Today, Putin admits that Russian economy is in trouble, the losses are not sustainable, but he won't negotiate with Zelensky, only with Trump. Why? Zelensky won't surrender Ukraine, he hopes Trump might

Here is what he says and what he means: 1/ Putin says: Inflation is a worrying signal, standing at 9.2%-9.3%, but real wages have grown faster than inflation. Therefore, the overall situation is stable

He means: The economy is unraveling, and even I can no longer sustain the illusion 2/

An Oscar winning Ukrainian, Mstyslav Chernov, is an extraordinary human! The best we produce as a human race. 1/ In January Mstyslav Chernov will present his new film, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, at the Sundance Film Festival. It is a documentary about Ukrainian platoon fighting to liberate a strategic village during a (failed) counteroffensive last year. 2/

Some Ukrainian students will never hold their diplomas because they were killed by Russia. They never got to finish their studies, to start their careers, to live their lives.

This is Polina Zheldak, who was killed in Chernihiv on March 3, 2022, and was a student at the Nizhyn Pedagogical University. 1/ At the University of Massachusetts (UMass), an exhibit called "Unawarded Diplomas" honors 22 of these students. Artem Havryliuk, a KSE exchange student, helped bring this exhibit to life.

This is Kyrylo Osipenko, who was killed in Kharkiv on March 1, 2022, and was a student at Kharkiv Polytechnic University. 2/

That’s a great meme - nuclear powers can and do lose wars when faced with determined, asymmetric opponents.

Last year, @TimothyDSnyder made a strong case that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is irrelevant in Ukraine, except as a tool of intimidation. 1/

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1869137168700252402

I often say that Russia threatens to nuke Ukraine, and the West indulges this talk. A flawed idea paralyzes people’s minds - a nuclear power can’t loose a war. But it can and often does 2/

Top Russian general killed in bomb blast in Moscow. Ukraine says it’s behind it.

This a new chilling stage in this war - urban assassinations by explosives reaching capitals

Russia started this weeks ago. Now, it appears to me Ukraine retaliated 1/

This is not that much in the news, but Russia has been recently targeting military officers by booby traps and explosions in cities across Ukraine.

One recent case was reported a couple of days ago. An explosion that killed several military officers at a mobilization center 2/

Yesterday, two Russian tankers carrying 8,600 tonnes of fuel oil faced catastrophic accidents in the Black Sea. One split in half, with casualties, while the other ran aground

These dilapidated tankers, built in 1969 and 1982, are the symbol of the “strong Russian economy” 1/ They are also illustrating the Russian strategy of by passing sanctions - using a shadow fleet of ran down, uninsured tankers that violate every imaginable regulation

Russia says “f..ck you” to the rules of the world, per usual 2/

I met Simon Ostrovsky in Donbass in 2014 when Russia invaded for the first time. He was standing on a hill doing an interview with Ukrainian military, who just took back a town from Russians

We drove past him beyond the oil and ran into a Russian reconnaissance team 1/

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1867211429474189671

That was scary. We turned around as quick as we could and drove back. That was super bizarre. Western media interviewing Ukrainian military about liberation while a mile down there were steal Russians. The fog of war so to speak. 2/

The true shock in this war came from Ukraine itself - its people, defying scripts written in Moscow and Washington

Yet, the old ways of thinking persist. Speaking in Berlin this week, I was struck by how much of the debate revolved around Trump imposing a top-down solution 1/ So what is shocking for me in many discussions about Ukraine, especially now after the Trump election, is how experts and policy makers focus on Russian perspectives, American perspectives, German perspectives, ignoring Ukrainian perspectives 2/

Putin has kompromat over Trump is a frequent point.

