Fukuyama on Trump's Iran deal: This was not a win. It was a total US capitulation, merely solving a problem that Trump and Netanyahu themselves created by launching the war in the first place.

No regime change. No surrender. The IRGC is more firmly in control than ever before 1/ Fukuyama: No commitment to stop enriching uranium. No commitment to ending support for Hezbollah or Houthis. No agreement on protesters. All kicked down the road into 60-day negotiations.

Trump treated these issues as already conceded. But if so — why weren't they in the MOU? 2/

Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/ Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/

Browder: If Putin ends this war, the Russian people will say, why did you get us into this mess? What have we accomplished? What have we lost?

They would remove him from power. And if he is removed from power, he ends up dying. Jailed, money taken, hung from a lamp post. 1/ Browder: The Ukrainians cannot give up either. If they do, the Russians occupy their territory, rape the women, kill the men, and kidnap the children.

Both sides have fundamentally different reasons for not stopping — but neither side can afford to stop fighting this war. 2/

Hodges: I was surprised Trump agreed to a fairly strong G7 statement on Ukraine.

He hasn't even been able to say Russia is the aggressor, that they're the bad guy. So I was pleased to see he at least agreed with the other G7 members. But we will see if it holds. 1/ Hodges: What we should be hearing from the president and his entire team is this: it is in the best interest of America and Europe that Ukraine defeats Russia, and that Russia has to live inside their own borders.

That is what is in the best interest of all of us. 2/

Snyder: Russia's 2022 war plan was not a military plan, it was a political plan. It assumed Ukraine is artificial, not real, invented by the West. Within days they expected to be in Kyiv.

Not because of military calculation, because they believed no one would fight back. 1/ Snyder: Putin read intelligence through a worldview where Ukraine isn't real. Agents promised support once troops came. In that framework — invade and everyone sides with you.

All that money paid to agents led to nothing. People in Ukraine were politically Ukrainian. 2/

Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.

Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/ Macron: Every three months, Western and Russian analysts predict Ukraine will finally collapse.

Every three months, they are proven categorically wrong. Ukraine is resisting with stunning innovation and a military production capacity that no one anticipated. 2/

Applebaum: Putin has presented a fake image of Russia to the world. He talks about leading a traditional society

In reality, divorce is very high, abortion is common, very few Russians go to church and less than 5% have ever read a Bible. It's not a traditional culture at all 1/ Applebaum: Part of the European right and the American right have this imaginary Russia they use as a political symbol — not understanding it has no relationship to reality.

Most people who admire Russia haven't even been to Moscow or St. Petersburg, let alone the rest of the country. 2/

Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.

They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/ Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.

Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/

Applebaum: Putin doesn't want to end the war — he wants to win it. Winning still means the same thing it always meant: occupying Ukraine, changing the government, making Ukraine a satellite of Russia.

Donbas is where he'd start, but he's never given up the bigger idea. 1/ Applebaum: The only deal possible with Putin is to convince him he can't win — through military pressure and sanctions. Trump hasn't been willing to do that.

He's actually stopped aiding Ukraine militarily. He has no leverage over Russia and can't convince them of anything. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: The Americans haven't left the negotiations — they've hit a dead end. No ability to break Ukraine, no desire to break Russia.

If Ukrainians keep winning on the battlefield, the question is how fast Americans will want to join the success story. 1/ Kuleba: Zelenskyy's letter to Russians — right move, right timing, right content. Like fertilizer in soil: it changes nothing in the moment.

But it sows seeds of doubt, hesitation, anger, and protest inside Russia. It was an investment in Russia's negative future. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: In Ukraine, there's not a single sane politician who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. Not one.

In Poland, many politicians build their rating on anti-Ukrainian slogans. That's the fundamental difference between our countries. 1/ Kuleba: The PiS party took the Volyn topic and weaponized it for decades. Films were made, historians wrote books, politicians talked about it nonstop.

You can't come out now and say 'let's forget it.' It's already living tissue of Polish society. It won't just go away. 2/

Russia is preparing to import gasoline by sea from Asia. One of the world's largest oil exporters can no longer cover its domestic demand.

Ukrainian drone strikes hit the TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk and the Moscow refinery, suspending processing at both, Reuters. 1/ Fuel shortages span around a dozen Russian regions. Russian-held Crimea and two Siberian regions have confirmed supply problems.

