Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pitt...
Jun 29 8 tweets 2 min read
Trump threatened a 100% tariff on any European country that imposes a tax on US tech firms. The tariff would take effect immediately.

It would override every trade deal those countries had already signed with US, including the EU tariff pact reached in May — The Guardian. 1/ Image Trump: Any country that imposes such a tax will be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America.

He said numerous European countries had discussed the tax and some were close to actually doing it. A larger EU-US trade war could follow. 2/
Jun 28 8 tweets 2 min read
A surrounded Ukrainian infantryman amputated his comrade's gangrenous arm with a knife and survived for months on raw pheasants cooked over trench candles.

“Boomer” marked enemy kills with notches on his rifle and stopped counting once he passed a hundred, Ukrainska Pravda.

1/ Image Russians dropped FPV drones with water bottles wrapped in green tape and notes: "Surrender! You're surrounded. Lay down your weapons, walk out with a white flag." Nobody took the offer.

Boomer: "Captivity is simply not an option for me."

2/
Jun 28 5 tweets 2 min read
Kasparov on Putin's biggest miscalculation: He was certain that linguistic commonality would outweigh everything and all his advisors believed Russian-speaking Ukrainians would side with Russia

Linguistic commonality proved far less important than people's sense of freedom 1/ Kasparov: Ukraine and Russia diverged in 1994. Russia chose the Chechen war to prolong power. Ukraine had a peaceful transfer, Kravchuk lost the election and left

That moment was critical. People voted and the president left. Ukrainians understood, power comes from the people 2/
Jun 28 5 tweets 2 min read
Kasparov: My triad since day one of the full-scale war — Ukraine's victory, Russia's defeat, collapse of the empire. That is the only outcome this war can have.

Only the liquidation of Putin. No other options exist. While Putin is there, it is war. Only his liquidation. 1/ Kasparov: An empire cannot retreat. The moment an empire begins retreating — that is its end. This was true for Rome. It was true for every empire. Nothing new here.

It started with Crimea in 2014. It will end with Crimea. Putin and the Russian Empire have merged into one. 2/
Jun 28 13 tweets 3 min read
Syrskyi: Our main objective is to ensure that the enemy loses more than 1,000 personnel killed or wounded every day.

Ukraine’s war aims: hold territory, kill Russians faster than they can be replaced, destroy logistics with mid-range drones, and bleed Russia’s economy with long-range strikes. 1/Image Syrskyi: Russia has lost 183,500 killed or badly wounded troops since January 1.
That number exceeds the 180,500 soldiers Russia is believed to have recruited in the same period. 2/
Jun 28 14 tweets 3 min read
Silicon Valley is part of Ukraine’s deep-strike war.

A $5,000 AI drone funded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is hitting Russian supply vehicles.

Palantir helps plan deep strikes.
Starlink extends drone range, — The Times. 1/ Image The AI drone is called Hornet.
It carries a 5 kg warhead and is built by Perennial Autonomy, a U.S. company founded by Schmidt.
Ukrainian videos show it striking Russian trucks that supply forces. 2/
Jun 28 5 tweets 2 min read
Ex-CIA officer, West: There is no chance of a coup against Putin. Russia is a security state built over 26 years with one purpose, keeping him and his strongmen in power.

300,000 Rosgvardia troops loyal to him. 30,000 elite protective service. All beholden to Putin. 1/ West: Prigozhin was never close. Had he reached Moscow, he'd have hit crack Rosgvardia units whose entire existence — pay, palaces, benefits — depends on Putin.

People say 2023 showed Putin was vulnerable. No, he wasn't. Prigozhin knew he had no chance of overturning him. 2/
Jun 27 6 tweets 3 min read
Former NATO Military Committee Chair Bauer: I tried four times to reach out to Gerasimov [Russia’s top general] through letters. He said he was busy with the “special military operation.”

Later he said: you are part of NATO, NATO is part of the problem, I can’t talk to you.

1/ Bauer: We saw the Russian buildup for invasion of Ukraine start in spring 2021. They left vehicles and ammunition behind. In the end, 195,000 troops were around Ukraine.

We saw vehicles, hospitals, ammunition — then came the blood. I knew within 3 hours when the invasion would start.

2/
Jun 27 5 tweets 2 min read
Browder: I know Putin pretty well. He's not a guy who comes with his tail between his legs. He's ready to commit the most horrific crimes to show he is a brutal, terrible adversary.

Just because he's getting hammered doesn't mean he's going to give up. Not him. 1/ Browder: My prediction — there will never be a peace treaty. Never any negotiation. It will wind down slowly, the way the Korean War wound down.

The Korean War is still technically going on right now. Nobody's firing, they have a demilitarized zone. It's an ongoing war. 2/
Jun 27 5 tweets 2 min read
Browder: Trump has proven himself on Putin side at every step since returning to power. Cut all military aid. Voted with Russia at the UN against Ukrainian resolutions

His Oval Office outburst against Zelenskyy. His demand that Ukraine surrender territory Russia couldn't win 1/ Browder: He mutters ambiguous things, but he hasn't changed his position. Putin hasn't changed. Nothing has changed.

Except Ukraine's position on the battlefield. Ukraine's drones destroying Russian economic capability. Ukraine causing absolute havoc in Crimea. 2/
Jun 27 8 tweets 2 min read
Polish FM Sikorski: Our response to Ukraine naming a unit after UPA heroes was disproportionate.

