Kasparov: Ukraine performed a historical miracle.

The coming funeral of the Russian Empire, which I believe is not far away, is the result of the heroism of the Ukrainian people and, yes, of Zelenskyy’s political leadership. 1/ Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war. It is an imperial war, the logical continuation of Russian imperial history.

Without Ukraine there is no Russian Empire, and Putin understands that with his imperial sixth sense. 2/

Kasparov: The attack on Kyiv looks less like a demonstration of strength than an outlet for Putin’s anger. The situation is turning against him.

Even inside his information vacuum, reality is breaking through: the war is no longer moving west, it is moving east. 1/ Kasparov: Putin’s trip to China was likely unpleasant. The Power of Siberia 2 deal was not signed.

That suggests Xi is diversifying and may be developing doubts about Putin’s ability not only to control the situation, but to hold on at all. 2/

Fukuyama: Ukrainians have systematically taken out Russian air defenses in Crimea with medium range drones and missiles. The peninsula depends on a narrow land route through the isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine now reportedly controls the isthmus from the air and has repeatedly attacked the bridge. 1/ Fukuyama: It would not be surprising if Russia decided within the next year that its position in Crimea was untenable and began withdrawing forces, just as it has already withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet. Such a withdrawal would be an enormous political defeat for Putin. 2X

That’s quite clear now that Europe is preparing for a future without the US. Where America is no longer the center of the Western alliance.

Trump spent years demanding loyalty from allies. Instead, Europe is slowly building systems designed to function without Washington, FP. 1/ At first, European leaders tried to keep Trump happy.

UK PM Starmer offered an unprecedented second state visit. NATO Chief Rutte called Trump “daddy.” European governments boosted defense spending and increased support for Ukraine. 2/

Ukraine received 16 Swedish Gripen fighters and wants to purchase 20 more of the latest model by 2030.

They're cheaper to operate than F-16s, can take off from a regular road and carry guided bombs — Suspilne. 1/ Saab and Volvo developed the Gripen in the 1980s for the Swedish military. Sweden lived next to the USSR and understood that fixed infrastructure would be the first target. 2/

Kasparov: Europe is still not ready to say the magic formula: Russia must lose, Ukraine must win.

But the war cannot end while Putin is in power, because under Putin war has become the way the entire Russian state apparatus exists. 1/ Kasparov: Negotiations with Putin mean selling part of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory to buy time for calm preparation before Putin’s next aggression.

Nothing else is happening here. Russia’s whole system is aimed at continuing the war. 2/

Browder: I became Russia’s largest foreign investor, with $4.5B under management.

Then I found the companies I owned were being robbed blind by oligarchs. We exposed it through the FT and WSJ and became a major headache for Putin’s regime. 1/ Browder: After Russia expelled me, we sold everything and paid $230M in taxes.

Criminals and officials then stole that money from the Russian state. Sergei Magnitsky discovered it, exposed it, was arrested, tortured for 358 days and killed at 37. 2/

Russia's May 24 strike drained Ukrainian Patriot stocks. Zelenskyy went straight to Trump and Congress for resupply. A US senator flew to Kyiv and said yes.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal: It is literally about saving lives, — United24. 1/ Blumenthal framed the response as continuity. The US has armed Ukraine for three years of full-scale war, and a Patriot resupply fits the same pattern.
Blumenthal: "I hope and expect America will respond positively. We have already done it before. We must do it again." 2/

Chief of Estonian Intelligence, Kaupo Rosin: Pressure is mounting inside Russia.

There is no real battlefield success despite the extremely high cost, economic and financial problems are mounting, and the internal mood is changing. 1/ Rosin: Time is absolutely not on Putin’s side, if the West keeps the current trajectory on sanctions and support for Ukraine.

The West must keep giving Ukraine everything needed, and Ukraine should continue long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. 2/

Sen. Blumenthal: America is not leaving Ukraine. Our diplomats are here to stay, and we stand behind Ukraine as we have from the outset.

We will not be cowed by Russian threats or bullying — and neither should the people of Ukraine in any way. 1/ Blumenthal: Russia is not winning. Ukraine will prevail if it has the means to finish the job: long-range attack, artillery, HIMARS, ATACMS, tanks, F-16s and munitions.

Most urgent now is air defense, because Putin’s cruelty keeps escalating. 2/

Bolton: Ukraine now has the best army in Europe, better than any NATO member there except the U.S.

