Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: It is now easier and cheaper to reach a person or object deep in the rear than to move the front line by 20 meters.

New weapons shift war from destroying military potential to destroying the state itself. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: Cheap, mass weapons with no reliable physical protection have changed war.

They allow any state — or even organization — to use new force against any opponent. The line between front and rear has almost disappeared. 2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine can no longer be part of any gray zone.

Our experience shows that if you agree to become a buffer zone, you should wait for war. It is already moving toward you — first hidden, then openly. 1/ Zaluzhnyi: In a war where the price is the life of an entire nation, compromise may simply stop existing.

You cannot be a little killed or half alive — and you cannot accept conditions that mean helping finish off your own state. 2/

Bolton: The only way to deal with Iran on oil and Hormuz is for the U.S. and Gulf Arabs to force the Strait open.

That is how you restore deterrence against Tehran turning access on and off like a light switch. 1/ Bolton: The six-week ceasefire benefited only Iran.

It let the regime get back up, dig out arsenals and storage sites, and reportedly restart drone production, maybe ballistic missiles too. That shows the IRGC’s real mission is regime survival. 2/

Bolton: Ukrainian strikes inside Russia undercut Kremlin propaganda.

They show ordinary Russians the war is not going well — not only by causing real military damage, but by making the reality of the war visible on Russian territory. 1/ Bolton: Russia expected significant territorial gains this spring, and that has not happened.

If anything, Russia has lost territory in Ukraine. By August or September, Putin may need another plan because the current strategy is not working. 2/

Kasparov: Russians are not angry because Russia committed a crime against Ukraine. They are angry because Putin cannot win.

They do not criticize him for killing Ukrainians — they criticize him for killing too few and too slowly. 1/ Kasparov: Russian history forgives tsars and dictators for war, repression and violence as long as the state looks strong.

But a war that starts and is not won always leads to shocks. Eventually comes the phrase: the tsar is not real. 2/

Kasparov: Ukraine hits targets tied to Russia’s war machine, not civilians. Russia hunts civilians to terrorize and break morale.

Ukraine hits military logistics. These are two fundamentally different concepts of war — and now it happens almost every night. 1/ Kasparov: The strikes on Moscow have huge psychological meaning. War has returned to the place where it started.

Putin kept Moscow calm for four years while war became profitable business; now that illusion is breaking — and politically dangerous. 2/

Russia is firing Soviet missiles containing depleted uranium into Ukrainian villages.

After a strike in Chernihiv Oblast, Ukrainian investigators found radiation levels 40-240x above normal background near an unexploded R-60 missile, The Telegraph. 1/ Ukraine’s SBU says the missile contained Uranium-235 and Uranium-238.

Investigators recorded gamma radiation at 12 microsieverts per hour. Normal background levels range between 0.05 and 0.3. 2/

Russia pledges to support Cuba after Trump openly talked about taking the island and the DOJ charged former president Raúl Castro.

Kremlin condemned the US for "blackmail" and "gross interference" in Cuba's affairs and promised Havana "active support," Politico. 1/ The US moves to block Venezuelan oil shipments and punish foreign companies working with Havana triggered severe fuel shortages and blackouts across Cuba. 2/

Russia’s war machine increasingly runs on Chinese components, Chinese drones, Chinese machine tools, and Chinese chemicals — while Beijing officially claims neutrality.

Putin arrived in Beijing as the dependent partner, The Economist. 1/ Chinese semiconductors and microelectronics are now critical for Russian missile and drone production.

They power precision-guided weapons striking Ukrainian cities, while China also dominates the FPV drone supply chain Russia relies on. 2/

Ukraine is launching one of its largest security operations near Belarus since the start of the war amid fears Russia may again try to attack Kyiv from the north.

The operation involves the military and SBU across border regions with Belarus and Russia, Bloomberg. 1/ Ukraine says agents will search buildings, inspect vehicles, restrict movement, and hunt for spies and sabotage groups.

The SBU calls the operation “unprecedented in scale” in personnel and resources deployed. 2/

Iran is the new Vietnam, and Ukraine is the new Korea.

