World wars start the same way: leaders overestimate themselves, underestimate consequences, and launch wars without a clear plan — like Putin.

To stop this, leaders must talk, cooperate, and not fear looking weak. Even small wars can spiral into global ones — The Economist. 1/ In 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II started a war without a plan and misjudged the outcome. It ended in world war.

Putin expected 2–3 days — got years of war and mass losses. Trump expected an easy Iran war — got a global economic shock. 2/

Putin let Assad fall in 2024. He will not let Iran fall.

Assad was a client whose survival depended on outside force. Iran generates costs for America without requiring Russian exposure. From the Kremlin's perspective, it is irreplaceable — Nicole Grajewski, NYT. 1/ The US war in Iran handed Moscow three things at once: higher oil prices, suspended sanctions on Russian crude, and fractured Western attention.

Peskov this week: "The Americans have a lot of other things to deal with, if you know what I mean." 2/

Russia sent 3 submarines to map and probe Britain's undersea cables and pipelines.

Two were secret Gugi seabed-warfare vessels, built to sabotage infrastructure that carries the country's data, gas, and electricity — Tom Sharpe, The Telegraph. 1/ One Akula-class nuclear attack boat. Two specialist subs from Gugi — Russia's classified Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research, separate from the regular navy.

They operated north of the UK for over a month. Mission: map critical underwater infrastructure for potential sabotage. 2/

A Ukrainian heavy bomber drone platoon on Pokrovsk front flies up to 30 sorties a day — delivering ammo to infantry, dropping bombs, mining enemy paths, even running recon.

Russia retaliates with up to 30 guided bombs daily on their positions — ArmyInform. 1/ Price, head sergeant: "We drop a 10kg bomb — the bushes disappear, and so does everyone hiding in them. FPV drones can't always reach them. We can."

"We also hit artillery positions — good targets, they damage our infantry and drone crews badly." 2/

Bolton: JD Vance doesn't want to come back from this meeting [Iran negotiations] as the Neville Chamberlain of this conflict.

The ceasefire with Iran was a mistake. It gives the Iranians a breathing space. It’s not clear to me there's any prospect for progress. 1/ Bolton: I think given Trump's panic that we're very likely at the end of it, although people won't want to admit that. He just wants to be able to declare victory, which he's tried to do several times already erroneously. He'll find another way to declare victory and move on. 2/

Europe’s defense is shifting from Brussels to a Germany-Poland core, with France and the UK supplying nuclear and expeditionary support.

As the US signals Europe must carry primary responsibility by 2027, while Russia could be ready to attack NATO within 5 years, FA. 1/ Germany becomes the backbone of European defense.

Berlin plans $750B in military spending over 4 years, now holds the world’s 4th-largest defense budget, and will set standards as US influence over European security declines. 2/

Ukraine’s top negotiator says a deal with Russia may come soon.

Kyrylo Budanov: “They all understand the war needs to end. I don’t think it will be long.” He says talks are moving toward a settlement despite limited visible progress, Bloomberg. 1/ Budanov, ex-head of military intelligence, leads Ukraine’s negotiating team.

He oversees talks with the US and Russia and manages prisoner exchanges that have already returned hundreds of Ukrainians from captivity. 2/

Ukraine is winning from Trump's Iran war. The US air defenses are too costly ato counter cheap Iranian drones. Ukraine is the only country with 4 years of proven combat experience against. Gulf states now line up to buy Ukrainian weapons — Christian Caryl in FP. 1/ On March 17, Zelenskyy addressed British Parliament and pitched Ukraine as a 21st-century arsenal of democracy. Days later he signed military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, and launched trade talks with four more countries. 2/

Bolton: Marco Rubio should lead the US delegation. That is his job.

Sending the vice president to meet some unknown Iranian raises the stakes unnecessarily, and you do not let your adversary pick who you send to negotiate. 1/ Bolton: Netanyahu says the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon and that is exactly what Trump and Vance agreed to.

It is Iran and Pakistan saying Lebanon should be covered. This is not Israel threatening the ceasefire. It is a disagreement over what was actually agreed. 2/

Applebaum: Orban plays the role of Russia’s puppet in Europe. He blocks EU money for Ukraine, blocks sanctions on Russia and ties his fortunes to Moscow.

Yet JD Vance went to Hungary to present him as the champion of “Western civilization.” 1/ Applebaum: The war in Ukraine is about whether Ukraine gets to exist as a nation. Russia has never given up its war aim, which remains the conquest or control of all Ukraine.

To call this haggling over a few square kilometers is an affront and an outrage. 2/

Applebaum: Orban’s campaign is not even about Hungary. It is about inventing an evil enemy, and that enemy is Ukraine.

