A German wargame claims Russia could break NATO with just 15,000 troops — by exploiting hesitation.

Ben Hodges for Telegraph: A small Russian force could break NATO due to Western paralysis. The core fix is Ukraine. 1/ The scenario: Oct 2026. Russia stages a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad, moves into the Suwałki Corridor, seizes Marijampolė.

US stays out. Poland mobilises but hesitates. Germany dithers. Baltics get cut off. NATO credibility collapses — on paper. 2/

Bloomberg: Russia is short nearly 10-11 mln workers and is now recruiting labor from India and Sri Lanka to keep its economy running as war and demographics drain the workforce. 1/ For decades, Russia relied on migrants from Central Asia. That model is breaking down as the Ukraine war, emigration, and aging push the country into its deepest labor crisis in years. 2/

When their father was taken POW, the children were 1 meter tall. Today, the son is 1.70 meters.

Eskender broke through 2 encirclements from Mariupol, was captured, and sentenced to 30 years in Russia. Haven’t seen family since 2022.

Hromadske about returned Ukrainian POWs. 1/ Ivan traveled to every exchange for 3 years. Today he found out that his son had finally been released. For 3 years, his father was called the chief optimist.

Galina, mother: “His blood pressure is 160 over 90. They already gave me something at the hospital...” 2/

Putin isn’t really winning. Europe needs to realize that and hit at Russia's weaknesses.

FT: Putin’s victory narrative is loud but brittle. Behind claims of momentum in Ukraine is Russian system under strain. Europe needs to expose the gaps — and project their own power. 1/ Putin claims Russia has the “strategic initiative,” sanctions-proof stability, and inevitable control of Donbas.

US voices echo it: JD Vance predicts a Russian win, Trump called Putin’s army “invincible”. 2/

“I saw kids being shot, women, old people. I saw many of them shot in the head, blood pouring onto the streets,” says Ali.

He was a witness to how Iranian authorities burned Rasht’s grand bazaar and opened fire on civilians — The Guardian. 1/ On Thursday, 8 January, Iran went dark. The government cut the internet, phone calls, and external communications nationwide as protests erupted in over 200 cities. That night, the crackdown began. 2/

The Times: “Kill chains” are becoming the future of war, and humans are turning into the slowest part of the system.

AI is now compressing detection, decision, and strike into seconds, reshaping how wars are fought. 1/ The war in Ukraine turned AI-assisted warfare into practice. Tens of thousands of sensors now flood headquarters with data that no human staff can process fast enough.

Speed has become decisive. 2/

We don’t know if NATO will exist in the future — Bert Koenders, former Dutch Foreign Minister for EP.

Ukraine's accession to the EU has become incredibly important. This is a matter of security for the whole of Europe.

We must learn to act without the US. 1/ Koenders: Europe should no longer think of Ukraine as a buffer state.

We are no longer living in a state of peace. Russia is waging a hybrid war against Europe. 2/

Russia’s war economy has stalled.

In 2026, GDP growth fell below 1% after oil revenues dropped, taxes rose, and labor shortages intensified. Russia can finance the war in 2026-27 through higher taxes, money printing, asset sales, and nationalization — The Guardian. 1/ Oil revenues fell. Fossil fuels funded 40% of Russia’s federal budget in 2022.

By 2025, the share dropped to 25%. Ural oil prices fell from $90 per barrel in early 2022 to $50 by late 2025. 2/

Kyiv is counting down days to spring.

In a bar without electricity, a chalkboard reads: “Days until spring: 24.” Candles replace lights as Russian strikes leave neighborhoods without heat and power, FT. 1/ PM Yulia Svyrydenko: This is Ukraine’s hardest winter of the war.

Nightly missile and drone attacks have left millions without heat or electricity for days or weeks. Since Jan 1, Russia has hit Ukraine’s energy sector 217 times. 2/

Zelenskyy: The US gave Ukraine and Russia a deadline to reach a ceasfire by June.

The US has proposed that Ukraine and Russia meet in Miami in a week. Ukraine has agreed.

Ukraine will not leave Donbas.

1/ Zelenskyy: The US has proposed to create of a free economic zone in Donetsk Oblast. But we will need fair and reliable rules.

The most reliable position is still “stay where we are.”

2/

Ukraine forced Starlink to cut off Russian troops.

After Kyiv’s request, SpaceX blocked unregistered terminals, disrupting Russian frontline communications and drone control. Russian military bloggers report widespread outages — NYT 1/ Russia had used smuggled Starlink terminals for years.

