$129 million a month. That is what Russia’s steel lobby wants to remove from the budget in tax relief.

Bloomberg: Moscow faces mounting corporate rescue demands as wartime spending strains state finances. 1/ A steel industry group asks to scrap the raw steel excise and iron ore extraction tax. The move would cost about $129M per month. Profits at top steelmakers have fallen, though they remain globally profitable with low debt. 2/

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin: Russia’s war against Ukraine is criminal aggression, and Russians can love their country while supporting Ukraine’s defense. 1/ Buterin: Two arguments are used to justify the invasion — Russia’s right to block NATO expansion, and claims that Russian speakers in Crimea and Donbas needed protection. Neither explains launching a full-scale invasion in 2022. 2/

The Moscow Times: After Russian frontline units lost access to Starlink, Ukrainian forces regained the village of Kosivtseve in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to a NATO official in Brussels. 1/ This month, SpaceX disconnected Starlink terminals near the front at Ukraine’s request after Kyiv reported Russian forces were using them to receive commands, coordinate assaults, and pilot drones. 2/

EU’s top court adviser says the Commission was wrong to release €10B to Hungary in Dec 2023.

If judges follow the opinion, Budapest may have to repay the money, Politico. 1/ The funds had been frozen over rule-of-law concerns.

The European Parliament argues the Commission unfroze them on the eve of a key EU summit — when leaders needed Viktor Orbán’s support on Ukraine aid. 2/

Zelenskyy for The Atlantic: Ending the war is also a path to success for Republicans. The most advantageous moment for Trump is before the midterms.

Yes, Trump wants fewer deaths. But if we’re honest, it’s also a political victory for him.

1/ Zelenskyy: There is no greater victory for Trump than stopping the war between Russia and Ukraine. For his legacy, it’s No. 1.

2/

Putin tightens the grip of dictatorship. Russia has erased WhatsApp from its internet.

Roskomnadzor removed the Meta-owned app — used by at least 100M Russians — from the national registry, making access nearly impossible without VPN workarounds, FT. 1/ It’s a deeper block than past slowdowns.

By Dec, WhatsApp traffic had already been throttled 70-80%. Now Moscow appears to be cutting access long-term — after labeling Meta platforms “extremist” and degrading YouTube. 2/

Finland’s DM Antti Häkkänen: Russia shows no will for peace. It fights, while losing heavily on the battlefield and suffering economically.

We must increase support for Ukraine and tighten sanctions. The West must show Putin we are not backing down.

1/ Häkkänen: Arctic defense and deterrence are about the security of the entire Alliance, including North America.

‘Arctic Sentry’ is a good start, but much more needs to be done.

For Finland, the Arctic has always been crucial to European security.

2/

Ian Bremmer, President at Eurasia Group: Russia's dug its own grave. They've dug hundreds of thousands over the last 4 years in Ukraine.

They are weaker. Their economy, security, diplomacy is weaker. They're becoming a second rate state that has to follow China's lead. 1/ Bremmer: The global economy today is increasingly multipolar while the security environment is still dominated by the US.

Even if you don't trust the US as a security ally, you don't have many good options. Europeans are buying American weapons. 2/

The IOC disqualified Ukrainian skeleton racer Vladyslav Heraskevych from the Winter Games minutes before his race.

Vladyslav Heraskevych's "helmet of remembrance" honors the two dozen Ukrainian athletes killed since Russia's invasion, Reuters. 1/ The IOC ruled it violated Rule 50.2, which bans political messaging on the field of play.

Heraskevych: “They were killed, but their voice is so loud that the IOC is afraid of them.” 2/

NATO's PURL initiative hit $4.5B in commitments to buy US weapons for Ukraine — led by Germany, Netherlands, and Norway.

More pledges expected when defense ministers meet in Brussels Feb 12 — United24. 1/ US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker called Germany, Netherlands, and Norway "PURL champions" for making significant contributions and pushing other allies to follow. Their leadership is driving the program forward. 2/

Sanctions have sent Russia's foreign trade to Soviet-era lows.

Exports now make up just 17.8% of GDP — the lowest in modern Russian history and comparable to the USSR's final years before collapse — United24. 1/ Exports fell from 22.2% of GDP in 2024 to 17.8% in 2025. Imports dropped from 17.8% to 15.2%. Compare that to pre-war levels when exports were typically 25-30% of GDP. 2/

Russian opposition figure Kara-Murza in WP: Russians have returned to PACE to shape what Russia must look like after Putin and to draft a roadmap for democratic transition

The Council of Europe admitted 15 anti-war Russian opposition figures, four years after expelling Russia.1/ The delegates replace former Kremlin MPs like Pyotr Tolstoy and ex-ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Petra Bayr, President of the Assembly, opened the session by stating: “Russia is not only a regime.” 2/

Europe must build its own army to counter Putin. The continent has 450 million people — yet it cannot defend itself without the U.S., writes Max Bergmann in FA.

Raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP will not replace American ground power in Europe. 1/ In its 2025 National Security Strategy, the Trump administration signaled that the U.S. no longer sees itself as Europe’s long-term security guarantor.

Washington reduced support for Ukraine, imposed tariffs on allies, and questioned NATO’s future role. 2/

$1.1B flowed from the state budget into the pockets of ministers, police generals and judges. Now Russia claws it back.

Over 5–7 years, authorities seized 100B rubles in corruption cases.

In total, the state grabbed 4T rubles ($44B) in assets. It sold only 8%. ––Moscow Times.1/ Example: billionaire Konstantin Strukov.

The state seized his gold company Yuzhuralzoloto. He had funded United Russia for years. Now he sits in pretrial detention. 2/

Former CIA Director Petraeus: Ukraine plans to produce 7 million drones this year, compared to roughly 300,000 in the US. It’s at the forefront of modern warfare.

If you want to see the future of war, come to Ukraine — on both sides, innovation is moving fast.

1/ Petraeus: Ukraine’s innovation is extraordinary. I’ve never seen anything like it. The speed at which new drone capabilities are deployed is remarkable.

It has helped offset Russia’s advantages — five times more manpower and an economy 10–15 times larger.

2/

Former CIA Director Petraeus: I said from the start Russia would not take Kyiv. Others predicted it would fall in 3–5 days. Kyiv is a vast city with brave defenders.

It would be extremely hard to break in — and Ukraine’s actions denied Russia the airfield north of the capital.1/ Petraeus: The Budapest Memorandum was a major failure.

Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK and those guarantees weren’t upheld. This is Ukraine’s war for independence — a fight for its very survival.

2/

Former CIA Director Petraeus: When about 20 drones violated Polish airspace, Warsaw didn’t call Brussels or Washington, it called Kyiv.

Ukraine is the most advanced in building a “drone wall,” showing how to defend vast front lines.

1/ Petraeus: I don’t think Russia will move against a NATO country until it achieves its aims in Ukraine — and likely takes Moldova next.

Russian troops remain in Transnistria. After that, a Baltic state, possibly Lithuania, could be targeted.

2X

I really tried to listen to the lecture, but all I heard was a woman crying against the wall near me.

A mother crying, searching for her son.

And my own mother’s voice: ‘Hold on, another rocket is coming’ — Yuliia, a KSE student in Ukraine, Kyiv.

1/ Yuliia: We fled Kharkiv on day one of the invasion.

That’s how my life of endless rented apartments and new schools began.

Ivano-Frankivsk felt calm — until a missile hit a university on my street and power cuts lasted 16 hours a day.

2/

Angela Stent, Former National Intel Officer: Every time Witkoff claims progress on Ukraine, the next day Putin or Lavrov restate the same demands — withdrawal from Donbas and “denazification”.

They also cite an “Anchorage formula” no US official confirms. It’s obfuscation. 1/ Stent: Russia's negotiations are entirely performative.

They follow Soviet and post-Soviet tactics: negotiate to create a process and wear people down. Putin wants to humor Trump to avoid more punitive actions from the US administration. 2X

Former Amb. to Ukraine, William Taylor: Putin can't break Ukraine’s will. He’s tried for 4 years.

They don’t show signs of breaking. Soldiers, civilians, people in and out of government know that if they lose, there’s no Ukraine. They have to win and stop the Russians. 1/ Taylor: We want to see Ukrainians stop the Russians. Europeans want the same because Russia is a clear threat to them.

They’re stepping up with a $100B loan and continued funds. If big neighbors invade little ones and prevail, that’s not the world we want to live in. 2/

Macron: Russian energy stopped in 2022. There is no way back.

China as a supermarket for our export is over, and during the past 2 years we were overwhelmed by the Chinese export.

The US is imposing tariffs on us and a series of economic coercion mechanisms. 1/ Macron: End of Russia as a permanent provider of local energy. End of China as a main export market. The US is imposing tariffs on our economy and a coercion mechanism.

This is a game changer. This is not just a transition. None of these factors will change in the short run. 2/