I don't think it is true, but if it were, oh boy, Putin would be in real trouble

I think what people don't understand about kompormat is that it only gives you leverage over people who are weaker than you 1/ Kompromat over people who are stronger than you put you in mortal danger. They can take you out and they will because they don't want to risk you ever using this kompromat 2/

NBC: Trump’s national security team has held discussions with the White House and Ukrainian leaders as part of a concerted effort to find a way to end the war with Russia

Trump's team is trying, but I guarantee you that "quick peace" is doomed to fail. This is why: 1/ 1. Putin is testing Trump now by escalating in Ukraine and will test Trump later after any ceasefire and peace agreement. He will violate and see what Trump does

Trump needs leverage over Russia, but I see only two pathways: arming Ukraine and oil prices 2/

Ukraine’s battlefield evolves at breakneck speed: from drones to optical cables in the air to cable-drone interceptors

A Ukrainian drone intercepts a Russian drone that bypasses Ukrainian Electronic Warfare using optic cable (dragging it in flight) chasing a Ukrainian tank 1/ Over the last year, both sides have intensified their use of drones to save lives and destroy expensive enemy equipment. A drone costs 1/1000th of what high-tech weapons do but delivers massive damage 2/

Western money and technologies power up Russian wars. Without Western chips, Russia wouldn’t be able to launch missiles, including the now feared by the West Oreshnik Intercontinental Ballistic Missile System

Reuters reports on how Russia gets the chips 1/ Russia is under sanctions that are supposed choke its access to high-tech components, including semiconductors

Yet, chips still flow into Russia

Sanctions are not enforced? They don’t work? Not really, the sanctions are incomplete and some countries are complicit 2/

Saidnaya’s Horror: Known as al-Maslakh al-Basharia (“the human slaughterhouse”), Saidnaya prison is a symbol of Assad’s brutality

Human-rights groups estimate between 13,000 and 30,000 people have been killed there since 2011

The Economist went there 1/ On a prison wall: “Take me, already.”2/

WP inverts the truth

No, Ukraine doesn’t start thinking about drafting 18-year olds

Not a single quote or fact in the article to support this

The article is just a collection of random statements about draft without any insight 1/ The article quotes Blinken who says Ukraine problem is manpower, not arms. This is not true. Brigades face shortage of weapons. They lost men because of lack of bullets and artillery shells 2/

The tide is turning for Ukraine

Zelensky had his first face-to-face with Trump since the election

Yermak, Zelensky’s right-hand man, was in Washington, engaging with Trump’s team, incl those skeptical

This is fresh momentum for Ukraine

1/


Macron hosted the meeting at the Élysée Palace during Notre Dame's reopening. His messaging reinforced Europe’s stance that Ukraine’s voice is critical to any negotiations 2/

Russia might lose its military bases in Syria, including its sole naval facility in the Mediterranean, which provides critical support to its naval operations south of Europe.

Good for everyone! 1/ Reuters: Two strategically important Russian military facilities in Syria - the Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval facility - are under serious threat from rapidly advancing insurgents, according to Russian war bloggers 2/

Syrian rebels continue to advance. They have taken the city of Palmyra and continue to move south. Putin is either unable or unwilling to come to the rescue

Here are recent headlines: 1/

Assad family escapes to Russia 2/

Prove me wrong!

NATO can’t protect Europe

Imagine Russia invades a small(er) European NATO country. The invasion is unexpected and large, with hundreds of brigades and thousands of tanks, the way it was done in Ukraine

Will the EU capital hold? I am not sure 1/ If the invasion is a surprise, the scale is massive, the speed I fast, at least part of that EU country gets occupied. Perhaps, even the entire country.

What’s next? 2/

Lavrov, through Tucker Carlson, delivers a sharp, manipulative pitch: Russia is ready to deal directly with Europe, bypassing the U.S. He tells Europeans they shouldn’t suffer for America’s fight but focus on their own security and prosperity with Russia

He said: 1/ Lavrov tries to exploit and amplify transatlantic friction by suggesting that Europe suffers needlessly due to U.S.-led policies

He also presents Russia as a rational actor - it is a willing partner for dialogue, against perceived U.S. arrogance 2/

Lavrov: we didn’t attack Ukraine. It is Ukraine and the U.S. who attacked us

Translation: War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is Strength 1/ Lavrov: We have no intention of attacking anyone at all. Right now, the United States has attacked us through the Ukrainian regime and is waging war against us using Ukrainian neo-Nazis,

Translation: we deluded ourselves that we can do whatever we want and then deny it 2/

Zelenskyy and his team are very pragmatic about building relationships with the Trump administration.

They now talk about peace, and propose specific ways how Ukraine can be useful for the U.S. These are key points of the new approach
1/ Zelenskyy amplifies the “peace through strength” narrative of Trump and is consistent in offering “mutually beneficial partnership”.

He pivoted his public position immediately after the election
2/

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1854083004252979474