“$300-$500 and a trip abroad.”

Moldovan recruit Maxim Roșca was promised easy money and travel — then sent to camps in Bosnia and Serbia to train in drones, incendiary devices and protest tactics, Politico.

Recruits were told instructions would come from Moscow. 1/ In camps, they learned to fly drones, drop explosives, evade police and organize unrest — part of a Russia-backed network targeting operations across Europe. 2/

Today I said on CNN:

There’s a 50–60% chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine this year — not soon, but before the US midterms.

If this window closes, the war could last another 1–2 years, with major consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

1/ Me: Russia is using global distraction to Iran to escalate — yesterday’s super major attack hit during the day, when people were at work and in traffic.

We can’t view these wars in isolation — Russia and Iran coordinate on intelligence, technology, and military.

2/

Save Ukraine, charitable foundation, rescued 1,162 Ukrainian children using "underground railroad”. Russia is doing everything to prevent returns, so they use covert operations.

Founder Mykola Kuleba: "It's like special operation for every child" — CNN. 1/ Rostyslav Lavrov, 16, walked out of Russian naval academy in occupied Crimea October 2023. Save Ukraine volunteers waited to pick him up.

Took two days to reach Ukrainian territory. Russian authorities declared him "missing and wanted." 2/

Oleksandr “Teren” Tarnai served nearly 4 years in an assault company. He fought across Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblast, Donetsk Oblast. On February 13, 2026 an artillery shell killed him. He was 35. 1/ He stayed by the vehicle waiting for a tow truck — not wanting to lose a single second delivering his men to the front. His friend, officer Yaroslav Halas of the 128th Brigade, writes about him on Ukrainska Pravda. 2/

In 2025, Mortar hit his position near Kharkiv. Head trauma, coma, stroke. He couldn't breathe on his own.

Doctors said he might not survive the first night

But he did.

This is a Ukrainian veteran, Bohdan Kobylinskyi (24)

Now he's in rehabilitation to regain what he loved

1/ Bohdan dreamed of being an officer since childhood.

Military Lyceum in Kyiv. Aviation University in Kharkiv. Full-scale war started while he was still a student.

He joined the Border Guard. Commanded a drone unit on the Kharkiv front. All this at 23 years.

2/

Ukraine shot down 140,000 Russian missiles, drones and aircraft over 4 years — including 44,000 Shahed-type drones now hitting US bases in the Middle East.

Ukraine sent 200 advisers to the Gulf.

Trump's response: "The last person we need help from is Zelenskyy" — The Times. 1/ Despite Trump's dismissal, US Central Command requested those Ukrainian advisers now deployed in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia.

"It was short-sighted dismissing what Ukraine can contribute in specialist advice," says RUSI's Justin Bronk. 2/

Ukrainian drones are killing Russians faster than Russia can replace them.

A top Ukrainian drone commander “Madyar”: We need to keep milking this cow, exhausting it beyond its maximum capacity — The Economist.

1/ Ukrainian drones killed or incapacitated at least 8,776 more Russian soldiers than Moscow replaced over winter. Drone units are just 2% of the army, but cause over a third of Russian losses.

2/

Pierre Vandier, NATO Admiral: Ukraine proved Europe cannot sustain industrial-scale war.

Ammunition is being consumed faster than it can be produced. Stockpiles, industry, and planning were built for limited operations not prolonged, high-intensity conflict. 1/ Vandier: Ukraine is expected to produce nearly 10 million drones in a year.

That forces a hard shift. NATO now has to deal with mass production at scale, where affordability and the ability to ramp up matter as much as advanced systems. 2/

Niall Ferguson: If the United States is going to learn anything from what happened in the Black Sea, a lot of damage can be done with some fairly basic sea drones.

The Ukrainians created enough risk that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been knocked out of the war. 1/ Ferguson: If U.S. is going to help the fleet insurers, they're going to have to step up on a much larger scale. The fiscal constraints of the U.S. are real.

Any great power that's spending more on interest payments on its debt than on defense will not be great indefinitely. 2/

“Do you wish to continue serving in the Russian Federation?” — “Why the fuck would I?”
That was 18-year-old cadet Dmytro Klymovych answering the Russian officer who seized their academy in Sevastopol. 1/ He was one of the cadets who sang the Ukrainian anthem while Russians raised their flag. During the full-scale invasion Russians took him prisoner — beating him day and night. Now he is home, making up for lost time with his son — Hromadske. 2/

“We must face reality — the West has split.”