It has enormous combat experience and has developed drone and counter-drone technology that America should use, learn from, and take advantage of. 1/ Bolton: Ukrainians have brought Russia to a halt. Putin does not get serious about negotiations until Russian forces are really moving backward.

If you want to defeat aggression and tell others it is not in their interest, Ukraine is the model. 2/

Bolton: Trump is driven mainly by gasoline prices, not any coherent analysis of U.S. strategic interests.

Iran poses nuclear, terrorist and world-economy extortion threats — and the only real answer is eliminating the regime. If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will do. 1/ Bolton: Open the Strait militarily, keep the blockade on Iran, do not let Iranian oil out, and get as much Arab oil into global markets as possible.

That would show the U.S. can secure commerce, ease the threat to the world economy, and keep starving Iran. 2/

Kellogg: Trump may not have anyone in Iran who can make hard decisions.

Khamenei is supposed to decide, but we have not seen him and do not know if he is alive or coherent. So who do you really talk to when the hard decisions are left to him? 1/ Kellogg: Iran is following its Mosaic plan: decentralizing the Revolutionary Guards so each unit commands its own area.

That is why boats are being sent into the Gulf. Trump is in their heads, but the regime still thinks it is winning — which is nuts. 2/

Bolton: Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia and destroy much of the Black Sea Fleet caught Moscow totally unprepared.

When Russians hear targets are hit near Moscow and at deep military bases, they see the war is not going according to plan. 1/ Bolton: Russia may be trying to justify new strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, but the battlefield is at least at a standstill — and Ukraine is beginning to make small territorial gains.

It may be Russian forces that are about to crack, not Ukraine’s. 2/

Moscow wants Europe and U.S. to think it can escalate war further — NYT.
Russia is threatening Kyiv with “sustained strikes” because the battlefield is slowing against them.

[Ukrainian drones hit oil infrastructure and Russian cities daily. Drones turns every advance into a meat grinder] 1/ Russia followed its biggest strikes on Kyiv with warnings about attacks on “decision-making centers” and calls for diplomats to leave the city — psychological warfare. 2/

Zelenskyy: Gripen fighters with Meteor missiles — 200km+ range.

We believe we can push Russian aircraft back far enough to stop their mass use of guided bombs against us.

1/ Zelenskyy: First Gripens arrive in 10 months. Pilots start training now.

The challenge: our pilots are already flying combat missions in Ukrainian skies. We need to pull them out to train — and that's never easy during a war.

2/

UK spy chief Anne Keast-Butler: Almost half a million Russian soldiers have now been killed since the conflict began.

Russian forces are now going backwards on the battlefield for the first time since late 2022, — The Guardian. 1/ The estimate from British intelligence is even higher than recent calculations by Meduza and Mediazona, which estimated around 352,000 Russian deaths using probate records. 2/

Former CIA director Burns: Putin always believed Russia couldn't be a great power without controlling Ukraine.

When I met him before the invasion, he was utterly unapologetic. No denial. His message was: "So, what are you going to do about it?"

1/ Burns: The FSB — Russia's domestic security service — led the pre-invasion planning for Ukraine.

That's telling. For Putin and the Russian elite, Ukraine was never a foreign policy question. It was a domestic one.

2/

Commander of NATO’s Allied Rapid Reaction Corps Elviss: Russian soldiers don't scare me pound for pound against a Western army.

What scares me is that they've been living this war for four years. Battle-hardened, battle-tested — that's the threat.

1/ Elviss: Russia is our principal adversary. Since February 2022, their forces learned fast — they're significantly more lethal than they were and battle-hardened after four years of war. A formidable foe.

2/

Denys Prokopenko, 1st Azov Corps commander: Russia loses because its army is built for political control, not battlefield effectiveness.

Russians sacrifice enormous numbers of soldiers to please their leadership, even when it was doomed from the start — Ukrainska Pravda.

1/ Prokopenko: Ukraine wins because its army is built on trust and initiative.

HQ defines the goal and purpose. How to achieve it stays with the officers on the ground, who have the best picture of the battlefield. High trust, high initiative. The unit becomes a single organism.
2/

Bolton: Iran is using negotiations to prove it controls the Strait of Hormuz, that everyone must bargain with Tehran before Arab oil and cargoes leave the Gulf.

If Iran can turn Hormuz on and off like a light switch, the precedent is disastrous. 1/ Bolton: Tehran is desperately playing for time.

If Iran gets control of the Strait and resumes oil revenues, it will rebuild the Quds Force, militias, nuclear program, missile program and drone program — then threaten the Gulf even more. 2/