Stubb: The world order is being redrawn in a transition comparable to 1918, 1945 or 1989.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point, pushing the system into disorder where the future balance of power remains unclear. 1/ Stubb: US foreign policy is now shaped by MAGA and America First, making it more ideological and interest-driven.

Washington no longer consults allies as before, and the Iran strike exposed a shift away from coalition-based action. 2/

In March 2022 Defense Minister Shoigu declared all objectives of the “special operation” completed.

In March 2026 Shoigu says no Russian region can feel safe. — GazetaRu

Everything is going according to “plan.” 1/
On March 17 Shoigu — now Security Council Secretary — spoke at a meeting in the Ural Federal District.

His exact words: “The pace of development of strike systems, primarily unmanned systems, and the sophistication of their use are such that no Russian region can feel safe.” 2/

Former Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba: Trump sees Ukraine as an obstacle, not an asset.

His worldview is that smaller nations should submit to great powers — which is why he is not looking for a strong Ukraine and expects a ceasefire through Ukraine’s concessions. 1/ Kuleba: Ukraine cannot afford to come at odds with Washington, but Washington can with Ukraine.

Kyiv’s strategy is to stay engaged and positive, while refusing steps that cross red lines, because abandoning the U.S. relationship is not an option. 2/

Bolton: If Europe says Iran is not its war, Trump could respond that Ukraine is not America’s war.

That rhetoric risks weakening transatlantic support and could shift US commitments at a critical moment for European allies. 1/ Bolton: Trump launched the war without preparing Congress, allies or the public.

He did not build political support or organize opposition inside Iran, and failed to assemble a coalition before acting, weakening NATO coordination. 2/

Ukrainian political analyst Maria Zolkina: Trump is dragged into a longer Iran operation than expected with no results after weeks.

Returning to Ukraine talks is illogical now, and no breakthrough should be expected as previous negotiations brought no success. 1/ Zolkina: Criticism of Zelenskyy raises tensions but will not bring any deal closer.

Negotiations remain stuck with repeating positions, while pressure from Washington suggests a ceasefire should come through Ukraine’s concessions. 2/

Russia’s shadow fleet is a danger for Europe’s security.

A damaged Russian tanker with fuel is a ticking time bomb drifting between Italy and Malta.

The crewless vessel Arctic Metagaz was hit by drones and now threatens environmental disaster, CNN. 1/ The tanker carries a dangerous cargo: around 900 tons of diesel and more than 60,000 tons of liquefied natural gas remain onboard, while the vessel is listing with a large breach in its hull. 2/

Nixon, 1983: Russians can be trusted only if we make agreements which are in their interest to keep, self-enforcing agreements.

Only if everything we do with them is linked to something that will cost them if they break the agreement. 1/ Nixon: In dealing with Russians, it doesn't mean that we have to lie and cheat, but we must be aware that they will when they can get away with it.

You can deal with them and they will keep a deal if you make it on the basis that will serve their interests and ours. 2/

Zelenskyy: War has no distance anymore. Drones already fly 3,000–5,000 km, soon up to 10,000.

Ukraine faces 350–500 drone attacks daily. No country could withstand that. There are no safe continents — distance is now a matter of months, not decades.

1/ Zelenskyy: Drones could become nuclear.

Drones are just carriers and in the hands of nuclear states like Russia, that makes them especially dangerous.

2X

19-year-old Vladyslav Stepanchuk led 21 soldiers out of encirclement during a four-hour firefight.

Zelenskyy awarded him the title Hero of Ukraine — he is the youngest Hero of Ukraine, reports Suspilne. 1/ In Kursk Oblast his unit was building firing positions on the Ukrainian-Russian border. A Russian reconnaissance drone spotted the group. Within an hour the positions came under a combined strike — artillery and Lancet kamikaze drones. 2/

NYT: European leaders are resisting Trump’s calls to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran conflict enters its third week.

The waterway carries about one-fifth of global oil, and the dispute is straining U.S.–Europe relations. 1/ Trump: Sending navies is a very small endeavor and a test of Europe’s commitment to its own security.

It will be very bad for the future of NATO if allies refuse. We protect you and you don’t want to get involved.

I’ll let you know who those nations are. 2/

Europe was never built to be a military power.

It was built as a peace project through economic integration, while the U.S. handled security via NATO. — Hugo Bromley for Foreign Affairs 1/ The EU has no army and cannot spend directly on defense — only subsidize states through grants or common debt.

