Theresa May: It cannot be business as usual with Russia. It wasn’t after the Salisbury attack, and certainly not after what has happened in Ukraine.

People often ask me what Putin is like. Once a KGB man, always a KGB man. 1/ May: Russia and Putin are under significant strain. The economy has been hit hard, and Russia is losing significant numbers of personnel, both killed and wounded.

Ukraine is rapidly improving its ability to fight, and the balance is shifting. 2/

War analyst Barros: Ukraine wraps tanks in a bubble of drones and jamming before attacking sectors weakened by strikes, real combined arms.

Russia's own mechanized assaults keep failing. One last week cost them over a company's worth of equipment. 1/ Barros: When Western armor gets hit in these assaults, crews mostly survive with concussions or minor injuries.

Old Soviet-style vehicles usually kill the crew on a hit. That's the case for resupplying armor now. 2X

War analyst Barros: Russia's advance has flatlined, basically net zero.

Ukraine is mid-shaping operations to set up a breakout, and I'm confident we'll see Ukrainian territorial gains to talk about in the coming months. 1/ Barros: The front is genuinely contested for the first time in two years. Russia holds the initiative around Pokrovsk.

Ukraine is reportedly counterattacking near Kharkiv and Donetsk, and holds the initiative in Zaporizhzhia. 2/

Loomer: If I were president and Russia supplied Iran with weapons, I would kill Putin.

Putin is afraid of Trump. He can pretend he is not, but he knows Trump calls the shots. Trump could be far more aggressive with Putin if he wanted. I do not speak for Trump.

1/ Loomer: I’m not saying Trump should kill Putin.

If I were president and a country lied to my face while arming an enemy whose state TV chants “death to America” and “death to Trump,” I would find a way for that leader to die of a sudden heart attack.

2X

Loomer: I spoke to Trump about two days after interviewing Zelenskyy.

He told me he likes President Zelenskyy very much, but he also likes Vladimir Putin. He says he gets along with both. I do plan to meet with Trump when I get back.

1/ Loomer: Lavrov mocked questions about Russia arming Iran to kill U.S. soldiers.

U.S. officials should say “fuck the Russians” and come to Kyiv. If I survived ballistic missiles here, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff can come too.

2/

A Russian soldier raped 63-year-old Halyna Tyshchenko at gunpoint, then marched her naked into freezing cold.

Russian guards raped captives with bottles and sticks and threatened to inject expanding foam into their anuses. They said they would leave them childless — The WSJ. 1/ Russians shocked captives' genitals and forced them to stand, crouch, and parade naked for hours. Some guards simply enjoyed it, former captives said. 2/

Kasparov: Ukraine's drones now reach 4,000 to 5,000 kilometers, close to stripping Russia of its oil-refining capacity.

That cuts both ways: it pushes Putin to speed up escalation while gutting Russia's offensive capability. 1/ Kasparov: Talk of this war reaching the Baltics has moved from speculation into real policy discussion among Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states themselves.

Look at their actions: rising defense budgets, border fortifications, drone barriers along the frontier. 2/

Kasparov: Putin is betting on Europe's election calendar.

France votes for president in ten months, and a Le Pen win, under 50% likely, would shift the EU fundamentally. Germany's AfD sits in regional governments. 1/ Kasparov: The EU's 21st sanctions package is stuck partly because one private Greek shipping company doesn't want to eat the losses from cutting Russian gas-transport quotas.

A single firm's profit margin is holding up a wartime sanctions measure. 2/

Stubb: Ukraine is now on top militarily, politically and economically, stronger than at any time in this war.

Half of Ukraine’s drones that hit Russia reach their targets. Half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity is damaged. Russia loses 8 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian.

1/ Stubb: For Lindsey, Ukraine was a victory for freedom, for the Europe-U.S. alliance, for NATO, for liberal democracy and for the free world.

He fought hard for his values, and Ukraine was one of the most important battles he fought.

2/

Kellogg: You do not need a Gulf War-style invasion. Hit strategic targets.

Take Kharg Island, 16 miles offshore and central to Iran’s economy. Hold it and say: end this, and we give it back. This is for our kids and grandkids. No nuclear Iran.

1/ Kellogg: Russia and China are probably helping Iran as much as they can. This is no longer a military fight.

It is a political fight, a gut-check moment: are we closing them out or not? Trump has put real effort into negotiations, but now the question is how to finish this.

2X

Zelenskyy: It’s a pity Crimea is not back on the table, or NOT YET. Land matters: it is our territory, history and homes.

Saving people comes first. Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and diplomacy. Putin wants 500,000 more soldiers this autumn while losing 30,000 a month.

1/ Zelenskyy: Putin said he would occupy Ukraine in two or three days.

