Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.

It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/ Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.

The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/

Budanov: Russia is building a digital ghetto.

It wants to control people, complicate Ukrainian intelligence work, and prepare society for serious decisions that may be unpopular or hard to explain. That is why it cuts off alternative information. 1/ Budanov: Russia is replacing reality. In Moscow, there is a whole “museum of Ukrainian Nazism.”

It has nothing to do with reality, but it is built logically and professionally. A person who sees it can believe it — that is the danger. 2/

Budanov: Russia’s goals keep moving lower under pressure from reality. First it was “Kyiv in three days.”

After almost four years, it became “Donbas at any cost.” Now the new goal is Ukraine outside military alliances and without nuclear status. 1/ Budanov: Russia’s leadership lives in numbers, charts, economic and geopolitical forecasts — and those forecasts look bad for them.

There is no real optimism at the top. That is why their public narratives keep changing. 2/

Xi got Trump to hedge on a multibillion-dollar Taiwan arms sale and gave up nothing in return.

After 43 hours in Beijing, Trump said he had not decided whether to proceed with the sale — Washington Post. 1/ Xi pursued stability above all else.

He framed the summit as a "constructive, strategically stable relationship." Chinese state media said the framework should guide US-China ties through Trump's term and beyond. 2/

Russia's stalled offensive runs on North Korean shells, North Korean missiles, and North Korean blood.

Pyongyang has shipped up to $14.4B in arms and 15,000 troops since Aug 2023 — Bloomberg. 1/ Russia pays mostly in sensitive military technology and precision components.

Russia also helped build two North Korean destroyers and upgraded Pyongyang's electronic warfare and jamming systems. 2/

For three years Europe armed Ukraine. After Trump cancelled Germany's Tomahawks this month, Ukraine may now arm Europe.

Diplomatic source in Berlin: "Together with Ukraine, a lot is possible with short time frames" — The Telegraph. 1/ Joe Biden pledged the Tomahawks to Germany in Jul 2024, range 1,550 miles.

They were closing a fatal gap. Europe has sea-launched Tomahawks but no ground-launched system to hit Russian submarine ports and air bases. 2/

Russia is running out of people for its war in Ukraine — so Putin is handing out passports in Transnistria.

Putin signed a decree allowing residents of Moldova's breakaway region to obtain Russian citizenship without living in Russia or speaking Russian — Politico. 1/ Moldovan President Maia Sandu: "Probably they need more people to send to the war in Ukraine." 2/

Q: What are the top-3 innovations Germany looks up to in Ukraine?

Pistorius: AI, drones, including UAV, and for us it's very important to develop a long-range missile, an anti-ballistic missile.

We need more European solutions for what we are now forced to buy elsewhere.

1/ Fedorov: Our goal is to intercept 90–95% of missiles and Shaheds.

Ukraine launched the world's first 'Short-Range Air Defense' structure within the Air Force. Interceptor drones now hit 50–75% of Shaheds.

Germany is investing in Ukrainian Air Defense.

2/

Rachman, FT: "The current wars in Ukraine and Iran underline how foolish it is to assume that a military superpower will always win a war against a smaller country."

China's assumption that Taiwan would be helpless without American support is a dangerous mistake.

1/ Ukraine has no navy — yet forced the Russian navy out of the Black Sea. Iran's navy was reportedly destroyed — yet Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with drones, missiles and speedboats.

Naval superpowers are increasingly vulnerable to cheap weapons.

2/

CNN: Russian drones circle targeting vehicles and dropping explosives on troops. You have to keep moving or they may swarm around you.

The battlefield has completely changed in a year. Nobody drives cars or tanks unless they have to. Nets and robots are now key protection. 1/ CNN: Drones also target heavy gunfire. Their friend, a lieutenant, killed when this car was hit just two days ago.

We are nearing their bunker position. There are moments here to rest, to see the trophies of drones that failed. It's a bit tough at this moment. 2/

Merz: With Europe facing enormous security challenges, close coordination has never been more important.

Europe will not let up in its efforts for a durable and just peace in Ukraine — and Kyiv can rely on Europe’s consistent support. 1/ Merz: Europe will keep increasing pressure on Moscow. Russia must understand that it has to negotiate.