It personally humiliated Ukraine's president. If President Nawrocki had asked me, I'd have advised differently, Tvn24. 1/ Sikorski: Nawrocki essentially deprived himself of the ability to talk with the president of a country at war.

When Zelenskyy got the soldiers' request, the response should've been: fine, UPA fought the Soviets, but it also killed Poles — pick a better name. TVN24.

2/
Jun 27 8 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine fields Europe's only million-strong, combat-tested army and its fastest-moving drone industry.

The question is whether Europe can credibly defend itself without Ukraine. It cannot, writes Aliona Hlivco in Kyiv Independent. 1/ Image Ukraine has developed Europe’s most combat-experienced military, one of the world’s most innovative defense-tech sectors, and a new doctrine of warfare.

From battlefield drones to AI targeting, Ukraine is pioneering capabilities NATO and EU states are only starting to grasp. 2/
Jun 26 6 tweets 2 min read
Russia may be preparing a provocation in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO, The Guardian.

Putin wants to see whether the US would defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ukraine's strikes reach Moscow and St Petersburg, and Russia wants to hit back somewhere it can. 1/ Image Latvian intelligence: We see indications that Russia prepares military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.

Russia cannot open a second front. It may use hybrid actions — missiles, drones — to signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or face your own problems. 2/
Jun 26 6 tweets 3 min read
Germany’s army chief Freuding: We used to lack information. Now sensors are everywhere — air, ground, space — and the problem is handling the data mass.

That's no longer a human task, too slow. We need a digital backbone to assemble that data and exploit it with AI.

1/ Freuding: Five priorities for the German army: deep strike up to 1,000 km, counter-UAS air defense, electromagnetic warfare, unmanned systems integration, and AI-enabled command and control.

2/
Jun 25 10 tweets 2 min read
Switzerland ordered U.S. Patriots. Then Washington pushed Swiss deliveries back to prioritize Ukraine.

Bern is looking at France, Israel and South Korea for a second long-range air defense system — Bloomberg. 1/ Image The new system should complement 5 U.S.-made Patriot units already ordered.

Bern is not cancelling Patriot. It wants a second supplier so Swiss air defense does not depend on one U.S. delivery queue. 2/
Jun 25 10 tweets 4 min read
Howard Buffett: I've never had friends like the ones I've found in Ukraine. Part of that comes from the danger people live with here every day.

When I say goodbye and say, "See you on my next trip" — the answer is often: "I hope we're still here." –– UkrPravda.

1/ Buffett: The invasion threatened not just Ukraine's food security, but the world's — we saw that within the first year or two.

This is our fight too. You're fighting for freedom, sovereignty, independence — the same values we live by in the United States.

2/
Jun 25 9 tweets 3 min read
Germany no longer trusts that the US will share intelligence. So Berlin is unshackling its spy agency to stand on its own, after Trump briefly cut Ukraine off.

A new law hands the BND its broadest powers in 70 years, putting the service on a war footing against Russia — FT. 1/ Image Merz raised the BND budget 25 percent to €1.51 billion and will send parliament a law granting powers it has never held.

Signals intelligence, AI, the right to hack back, and lighter oversight. Chief Martin Jäger calls the BND Germany's first line of defence. 2/
Jun 25 10 tweets 3 min read
Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg pushed top US officials to turn pro-Ukraine after a sour 2025.

The US has not announced new Patriots or sanctions, and past reversals show it still needs convincing to act — Sam Skove, Foreign Policy. 1/ Image Trump spent 2025 sour on Ukraine. He told Zelenskyy he did not have the cards, then briefly cut off US aid after their tense February meeting.

US negotiators pushed to strip the word aggressor from a draft G-7 statement marking the third anniversary of Russia's invasion. 2/
Jun 24 6 tweets 3 min read
Kasparov: Ukraine's drone revolution is the equivalent of gunpowder ending feudalism.

A townsman trained with an arquebus could take down a knight from 50 meters — and the entire medieval vassal system collapsed. What we're witnessing now is a shift of the same magnitude. 1/ Kasparov: The head of Rheinmetall mockingly said a Ukrainian housewife on a 3D printer can make a drone. He didn't realize he was signing the death warrant for the entire military procurement system

A drone for $1,000 that destroys a $10 million tank, that changes everything. 2/
Jun 24 6 tweets 3 min read
Snyder: Trump thinks everybody is going to roll over when he says stuff. That's true of a lot of people in his party. It's not true of people in the rest of the world.

Nobody in the world thinks Trump is strong. Nobody. I leave the US— nobody thinks he's strong. 1/ Snyder: They think he has power within a set of institutions that can do things. But they don't think he personally is strong or threatening. He's seen as an incredibly weak leader by everyone.

They're polite to him — you have to be. But everybody sees him as colossally weak. 2/
Jun 24 6 tweets 3 min read
Snyder: We've lost this war. I'll make that very clear. We lost it a long time ago.

Americans are very slow to realize we've lost wars, but that doesn't mean we're slow to lose them. We lost this one very quickly. The terms of this peace are basically capitulation. 1/ Snyder: This goes to two issues of American power. First — how incompetent leadership can be. Second — how you get to a situation where radically incompetent leadership is possible.

That second point worries me. We're in a cycle now. And these are wars of whimsy. 2/