Republicans now fight each other over Trump’s Ukraine deal.

Senator McConnell says the plan “rewards aggression” and hands Putin gains he failed to win in two years of war, writes The New York Times.

1/ Vance fires back. He calls McConnell’s warning a “ridiculous attack” and defends the draft deal that cuts Ukraine’s army and forces Kyiv to give up territory.

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Timothy Snyder explains why Trump’s Ukraine “peace plan” is fatal and cannot produce lasting peace.

He writes six structural problems in the Witkoff–Dmitriev proposal in 1/ Wyborcza.pl 1. Nuclear risk

If Ukraine is forced to accept territorial losses because Russia has nukes, every state concludes that only nuclear weapons prevent invasion.

That triggers global proliferation and raises the risk of a nuclear world war. 2/

Putin ordered authorities to “strengthen Russian identity” in occupied Ukrainian regions. 95% of locals must identify as Russian by 2036 — Reuters.

The decree calls it “restoring the unity of historical Russian territories” and countering foreign attempts to create division.

1/ The decree will take effect in January.

It ties cultural and linguistic control directly to Putin’s justification for the 2022 invasion — to “protect Russian-speakers” and “reunify historical lands.”

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“After 100 days on the position — the last 20 of them hell — I finally broke out of the encirclement,” Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr Honcharuk on his FB.

My brothers-in-arms “buried” me twice, because given the conditions I was in, they believed survival was almost impossible. 1/ Oleksandr: Someone shades captured villages in red, I think every day about my comrade who was killed just a few meters from me.

Our group came under mortar fire during movement, and Russian drones surrounded us, leaving almost no chance. 2/

Zelenskyy is entering negotiations at his weakest moment since 2022 — hit by a $100M corruption scandal and facing a U.S.–Russia plan that Ukrainians see as capitulation.

I told the WSJ: “If we surrender to Russia in a meaningful way, more and not fewer people will die.” 1/ Me: “You can deny intelligence, you can deny support, but it won’t matter in the short run. Ukraine’s military is exhausted, but it is not in a mood to surrender.” 2/

Keane: Putin has not made any concessions.

He believes the more the war is protracted and the killing goes on, the more he thinks he can weaken the resolve of the United States and European leaders and pressure Zelenskyy to make concessions. 1/ Keane: Putin has broken every deal he has ever been involved in — in Ukraine and Syria.

Zelenskyy wants security guarantees and forces there to make certain Putin won’t attack again. Some means of deterrence has to be worked on. 2/

The Guardian: Trump sends Steve Witkoff to Moscow.

Trump says “a few disagreements” remain but refuses any summit until a deal is almost done.

Ukraine and Russia still refuse to move on territory and security.

1/ Zelenskyy says he can meet Trump “as soon as possible” and already edits the Geneva draft.

Trump instead sends Army Sec. Dan Driscoll to Kyiv, he suddenly becomes the key negotiator.

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Trump on leaked WitkoffGate: I haven’t heard it. But that’s a standard thing. He’s got to sell Ukraine to Russia and Russia to Ukraine. That’s what a dealmaker does. [I agree!!!]

You’ve got to say: ‘Look, they want this, you’ve got to convince them of this.’ 1/ Q: Many Republicans felt the first 28-point plan was too favorable to Russia. Have you changed it?

Trump: That was just a map, not a plan. It was a concept. And from there they’re taking each one of the 28 points and then you get down to 22 points. A lot of them resolved. 2/

Lavrov: During the Ukrainian conflict, Russia has rallied together and purged itself of those who were insincere in their relations with the Motherland.

Europe always wanted harm for Russia, Zelenskyy and his entourage make contradictory statements about the US peace plan. 1/ Lavrov: Before the Ukrainian conflict, European authorities only pretended to be friendly, but in reality they always wanted harm and misfortune for Russia. 2/

Lavrov: Russia has received Trump's plan through unofficial channels and is ready to discuss specific wording.

Europe wants to undermine efforts to resolve the conflict, Russia expects the US to pass a plan agreed with Europe and Ukraine, the EU has a colonial mentality. 1/ Lavrov: So far, we have not received from our American colleagues the version that the media is speculating about.

The West wants to rework Trump's plan in order to undermine the settlement efforts. 2/

The WSJ lays out what a real Ukraine peace must look like: sovereign Ukraine, real security guarantees, Western long-range weapons, freedom to choose alliances, and terms that stop Putin from launching the next invasion in six months. 1/ Rubio calls the U.S. proposal a “living, breathing document,” but the original 28-point plan bent toward Moscow — banning Ukraine from Western security ties and leaving it exposed.