Europe is ready to come to the negotiating table with Ukraine, Russia and the United States. 2/

Graham: If China invades Taiwan, the full weight of U.S. sanctions and tariffs should hit on day one.

That is deterrence. If we had done this with Russia before Ukraine, I do not think Putin would have invaded. 1/ Graham: China buys 90% of Iran’s oil.

Trump says he does not need Beijing’s help, but there will come a moment when China has to be held accountable. If you keep funding Iran, there must be a price. 2/

Sybiha, Ukrainian FM: Russia plans to complete what the Russian Empire began and what the Soviet Union failed to finish.

They want to destroy the very foundation of the existence of Ukrainians as a separate nation. — Times of Central Asia.

1/ Sybiha: “Ukraine and Kazakhstan both remember bans on language and culture, the destruction of the intelligentsia, deportations, repression, and famines. We cannot allow this to happen again."

Kazakhstan provided Ukraine with around 600 tons of humanitarian aid since 2022.

2/

Xi Jinping to Trump: Putin may regret invading Ukraine, FT.

Xi said this as the war enters its fifth year, Russia remains stuck in a battlefield stalemate, and Ukrainian drones keep striking Russian troops and targets deep behind the front.

1/ Xi made the remark during talks with Donald Trump in Beijing last week.

FT: Xi went further than in past US-China talks on Ukraine.

2/

Stubb: The Soviet Union marched 1,600km to Berlin in four years. Russia moved 60km into Donetsk in three.

Who knows modern warfare? Ukraine does. They are Europe's best security partner.

1/ Stubb: Ukraine kills or wounds 30–35,000 Russians per month. Kill ratio: 1 Ukrainian to 7–8 Russians.

In April, Ukraine took back more territory than Russia gained. 95% of damage comes from Ukrainian drones. The dead zone stretches 20–40km. Russia stopped advancing.

2/

Gates, former US Def. Sec: It would be a mistake to change the carefully worded US position on Taiwan.

Experts parse these things down to the tense of the verbs. Keeping the US position as it has been is important, and everything I’ve seen indicates the president did that. 1/ Gates: The US should go forward with what we’ve agreed with Taiwan. There is a huge backlog of weapons we sold to Taiwan that we have not been able to deliver.

An important shift is getting Taiwan to focus on weapons needed to defend against a Chinese amphibious invasion. 2Х

Ukrainians are currently teaching 18,000 NATO troops on the Swedish island of Gotland.

The Aurora 26 exercises bring together 12 NATO members and Ukraine as a tutor. Ukrainian soldiers are sharing their experience in drone warfare — Radio Svoboda.

1/ For Sweden, the Aurora 26 exercises are part of the process of deepening its integration within NATO, which it joined just two years ago.

Gotland provides a strategic location between mainland Sweden and the Baltic states to the East.

2/

Zelenskyy: Russia is considering plans for operations to the south and north of Belarusian territory, either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries directly from the territory of Belarus — Reuters. 1/ Russia has already deployed tactical nuclear warheads and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles in Belarus.

Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia all share the border. Both systems shorten Moscow's flight time to Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga. 2/

Kellogg: Since Iran’s revolution, eight U.S. presidents have dealt with this regime, but only Trump has done something.

The IRGC was created to protect the revolution, not the country. If it survives, this problem returns in 5, 10 or 20 years. 1/ Kellogg: Iran’s “Mosaic Defense” was built to fight the U.S. by decentralizing the IRGC, so everyone acts independently.

But Tehran never accounted for a president like Trump — and that is the mistake they made. 2/

Keane: China dominates the U.S. militarily in the region on every platform except submarines.

But deterrence is not platform-to-platform — it is forward capability and political will to impose costs and make Beijing doubt it can succeed. 1/ Keane: Xi has said for years he intends to take Taiwan. The goal is not only geopolitical — it is technological.

The world’s most advanced AI chips are made in Taiwan. Whoever owns that capability owns the future of AI. 2/

Budanov: Ukraine is fighting the most brutal war on the European continent since World War II.

By casualties, geography, and the range of weapons used, we are at the top. A bad “top,” but still the top. 1/ Budanov: Unity means uniting around the state. During war, it is not the time to undermine the hierarchy.

When media feeds only scandals and betrayal, the soldier in the trench starts asking: why am I here? 2/