Historian Sarah Paine: This is the Russian business model. Say your business is doing well. One of Putin's security-service enforcers comes to your house and says: I want a monthly payment from you.

That's a mafia shakedown, going back in Russian history forever. 1/ Paine: Putin's own circle owns the refineries Ukraine keeps striking, destroying Russian wealth. Putin wants Donbas, he wants Crimea. For what?

Russians need a legal system that lets them build wealth and live decent lives at home, not more territory. 2X

Sikorski: In January 2022, Russia made a brief military move into Kazakhstan to interfere in its succession. I believe China told Russia: get out right now, or we'll cut off trade. Russia obeyed.

It can't prosecute this war without trade with China. 1/ Sikorski: China could actually force Russia to end the war. My guess is the war suits China just fine.

Russia sells China gold, and grows more dependent on it every year. What's not to like about that? 2/

Sikorski: Putin has a couple of cards left. One is mobilization, risky for him politically.

The other — after destroying 80% of Ukraine's electricity and heat capacity, hope another hard winter leaves only nuclear power to survive it. 1/ Sikorski: The relationship between Trump and Zelensky, choppy in the past, seems better now. There are rumors Trump's envoys might visit Kyiv for the first time.

Even some MAGA figures have come around on Ukraine, and Republicans back tougher sanctions on Russia. 2X

Today, a Russian-run agent tried to kill Ihor Obolenskyi, Khartiia’s commander, in Kharkiv.

Yuriy Butusov, journalist: A 69-year-old agent walked up from behind, aimed a Makarov from 3 meters, and pulled the trigger. In panic, he had not chambered a round. 1/
Butusov: The suspect, 69-year-old Kharkiv resident Henadii Parfeniuk, had a spotter watching Obolenskyi and directing him to the place where the commander would appear.

Parfeniuk stayed on the phone with the organizer through earphones while he waited. 2/

Theresa May: It cannot be business as usual with Russia. It wasn’t after the Salisbury attack, and certainly not after what has happened in Ukraine.

People often ask me what Putin is like. Once a KGB man, always a KGB man. 1/ May: Russia and Putin are under significant strain. The economy has been hit hard, and Russia is losing significant numbers of personnel, both killed and wounded.

Ukraine is rapidly improving its ability to fight, and the balance is shifting. 2/

Zelenskyy asked Trump for Starlink access to hit Russian missile launchers inside Russia.

Trump would have to get Musk to lift SpaceX’s ban on using Starlink there.

Ukraine can use Starlink at home, including occupied Crimea, but not inside Russia, The Atlantic. 1/ Trump told Zelenskyy he would think about it and speak with Musk. He gave no timeline and no answer.

Zelenskyy also asked to meet Musk during the U.S. trip. Musk said no. 2/

Kasparov: I would bet a considerable sum that in 10 years Russia will not exist within its current borders. This is not about what I want.

It is going to happen. It is a zombie empire, and a zombie can kill many living souls before it dies. Behind Russia stands China.

1/ Kasparov: The Russian empire is dying. We may see its end in our lifetime. But when a dinosaur falls, you do not want to stand next to it.

Unless Europe acts decisively, Putin may cross NATO borders with drones. He needs a victory narrative, and Ukraine does not offer it.

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War analyst Barros: Ukraine wraps tanks in a bubble of drones and jamming before attacking sectors weakened by strikes, real combined arms.

Russia's own mechanized assaults keep failing. One last week cost them over a company's worth of equipment. 1/ Barros: When Western armor gets hit in these assaults, crews mostly survive with concussions or minor injuries.

Old Soviet-style vehicles usually kill the crew on a hit. That's the case for resupplying armor now. 2X

War analyst Barros: Russia's advance has flatlined, basically net zero.

Ukraine is mid-shaping operations to set up a breakout, and I'm confident we'll see Ukrainian territorial gains to talk about in the coming months. 1/ Barros: The front is genuinely contested for the first time in two years. Russia holds the initiative around Pokrovsk.

Ukraine is reportedly counterattacking near Kharkiv and Donetsk, and holds the initiative in Zaporizhzhia. 2/

Loomer: If I were president and Russia supplied Iran with weapons, I would kill Putin.

Putin is afraid of Trump. He can pretend he is not, but he knows Trump calls the shots. Trump could be far more aggressive with Putin if he wanted. I do not speak for Trump.

1/ Loomer: I’m not saying Trump should kill Putin.

If I were president and a country lied to my face while arming an enemy whose state TV chants “death to America” and “death to Trump,” I would find a way for that leader to die of a sudden heart attack.

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Loomer: I spoke to Trump about two days after interviewing Zelenskyy.

He told me he likes President Zelenskyy very much, but he also likes Vladimir Putin. He says he gets along with both. I do plan to meet with Trump when I get back.