Now Ukraine has built a great miltech industry: 500 companies with strong technologies and soldiers holding the front. Putin loses 30,000 soldiers a month. The initiative is no longer in Putin’s hands.

2/

Trump’s administration told Congress it will not finish spending $400mn in approved Ukraine aid until fiscal 2029, the year Trump leaves office.

Reuters: Kyiv is critically low on weapons needed to defend against Russian missile attacks. 1/ Pentagon letter: The funds would be obligated in fiscal 2026, but final delivery is estimated for the year ending Sept. 30, 2029.

Reuters source: Two months after the letter, the money still had not been disbursed or even put on contract. 2/

Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Khmara: Ukraine’s deep strikes and drone campaigns must cost about 2% of the damage they cause Russia.

We can’t go punch for punch with Russia. We have to be asymmetric, interview with Laura Loomer.

1/ Khmara: Don’t send someone where you’re not ready to go yourself.

Soldiers know I would never ask them to take a risk I would not take myself.

2/

Ukraine wants to end its reliance on the US-made Patriot and build a cheaper European system of its own, codenamed Freyja.

Kyiv wants a prototype ready by the first half of 2027, with Russian ballistic missiles now outpacing its dwindling supply of interceptors — Reuters. 1/ Ukraine depends almost entirely on US-made Patriots, the only weapon in its arsenal that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles flying at several times the speed of sound.

Patriot supplies keep slipping on political volatility, low stocks, and a long production cycle. 2/

Rutte: Ukraine is exceeding our expectations. Now Putin must end the bloodbath and come to the negotiating table.

President Trump plays a crucial role. He is the one Putin looks to for leadership, and he is providing that leadership.

1/ Rutte: Trump got Europe and Canada to boost defense spending toward U.S. levels, adding a quarter-trillion dollars.

Presidents since Eisenhower tried and failed to do this. On Ukraine, Trump and Zelenskyy will discuss more pressure on Putin to get him to the table.

2X

McFaul: Ukraine plans to produce 7 million drones in 2026. That lets Ukraine strike deep inside Russia and changes the war.

Ukraine has cards now. Trump can help with more interceptors and restore military aid he cut to near zero.

1/ McFaul: Trump’s team is no longer pushing Zelenskyy to give up Donbas. Putin believed he got that promise in Alaska.

Zelenskyy resisted months of pressure, and Washington moved away from it. A deal without Donbas will be hard, but this shift matters.

2/

Sikorski: Russia has sold 44 tonnes of gold, about half its reserve.

It’s a sign Moscow is running low on resources. This winter may be Putin's last chance to break Ukraine, so Europe's help decides if Ukraine wins. 1/ Sikorski: Rubio's call with Lavrov lasted 37 minutes. I don't see grounds to expect a breakthrough from that.

Real progress needs Putin himself to lower his ambitions about conquering Ukraine, and I don't believe that's happening. 2/

Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, hid military goods from war-related searches after Ukrainian drones hit seven warehouses since July 18.

Search for "everything for the SVO," Russia's war euphemism, returned 200k products. Now it shows none — Kyiv Independent. 1/ Wildberries sells dual-use gear that Russian troops use against Ukraine, including bulletproof vests and fiber-optic cable for drones.

Kyiv said it struck the warehouses to disrupt Russian army logistics. Wildberries is often compared to Amazon for its reach across Russia. 2/

Former British Army Colonel Ingram: Russia wants Ukraine to capitulate, pause the war, restore foreign ties, rebuild its army and strike again.

It will come back for another slice of Ukraine, Georgia or elsewhere. Moscow plays for generations; the West plays by elections.

1/ Ingram: It is too early to say Putin’s inner circle is turning on him. Putin controls them.

If one speaks against him, he tends to have an “accident,” usually a ninth-floor window. Putin is oligarch-in-chief: he lets them keep money and corruption, or he takes them out.

2/

Kapustin, commander of Ukraine's Russian Volunteer Corps: What breaks a captured Russian soldier isn't our gear. It's that after four days drinking from puddles, we hand him water from our own hands.

That's when something cracks. 1/ Kapustin: Russian POWs from Vovchansk arrive with frostbitten feet, some missing toes.

Sent out for weeks without winter gear, they wrap their feet in foil thermal blankets, thinking it's waterproof. One captured 18-year-old lost several toes after being sent to fetch snow. 2/

Who else but Ukraine can shut the Black Sea to Russia with naval and aerial drones? In 18 days in July, Ukraine hit 196 vessels

Russia’s Azov oil-product exports stopped. In Black Sea ports, exports fell nearly in half to 1 million tons. Tanker calls dropped from 55 to 27, EP.1/ Together with strikes on Russian refineries, these attacks stopped exports of key oil products.

Russia no longer exports gasoline. Jet fuel exports stopped. Diesel shipments fell to 4% of the level before Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, oil sites, and logistics.

2/