Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
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Nov 22 13 tweets 3 min read
Lasar’s Group — one of Ukraine’s most lethal drone units has destroyed over $12B in Russian equipment.

Suspilne interviewed Roman “Fish,” a commander credited with 500+ armored kills from Kupiansk to Pokrovsk. 1/ Image Fish joined Lasar’s Group almost from day one. The unit scaled from a few pilots to dozens and became a model of 2025 warfare:

“A small autonomous strike group can replace an entire machine of a regular army.”

They combine recon, heavy bombers, FPV and engineering. 2/
Nov 22 4 tweets 1 min read
Washington is pressuring Kyiv harder than ever before, threatening to cut intelligence and weapons unless Ukraine agrees with US-brokered peace deal by next Thursday.

One source said, “They want to stop the war and want Ukraine to pay the price.” — Reuters. 1/ Image US delivered 28-point plan that backs key Russian demands — forcing Ukraine to cede more territory, shrink its military, abandon NATO membership.

Framework mirrors concessions Washington now expects Kyiv to accept. 2/
Nov 21 6 tweets 3 min read
Putin: After the Alaska talks, the U.S. paused negotiations on Trump’s peace plan because Ukraine rejected it.

That produced a new 28-point version. We have the text, but the U.S. didn’t discuss it with us.

[Ukraine obviously rejects capitulation.]

1/ Putin: Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine was discussed before the Alaska meeting. The U.S. asked us to accept certain compromises and “show flexibility.”

In Anchorage we confirmed that, despite difficulties, we agreed to those proposals and were ready to show that flexibility.

2/
Nov 21 5 tweets 1 min read
Zelenskyy goes all in.

Zelenskyy: Our choice is our dignity vs risking losing [the US] support.

It is a 28-point “peace” vs an extremely hard winter.

We asked to live without freedom, dignity, and justice. We are asked to trust [Russia], which has betrayed us already twice. 1/ Zelenskyy: [The US] asks to give an answer if we agree to this.

But I already answered in 2019 when I became president and swore an oath to protect Ukraine, its sovereignty and independence, people's rights, and justice. 2/
Nov 20 22 tweets 3 min read
Axios published a full 28-point Trump’s Ukraine-Russia peace plan. Trump will drive it hard and Zelenskyy might not have much choice.

Trump is aiming to get it done before the end of the year to have the cycle move off Epstein. 0/ Image The deal is pro-Russian but might be the only deal Ukraine can ever get given the US and Europe are unwilling to fund Ukraine

Ukraine is forced to give up territory, stay out of NATO, weaken its military, accept a vague U.S. guarantee and give Russia amnesty. 1/
Nov 20 12 tweets 3 min read
Timothy Snyder in Subsyack explains how negotiations with Russia must work and why any deal built on Moscow’s demands is doomed.

His 10 principles show what real peace requires for Ukraine and global security.

1/ Image 1. Concessions can’t come first.

Snyder notes that some U.S. ideas already floated, so no NATO for Ukraine, no trials for Russian war criminals, no reparations give Russia major rewards upfront.

Giving Moscow anything “in advance” is counterproductive and unjust, especially when offered on behalf of Ukrainians.

2/
Nov 20 8 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine is now shooting down Russian Shaheds using mixed teams of soldiers and civilians — a new nationwide air-defense layer built from 700 interceptor-drone crews trained to chase targets at 300 km/h.

Le Monde reports on this new civil–military drone hunt system.

1/ Image On the frontline near Kherson and Mykolaiv, 39th Brigade crews use French Mistral missiles.

Teams change position within minutes, because once they fire, Russian Lancet loitering munitions immediately hunt them down.

2/
Nov 20 11 tweets 4 min read
Ukraine’s Spy Chief, Budanov: The situation around Pokrovsk is extremely hard, but we are holding.

The operation was needed because Russia had already claimed the city was taken. Our actions bought time for the main units to reach and reinforce the city.

1/ Budanov: In negotiations you cannot take and discard a key factor. You cannot ignore the real situation on the battlefield or the social state.

A negotiation on ending hostilities is always multidomain — much deeper and wider than something like oil supply talks.

2/
Nov 20 7 tweets 3 min read
Whitaker: President Trump is frustrated with Vladimir Putin.

Every time they talk about a ceasefire or peace, more bombs hit Ukrainian cities. Trump is sustaining pressure with sanctions and expects European allies, including Germany, to use the same leverage.

1/ Whitaker: The resilience of the Ukrainian people and their desire to defend their country and freedoms struck me.

Their innovation with drones and other autonomous vehicles, their creativity, and their willingness to experiment in a real-time battle lab impressed me.

2/
Nov 19 7 tweets 1 min read
Bad news for Ukraine.

Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg plans to leave in January, writes Reuters.
Ukraine can lose one of the U.S. officials who consistently pushed back on Kremlin talking points.

1/ Image Kellogg hits the 360-day legal limit for special envoys. The law forces him out unless the Senate confirms him and no one expects that to happen.