Recently, Russian forces began mounting Starlink on drones, improving targeting and reducing vulnerability to jamming. 2/

He was beaten with batons, his legs were broken, he was assaulted during so-called “medical treatment,” abused for speaking Polish, denied care, and held until he lost consciousness and died.

Russian guards laughed that they had caught a Pole, reports Slidstvo Info 1/ His name was Krzysztof Galos, a 55-year-old Polish citizen. He was a civilian. He had no ties to the military. Poland is not at war with Russia. He was tortured to death in Russia’s SIZO-2 detention center in Taganrog. 2/

A GRU general and Ukraine-born traitor, Vladimir Alekseyev, was shot in Moscow.

Alekseyev helped plan strikes on Ukraine, lied to Azovstal POWs and his shooting now threatens Russia–Ukraine peace talks. — Ukrainska Pravda 1/ Vladimir Alekseyev, born 1961 in Vinnytsia region, Ukraine, defected to Russia and rose to first deputy chief of the GRU in 2011.

On Feb. 6, an attacker shot him several times in the back at a residential building on Volokolamsk Highway, Moscow.

2/

On the first day, they killed 6–7 Russian infantry soldiers. Over the next few days, they wiped out an entire platoon.

This is the story of Andrii “Hrom” Ishchenko from the Khartiia Brigade, one of the first Ukrainian officers to enter Kupiansk — Hromadske. 1/ Hrom is 30 years old. Nearly a third of his life has been spent at war.

By training, he is a veterinary canine handler. Before 2022, he trained dogs. After Russia’s full-scale invasion, he joined the infantry. 2/

“If the power goes out, it’s a deadly risk for patients.”

After Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine’s Heart Institute spent up to 10 hours without electricity, operating on generators during a blackout — Hromadske. 1/ The Heart Institute treats 170 patients and employs over 1,000 staff.

ICUs and operating rooms depend on electricity for ventilators, ECMO, monitors, labs, and blood storage. Any outage puts patients at immediate risk. 2/

Ukrainian POWs were forced to exhume civilians killed by Russia in Mariupol.

Marine Serhii Hrytsiv: “Over four weeks, we dug up around 800 civilian bodies.” Russia made prisoners clean up the crime scene — then blamed them for it, reports. 1/ Slidstvo.Info Every morning at 4 am, POWs were taken from Olenivka colony to ruined Mariupol.

Serhii Hrytsiv: “They divided us into groups of 5 and drove us into the city.” They dug in courtyards, gardens, mass graves, under collapsed homes. 2/

Plan A for Ukraine: foreign troops on the ground, air patrols, and naval presence, with the United States as a backstop.

Plan B: an 800,000-strong Ukrainian army.

Politico argues that with a neighbor like Russia, Ukraine must rely primarily on itself to preserve peace. 1/ Ukraine no longer treats political security guarantees as a sufficient foundation for survival.

Decades of broken promises—from the 1994 nuclear disarmament pledges onward—have taught Kyiv that written assurances can fail at the decisive moment. 2/

Russian occupation makes young Ukrainian men illegal on their own land: join Russia’s army, or go to prison. So they run.

In 2024 alone, Russia drafted 5,500 men from Crimea. Since 2015, it has drafted 50,000+ Crimean residents into the Russian army. — Hromadske.

1/ Vasyl, 20, from Crimea got his first draft notice at 18 — at work.

He hid, moved across Russia, and fled through Belarus to Ukraine in Dec. 2025 — without documents.

2/

For Putin, the end of the war would be a referendum on his presidency. He fears that verdict.

That is why he keeps sending soldiers into the grinder — to preserve the appearance of control and momentum, writes Michael Kimmage and Hanna Norte in FA. 1/ On the eve of invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia held a workable global position.

It had strong ties with China, deep economic links with Europe, and a “functioning” relationship with the United States.

Russia was flexible, connected, and not isolated. 2/

Kyrylo Veres, commander of Ukraine’s K2 unmanned systems brigade: Reaching 50,000 confirmed enemy losses per month is realistic.

Unconfirmed can become near 80,000.

When you add unverified losses from infantry, and artillery, the real number is much higher.

1/ Kyrylo Veres: In the army, every specialist has a cost. As cynical as it sounds.

Training an FPV drone pilot costs about 300 times more than training an infantryman.

2/

Sikorski: Europe has already contributed much more to sustaining Ukraine [than US]. We’ve spent roughly €200B and extended €90B for the next two years.

The US is providing some intelligence and diplomacy. Success comes only when Putin recalculates the cost. 1/ Sikorski: Putin seems to be demanding even territories that he can't conquer. And in Europe, we think that the time of European colonialism should be over. 2/