Moscow banned gasoline exports until the end of July to preserve domestic supply during the peak summer driving season. 2/

Prof. Michael Clarke: This [US-Iran deal] is not a peace deal. It is an exchange of memoranda, basically an agreement to keep talking for 60 days under a ceasefire.

Trump is selling it as a breakthrough, but it is only a pathway toward a possible deal. 1/ Clarke: Iran may not sign on Trump’s timetable. Tehran has every reason to delay, embarrass him, and show it is not playing to his agenda.

Iran has a long memory for humiliating U.S. presidents through timing. 2/

Rutte: Ukraine is killing or seriously wounding 30,000–35,000 Russians a month. The front line is stable, Russian advances halted.

Russia has growing problems refilling the gaps in its armed forces, not just to advance, but to maintain the fight in Ukraine. 1/ Rutte: These numbers are staggering. 30,000–35,000 a month means Russia loses in 3 weeks what it lost in Afghanistan in 10 years in the 1980s.

In 5 weeks, Russia loses what America lost in Vietnam in 15 years. That's what Ukraine is inflicting on Russia's military right now. 2/

Ukraine left the G7 with Trump backing oil sanctions on Russia instead of leaning on Kyiv.

Europe helps Trump stabilize his Iran deal and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz.

This is transactional diplomacy — Politico. 1/ G7 leaders arrived in France expecting a fight over Iran, Ukraine and the next NATO summit.

They left more upbeat after Trump signaled readiness to increase pressure on Putin and keep working with allies. 2/

Russia may have lost more than 70% of its combat-ready Tu-22M3 bombers since 2022.

Around 33–34 were combat-ready before the full-scale invasion. Today, only 9–10 may remain operational.

Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 in June 2025. — U24.

1/ Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya, Belaya and Dyagilevo airbases in June 2025.

Three more crashed in the Irkutsk region alone — in 2024, 2025, and now June 2026. In total, Russia may have lost or had damaged 24 of these bombers since 2022.

2/

Timothy Snyder: The memory war is far more comfortable for Polish politicians than the real one.

They get to say: we're right, we're innocent. I know the history. But you start with what's happening now, not memory. Skip that, and you start from a falsehood.

1/ Snyder: Treat Ukrainians as partners and allies — even when they make mistakes.

Remember that every day they lose people in this war, partly so that Poland can keep living normally.

2/

Putin says Ukraine must give up Zaporizhzhia region.

DeepState: Russia controls slightly more than 2/3 of the region.

But on the strategically important Orikhiv axis, Russian forces have had no major success since April, — Babel.
1/ Russian forces are about 20 km from Zaporizhzhia in some areas of the front.
They launch over 800 strikes on the city every day, mostly with FPV drones. Their closest positions are now from the Stepnohirsk direction.
2/

Holger Neumann, chief of the German air force: We are ready to fight Russia tonight if Moscow attacks any NATO ally.

We will go in with everything we have, in the air force and across NATO, to defend our country, our population, and our alliance — The Telegraph. 1/ Neumann: It must be clear, there are no zones of different security. NATO is NATO, down to the last inch.
We have to make a very strong effort to over watch and, if required, act along certain regions. 2/

Ukraine is sealing Crimea off from land and sea. In mid-June, drones struck the bridges at Chonhar, Henichesk, Myrne, and Armyansk, the links to the mainland.

Robert Brovdi, commander of Unmanned Systems Forces: “Ukraine will fully isolate it soon”— United24. 1/ Ukraine is closing the sea routes too. Naval drones wait around Crimea, block shipping, and have hit several ferries. Some now launch their own drones and strike aerial targets.

The fuel shortage runs so deep that Russian mobile teams lack the petrol to hunt those drones. 2/

A Russian soldier kept Sofia, Ukrainian, for over a year as a sex prisoner — holding her in a flat with bars on the balcony, boarded-up windows, locked doors, and padlocks.

He took her phone, left food, and returned there only to rape her — The Times. 1/ She was 21. She lived with her disabled mother and two younger brothers in a village in Kharkiv region. When Russian troops occupied it, one soldier began harassing her. She refused. 2/