Stalin expected to crush Finland in 10 days. It took 105 days and 400,000 Soviet casualties. He got 10% of Finnish territory.

Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a quick victory parade. 4 years later, Russia controls just 20% of pre-war Ukrainian territory — WP. 1/ Stalin's USSR had 170 million people vs Finland's 3.5 million. A Soviet general told Stalin it would take 10 days max.

Molotov said Stalin wanted to celebrate his birthday "on the steps of Finland's Parliament in precisely 20 days." 2/

Petraeus: This is Ukraine's greatest generation.

When the cessation of hostilities begins, we're going to see Ukraine as the greatest military industrial complex in the West, building an entirely new country focused on new technologies and new economic endeavors. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine is producing tomorrow's technology for today's war. West produces yesterday's technology for tomorrow's wars. That's got to be changed dramatically.

They've got to overhaul that, bring it more up to date, to reflect how warfare is evolving on the ground, in the air and on the sea in Ukraine. 2/

Rubio: The US and Europe are heirs to the same civilization.

From language to law to government, America is built on Western foundations. This alliance is not just military or commercial, it is civilizational. 1/ Rubio: When the US sounds critical about Europe, it is because we care. Our fate is intertwined with Europe’s. We want Europe to survive and prosper.

But this must be an alliance of partners willing and capable of fighting for who they are and what matters to them. 2/

Starmer: Europe is a sleeping giant. Our economies dwarf Russia’s — by more than 10 times over. We have enormous defense capabilities.

Europe has more than 20 types of frigates, around 10 types of fighter jets, over 10 types of main battle tanks. Meanwhile, the US has one. 1/ Starmer: Russia has made a huge strategic blunder in Ukraine. Russian casualties number well over a million.

But even as the war continues, Russia is rearming and reconstituting its armed forces and industrial base. 2/

Rubio: The U.S. is not leaving NATO. We have thousands of troops deployed and may shift some forces, as we always have, but our commitment stands.

We welcome stronger NATO capabilities and greater influence from allies. That’s a positive, not a threat.

1/ Rubio: We don’t want Europe to be dependent on America. We’re not asking Europe to be a vassal, we want to be partners.

The stronger each country and NATO as a whole are, the stronger the alliance is.

2X

Europe: “We’ll send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.”

Voters: “No, you won’t.”

Politico: 53% of Germans oppose sending troops. 43% of French voters say no. Even if that risks a fragile ceasefire.

1/ Only the U.K. and Canada show more support than opposition for sending troops to secure a postwar deal.

Western unity fractures when boots hit the ground.

2/

Eric Schmidt for FT: Ukraine’s no man’s land is the future of war.

After 4 years of full-scale invasion, frontline positions sit under constant drone surveillance. In 2025, Russia seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory. Almost anything that moves is detected and struck. 1/ Schmidt: The odds of being killed by drones for advancing Russian units are about 1 in 3.

Yet Moscow keeps pushing, absorbing 30,000-35,000 killed or seriously wounded per month, by Ukrainian estimates. Attrition alone may not break Russia. 2/

2007 Putin in Munich: NATO is a threat to Europe's security, not me! [Also, black is white.]

Putin: NATO expansion has nothing to do with modernization or European security.

It is a serious provocation that reduces mutual trust. Against whom is this expansion directed? 1/ Putin: Why must we bomb and shoot at every opportunity?

There was a peaceful transition to democracy in our country. A peaceful transformation of the Soviet regime, including nuclear weapons. Why do we lack respect for law? 2/

Rubio: Ukraine deserves a lot of credit, they fought bravely.

But without U.S. support, they likely would not have survived the first days of the war.

Billions in American aid came even before the war started. Javelin missiles disabled Russian tanks. 1/ Rubio: No one is “winning” in Ukraine. Russia is losing 7–8,000 soldiers a week. Not wounded, dead.

Ukraine has suffered massive damage, including repeated strikes on its energy infrastructure. Both sides are taking heavy damage. 2/

Obama: Aliens are real, but I haven’t seen them. And they’re not being kept in Area 51.

There’s no underground facility, unless there’s an enormous conspiracy they hid from the president.

1/ Obama: Angela Merkel was the world leader I liked most. She was really the leader of Europe during my presidency.

Though she was center-right and I’m center-left, she had integrity, was wicked smart, analytical and practical.

2X

AI has surpassed human mathematicians.

GPT-5.2 solved Erdős' mathematical problem No. 397, which scientists from around the world had been unable to solve for decades — The Neuron Daily.

Fields Medalist (the top math prize) Terence Tao accepted the proof.