That is not a durable peace. 2/

Rubio’s arrival in Geneva added flexibility and closer allied work to chaotic peace talks.

He changed Trump’s Ukraine line after Army Secretary Driscoll set a hard deadline.

The U.S. and Ukraine now have a revised 19-point plan with no territorial concessions — Politico. 1/ Driscoll spent two days pressuring Ukraine and European allies to accept a 28-point peace proposal by Thursday.

NATO officials and Ukrainians saw this as too rushed and too favorable to Moscow's interests. 2/

Zelenskyy: The American side is set on being constructive. As for now, after Geneva, there are fewer points [of peace plan]. No longer 28.

The list of steps to end the war is now workable. And many proper elements have been reflected in this framework. 1/ Zelenskyy: Sensitive issues I am discussing with President Trump.

Ukraine is not alone, and that matters. Our team has already reported today on the new draft of steps. And this is truly the right approach. 2/

Stubb: Peace mediation always needs patience.

The plan has 3 levels. Level 1 is what happens to Ukraine, land swaps, etc. Level 2 is European security — the EU and NATO. Level 3 is the transatlantic partnership.

We had talks in Geneva with Rubio, Yermak, and others. 1/ Stubb: We work on this as a team. We had 11 countries from the Coalition of the Willing meeting here in Johannesburg yesterday, including Canada and Japan, who are strongly committed to finding a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. We work on the text and negotiate together. 2/

Europe is running out of time to protect itself.

Reuters: The EU must move on Russia’s €210bn frozen assets before Trump’s peace plan forces Ukraine into territorial concessions that would expose Europe’s own borders.

1/ Belgium blocks the Commission’s plan because Euroclear holds €185bn and Brussels fears Russian lawsuits.

A workaround now on the table would shift the entire Russian account into a new SPV that assumes all legal risk.

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Bolton: Kremlin's ultimate goal is not simply to neutralize Ukraine's capacity for self-defense, but to push NATO back as well.

That's totally unacceptable. For the U.S. even to have contemplated some of these ideas is very disturbing. We'll have even more confusion. 1/ Bolton: I think where we stand now [in peace deal] is that the whole issue is under discussion by a broader group of countries, including Ukraine.

Donald Trump is still intensely motivated to find a deal regarding Ukraine to bolster his Nobel Peace Prize candidacy. 2/

“When I left Mariupol, I cried every morning over what I had left behind. When I went back, I cried every morning because of what I saw.”

The NYT reports how Russia is Russifying Mariupol, hiding its 2022 war crimes behind new construction and property seizures. 1/ Russia confiscates homes of Ukrainians who fled the 2022 siege and refused Russian passports. Properties are declared “abandoned” after Moscow rewrites street names and building numbers to void Ukrainian deeds. 2/

Russia can’t pay its soldiers.

Yakutia has frozen military bonuses because the region ran out of money — the first open budget collapse directly caused by mobilization, UNITED24 reports.

Yakutia’s finance minister admitted: “Unfortunately, we really have this situation.” 1/ Yakutia became one of Russia’s biggest recruiters after 2022.

To keep enlistment numbers high, the region offered $29,000 per soldier in upfront bonuses.

Now officials say they can’t even predict how many soldiers need to be paid and funding has dried up. 2/

US lawmakers said Rubio called them in Halifax to insist the leaked Ukraine peace plan “is not our recommendation” and was actually a Russian-origin proposal passed to a US representative and leaked without authorization, Politico. 1/ Rubio told senators he was unaware of any threat to cut US intelligence or weapons if Kyiv rejects the plan, contradicting days of reporting that triggered panic in European capitals and Kyiv. 2/

I told WSJ that given the leverage the US seems willing to exert, Zelenskyy would need to consider the peace proposal seriously, even though the current version would be impossible for Ukrainians to accept

The real question is whether Ukraine can get a better deal. 1/ I warned that Ukraine faces a huge budget deficit for the coming year, which Kyiv will need Western aid to fill:

We don’t have money for the spring. We have a domestic political crisis, and Europe and the US are not that willing to continue to fund us. 2/

Lawrence Freedman: If you want to put in an assurance force you still need American help in Ukraine.

Europe is just not as good as it should be. They don’t want to break with the Americans.

Russians want to deal with the Americans. 1/ Freedman: Russia is taking more risks, becoming a bit bolder. That should worry NATO. The Polish business is quite serious, actual sabotage.

We're on the edge. Incrementally it becomes a big deal. There's a danger one of these will get out of hand. 2/