Krzysztof Bosak, a far-right deputy speaker of Poland’s parliament, says the government secretly transferred Patriot missiles to Ukraine in March.

Poland’s Defence Ministry says the list of military aid is classified — European Pravda. 1/ Bosak says the missiles were bought from the U.S. for Poland’s own layered air defense system.

The interceptors are needed for Poland’s defense against Russian Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. 2/

Ukraine publicly displayed its US-supplied Harpoon coastal defense missile system for the first time since receiving it in 2022.

The missile can strike maritime targets at roughly 70–130 nautical miles, or 130–240 km, depending on the version, United24 Media. 1/ Ukraine showed the Harpoon launcher during Zelenskyy’s visit to Odesa region on July 4.

The Navy also presented domestically produced Neptune missiles, unmanned systems and torpedo weapons as part of a meeting on security in southern Ukraine. 2/

German tanks are returning to a region they once razed.

For the first time since the Cold War, Germany is permanently deploying military units abroad: the 45th Panzer Brigade in Lithuania, as American forces in the region dwindle, The Economist. 1/ The 45th Brigade trained along Lithuania’s border with Belarus to be ready to fight tonight to defend Vilnius and hold the Suwalki corridor.

It will grow from 1,600 soldiers to around 5,000 by the end of 2027, with armour, artillery, drones and air defence. 2/

Russia may announce a new mobilization after September's State Duma elections. United Russia needs a strong result to justify it — Moscow Times.

The party's support sits at 34% — down from 40% in 2022. Navalny's foundation estimates real support at just 16%.

1/ For the first time, residents of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories vote in the elections. Electronic voting, criticized as a tool for rigging, approved in 33 regions covering 48 million voters.

Regional officials reportedly instructed to keep turnout at around 50%.

2/

"For a drone, it makes no difference whether it's a refinery, a port, or the Kremlin." — Ray, commander of Ukraine's Kairos Battalion, which has been bombing Moscow for two weeks.

The unit has never spoken to the media before. — The Times.

1/ Kairos spent two months systematically destroying Russian air defenses on the approach to Moscow before striking the city.

"We've been operating as a battalion for about 200 days, and hit approximately 200 targets in this period," Ray says.

2/

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]:

Three large groups have formed in Russian society: 15% westernizers, 15% war beneficiaries who think Putin is not aggressive enough, and 70% who want the war to stop but on their terms, meaning Russia has not lost. 1/ Khodorkovsky: For Putin, Russian society is the foundation of his power over the security structures.
If society stops supporting him, his only support will be the secret services, and he will become dependent on them. He does not want this. 2/

Russia made 144 UAV sorties into European airspace over 19 months across more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland.

The campaign mapped NATO air-defense gaps, often near ports, airports, energy sites and military bases — FT. 1/ The campaign had no collective allied response.

Governments treated drone sightings as separate national incidents.

Some were reluctant to accuse Russia directly, even when the pattern pointed to coordinated activity. 2/

Ukraine Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi: Loans and guarantees to Ukraine’s defense industry in 2025 exceeded $1.3bn.

In May, 23 banks covering 75% of Ukraine’s banking assets signed a memorandum on lending support to the defense sector, Kyiv Independent. 1/ Pyshnyi: Ukraine created a unique and very favorable system for the defense sector. State support issued 148 loans worth over $202mn by early May.

The defense sector now needs maximum support. 2/

Ukraine is proposing a roadmap to stabilize relations with Poland after a dispute over historical memory.

Proposal has three tracks: foreign ministry consultations, meetings between WWII historians, and religious leaders joining bilateral dialogue — United24. 1/ The proposal was presented by FM Andrii Sybiha to Poland’s Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw.
Kyiv’s message — the dispute should be handled through institutions, not public escalation, and Moscow should not benefit from tension between allies. 2/

Five towns hold the Donbas. Ukraine has turned them into anti-drone net tunnels and kill zones Russia has battered for years.

This fortress belt is the 10% of the Donbas Russia demands in any peace deal. Losing it opens the lowlands to Dnipro, Kharkiv and Kyiv — The Guardian.1/ Lyman sits at the northern edge of the belt. Moscow's forces push daily to retake the city Ukraine drove them out of in the 2022 counteroffensive.

Spent fibre-optic cable from years of drone fighting now hangs so thickly over the buildings that fresh drones tangle in it. 2/

Firepoint co-founder Shtilierman: Ukraine does not need 300 km ballistic missiles. Moscow is not 300 km from our border.

