Why Donetsk sits at the center of the peace talks.

In Abu Dhabi, Rubio called it the one remaining item. Moscow disputes that — but the Ukrainian-held part of Donetsk is the core territorial demand Russia won’t drop, NYT. 1/ Russia still wants 2,082 sq miles of Donetsk — smaller than Delaware, but politically decisive.

For months, Moscow has signaled it won’t stop fighting until Kyiv hands over the rest of the region it still controls. 2/

Foreman: Russia's "third army" is effectively a bit of a rabble. It will throw emphasis back onto nuclear weapons.

Russia is already inferior economically, militarily, financially to Europe. That gap's going to grow. Russia is in decline. Russian economy is creaking along. 1/ Foreman: Why would Russia want to attack NATO when having suffered at the hands of Ukraine so grievously and then have to face an even more superior enemy?

Even European NATO could handle the Russian army let alone with the Americans there. An army quite good on paper. 2/

Sikorski: The Nobel Peace Prize is of some interest. Right now, prime ministers get letters. As foreign ministers, we have the right to nominate.

If President Trump secures a fair peace for Ukraine, I shall do it myself. But it's I who will decide what a fair peace is. 1/ Sikorski: Norwegian air defense systems and F-35s were the 1st to help protect the Polish sky. Defense cooperation has been growing steadily and effectively.

Together we are helping Ukrainian soldiers who can now train in Poland in camps. 2/

At the end of Ukraine conflict, we'll have a very big Russia problem

Russia will be reconstituting its force on NATO borders, led by the same people, convinced we're the adversary, and very angry. Putin taking on Baltic republics might be a gamble he's willing to take, Times 1/ Russia maintains the world's biggest nuclear stockpile: ~5,000 warheads on 324 ballistic missiles, 71 bombers, and 12 missile launching submarines.

Much of its arsenal, including strategic weapons, has not been damaged in Ukraine. 2/

Kasparov: Europeans’ dominant thought has been that somehow war in Ukraine will end: “Somehow they’ll come to an agreement. We don’t want to go all the way; we’re not at war with Putin.”

It’s still this mentality of detente. No one took any radical action. 1/ Kasparov: The Russian government will be a threat. This threat could escalate into outright aggression. Europe is preparing for this. Multi-year military budgets are being planned. It is understood that this war must be won and Putin deprived of the ability to fight. 2/

Sarah Paine: Putin is fixated on Ukraine, Xi on Taiwan — opposite ends of Eurasia. Their main theaters don’t align.

The West should avoid hot war, avoid trade wars, grow stronger. While Putin burns through Russia’s assets in Ukraine. That’s how the last Cold War was won.

1/ Sarah Paine: Putin is trying to build an empire in the age of nationalism. It’s a non-starter.

He’s burning Russia’s military in Ukraine while China expands into Central Asia.

Moscow chose a hot war while weak, and Beijing is strong. That’s what makes this so damaging.

2/

In a Kyiv suburb a Shahed strike erased a family in minutes.

Svitlana Blatova and her partner Maksym were killed instantly. Their 4-year-old daughter survived.

“A child screaming, ‘Mama, mama, mama.’ And her mother wasn’t answering. The upper floor was burning,” — Hromadske. 1/ Hours before the hit, Svitlana posted plans for the next day — errands, work, preparations for her eldest son’s 20th birthday. She went to sleep smiling. 2/

From Morgan Stanley to the front line.

At 22, Ukrainian Viktoriia Honcharuk had a Manhattan banking job, Midtown apartment. Two weeks later, she was evacuating wounded soldiers under Russian fire, NY Post. 1/
Viktoriia quit her investment banking role in Dec 2022 and flew home.

No combat or medical background. She signed up as an emergency combat medic because it was the most needed job. One week of training. Then the front. 2/

Colombian volunteer in Ukraine, DW: As of now, the president of Colombia sees us as mercenaries. He said we're mercenaries.

Because we're fighting for the freedom of a country? I personally fight for freedom. 1/ “The moment you get to this position, you see it's hell. Three orcs came up to my position, and I killed them. One FPV hit me, broke my finger. I bandaged myself up and kept fighting. That night I repelled a lot of assaults.” 2/

Putin cannot win on the battlefield, so he сonducts genocide against civilians — cutting heat, electricity, gas, and water to millions of Ukrainians during winter, writes Peter Dickinson in the Atlantic Council. 1/ Since late 2025, Russia has launched its most comprehensive campaign of strikes on civilian infrastructure since the full-scale invasion.

Power plants, heating hubs, gas and water systems are hit repeatedly to block repairs and keep cities freezing. 2/

Hodges: What makes NATO successful? Cohesion.

The Soviet Union and Russia avoided a conventional attack because they knew we would all show up.