Trump compressed 5 years of LBJ's Vietnam policy into 2 months on Iran and moved to Nixon's playbook of bluster and extrication via an unsatisfying deal — Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Iran ends like Vietnam in 1973, with an unstable compromise that stops the fighting but punts the hard questions.

The deal leaves the fate of the Iranian regime and its nuclear program for another day. 2/

Putin wants to end the war by the end of 2026. But only with full control of Donbas and Europe's acknowledgment of Russia's territorial gains.

Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. Kremlin officials believe the conflict has reached a dead end, — Bloomberg.

1/ Ukraine's casualty ratio improved to roughly one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian troops — Finnish President Stubb said last month.

Rubio confirmed May 13: Ukraine now has Europe's "most powerful armed forces."

2/

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink: Trump’s decision to suspend military aid endangered not just Ukrainians — but American embassy staff too.

Brink: “We are seven hours ahead and almost every night we are in a bunker,” — Suspilne. 1/ Brink had 1,000 civilian staff at the embassy in Kyiv. They were protected by Ukrainian air defense running on American equipment.

When Trump suspended aid, those same systems stopped receiving ammunition. No warning was given. 2/

Browder: How does Putin afford to keep fighting after four years? Oil and oil products. That is where the money comes from.

If we want to stop the invasion, we take away his money — and that means stopping Russia’s oil sales. 1/ Browder: Pausing sanctions does not create new jet fuel. Russia can still sell under sanctions — it just gets a lower price.

Removing pressure only redistributes profit back to Moscow. It does not solve shortages; it gives Putin more money. 2/

Kellogg: Trump has been extremely measured with Iran, but negotiations should be broken off.

Seize Kharg Island. It controls 90% of Iran’s economy, puts the whole country at risk, especially the leadership, and creates leverage fast. 1/ Kellogg: Take the command-and-control hub for the Strait, put Marines there, line up Avenger-class minesweepers, and escort ships out on the Omani side.

Clear the Strait, take control of the situation, and stop trusting the IRGC. 2/

Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.

It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/ Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.

The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/

Budanov: Russia is building a digital ghetto.

It wants to control people, complicate Ukrainian intelligence work, and prepare society for serious decisions that may be unpopular or hard to explain. That is why it cuts off alternative information. 1/ Budanov: Russia is replacing reality. In Moscow, there is a whole “museum of Ukrainian Nazism.”

It has nothing to do with reality, but it is built logically and professionally. A person who sees it can believe it — that is the danger. 2/

Budanov: Russia’s goals keep moving lower under pressure from reality. First it was “Kyiv in three days.”

After almost four years, it became “Donbas at any cost.” Now the new goal is Ukraine outside military alliances and without nuclear status. 1/ Budanov: Russia’s leadership lives in numbers, charts, economic and geopolitical forecasts — and those forecasts look bad for them.

There is no real optimism at the top. That is why their public narratives keep changing. 2/

Putin came to Beijing weaker than at his last visit. Moscow took 500+ drones three days earlier. Russia lost net territory last month for the first time since Aug 2024.

With Middle East crude squeezed, Xi now extracts energy on Beijing's terms — CNN. 1/ Xi rolled out the red carpet anyway. Honor guard, gun salute, children with flags. The same welcome Trump received days earlier.

The substance diverged. Trump left without a joint statement. Putin signed one. 2/

Xi got Trump to hedge on a multibillion-dollar Taiwan arms sale and gave up nothing in return.

After 43 hours in Beijing, Trump said he had not decided whether to proceed with the sale — Washington Post. 1/ Xi pursued stability above all else.

He framed the summit as a "constructive, strategically stable relationship." Chinese state media said the framework should guide US-China ties through Trump's term and beyond. 2/

Russia's stalled offensive runs on North Korean shells, North Korean missiles, and North Korean blood.

Pyongyang has shipped up to $14.4B in arms and 15,000 troops since Aug 2023 — Bloomberg. 1/ Russia pays mostly in sensitive military technology and precision components.

Russia also helped build two North Korean destroyers and upgraded Pyongyang's electronic warfare and jamming systems. 2/