Russia poured $11.8B into occupied Ukrainian territories in 2024–2026 — 3x more than the combined development funds for 20 other Russian regions — Reuters.

The money is permanently building occupied Ukraine into Russia — ahead of any peace deal. 1/ Reuters analyzed thousands of satellite images using a machine-learning model.

Result: 2,500+ km of railroads, highways and roads newly built or upgraded across occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson since 2022. 2/

John Foreman: The factors that drove Putin to war have not been settled. Russia is not a great power.

Putin’s legacy is not secure. NATO expanded. Americans are still in Europe. Europe and NATO need to provide security guarantees to Ukraine to prevent Russia from reattacking. 1/ Foreman: American sanctions and pressure were having a serious effect on the Russian economy in December, January, February.

Then the Iran war happens, the pressure’s off, and there’s war fatigue in the West — Ukraine becomes “yesterday’s news,” mentioned mainly after missile attacks. 2/

Zelenskyy: I signed a defense deal with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

We reached an important agreement between the defense ministries of Ukraine and Saudi Arabia on defense cooperation.

We are ready to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to better protect lives. 1/ Zelenskyy: The agreement lays the foundation for future contracts, technological cooperation, investment, and strengthens Ukraine’s international role as a security provider.

We are ready to share our expertise and systems with Saudi Arabia. 2/

US senators move to sanction Hungary over blocking Ukraine aid.

A bipartisan bill from Shaheen and Tillis would target Hungarian officials with asset freezes and visa bans for obstructing support to Kyiv and buying Russian energy — as Orbán holds up a €90B EU loan, FT. 1/
The “Block Putin Act” is led by Dem. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Rep. Sen. Thom Tillis.

It would force Trump to sanction officials tied to Russian oil and gas deals and efforts to block Ukraine support. 2/

Iran may be winning the war despite losing battles.

Tehran's goal is to show US and Israel cost of confronting Iran is militarily, economically and politically unsustainable. Strategy is survive and exhaust — Foreign Affairs. 1/ Iran has been preparing for this war for nearly 40 years.

Tehran decentralized command, distributed political authority across regional nodes and cultivated multiple successors at every IRGC level. This enabled regime to withstand assassination of many high-ranking leaders. 2/

Putin is making $760M a day from oil as the Iran war drives prices higher.

Russia’s oil and gas revenues are set to double this month — from $12B to nearly $24B — boosted by price spikes and US sanctions waivers, Telegraph and KSE Institute. 1/ Even if the war ends soon, Russia’s energy revenues are projected at $218.5B this year. That’s +63% vs pre-war expectations — an $84B windfall under an optimistic scenario. 2/

The Pentagon prepares “final blow” options for Iran.

Plans include ground invasions, seizure of key islands, and a massive bombing campaign if talks fail and Hormuz remains blocked, Axios. 1/ US officials outlined 4 main scenarios.

Seizing Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil hub), Larak (controls Hormuz), Abu Musa and nearby islands, or intercepting Iranian oil shipments in the strait. 2/

Shapiro: The only thing Iran can do at this point is harass people.

They can harass their neighbors with occasional missile and drone strikes.

They can bother some shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 1/ Shapiro: There are two types of victory, political victory and actual victory.

We may already have an actual victory. If Iran ends up falling, that victory will belong to President Trump because we will have weakened the foundations of the Iranian regime. 2/

Rutte: Ukraine's NATO membership is not on the cards for now. When the war stops, Putin must know the reaction will be devastating if he tries again.

In Paris in January, a coalition of the willing agreed on what Ukraine's security guarantees should look like. 1/ Rutte: Critical US support for Ukraine, paid for by allies through PURL, continues to flow — and this is crucial. Intelligence the US shares with Ukraine is essential.

So is defense industrial output from US stockpiles — Patriot interceptors and other vital military gear. 2/

Russia has abducted more than 19,000 Ukrainian children. Many are taught to shoot, dig trenches and hate their homeland — so Russia can send them back to fight against Ukraine, Newsmax.

Psalm 82:4: “Rescue the weak and the needy; deliver them from the hand of the wicked.”1/ Four years ago Russian soldiers took at least 46 children from a Kherson orphanage — all under the age of five — to Crimea and placed them for adoption into Russian families.

One was adopted by Sergey Mironov, a former chairman of Russia’s upper chamber of parliament and a Putin ally. 2/

Russia is sending drones to Iran — Western intelligence.

