Three myths block Ukraine from NATO: “no expansion promise,” “Russia attacks because of NATO” and “Ukraine provoked the war”

All false: Gorbachev denied any promise, Russia attacked a neutral Ukraine and the US opposed NATO entry before the invasion, Getmanchuk for Telegraph. 1/ The real barrier is not reforms. It is fear of Russia.

NATO countries hold back membership because of Moscow — not because Ukraine isn’t ready. 2/

Ukraine must allow drone exports to Gulf countries now — they are ready to buy. Strike while the iron is hot.

Subject to export controls, of course, and Ukraine national security interests. 1/ Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince told FT in '07: “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” 2/

Ukraine built a layered system to beat $50k Iranian drones — and is now exporting it.

Shahed: 1,500-mile range, 115 mph, 40 kg warhead, launched from trucks. Cheap, GPS-guided, mass-produced.

Gulf states initially countered them with $1M Patriots, Telegraph. 1/ Gulf states initially used $1M Patriot interceptors against $30k drones. They burned high-end missiles on low-cost drones.

Ukraine couldn’t afford that — it had to redesign air defense under constraint. So it built a cheaper, scalable air defense architecture from scratch. 2/

Elon Musk was on a Trump-Modi call about the Iran war — and neither Washington nor New Delhi said so publicly.

Two U.S. officials confirmed that a private businessman was on the call as the Strait of Hormuz crisis rattled oil markets — NYT. 1/ The call focused on Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The halt to most maritime traffic there has pushed energy prices higher, roiled markets, and brought some Asian countries close to fuel rationing. 2/

Ukraine is turning war into export.

Zelenskyy secured air defense deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE — selling anti-drone expertise built under Russian attacks.

Shift from aid recipient to security provider, NYT. 1/ The product is experience.

Ukraine spent 4 years shooting down tens of thousands of Iranian Shaheds. Now that know-how is in demand as the same drones hit the Gulf. 2/

Ukraine says NATO is still blocking its membership — because of Putin.

Ambassador Alyona Getmanchuk: “Allies are too receptive to the Kremlin’s imperial fantasies,” keeping Kyiv out of the alliance despite years of war, Telegraph. 1/ Official reasons vary — corruption, lack of consensus.

Getmanchuk: “The real reason is political restraint shaped by Moscow’s demands, not Ukraine’s readiness.” 2/

Ukraine is becoming a top security exporter.

Ukraine's air defense now shoots down 900+ drones and missiles daily.

In one attack, Russia launched 999 targets in a day — Ukraine stopped most of them. Now other countries are asking Kyiv for this system — United24. 1/ In February, Ukrainian interceptor drones shot down 10,000 Russian UAVs. Ukraine built and deployed this system during the war.

A few years ago, interceptor drones did not exist in real combat at this scale. Now they operate daily. 2/

Ukraine killed Putin’s plan to make billions from the Iran war.

After the Iran war lifted prices, Moscow was earning $760M/day from energy. So, Ukraine hit Russia's largest Baltic oil port — Ust-Luga, cutting into that cash flow by targeting export infrastructure, Telegraph. 1/ Drones flew 620 miles through multiple air defense layers before hitting storage tanks and loading systems — visible from Finland. 2/

Musk’s 5-step framework for how to build effective systems:

Step 1 — make your requirements less dumb.

It doesn’t matter who gave them, even smart people. Everyone is wrong sometimes. Always question requirements, or you risk optimizing something flawed from the start. 1/ Musk: Step 2 — delete parts or processes.

If you’re not adding things back occasionally, you’re not deleting enough. Bias toward adding “just in case” is dangerous. Simplicity matters, especially in complex systems like reusable rockets. 2/

For 471 days, Ukrainian sergeant Serhiy Tyshchenko, 46, lived in a mud bunker dug under an asphalt road near Bakhmut.

Russian dead bodies piled up near the entrance. “We climbed over them and threw soil on them to kill the stink” he says. “But it never goes”, The Independent. 1/ Tyshchenko says he arrived at the position when Biden was US president.

By the time he left, a new US leader was in charge and was “trying to persuade Ukraine to give up the land” he had defended for 471 days. 2/

A Russian extremist groomed a British teenager to bomb a synagogue in Newcastle.

A 16-year-old searched the site on Google Maps, bought chemicals for explosives, watched bomb-making videos and planned to film the attack.

Police arrested him before he acted, The Telegraph. 1/ A Russian-speaking user on Telegram, claiming to lead a banned group, urged him to act.