Russia is a monocentric state, with power concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That is why Ukraine is developing longer-range ballistic capabilities. 1/ Shtilierman: We produce Flamingo missiles as much as we are ordered to produce.

The capacity is there. The bottleneck is bureaucracy around engine exports in Europe and the U.S.

2/

Russian intelligence started tracking Boris Johnson while he was an Oxford student in the 1980s.

The Kremlin called him "likeable but not trustworthy," said he had "no principles" and "could be easily manipulated," The Telegraph. 1/ Russian officers ruled out recruiting Johnson.

Their conclusion: "A manic self-promoter such as Johnson can't really be taken seriously as a candidate for any deep and lasting intelligence connection." 2/

Russia destroyed a Ukrainian Red Cross humanitarian warehouse in a massive overnight attack on Kyiv on July 2.

The strike caused over $1.76mn in damage to equipment and emergency supplies, United24. 1/ Russia launched 74 missiles and nearly 500 drones during the assault. It damaged about 100 residential buildings and caused direct hits on at least 20 others.

Air defense intercepted 4 ballistic missiles, 32 of 34 Kh-101s, 8 Kalibrs, 4 Kh-59/69s and 476 drones. 2/

Kasparov: Putin is a monster that feeds on blood. He has crossed every red line.

The death toll is already in the millions. His bunker is protected. He considers Europeans impotent. What will stop him? 1/ Kasparov: Ukrainian strikes will become more effective. Russia's air defense resources are limited. Problems in Russia will keep growing.

If this continues, Putin won't last long. Russia's system is corrupt from top to bottom and isn't prepared for serious challenges. 2/

Russia is planning an attack on Poland to test NATO, US warns.

The scenarios include missile and drone strikes on critical infrastructure or Russian troops crossing the border from Kaliningrad or Belarus, The Telegraph. 1/ Russian troops could cross into Poland and claim they entered by mistake because of GPS failure.

Another cover story: a mission to recover a disabled military helicopter. 2/

For four years, Putin tried to shield Russians from the war through silence and euphemisms.

Now drones hit Moscow, fuel shortages affect at least 56 regions.

Whatever officials do, they still avoid saying what is happening, — NYT. 1/ The war is still officially a Special Military Operation.

Fuel shortages are blamed on “unscheduled maintenance at refineries.”

Military spending becomes “structural transformation of the economy.” Language is used as a shield. 2/

Fedorov: During the latest mass attack on Kyiv, Ukraine intercepted about 95% of Shaheds — around 600 were launched.

Against cruise missiles, the interception rate can also reach 80–90% when Ukraine has enough F-16s and enough missiles to cover the whole country.

1/ Fedorov: Ukraine is investing heavily in cheap missiles to prepare for winter and bad weather, when interceptor drones face limits.

During the main mass attack, about 75% of Shaheds were intercepted by interceptor drones.

2/

Putin spent 10 minutes naming streets in Donetsk villages in a state TV interview — and described an encirclement near Rubtsi that no reliable source confirms exists.

There is no river called Stary Oskol in that region. — Simon Shuster, The Atlantic.

1/ 81% of Russians want the war to end "as early as tomorrow."

Those who want to fight until victory dropped to 9% — the lowest ever recorded by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia across 10 rounds of polling since 2022.

2/

Zelenskyy: We are thankful to the American team for transfer of anti ballistic missiles, but for today it is too slow.

We don’t know what Putin will do. We are asking President Trump and his team: we don’t need too many words. You see what does it mean when the packages come? 1/ Zelenskyy: Europe, the United States and many other countries live from election to election. That is understandable. But please, the priority must be saving lives. 2/

Russians feel the war’s hardships as Ukraine pummels Crimea — WSJ.

For more than four years, Putin tried to keep most Russians away from the costs of war.

Ukrainian drones hit power and fuel sites. Gasoline sells for $25 a gallon on black market. 1/ Ukraine calls the campaign “long-range sanctions.”
The target is the peninsula Russia annexed in 2014 and presented as a showcase of Putin’s imperial project.
The effect is direct: fuel shortages, power cuts, transport disruption and a falling tourist season. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia designed this strike to cause maximum damage: ballistic missiles, waves of Shaheds and other drones, dozens of cruise missiles.

Ukraine shot down 48 missiles and 476 drones overnight, but not all. We need more Patriots and anti-ballistic systems.

1/ Zelenskyy: Air defense must be a key result of the NATO summit. Europe must have enough capacity to defend itself from every threat, including Russian ballistic missiles.

We have long discussed licenses for Patriot production with the U.S. administration.

2/