Common EU defense would mean Germany and the Netherlands funding others’ military spending — including countries focused on different threats. 2/

WSJ: Iran blocked Hormuz to force Trump to end the war early. Trump has two choices — back down or escalate. He is signaling escalation.

Five-step plan to reopen the Strait: degrade, surveil, air cover, helicopters, Aegis destroyers. 1/ Step 1: Degrade Iranian missiles, mines, drones and unmanned surface vessels to a “militarily manageable risk.” This is already underway — air defenses and navy infrastructure targeted first. 2/

Bolton: Trump doesn't know the value of what he's trading.

He'll give away something really important to get small item that benefits him in the short term. You're either in an alliance or you're not. Trump doesn't understand the alliance concept. 1/ Bolton: The reality of two wars, one in Ukraine and one in Iran, show that we did not plan ahead adequately.

We did not foresee the enormous drain that wars at this level would cause. We should have had much bigger stockpiles, a bigger navy, a bigger air force. 2/

Stubb: The Middle East war is feeding Russia’s war machine.

Higher oil prices and US moves on Russian oil and waivers for India increase Russia’s revenues.

Everything is linked, and from a financial perspective the impact is negative for Ukraine. 1/ Stubb: On the battlefield, Ukraine is outperforming Russia.

Ukrainian forces are taking back more territory, and in the past three months there have been over 90,000 dead Russian soldiers, with much lower losses on the Ukrainian side. 2/

Snyder: Putin’s version of history is not really about the past.

If someone says how things were in the year 862 and that everything since then is wrong, that is not history. It is a way of talking about ambitions in the present. 1/ Snyder: The ironic thing about the Ukrainian war is that it is basically a world war in which only one country is fighting.

Because Ukraine has been successful in defending itself, the rest of us do not have to get that involved. So we try to deny Ukrainians agency. 2X

Snyder: The war in Ukraine is a global war. It involves all major powers, and how it ends will shape the arrangement of world power.

The war also concerns oil and gas, the ways we power the world, and the language, information and symbols through which we communicate. 1/ Snyder: WWII was indisputably a global war. From Hitler’s point of view, it was about Ukraine.

Like the present war, it reflected a longer history of colonialism. The war in Ukraine animated the analysis of totalitarianism that shaped how many understood the world after 1945. 2/

Pistorius: We will continue our efforts to support Ukraine. We are currently its strongest supporter.

Even though the media is very focused on the Middle East, we will continue to stand firmly by Ukraine's side so that it can defend itself. 1/ Pistorius: We did not provoke this [war in Iran]. This war began without any prior consultation.

We have a great responsibility for the eastern flank and the far north. We cannot be involved everywhere in the world at once, supporting wars we did not start. 2/

Fukuyama on Trump: The world has become a very dangerous place because the most powerful country is under the control of a 10-year-old boy.

That boy discovered a flamethrower in his parents’ backyard and is now enjoying the ability to burn things up with it. 1/ Fukuyama: It’s hard to overstate what a complete shambles American foreign policy has become since Trump launched his war against Iran on March 7.

Washington expected a decapitation strike to collapse the Islamic regime and bring in new leadership willing to work with the US. 2/

Declan Coady spent his teenage years building chairs for homeless kids in Des Moines. On March 1, 2026, an Iranian drone killed him at the Port of Shuaiba in Kuwait.

He was 20 years old — two months shy of his 21st birthday, writes New York Post. 1/ He was one of six US soldiers killed in a retaliatory Iranian strike during Operation Epic Fury. The youngest of the six.

A Drake University student. Enlisted in 2023. Trained as an IT specialist. Posthumously promoted to sergeant. 2/

Russia is building a digital fortress — North Korea-scale, but nuclear-armed and 15 times larger.

The Kremlin banned Facebook, Instagram, YouTube. Now Telegram is next.

The replacement: MAX, a state-surveillance messenger modeled on China’s WeChat —Politico. 1/ On Feb. 4, SpaceX tightened Starlink authentication. Russian satellite internet traffic in Ukraine dropped 75%.

Battlefield coordination collapsed. Russia started laying fiber-optic cables to the front. 2/

Kasparov: Putin is not simply fighting Ukraine.

It’s a war against Europe. Might is right — that’s what Putin believes in.

Ukraine is the main obstacle, but the conflict he sees is with Europe and the values of the free world. 1/ Kasparov: Dictators often say exactly what they plan to do.

Putin tested the West repeatedly, and saw limited consequences: Georgia, Crimea, Syria.

For authoritarian leaders, hesitation from democracies is interpreted as weakness and encouragement. 2/