Russia is seeing growing internal unrest, and Putin is responding with repression, arrests and the rehabilitation of Soviet symbols of terror — CNN.

In early March the FSB cut off mobile internet access in Moscow and other large cities. 1/ Putin: "The outages are related to operational work to prevent terrorist attacks. Widespread public information in advance can be detrimental to operational work, because criminals hear and see everything too." 2/

Macron: We are organizing the coalition of the willing for security guarantees in Ukraine under Franco-British command.

Europeans must take more responsibility for their own defense, keep NATO interoperability, and be able to act together. 1/ Macron: This exercise showed that Europeans can credibly deploy an operation of this scale together, with France as a framework nation.

That is a clear message to our Ukrainian partners and to every European army that knows it can join such missions. 2/

Ukraine wants to intercept 95% of Russia's long-range drones.

Borys, commander, 420th Unmanned Systems battalion: "Even if you use 50 drones to shoot down one Shahed, it's worth it. One Shahed can fly in and destroy something far more valuable" — Reuters. 1/ 1,000 of 6,500 Russian long-range drones got through last month — Ukrainian air force data.

The hits stripped heating and lighting from millions and gutted energy facilities, military sites, and cities. 2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: By 2021, the escalation had already reached the point where diplomacy could no longer stop the war.

The only thing left was rapid mobilization and real preparation for war. The diplomatic window had already closed. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: As I see it, for the United States the goal in the war in Ukraine is clearly not Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat.

If there is no goal, there is no strategy. If there is no strategy, what follows is chaos. That is exactly what we are seeing now. 2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: The old world order didn't enter turbulence. It no longer exists

Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, Venezuela and now the Middle East all show the same thing: rules exist on paper, but there is no force to enforce them. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: If any world order still exists, it is the order of the strong.

America is now telling Europe it is no longer the guarantor of European security and that Europe’s security is now in Europe’s own hands. That alone shows the old order is over. 2/

Yelizarov, founder of drone battalion that destroyed $14B worth of Russian equipment: Risk of tactical nuclear use is real. Partners must define a response in advance.

If Ukraine raises efficiency and enemy losses, it could demoralize Russia and enable a counteroffensive.

1/ Yelizarov: Russia faces manpower shortages. Ukraine could inflict more losses, but targets are limited.

Current Russian losses are about 30–35k per month. If Russia pushes harder, losses rise; if it slows down, they stay around that level.

2/

Merz: Ukraine may have to accept that parts of its territory remain outside Kyiv's control in a peace deal. The compensation is EU membership.

"I have opened the way to Europe for you," Merz suggested Zelenskyy tell his people — Reuters.

1/ Merz linked territorial concessions directly to EU accession, framing it as a political trade Zelenskyy must sell domestically.

Merz: "Zelenskyy had the idea of joining the EU on January 1, 2027. That will not work. Even January 1, 2028 is not realistic."

2/

Apolitical Russians are starting to feel the war.

Influencer Victoria Bonya[13m followers] urged Putin to “face the truth”: floods in Dagestan, oil spills on the Black Sea coast, internet blackouts and cattle culls in Siberia.

Five days later: 30 million views, The Economist.1/ Bonya is not an opposition politician or activist. She lives near Monaco and sells vegan cosmetics and clothing.

But she addressed Putin: "People are afraid of you, bloggers are afraid, artists are afraid, governors are afraid. But people should not be afraid of their president. I am not afraid." 2/

Keane: Three weeks into a ceasefire, a deal acceptable to Trump still looks far away.

The reason is simple: the Iranians do not really want a deal. They are playing for time, betting political and economic pressure on Trump will force concessions or make him walk away. 1/ Keane: Keep the blockade, but go back to military operations. When the ceasefire began, about two weeks of assigned objectives still remained.

Central Command has doubled its capability, Israel has replenished munitions, and the next campaign can be far more aggressive. 2/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine is opening exports of drones, missiles, ammunition and combat software.

The format is called Drone Deals — special intergovernmental agreements on the production and supply of Ukrainian weapons to partners. 1/ Zelenskyy: How it works: first an intergovernmental agreement is signed on the basis of reciprocity, defining the framework for cooperation.

Then work begins at the level of state institutions and manufacturers. Bureaucratic procedures are simplified but export controls are maintained. 2/

NATO is trying to rearm for war with Russia — but after 30 years of neglect, there’s nothing to buy.

