Zelenskyy: Lukashenko says he doesn't want to be dragged into this war. He should be honest with his own people.

It's not him being dragged in, it's his entire country, dragged in by Russia. They've been doing this since day one of the full-scale invasion. That is a fact. 1/ Zelenskyy: When the full-scale war began, missiles flew from Belarus — killing children, killing adults.

He called and apologized, said he didn't control it, that Russia acted on his territory. I don't believe that. Now Russia will keep pushing him deeper into this war. 2/

Keane: If we can’t go any place we want, when we want, for as long as we want, we don’t have verification.

Any Iran deal must include anywhere, anytime inspections. 1/ Keane: Iran manipulated the IAEA for years. Old protocol let Tehran decide where, when, and how long to inspect.

U.S. and Mossad intelligence must drive inspections. When it pointed to secret sites, enrichment, or centrifuges, Iran said: No deal. That’s not in the protocol. 2/

Fukuyama on Trump's Iran deal: This was not a win. It was a total US capitulation, merely solving a problem that Trump and Netanyahu themselves created by launching the war in the first place.

No regime change. No surrender. The IRGC is more firmly in control than ever before 1/ Fukuyama: No commitment to stop enriching uranium. No commitment to ending support for Hezbollah or Houthis. No agreement on protesters. All kicked down the road into 60-day negotiations.

Trump treated these issues as already conceded. But if so — why weren't they in the MOU? 2/

Petraeus: Ukraine will manufacture 7 million drones this year, doubled from last year. They use 10,000 per day.

Software changes every week or two, hardware every three to four weeks. About 60% of battlefield drones now use fiber optic cable extending 30 to 35 kilometers. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine created an entirely new military branch, an Unmanned Systems Force alongside army, navy, and air force.

This organization is inflicting over 90% of all casualties on Russians on the battlefield daily. No other country has done anything like it. 2/

Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/

Petraeus: There is a death zone of about 35 kilometers on the front lines in Ukraine. You do not drive a vehicle in it.

Commanders cannot visit their troops. There are no trenches, drones fly through trenches. Only survivability positions underground. You burrow in from the side. 1/ Petraeus: All resupply is done by remotely driven vehicles. Medical evacuation, ammunition, food, batteries — everything.

Soldiers come out at night to collect supplies and get back underground before the enemy can react. That is the reality of this war right now. 2/

Browder: If Putin ends this war, the Russian people will say, why did you get us into this mess? What have we accomplished? What have we lost?

They would remove him from power. And if he is removed from power, he ends up dying. Jailed, money taken, hung from a lamp post. 1/ Browder: The Ukrainians cannot give up either. If they do, the Russians occupy their territory, rape the women, kill the men, and kidnap the children.

Both sides have fundamentally different reasons for not stopping — but neither side can afford to stop fighting this war. 2/

Hodges: I was surprised Trump agreed to a fairly strong G7 statement on Ukraine.

He hasn't even been able to say Russia is the aggressor, that they're the bad guy. So I was pleased to see he at least agreed with the other G7 members. But we will see if it holds. 1/ Hodges: What we should be hearing from the president and his entire team is this: it is in the best interest of America and Europe that Ukraine defeats Russia, and that Russia has to live inside their own borders.

That is what is in the best interest of all of us. 2/

Hodges: After 12 years of war, remember, this started in 2014, Russia still controls only about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

The Black Sea Fleet has been defeated. The only thing Russia can still do is get their soldiers killed and murder innocent Ukrainian civilians. 1/ Hodges: Ukraine has figured out the path to victory — the destruction of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure so Russia cannot export to China, India, and other customers.

Without those revenues, it will be very difficult for Russia to continue sustaining this war. 2/

Federov: Of the $60 billion Ramstein target, $40 billion has been announced so far, but only $24 billion is in the delivery schedule.

We need the remaining $20 billion invested in what actually wins: Ukrainian drones, extended-range artillery, and anti-ballistic air defense. 1/ Federov: We are asking our partners to look at the window of opportunity that exists right now. We did our homework.

We continue doing our homework. We just need partners to seize this moment and help us achieve the result — before that window closes on all of us. 2X

Snyder: Russia's 2022 war plan was not a military plan, it was a political plan. It assumed Ukraine is artificial, not real, invented by the West. Within days they expected to be in Kyiv.