Moscow exports upgraded drone tech tested in war with Ukraine. Systems like Geran-2, based on the Iranian Shahed-136, were modified with better engines, navigation, and anti-jamming capabilities, FT. 1/ Moscow is close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine, and food to support Tehran for keeping it fighting after US-Israeli strikes. 2/

A potential scenario: US Marines land on Kharg Island under fire, take cover behind Iran’s oil terminals.

This forces Tehran into a brutal choice — destroy its own economy or let the US control 90% of its oil exports, — Financial Times. 1/ Kharg is where 90% of Iran’s oil is loaded.

Seizing it wouldn’t be symbolic. It would mean controlling the country’s main source of revenue. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia is effectively blackmailing — saying it won’t share intel with Iran if the US stops aiding Ukraine.

Ukraine is building ties in the Middle East, offering unique expertise — not just drones, but systems, strategy, and how to use them.

1/ Zelenskyy: Russia’s goal is 1,000 drones a day — not reality yet, but it’s their target.

Ukraine is scaling too: with funding, we can produce up to 2,000 interceptor drones daily to counter it.

2/

Zelenskyy: Trump wants a quick end to the war, but “quick” means at someone’s expense — Russia or Ukraine.

I won’t accept peace at Ukraine’s expense. Leaving the east is a major risk — and a bad peace would also be a risk for Trump.

1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s east and its defense lines are core to our security guarantees.

The idea of trading withdrawal from Donbas for US guarantees is shaped by Russia’s narrative — and it’s dangerous.

2/

In February, Ukraine gained more ground than it lost for first month since 2023, clawing back about 100 square miles in Zaporizhzhia. Now Russia intensifying attacks to retake lost land.

Lt. Col. Gersak: "They are massing and want to push us again" — NYT. 1/ Musk's decision in February to block Russian troops' access to Starlink gave Ukrainian forces brief reprieve from drone assaults and more ease of movement.

This helped Ukraine's counterattack in Zaporizhzhia region. 2/

For Putin, the war in Iran changed everything.

Rising oil prices, easing US sanctions and Western divisions removed pressure on Moscow — halting any momentum toward negotiations on Ukraine, NYT. 1/ At the start of 2026, Russia’s economy was deteriorating.

Oil sold to India at $22 per barrel, about one-third of market rates. High rates, low reserves and falling revenues pointed to bankruptcies and collapse risks. 2/

“$300-$500 and a trip abroad.”

Moldovan recruit Maxim Roșca was promised easy money and travel — then sent to camps in Bosnia and Serbia to train in drones, incendiary devices and protest tactics, Politico.

Recruits were told instructions would come from Moscow. 1/ In camps, they learned to fly drones, drop explosives, evade police and organize unrest — part of a Russia-backed network targeting operations across Europe. 2/

Today I said on CNN:

There’s a 50–60% chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine this year — not soon, but before the US midterms.

If this window closes, the war could last another 1–2 years, with major consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

1/ Me: Russia is using global distraction to Iran to escalate — yesterday’s super major attack hit during the day, when people were at work and in traffic.

We can’t view these wars in isolation — Russia and Iran coordinate on intelligence, technology, and military.

2/

Confidential EU discussions could reach Moscow through AfD access to internal files — Politico

German MPs can access a databank containing thousands of EU documents, including internal notes on sensitive negotiations such as plans to fund Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. 1/ The risk is changing how the EU shares information.

Diplomats are limiting what they say in meetings and adjusting discussions, factoring in that sensitive material could be exposed through existing access channels tied to the German system. 2/

Save Ukraine, charitable foundation, rescued 1,162 Ukrainian children using "underground railroad”. Russia is doing everything to prevent returns, so they use covert operations.

Founder Mykola Kuleba: "It's like special operation for every child" — CNN. 1/ Rostyslav Lavrov, 16, walked out of Russian naval academy in occupied Crimea October 2023. Save Ukraine volunteers waited to pick him up.

Took two days to reach Ukrainian territory. Russian authorities declared him "missing and wanted." 2/

Oleksandr “Teren” Tarnai served nearly 4 years in an assault company. He fought across Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblast, Donetsk Oblast. On February 13, 2026 an artillery shell killed him. He was 35. 1/ He stayed by the vehicle waiting for a tow truck — not wanting to lose a single second delivering his men to the front. His friend, officer Yaroslav Halas of the 128th Brigade, writes about him on Ukrainska Pravda. 2/