Wait times for tanks, jets, and Patriot systems stretch up to 7 years, even as €800B sits ready to be spent, Times. 1/ Money is no longer the problem — production is.

“We know what we need to buy, but we can’t buy it because there are empty shelves,” NATO’s former top military officer says. 2/

Russia will hold its May 9 Victory Day parade without military hardware for the first time in nearly 20 years.

Tanks, missile systems, and ground equipment are removed due to the “current operational situation” — a reference to the war in Ukraine, The Moscow Times. 1/ The Red Square parade has been Russia’s main show of military power.

Last year it featured new tanks, drones, and troops returning from Ukraine, attended by 20+ foreign leaders including Xi Jinping. 2/

Putin: More than 71,000 men from Chechnya are fighting in the “special military operation”, and more than 20,000 of them are volunteers.

They are fighting for Russia and for their small beloved motherland, Chechnya.

[Putin openly presenting Chechnya as war manpower.] 1/ Putin: The birth rate in Chechnya is very high. This is good. Many other republics and regions of Russia should take Chechnya as an example.

If everyone had such a birth rate, we would not have demographic problems and challenges. 2X

Project Maven turned AI into the Pentagon’s targeting engine. It's pushing warfare toward machine-built kill lists.

The U.S. is close to strikes where humans only rubber-stamp the algorithm.

Maven’s feed helped Ukrainian units identify tens of thousands of targets, — NYT. 1/ The Pentagon’s autonomous-weapons rule requires “appropriate levels of human judgment” over force.

It never defines who decides what “appropriate” means. 2/

Fiona Hill: The United States is no longer the ally it was before.

We are living in a post-America world in which countries are searching for alternatives, regional orders, and new platforms for cooperation because Washington now swings wildly back and forth. 1/ Hill: NATO is not Trump’s private army.

If the US wants allies engaged, it has to consult them. Instead Trump wanted surprise, bragged about it, then swung between asking for help and saying he did not need it. That has deepened the split. 2/

Fiona Hill: Trump still does not really listen to experts.

In the Iran crisis, he is sending out people with little high-level negotiating experience while believing he knows better than everybody. His gut, not expertise, is what drives decisions. 1/ Hill: Tactically the US campaign has been successful. Strategically it is a blunder because Trump did not understand Iran.

He assumed a top-down system like Russia or China, but Iran is resilient, deeply embedded, and full of people fighting for their lives. 2/

King Charles III: Ukraine and her most courageous people need that same unyielding resolve we showed after 9/11 for their defense. 1/ King Charles III: Whatever our differences, we [UK and US] stand united to uphold democracy, protect our people, and honor those who risk their lives in service.

Our relationship spans not just 250 years, but more than four centuries. 2/

A pastry chef from Bucha spends her days making cakes — and her nights shooting down Russian drones.

Lyudmyla Lysenko joined a volunteer air defense unit after returning to a destroyed city in April 2022. “Bucha looked like a zombie apocalypse,” — UkrPravda. 1/ By day she holds a mixer. By night — a machine gun.

She now commands a mobile fire group in the “Bucha Witches,” a unit created in 2024 to hunt Shahed drones over Kyiv region. 2/

Europe says it fears war with Russia. But still hesitates to bring Ukraine in.

It approved €90B in loans, yet blocks EU membership. The Economist: The risk of letting Ukraine in looks big. The risk of keeping it out is bigger. 1/ Ukraine brings hard power.

800,000 troops and battlefield-tested drone systems that turned the front into a “death zone” for Russian forces. Europe needs that capacity now. 2/

Mood in Russia turns bleak.

Putin’s support is falling as war fatigue, economic decline, and repression converge.

Approval dropped to 65.6%, down 12.2pp this year. Economy shrank 1.8% in 2 months. Interest rates peaked above 20%. Businesses owe $109B in unpaid bills, WP. 1/ “This has been going on longer than World War II… and we can’t even take one region,” a Russian official says.

War enters year 5 with no decisive gains, while talks stall and expectations of quick victory collapse. 2/

Trump’s Iran war is pumping billions into Russia’s war machine.

Russia earned €713M per day from fossil fuels in Mar and collected €7.4B in taxes — a 2-year high as oil prices surged >50% after the war began, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Sanctions pressure weakened at the same time.

The US eased restrictions on Russian energy exports for 2 months to stabilize markets, allowing Moscow to sell more oil at higher prices with smaller discounts. 2/