Not because of military calculation, because they believed no one would fight back. 1/ Snyder: Putin read intelligence through a worldview where Ukraine isn't real. Agents promised support once troops came. In that framework — invade and everyone sides with you.

All that money paid to agents led to nothing. People in Ukraine were politically Ukrainian. 2/

Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.

Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/ Macron: Every three months, Western and Russian analysts predict Ukraine will finally collapse.

Every three months, they are proven categorically wrong. Ukraine is resisting with stunning innovation and a military production capacity that no one anticipated. 2/

Applebaum: Putin has presented a fake image of Russia to the world. He talks about leading a traditional society

In reality, divorce is very high, abortion is common, very few Russians go to church and less than 5% have ever read a Bible. It's not a traditional culture at all 1/ Applebaum: Part of the European right and the American right have this imaginary Russia they use as a political symbol — not understanding it has no relationship to reality.

Most people who admire Russia haven't even been to Moscow or St. Petersburg, let alone the rest of the country. 2/

Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.

They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/ Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.

Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/

Applebaum: Putin doesn't want to end the war — he wants to win it. Winning still means the same thing it always meant: occupying Ukraine, changing the government, making Ukraine a satellite of Russia.

Donbas is where he'd start, but he's never given up the bigger idea. 1/ Applebaum: The only deal possible with Putin is to convince him he can't win — through military pressure and sanctions. Trump hasn't been willing to do that.

He's actually stopped aiding Ukraine militarily. He has no leverage over Russia and can't convince them of anything. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: The Americans haven't left the negotiations — they've hit a dead end. No ability to break Ukraine, no desire to break Russia.

If Ukrainians keep winning on the battlefield, the question is how fast Americans will want to join the success story. 1/ Kuleba: Zelenskyy's letter to Russians — right move, right timing, right content. Like fertilizer in soil: it changes nothing in the moment.

But it sows seeds of doubt, hesitation, anger, and protest inside Russia. It was an investment in Russia's negative future. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: In Ukraine, there's not a single sane politician who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. Not one.

In Poland, many politicians build their rating on anti-Ukrainian slogans. That's the fundamental difference between our countries. 1/ Kuleba: The PiS party took the Volyn topic and weaponized it for decades. Films were made, historians wrote books, politicians talked about it nonstop.

You can't come out now and say 'let's forget it.' It's already living tissue of Polish society. It won't just go away. 2/

Russia is preparing to import gasoline by sea from Asia. One of the world's largest oil exporters can no longer cover its domestic demand.

Ukrainian drone strikes hit the TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk and the Moscow refinery, suspending processing at both, Reuters. 1/ Fuel shortages span around a dozen Russian regions. Russian-held Crimea and two Siberian regions have confirmed supply problems.

Moscow banned gasoline exports until the end of July to preserve domestic supply during the peak summer driving season. 2/

Prof. Michael Clarke: This [US-Iran deal] is not a peace deal. It is an exchange of memoranda, basically an agreement to keep talking for 60 days under a ceasefire.

Trump is selling it as a breakthrough, but it is only a pathway toward a possible deal. 1/ Clarke: Iran may not sign on Trump’s timetable. Tehran has every reason to delay, embarrass him, and show it is not playing to his agenda.

Iran has a long memory for humiliating U.S. presidents through timing. 2/

Rutte: Ukraine is killing or seriously wounding 30,000–35,000 Russians a month. The front line is stable, Russian advances halted.

Russia has growing problems refilling the gaps in its armed forces, not just to advance, but to maintain the fight in Ukraine. 1/ Rutte: These numbers are staggering. 30,000–35,000 a month means Russia loses in 3 weeks what it lost in Afghanistan in 10 years in the 1980s.

In 5 weeks, Russia loses what America lost in Vietnam in 15 years. That's what Ukraine is inflicting on Russia's military right now. 2/

Ukraine left the G7 with Trump backing oil sanctions on Russia instead of leaning on Kyiv.

Europe helps Trump stabilize his Iran deal and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz.

This is transactional diplomacy — Politico. 1/ G7 leaders arrived in France expecting a fight over Iran, Ukraine and the next NATO summit.

They left more upbeat after Trump signaled readiness to increase pressure on Putin and keep working with allies. 2/