Xi Jinping made sure nobody inside the Communist Party can become a true No. 2, Deng Yuwen for Foreign Policy. 1/ Many outsiders now see Cai Qi as China’s de facto second-most powerful man because he controls Xi’s schedule, documents, meetings, information flow, and security.

But proximity to Xi is not the same as independent power. 2/

Russia planned to use Iran to kill Americans.

The plan involved training 10,000 students from Iran, Tajikistan and Syria to operate drones that would sink American landing ships and destroy personnel — The Economist. 1/ A ten-page GRU proposal prepared for the Iranian side contained three elements: 5,000 short-range fiber-optic drones that cannot be jammed, an unspecified number of long-range drones with Starlink terminals, and operator training. 2/

Putin is losing his grip on Russia.

Every move he makes to preserve power accelerates the system’s decay, writes a former senior official in the Russian government for The Economist. 1/ The first signal is language. As recently as spring 2025 officials, governors and businessmen spoke in terms of “we” and “ours.” Now they describe the actions of the authorities as “his” business. Not our project, not our agenda, not our war. 2/

Trump created the opposite of the Russian dream world.

Putin wanted a world where Russia ignores rules, but America follows them. Trump gave him the opposite: an America that also ignores rules.

Russia doesn't benefit — Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.

1/ Russia relied on the UN Security Council veto as its key lever of global power. Trump is now dismantling the UN — withdrawing from 66 international bodies, withholding dues, stripping funding.

Russia's veto becomes worthless in a system that no longer matters.

2/

Blumenthal: Iran has a lot of cards. Americans are paying much higher prices for gasoline, food and everything dependent on petrochemicals and plastics.

You can't count on war being quick and easy or base it on bombing alone. The costs of this war have yet to be fully felt. 1/ Blumenthal: A nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. The President made a fundamental miscalculation that bombing alone would accomplish his objectives.

Those objectives have been shifting and contradictory. None has been achieved. 2/