He offered guidance on planning, scouting targets and methods, framing the attack as something that would “benefit” his community. 2/

German Defence Chief, Breuer: In 2029, Russia could wage a major war against a NATO country.

It is building up its military to a strength nearly doubling from before the war against Ukraine.

I've never experienced a situation that dangerous like it is today. 1/ Breuer: Capabilities Europe needs to acquire in the next 3 to 4 years: drones, precision strike, and space capabilities. These are the most urgent needs.

We put them on a prioritized list, and we are working it. We are good on our way to do so. 2/

Rubio and Kallas clashed at the G7 over Russia.

Kallas confronted Rubio, asking when the U.S. would get tougher on Moscow.

Rubio snapped back, saying the U.S. is already doing everything it can and telling her to “go ahead” if Europe thinks it can do better - Axios. 1/ Kallas reminded Rubio he had said a year earlier the U.S. would ramp up pressure if Russia blocked peace efforts.

“A year has passed and Russia hasn’t moved. When will your patience run out?” 2/

Ukraine is close to a cash crunch for the war. Funding to cover spending only until June — 2 months runway.

If money doesn’t arrive, Kyiv may face a choice it tried to avoid: the central bank financing the budget, Bloomberg. 1/ In practice, a “cash crunch” means salaries for troops and public workers, basic state services and the war’s essentials, like air defense and drones, start getting underfunded.

Zelenskyy’s warning is no money — the army feels it. 2/

Russia is trying to reduce contact with the outside world. It’s starting to look like a war-time Iran model: closed, controllable, security-first.

In early March, mobile internet in Moscow and St. Petersburg was blocked on FSB orders — almost 3 weeks, Economist. 1/ In Moscow, the social contract is: no civic freedom, but daily life works via apps.

Then suddenly parents can’t message kids, parking can’t be paid, couriers can’t deliver, taxis revert to phone calls. 2/

Cheap tech changed war. Weaker countries can now stop stronger ones. Ukraine proved it — drones slowed a much larger Russian army.

Michael Kimmage for NYT: Neither side won. Ukraine held on, but Russia’s economy endured — turning the war into a long, costly stalemate. 1/ Ukraine held off a bigger force. Russia’s economy didn’t collapse. The result is a long, costly war with no clear winner.

This is a new model of war. High intensity. Long duration. No decisive outcome. The West gave Ukraine enough to survive — not enough to win. 2/

This is a Ukrainian veteran, Serhii Pomahaibo (46).

In August 2022, a gunshot shrapnel wound to the head near Kherson. Open brain trauma. Coma.

His wife was told he was dead. She didn't believe it. She searched hospitals until she found him in intensive care in Odesa. 1/ When doctors let her in for one minute, she touched his hand and spoke to him. He opened his eyes. Tears rolled down his face.

A monitor showed brain activity that wasn't there before.

Serhii recognized her. That was the moment his fight for recovery began. 2/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine has a system everyone now recognizes, and nothing like it exists in the world today.

It combines everything: electronic warfare, small air defense, mid-range. A systemic approach to countering Shaheds has become the key global challenge. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia definitely helps Iran.

Ukraine, in turn, provides precise expertise to other countries, especially on protecting civilian infrastructure and people from attacks. 2X

Keane on Iran: We're [US] in the red zone. We're on the 20-yard line. This is conditions-based — the enemy has a vote. About three more weeks to finish the operation.

We will accomplish all of the objectives Trump has given CENTCOM. 1/ Keane: Iran's leadership is in chaos. The paranoia is real, the chaotic decision-making is real.

We are fragmenting that leadership and we have weeks to do more of that. They are trying to survive personally and keep the regime intact. That is an enormous problem for them. 2/

About 250 destroyed targets. I don’t personally keep count. –– Yeva Yunga, FPV drone operator, joined the army at 18.

These include enemy infantry and various equipment, especially artillery. Hitting those makes life much easier for our infantry and for us.

1/ Yunga: As a woman, the hardest part was signing the contract — I had 8–9 interviews while men had one.

No one wanted responsibility for a “kid” in a combat unit. They needed to be sure I understood — many join for ideas, but don’t realize how quickly reality hits.

2/

Russia poured $11.8B into occupied Ukrainian territories in 2024–2026 — 3x more than the combined development funds for 20 other Russian regions — Reuters.

The money is permanently building occupied Ukraine into Russia — ahead of any peace deal. 1/ Reuters analyzed thousands of satellite images using a machine-learning model.

Result: 2,500+ km of railroads, highways and roads newly built or upgraded across occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson since 2022. 2/