Bolton: The only way to deal with Iran on oil and Hormuz is for the U.S. and Gulf Arabs to force the Strait open.

That is how you restore deterrence against Tehran turning access on and off like a light switch. 1/ Bolton: The six-week ceasefire benefited only Iran.

It let the regime get back up, dig out arsenals and storage sites, and reportedly restart drone production, maybe ballistic missiles too. That shows the IRGC’s real mission is regime survival. 2/

Bolton: Ukrainian strikes inside Russia undercut Kremlin propaganda.

They show ordinary Russians the war is not going well — not only by causing real military damage, but by making the reality of the war visible on Russian territory. 1/ Bolton: Russia expected significant territorial gains this spring, and that has not happened.

If anything, Russia has lost territory in Ukraine. By August or September, Putin may need another plan because the current strategy is not working. 2/

Kasparov: Russians are not angry because Russia committed a crime against Ukraine. They are angry because Putin cannot win.

They do not criticize him for killing Ukrainians — they criticize him for killing too few and too slowly. 1/ Kasparov: Russian history forgives tsars and dictators for war, repression and violence as long as the state looks strong.

But a war that starts and is not won always leads to shocks. Eventually comes the phrase: the tsar is not real. 2/

Russia’s war machine increasingly runs on Chinese components, Chinese drones, Chinese machine tools, and Chinese chemicals — while Beijing officially claims neutrality.

Putin arrived in Beijing as the dependent partner, The Economist. 1/ Chinese semiconductors and microelectronics are now critical for Russian missile and drone production.

They power precision-guided weapons striking Ukrainian cities, while China also dominates the FPV drone supply chain Russia relies on. 2/

Iran is the new Vietnam, and Ukraine is the new Korea.

Trump compressed 5 years of LBJ's Vietnam policy into 2 months on Iran and moved to Nixon's playbook of bluster and extrication via an unsatisfying deal — Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Iran ends like Vietnam in 1973, with an unstable compromise that stops the fighting but punts the hard questions.

The deal leaves the fate of the Iranian regime and its nuclear program for another day. 2/

Putin wants to end the war by the end of 2026. But only with full control of Donbas and Europe's acknowledgment of Russia's territorial gains.

Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. Kremlin officials believe the conflict has reached a dead end, — Bloomberg.

1/ Ukraine's casualty ratio improved to roughly one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian troops — Finnish President Stubb said last month.

Rubio confirmed May 13: Ukraine now has Europe's "most powerful armed forces."

2/

Browder: How does Putin afford to keep fighting after four years? Oil and oil products. That is where the money comes from.

If we want to stop the invasion, we take away his money — and that means stopping Russia’s oil sales. 1/ Browder: Pausing sanctions does not create new jet fuel. Russia can still sell under sanctions — it just gets a lower price.

Removing pressure only redistributes profit back to Moscow. It does not solve shortages; it gives Putin more money. 2/

Kellogg: Trump has been extremely measured with Iran, but negotiations should be broken off.

Seize Kharg Island. It controls 90% of Iran’s economy, puts the whole country at risk, especially the leadership, and creates leverage fast. 1/ Kellogg: Take the command-and-control hub for the Strait, put Marines there, line up Avenger-class minesweepers, and escort ships out on the Omani side.

Clear the Strait, take control of the situation, and stop trusting the IRGC. 2/

Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.

It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/ Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.

The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/

Budanov: Russia is building a digital ghetto.

It wants to control people, complicate Ukrainian intelligence work, and prepare society for serious decisions that may be unpopular or hard to explain. That is why it cuts off alternative information. 1/ Budanov: Russia is replacing reality. In Moscow, there is a whole “museum of Ukrainian Nazism.”

It has nothing to do with reality, but it is built logically and professionally. A person who sees it can believe it — that is the danger. 2/

Budanov: Russia’s goals keep moving lower under pressure from reality. First it was “Kyiv in three days.”

After almost four years, it became “Donbas at any cost.” Now the new goal is Ukraine outside military alliances and without nuclear status. 1/ Budanov: Russia’s leadership lives in numbers, charts, economic and geopolitical forecasts — and those forecasts look bad for them.