That certainty — that everyone would be there — was the secret sauce, more decisive than money spent on equipment. 1/ Hodges: The seizure of a Russian tanker showed how the alliance works.

US helicopters staged through UK bases, refueled with British naval support, operated with US ships based in Spain by allied permission. Half of the intelligence came from allies, not only the UK. 2/

Matviichuk, Nobel Peace Prize winner: It's very difficult on daily basis to work with human pain. Russian war turns people into the numbers.

We have more than 100,000 episodes. But people are not numbers. With our documentation work, we are returning people their names. 1/ Matviichuk: War test us and provide people an opportunity to express the best in them, to be courageous, to fight for freedom and to help each other. In Ukraine, people risk their lives for others who they never met before. We have no luxury to become cynical. Cynicism is illness. 2/

Oleh flew across Europe for a living. At 51, a Russian missile took his sight. Two years later, he changed Ukrainian law for wounded civilians.

This is the story of Oleh Miroshnychenko, — Ukrainska Pravda.

1/ Miroshnychenko spent most of his life in the cockpit.

Passenger flights. Then business jets. A European EASA license after a year of study in the UK and 14 exams. He planned to fly until 65.

2/

Kallas: In the last 100 years, Russia has attacked at least 19 countries — some repeatedly. None attacked Russia.

To stop this war from spreading, concessions must come from Russia: limits on its military and accountability for its crimes.

1/ Kallas: Right now there’s heavy pressure on Ukrainians to make very difficult concessions. They’re willing to do it because they truly want this war to stop.

2/

Russia’s war budget is tightening as peace talks restart — and the math is getting worse.

Ahead of US-Russia talks in Miami, the Kremlin is scrambling to plug a 1.2tn ruble ($16bn) budget hole if war spending rises again, Bloomberg. 1/ That gap equals about 0.5% of GDP on top of the planned 1.6% deficit.

Energy revenues are falling, the ruble is unexpectedly strong, and Moscow is already preparing for spending to overshoot targets — again. 2/

Jack Lopresti, UK volunteer for Ukraine: What Ukrainians are living through is in our DNA. Britain remembers 1940 — being bombed, fighting alone for survival.

What Russia is doing now is simply evil: nightly air attacks, murdered civilians, war crimes, kidnapped children.

1/ Lopresti: Appeasement doesn’t work. Invasions can’t be negotiated away. Dictators must be deterred and defeated.

Peace by surrender is easy.

A just peace means Ukraine controls its own future, its alliances, its army, and its path to NATO and the EU.

2/

West is finally squeezing Russia’s shadow fleet — and oil revenues with it.

On Jan 22, French commandos seized the tanker Grinch off Spain: false flag, under sanctions, carrying 730,000 barrels of Russian oil. It’s one of at least 5 tankers captured this month, The Economist. 1/ Nearly 700 mostly aging tankers now move embargoed oil for Russia and Iran — up to 1,500 if counting occasional users.

In Dec, they carried 5M barrels per day, about 11% of global seaborne oil. One in 5 tankers now sails “dark.” 2/

Belgian PM De Wever: When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, I thought we were back in the 1980s — a tyrant attacking a democracy.

I expected an American leader to say, “Mr. Putin, get out of Ukraine.” Instead, Washington says it takes no side between Putin and Zelenskyy.

1/ De Wever: When tyranny invades democracy and the U.S. says it won’t take sides, you know it’s not the 1980s — it’s the 1880s.

This is a new age of imperial thinking and gunboat diplomacy. It may fade after Trump — or get worse.

2/

Bill Browder calls for sanctions on refineries buying Russian crude — not just tankers.

Browder: 8 refineries in China, India, and Turkey funnel $500M-$1B per day to the Kremlin by processing Russian oil into fuel, The Guardian. 1/ Browder: How does Putin afford this war? Oil.

Main buyers: China, India, Turkey. Cut them off, and Russian oil would trade at a “blood diamonds” discount. In 6 months, Putin would be out of business. 2/

Vsevolod, Kyiv resident: When it’s +2°C inside your apartment, you can’t do anything there.

We spend the day at our volunteer hub, then crash wherever friends can take us for the night. There’s no heating almost for a month. 1/ Oleksandr: It’s 5°C in my apartment, humidity is 70%, everything is soaked.

I’ve filed 10 complaints to the city and 10 more through the 1557 system [responsible for utility services]. You can see the result — no response. 2/

Russia’s bomber production is breaking down: only 2 of 4 Tu-160M bombers promised since 2022 have been delivered — United24.

For Ukraine, this means fewer bombers to strike cities, energy infrastructure, and civilian homes. 1/ Russia’s key bomber manufacturer, Tupolev, replaced its CEO again in January 2026 after repeated failures to deliver aircraft on time.

This is the second leadership shake-up in a year, driven by missed military contracts and lawsuits from the Russian Defense Ministry. 2/