All over Budapest there were posters of Zelenskyy and AI videos meant to create a fake world where Ukrainians are somehow the threat. 1/ Applebaum: This is the first election in 16 years where Orban faces a real challenger.

After losing once, he returned to power determined never to lose again, rewrote the system, changed voting rules, and captured the institutions of the state. 2/

How does Ukraine train its soldiers?

A 51-day mandatory course called BZVP — Basic General Military Training: shooting, small unit tactics, combat medicine, drone warfare and ground robotics — Suspilne. 1/ The program was updated last year — more instructors, more focus on drone warfare and technology. Every recruit goes through BZVP before receiving a specialty.

Commander Syrsky announced plans to update with emphasis on technological skills and countering enemy drones. 2/

Hodges: My sense is that Trump trusted his gut instinct.

But this is how mistakes happen: the people handling negotiations were his son-in-law and his real estate friend, not professional diplomats, and sycophantic cabinet officials were never going to push back. 1/ Hodges: For Trump to say nobody anticipated Iran weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is just flat-out not true.

We have war-gamed operations around Hormuz since I was a captain in the 101st Airborne back in the 1980s. That claim is absolutely false. 2/

Keane: The US gave up using military operations as leverage to force a deal with Iran by making a ceasefire.

But Washington still has real leverage: this is a two-week deadline only. If Iran does not accept US conditions in two weeks, combat operations resume. 1/ Keane: I think the Iranians will do what Putin does: delay, extend negotiations, say they are close to a deal and ask for more time.

What they want is as much time as possible - let oil prices recover, let the political system recover, and take pressure off Trump. 2/

Ex-CIA Director, Petraeus: Ukraine will be the most important military industrial complex in the free world.

It is producing cutting-edge unmanned systems in the air, on the ground and at sea. Software changes come in under a week, hardware changes every few weeks. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine has extended the range and accuracy of its deep strikes into Russia. It is hitting refineries, fuel storage and export terminals that fuel the Russian war machine.

It now has a cruise missile with longer range and a bigger warhead than the US cruise missile. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia aims to take Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Druzhkivka by late April, but lacks the forces.

They keep the same goal, just shift the timeline. Losses there are heavy — the situation is very difficult, but our forces are holding.

1/ Zelenskyy: If Russia reduces strikes on our energy, we will reduce strikes on theirs — that’s fair.

But comparing damage day by day makes no sense: overall, Russia has inflicted far more strikes and killed far more Ukrainian civilians.

2X

The US bets a “Trumpian revolution” is coming to Europe — one election cycle behind. Hungary is the test.

Polls show Orbán trailing. If he loses, it hits the far right beyond Hungary. —CNN. 1/ Orbán built an “informational autocracy.”

Elections exist. Violence is minimal. Control comes through narratives — smear campaigns, disinformation, and constant attacks shape what people believe. 2/

Ukraine is building a security axis across the Middle East — from Syria to Saudi Arabia, writes United24.

Zelenskyy: Ukraine is the only country in the world with combat experience in a real 21st-century war. 1/ Since late March Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and Syria. Ukraine signed 10-year defense and energy agreements with several of these countries.

More than 200 Ukrainian specialists were deployed to the Gulf to help defend against Iranian drones. 2/

Applebaum: Trump is listening to Putin. He is getting information about NATO only from his speeches.

He is not looking at American history — which he doesn't know — nor at what's actually happening on the ground.

1/ Applebaum: Trump talks about NATO as if the US didn't form it, and if it is not a member.

Since Trump was elected, the US gave almost no weapons and no money to Ukraine.

The war is now 100% supported by Europe. And Ukrainians now have the world's best drone industry.

2/

Broken nose bones, ear blows rupturing eardrums, electric shocks, drowning, burns, cutting.

“Sometimes after certain stories you just want to shut down. You can’t understand how people could survive this and stay sane,” says doctor Oleksiy Dzhirov — Slidstvo Info. 1/ Dmytro Sirenko returned on March 5, 2026. He goes through procedures every day. One is electromyostimulation — 8 milliamps of current, muscles contract rhythmically. 2/

Hodges: The best way to defend Europe is to make sure Ukraine wins. Ukraine is already helping Gulf states defend themselves against Iranian drones.

And the path to victory is destroying Russia's oil and gas infrastructure until Moscow can no longer pay for this war. 1/ Hodges: I do not think there is a ceasefire at this moment. As long as insurers are not willing to insure vessels moving through Hormuz, the strait is effectively still blocked.

I am glad Trump did not follow through last night. That would have been catastrophic for millions. 2X