There is no real optimism at the top. That is why their public narratives keep changing. 2/

Putin came to Beijing weaker than at his last visit. Moscow took 500+ drones three days earlier. Russia lost net territory last month for the first time since Aug 2024.

With Middle East crude squeezed, Xi now extracts energy on Beijing's terms — CNN. 1/ Xi rolled out the red carpet anyway. Honor guard, gun salute, children with flags. The same welcome Trump received days earlier.

The substance diverged. Trump left without a joint statement. Putin signed one. 2/

Xi got Trump to hedge on a multibillion-dollar Taiwan arms sale and gave up nothing in return.

After 43 hours in Beijing, Trump said he had not decided whether to proceed with the sale — Washington Post. 1/ Xi pursued stability above all else.

He framed the summit as a "constructive, strategically stable relationship." Chinese state media said the framework should guide US-China ties through Trump's term and beyond. 2/

Russia's stalled offensive runs on North Korean shells, North Korean missiles, and North Korean blood.

Pyongyang has shipped up to $14.4B in arms and 15,000 troops since Aug 2023 — Bloomberg. 1/ Russia pays mostly in sensitive military technology and precision components.

Russia also helped build two North Korean destroyers and upgraded Pyongyang's electronic warfare and jamming systems. 2/

For three years Europe armed Ukraine. After Trump cancelled Germany's Tomahawks this month, Ukraine may now arm Europe.

Diplomatic source in Berlin: "Together with Ukraine, a lot is possible with short time frames" — The Telegraph. 1/ Joe Biden pledged the Tomahawks to Germany in Jul 2024, range 1,550 miles.

They were closing a fatal gap. Europe has sea-launched Tomahawks but no ground-launched system to hit Russian submarine ports and air bases. 2/

Russia is running out of people for its war in Ukraine — so Putin is handing out passports in Transnistria.

Putin signed a decree allowing residents of Moldova's breakaway region to obtain Russian citizenship without living in Russia or speaking Russian — Politico. 1/ Moldovan President Maia Sandu: "Probably they need more people to send to the war in Ukraine." 2/

Q: What are the top-3 innovations Germany looks up to in Ukraine?

Pistorius: AI, drones, including UAV, and for us it's very important to develop a long-range missile, an anti-ballistic missile.

We need more European solutions for what we are now forced to buy elsewhere.

1/ Fedorov: Our goal is to intercept 90–95% of missiles and Shaheds.

Ukraine launched the world's first 'Short-Range Air Defense' structure within the Air Force. Interceptor drones now hit 50–75% of Shaheds.

Germany is investing in Ukrainian Air Defense.

2/

Rachman, FT: "The current wars in Ukraine and Iran underline how foolish it is to assume that a military superpower will always win a war against a smaller country."

China's assumption that Taiwan would be helpless without American support is a dangerous mistake.

1/ Ukraine has no navy — yet forced the Russian navy out of the Black Sea. Iran's navy was reportedly destroyed — yet Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with drones, missiles and speedboats.

Naval superpowers are increasingly vulnerable to cheap weapons.

2/

CNN: Russian drones circle targeting vehicles and dropping explosives on troops. You have to keep moving or they may swarm around you.

The battlefield has completely changed in a year. Nobody drives cars or tanks unless they have to. Nets and robots are now key protection. 1/ CNN: Drones also target heavy gunfire. Their friend, a lieutenant, killed when this car was hit just two days ago.

We are nearing their bunker position. There are moments here to rest, to see the trophies of drones that failed. It's a bit tough at this moment. 2/

Merz: With Europe facing enormous security challenges, close coordination has never been more important.

Europe will not let up in its efforts for a durable and just peace in Ukraine — and Kyiv can rely on Europe’s consistent support. 1/ Merz: Europe will keep increasing pressure on Moscow. Russia must understand that it has to negotiate.

Europe is ready to come to the negotiating table with Ukraine, Russia and the United States. 2/

Graham: If China invades Taiwan, the full weight of U.S. sanctions and tariffs should hit on day one.

That is deterrence. If we had done this with Russia before Ukraine, I do not think Putin would have invaded. 1/ Graham: China buys 90% of Iran’s oil.

Trump says he does not need Beijing’s help, but there will come a moment when China has to be held accountable. If you keep funding Iran, there must be a price. 2/