2/
Nov 19 5 tweets 2 min read
Mike Pence: Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is the worst act of aggression in Europe since 1939.

It’s more that an attack on one country. It’s an attack on the right of free people to choose their own destiny and on the principle that borders can't be redrawn by force. 1/ Pence: I have no doubt that if Putin overruns Ukraine, he won’t stop.

It will only be a matter of time before he crosses a border where our own men and women in uniform will have to deal with him. 2/
Nov 19 6 tweets 1 min read
A Ukrainian billionaire told me today: “It’s better to sit in a Ukrainian detention center than hang from a pine tree under Russia.”

Wherever Russia arrives, 20–25% of the population disappears. Chechnya is the clearest proof.

1/ Image Before the two Chechen wars, about 1.2 million people lived in the republic.

After ten years of Russian operations, fewer than 1 million remained.

Some were killed. Some vanished in filtration camps. Many fled and never returned.

2/
Nov 19 7 tweets 2 min read
Europe folded in front of Trump.

EU leaders accepted his 15% tariff without hitting back because they feared he would cut US security support during the war in Ukraine, writes Gideon Rachman for FT.

1/ Image Trump cut Europe out of his talks with Putin on ending the war. EU diplomats begged the White House for access and got nothing.

Same in Gaza: the US, Qatar, Egypt and Israel drove the ceasefire. Europe watched from the sidelines.

2/
Nov 19 10 tweets 2 min read
Highest-level Pentagon officials Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Gen. Randy George to visit Ukraine this week.

Focus is on peace negotiations and a major tech-sharing deal on drone and autonomous weapons — Politico.

1/ Image Ukraine has emerged as a global leader in drone warfare, producing over 1.5 million first-person view drones annually.

The U.S. Army wants to buy 1 million drones over 2-3 years — far beyond current U.S. industry capacity.

2/
Nov 18 10 tweets 2 min read
Europe's defense problem isn't just about weapons — it currently takes 45 days to move troops from western ports to NATO's eastern flank.

Tunnels are narrow, bridges are crumbling.

The goal: reduce this to 3-5 days to deter Russian aggression — Financial Times.

1/ Image The infrastructure challenge is severe: Bradley fighting vehicles had turrets ripped off by Polish railway station roofs.

France couldn't send tanks to Romania via Germany in 2022 — had to ship them through the Mediterranean instead.

2/
Nov 18 9 tweets 2 min read
Putin has no plan for winning in Ukraine.

His losses are catastrophic - 984k–1.44m casualties, up to 480k dead and all he has achieved is expanding NATO and wiping out a generation of young Russian men, writes The Economist.

1/ Image His 2025 summer offensive (the third and largest) — failed.

Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones; if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.

After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year.

2/
Nov 17 6 tweets 1 min read
I told CNN that Zelenskyy must act as harshly as possible on the corruption scandal with energy company “Energoatom,” or he risks losing public support among Ukrainians.

1/ Image People say: “Let’s see how Zelenskyy acts. If he’s not acting, then he’s with the accused. If he really sanctions them, arrests them, prosecutes those who allow this to happen, then, okay, he’s good.”

2/
Nov 17 4 tweets 2 min read
Stubb: I'm a realistic optimist, but to be quite honest, I don't see an end to this conflict this year.

The earliest we can get into the negotiating table would be February, March, but that is for President Zelensky to decide. There should be no solo acts. 1/ Stubb: It's obvious that Russia will remain a long-standing threat to security and stability of Europe even after the war. NATO and Europe needs to continue to strengthen our defences.

The defence spending commitment is important and we need greater European investment. 2/
Nov 17 5 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine’s ground robot is now fighting like an infantryman.

Droid TW 12.7 held a frontline position for six weeks, writes Militarnyi. Operators sent it to a key crossroads each morning and pulled it back at night.

Russians tried to break through — the robot stopped them.

1/ The robot fired its M2 Browning 12.7 mm and cut down Russian assault groups.

It replaced a full infantry team.

2/
Nov 16 5 tweets 2 min read
Russia’s economy has almost hit a wall.

Q3 2025 GDP grew just 0.6% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q2, and the Central Bank now sees only 0.5-1% growth for the year.

War costs and sanctions are finally biting, writes The Moscow Times. 1/ Image Two years of war spending kept factories busy but lit an inflation fire: prices are still rising 8% a year.

To fight that, the Central Bank holds rates high, and the civilian economy pays the price with weaker demand and stalled investment. 2/
Nov 16 9 tweets 4 min read
President Stubb: I’m not optimistic about a ceasefire or peace talks in Ukraine this year — maybe by February or March.

Until then, we must maximize pressure on Russia and force Putin to rethink his aim of denying Ukraine’s independence. 1/ Stubb: Ukraine needs two things: financial support, using €140-180B in frozen Russian assets as collateral to get through winter — and increased military pressure.

West must keep supplying weapons. With Putin, only the stick works, he won’t negotiate unless forced. 2/