1/ Soon, AI will begin to conquer science and conduct its own research. We need to know how to work with it.

For three years now, Kyiv School of Economics has an “Artificial Intelligence” bachelor program where you can learn how to do this.

2/

Russia will be fucked and will disintegrate after war. Returning veterans will form gangs and organized crime networks.

Vosman, Estonia’s top Russia analyst: Kremlin fears radicalized men coming home. Because it can't control them like it controls Orthodox Church - VSquare. 1/ Thousands of men will return demanding prostheses, demanding hero status, maybe positions.

Vosman: A separate topic is the proliferation of weapons after the war. All that alcoholism, PTSD — Russia simply is not ready. We see what the level of russian healthcare is. 2/

Russia produces artillery barrels with European machine tools.

Frontelligence Insight obtained Russian procurement documents. Plant №9 produces artillery barrels, tank guns, naval depth charge launchers — Militarnyi. 1/ Russia planned to install at least 22 large industrial machine tools at the modernized facility.

Almost all critical production stages depend on machines from Europe and Asia. Large-scale industrial equipment: gear machines, milling centers, multi-functional lathes. 2/

Nigerian engineer Balogun Adisa Ridwan traveled to Russia for work. Russia forced him to sign a contract in Russian without translator. 16 in days training, then sent to frozen trench near Lyman. Declared dead back home.

Balogun: "I was lucky to be captured." — United24. 1/ Balogun: "The day we were signing the contract, I didn't understand the language. They didn't allow us to use our phones to translate. I told them about my job. Maybe they were going to put me in my field. I didn't know they would use me." 2/

European countries must increase the size of their armies to stop russia. Europeans pledged defense spending to 3.5% by 2035.

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, NATO's top military chief: "Many nations need to increase the numbers". — The Times. 1/ Cavo Dragone: “Spending increases must translate into more troops and equipment.”

Several countries reintroduced compulsory military service: Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden. Britain's regular army is 70,000 strong. Progress in recruitment and retention has been slow. 2/

Kaja Kallas: Russia is no superpower.

After more than a decade of war, it has barely moved beyond the 2014 lines, and lost 1.2 million people.

Today, Russia is broken. Its economy is in shreds, it is cut off from European energy markets, and its own people are fleeing.

1/ Kaja Kallas: Russia gains more at the negotiations than it has achieved on the battlefield.

This is the biggest threat.

2/

Pavel: Russia says they hold a strategic initiative, but the cost for every square kilometre of Ukraine is high. It exceeded last month the capacity for recruitment. If we maintain support and be very decisive when it comes to sanctions, then the only way is to negotiate. 1/ Pavel: We are not afraid of you, Russia. We are ready. We have to show such a spirit throughout Europe, telling Russia that we are not afraid. Russia is a weak country with a lot of nuclear weapons, and we should approach it that way. 2/

Ukrainian special forces soldier: Kyrylo Budanov [former head of Ukrainian intelligence] set the targets and sat near them when training us.

Our task was to enter, find, and eliminate targets.

We cleared every single one. He was meter from them. Showed trust like that.

1/ In 2016, Budanov and Ukrainian special forces conducted a raid in Crimea.

Budanov: The car we were expecting pulled up. Armed men jumped out shouting, ‘FSB! Everyone on the ground!’

It didn’t help them. No one lay down, except them.

2/

Zelenskyy: Nobody supports elections during the war. This is something very difficult to do.

But if the American side will push this signal, I am ready to show that we are ready for the elections.

Give us 2 months of ceasefire, and we will go to elections. 1/ Give us security infrastructure. Maybe not 2 months, but we need a lot of days to prepare.

Give us the possibility for our soldiers to vote on how they can defend our lives and our country and, at the same moment, to vote. 2/

Graham: If we sell out Ukraine, Taiwan is next. If we secure guarantees that prevent a third invasion, NATO becomes bigger and stronger, and Ukraine remains free and independent.

How this war ends will shape the world for decades. 1/ Graham: I want to give Ukraine Tomahawks to hit the infrastructure Russia uses to build drones and weapons.

Change the military equation. And pass our bipartisan bill to give Trump tools to pressure countries propping up this killing machine. 2X

Graham: The “world order” you want to preserve failed. Putin invaded three times. Nothing Europe did deterred him. Nothing we did deterred him.

This is a war driven by a guy who believes Ukraine should not exist and will keep going until someone stops him. 1/ Graham: Sanctions alone have not changed Putin’s behavior. He does not care how many of his people die.

His customers must care. Without China, Brazil and India buying Russian oil, he would be out of business. 2/