Finland’s President Stubb: “Salvage what you can” of the trans-Atlantic alliance as Trump’s policies fracture relations with Europe and weaken pressure on Russia, Telegraph. 1/ Stubb: “I’m more pessimistic now, in that sense, more realistic.”

Stubb admits that Trump’s actions — tariffs, easing Russia sanctions, and acting without allies — have shifted the US policy away from Europe. 2/

A Russian soldier surrendered via Telegram instead of fighting.

POW: I wrote to the “I Want to Live” hotline. A bot took my details and passport. I sent my location. Then they gave a password, passed me to another operator, and connected me with someone on the ground.

1/ POW: I came from conscription, spent 6–7 months without work. After a fight in the city, four people filed charges.

I got 3 years in a correctional facility and a $8,000 fine. I signed a contract to clear it and debts, but nothing was cleared. They sent me to assault units.

2/

Russian commanders treat their own soldiers like disposable bodies.

They force men to fight each other to death, beat and electrocute them, strip them naked and tie them to trees in freezing cold.

Wounded men on crutches go straight back into assaults – Daily Mail. 1/ Videos show commanders chaining soldiers by the neck inside small boxes and mocking them with food

One man gets a plate thrown at his head while a commander pours water over him and tells him he will die there. Others get forced to crawl through mud while being kicked and hit 2/

Pomerantsev: We’re approaching a moment where discussion about Russia is not about countering disinformation to defend democracy.

But about how to “fuck Russia up,” because in a war you need to to beat the psychological daylight out of our enemy, not just defend democracy. 1/ Pomerantsev: Russia is trying to psych us out.

They’re hitting us with bombardments and then with loads of propaganda to make us feel unsettled and concerned and scared.

The best psychological defense teaches you how to work with your own emotions. 2X

The Economist: after four years of solidarity, Ukraine and Europe are openly fighting. Both sides accused each other of “blackmail.”

In January the Druzhba pipeline was damaged. Zelenskyy blamed Russia and refused to fix it — arguing oil revenues fund the Kremlin’s war. 1/ Orban, running a re-election campaign, used the dispute to block the finalization of the €90bn EU loan to Ukraine. 2/

Ukrainian soldier Mykyta Semenov on Russian captivity:

"Russian: What unit? Semenov: Azov.

Russian: This is the end for you. Your country abandoned you. Look where they brought you. You will never know. You’ll die here. But you have a choice: fight for us." 1/ Semenov: I was captured in May 2022 in Mariupol.

In Olenivka, we started starving. I lost 25 kg. What they gave us to eat — dogs wouldn’t eat, maybe only pigs would. The cereal didn’t digest. Fish head bones. Pasta with rotten green fish. 2/

Russia’s goal is simple: make civilian life unbearable until Ukrainians want to surrender.

This winter alone — 19,000 drones and 738 ballistic missiles. Cost to Russia: roughly $465 million in February alone, writes United24. 1/ Russia produces around 2,700 Geran drones per month at $35,000 each and roughly 150 missiles per month at $1 million each. 2/

Ukraine’s ballistic missile industry is being reborn.

A film producer, an architect, and an IT engineer founded Fire Point in 2022. Today their weapons strike targets 3000 km deep inside Russia — United24. 1/ FP-1 accounts for 59% of Ukrainian long-range strike missions and 54% of confirmed hits. Range: 1,600 km.

Targets: oil refineries in Saratov, Novokuibyshevsk and Volgograd. 2/

US Gen. Grynkewich: Russia invaded Ukraine thinking it would be a two-week war. The hardest part of a short two-week war is the first couple of years.

Putin has learned that because of the problems he's had with fielding a modern and effective force. 1/ Grynkewich: Putin as an autocrat is able to control the information environment in Russia.

So the Russian people are probably not hearing all of the trials and tribulations that their forces are facing or understanding the high casualty rates of the Russian forces. 2/

Trump is considering ending Iran war without reopening Strait of Hormuz.

Would leave other countries to clean up hugely consequential economic quagmire he created. Extraordinary step to withdraw without solving major crisis driving gas prices up at home — Axios. 1/ Trump on Truth Social: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts.

Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded by other Nations who use it — United States does not. If asked, we will help, but it's not necessary." 2/

Russian intelligence proposed staging a fake assassination attempt on Viktor Orban to tilt Hungary’s election — WP.

The goal is to shift the campaign from economic dissatisfaction to fear, security, and stability — and mobilize voters emotionally. 1/ The proposal comes as Orban is trailing over 52% dissatisfied, including rural voters where his party is usually strong.

For Moscow, the stakes are high — Orban has helped block key EU policies and serves as a bridge to U.S. conservatives. 2/