1/ Loomer: Lavrov mocked questions about Russia arming Iran to kill U.S. soldiers.

U.S. officials should say “fuck the Russians” and come to Kyiv. If I survived ballistic missiles here, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff can come too.

2/

A Russian soldier raped 63-year-old Halyna Tyshchenko at gunpoint, then marched her naked into freezing cold.

Russian guards raped captives with bottles and sticks and threatened to inject expanding foam into their anuses. They said they would leave them childless — The WSJ. 1/ Russians shocked captives' genitals and forced them to stand, crouch, and parade naked for hours. Some guards simply enjoyed it, former captives said. 2/

Kasparov: Ukraine's drones now reach 4,000 to 5,000 kilometers, close to stripping Russia of its oil-refining capacity.

That cuts both ways: it pushes Putin to speed up escalation while gutting Russia's offensive capability. 1/ Kasparov: Talk of this war reaching the Baltics has moved from speculation into real policy discussion among Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states themselves.

Look at their actions: rising defense budgets, border fortifications, drone barriers along the frontier. 2/

Kasparov: Putin is betting on Europe's election calendar.

France votes for president in ten months, and a Le Pen win, under 50% likely, would shift the EU fundamentally. Germany's AfD sits in regional governments. 1/ Kasparov: The EU's 21st sanctions package is stuck partly because one private Greek shipping company doesn't want to eat the losses from cutting Russian gas-transport quotas.

A single firm's profit margin is holding up a wartime sanctions measure. 2/

Stubb: Ukraine is now on top militarily, politically and economically, stronger than at any time in this war.

Half of Ukraine’s drones that hit Russia reach their targets. Half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity is damaged. Russia loses 8 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian.

1/ Stubb: For Lindsey, Ukraine was a victory for freedom, for the Europe-U.S. alliance, for NATO, for liberal democracy and for the free world.

He fought hard for his values, and Ukraine was one of the most important battles he fought.

2/

Kellogg: You do not need a Gulf War-style invasion. Hit strategic targets.

Take Kharg Island, 16 miles offshore and central to Iran’s economy. Hold it and say: end this, and we give it back. This is for our kids and grandkids. No nuclear Iran.

1/ Kellogg: Russia and China are probably helping Iran as much as they can. This is no longer a military fight.

It is a political fight, a gut-check moment: are we closing them out or not? Trump has put real effort into negotiations, but now the question is how to finish this.

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Zelenskyy: It’s a pity Crimea is not back on the table, or NOT YET. Land matters: it is our territory, history and homes.

Saving people comes first. Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and diplomacy. Putin wants 500,000 more soldiers this autumn while losing 30,000 a month.

1/ Zelenskyy: Putin said he would occupy Ukraine in two or three days.

Now Ukraine has built a great miltech industry: 500 companies with strong technologies and soldiers holding the front. Putin loses 30,000 soldiers a month. The initiative is no longer in Putin’s hands.

2/

Trump’s administration told Congress it will not finish spending $400mn in approved Ukraine aid until fiscal 2029, the year Trump leaves office.

Reuters: Kyiv is critically low on weapons needed to defend against Russian missile attacks. 1/ Pentagon letter: The funds would be obligated in fiscal 2026, but final delivery is estimated for the year ending Sept. 30, 2029.

Reuters source: Two months after the letter, the money still had not been disbursed or even put on contract. 2/

Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Khmara: Ukraine’s deep strikes and drone campaigns must cost about 2% of the damage they cause Russia.

We can’t go punch for punch with Russia. We have to be asymmetric, interview with Laura Loomer.

1/ Khmara: Don’t send someone where you’re not ready to go yourself.

Soldiers know I would never ask them to take a risk I would not take myself.

2/

Ukraine wants to end its reliance on the US-made Patriot and build a cheaper European system of its own, codenamed Freyja.

Kyiv wants a prototype ready by the first half of 2027, with Russian ballistic missiles now outpacing its dwindling supply of interceptors — Reuters. 1/ Ukraine depends almost entirely on US-made Patriots, the only weapon in its arsenal that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles flying at several times the speed of sound.

Patriot supplies keep slipping on political volatility, low stocks, and a long production cycle. 2/

Rutte: Ukraine is exceeding our expectations. Now Putin must end the bloodbath and come to the negotiating table.

President Trump plays a crucial role. He is the one Putin looks to for leadership, and he is providing that leadership.

1/ Rutte: Trump got Europe and Canada to boost defense spending toward U.S. levels, adding a quarter-trillion dollars.

Presidents since Eisenhower tried and failed to do this. On Ukraine, Trump and Zelenskyy will discuss more pressure on Putin to get him to the table.

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