Kasparov: Putin has vast capacity to create chaos in Europe. He wouldn’t even need to cross a border.

A few drones over key hubs, Frankfurt, Schiphol, De Gaulle, Heathrow, could paralyze European air travel. The West hasn’t shown an antidote, and Russian networks are active. 1/ Kasparov: Putin could stage a major provocation this year — I can’t put a percentage on it.

But if you look at his pattern of managing conflicts, a provocation against the Baltics is very likely — drones, “green men,” crossing near Narva or Daugavpils, or both.

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Applebaum: At the same time the U.S. says it’s stepping back, it’s supporting far-right politicians and think tanks in Europe, movements that are pro-Russian, oppose defense spending, and undermine European unity.

So people ask: which is it? What is U.S. policy really?

1/ Applebaum: Nobody wants to break the NATO.

Beneath the politics, U.S.–Europe military ties are still strong — joint training, exercises, operations, intelligence cooperation. It’s not as if everything is broken.

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Zelenskyy: Ukraine will for 100% return all of its land. It’s only a matter of time.

If we do it today, we lose millions of people. And what is land without people? Nothing.

Ukraine also doesn’t have enough of the needed weapons.

1/ Zelenskyy: Donbas isn’t just a land.

I see retreat from Donbas as abandoning thousands of people, and as weakening our positions.

Giving up Donbas would divide our society.

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Former Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk: If we get a ceasefire, Ukrainians will cast ballots and elect the president. But that’s not on the radar right now.

Russians are playing this game, believing they can embroil Ukraine in domestic infight. The Ukrainian president is legitimate. 1/ Yatsenyuk: I do not see any intention on the side of Putin to cut any kind of peace deal with Ukraine. These so-called talks are a sham, with the idea to drag its feet and to outlast us. 2/

Sullivan: The Chinese leadership says the East is rising, the West is declining. They believe the US is in decline and that democracy can’t succeed in XXI century.

Xi thinks China holds the high cards and America has vulnerabilities. There is real confidence from Beijing. 1/ Sullivan on Iran: If you got a deal, you put the nuclear program in a box, you get verification, and you’re not constantly lining up to take out enriched material or centrifuges or missiles.

I hope Trump would look seriously at the diplomatic option, but it’s likely there’ll be strikes. 2/

2025 is the first year of the war in which Russian army losses exceeded recruitment. 418,000 killed or wounded vs 406,000 mobilized.

Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s main offensives — Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi for Le Monde. 1/ Syrskyi says Russia planned a large-scale 2025 offensive to seize all of Donbas, parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson, and create a buffer zone in Kharkiv and Sumy regions — but “it failed.” 2/

Four Russian FPV drones hunted down a married couple as they tried to flee occupation near Sumy.

The man pulled his wounded wife on a sledge across no man’s land. A second strike tore her apart. A fourth killed him as he knelt beside her – The Times. 1/ The couple, Valentyna and Valerii Klochkov, had hidden in their cellar for six weeks after Russian troops captured their village before Christmas.

Hunger and cold forced them out. Their bodies still lie in the snow — no one can retrieve them under drone fire. 2/

An IT mistake exposed a $90bn Russian oil network funding the war in Ukraine.

FT traced 48 traders using one private email server to mask Rosneft crude after US sanctions in Oct. 2025. It is the largest sanctions-evasion scheme uncovered so far and may trigger new sanctions. 1/ FT identified 442 web domains whose public registrations show they all use the same private email server, .

It matched those domains with Russian and Indian customs filings linking the network to more than $90bn in oil exports. 2/mx.phoenixtrading.ltd

“I left my Manhattan apartment for Ukraine’s front lines. Now I’m fighting drones.”

Viktoriia Honcharuk quit her dream job at Morgan Stanley in 2022 to become a combat medic. She evacuated up to 100 wounded soldiers a week from one of the war’s deadliest fronts, The Times. 1/ Viktoriia left Ukraine at 15 on a U.S. scholarship.

She studied at Minerva University in California, sent out 80 job applications, interned at Citibank and landed a role at Morgan Stanley in New York.

On Feb 24, 2022, she woke up to Russia’s invasion. 2/

I want to write my son’s name on a rocket, push a button, and launch it in the enemy — Serhii, member of Stepwolves.

He is too old to be officially in the army. His son died near Bakhmutm but Serhii keeps helping Ukrainian army by repairing unexploded rockets.

1/ Did: I left to fight in May 2014. I came back badly wounded. They wanted to amputate both legs, bit I was lucky.

Too old to fight, Did now leads Stepwolves — a unit of men in their mid-60s, retrieving and repairing unexploded rockets.

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Rishi Sunak: At NATO’s Hedgehog 2025 exercise, Ukrainians exposed how ill-prepared western forces are for modern war.

Germany signed a deal with Kyiv for Ukrainians to train its troops. We must change how we plan, procure and practise war - The Times. 1/ Sunak: Ukraine went from 800,000 drones in 2023 to well over 4 million last year, more than all of NATO combined.

Around 10,000 drones a day are now used on the battlefield, and many are obsolete within three months. 2/

Bill Browder: War in Ukraine is now only about Putin’s personal survival.

He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs to stay in power to stay alive. The destruction of Russia is unparalleled, but he cannot stop. If he stops, he loses everything. 1/ Browder: Putin is a historic liar, but he’s honest about one thing.

He believes Ukraine should not exist as a sovereign state. He hasn’t deviated from that for a minute. He doesn’t want compromise. He wants total and absolute victory. 2/

Why attacking Iran could be riskier than capturing Maduro?

NYT: Iran can strike U.S. bases, shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and activate proxies against American forces and allies.

“There is a real risk that there will be American lives lost,” writes Ali Vaez.  1/ In January, Trump said a U.S. “armada” was heading to Iran and compared it to the two-hour raid in Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro. Iran is not Venezuela. 2/

UK DefSec Healey: "I want to deploy British troops to Ukraine [but ...]

The only thing Ukraine fears is Western fatigue. 2026 must be the year this war ends."

Deployment would signal the war is over, and enforcement of a negotiated settlement — The Telegraph. 1/ London is planning a multinational Coalition of the Willing to guard Ukraine once a deal is secured. A 70-person HQ is already operating. £200M allocated for readiness. 2/

Boris Johnson: UK and other European nations must deploy peaceful troops in Ukraine NOW.

It will flip the switch in Putin’s mind.

We have a plan to do so after the war. Why not do it now?

1/ Boris Johnson: We were naive in 2024.

Failing to act in Crimea was tragic. Putin was emboldened by Syria, by Afghanistan, by the West looking weak.

If we had been clear and strong about Ukraine, we could have prevented the invasion.

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Witkoff: Putin has never been dishonest with me. People attack me for saying that. But it's true.

He told me what his red lines are. You can’t make a deal unless you understand the other side’s motivations and goals.

Those meetings are very relevant to getting a deal done. 1/ Witkoff: Russia-Ukraine war is a silly war. They’re fighting and arguing over territory. Everyone throws around the word dignity.

But what does dignity get you with that amount of killing? At the leadership level it’s hard for them to finish making a deal. 2/

Putin escalates the war in Ukraine.

For the first time in four years, there has been a terrorist act against civilians in Lviv. 25 wounded, 1 dead. 1/ Around 00:30 on February 22, police received a call about a break-in at a shop in central Lviv. A patrol unit arrived. An explosion followed immediately, writes Obozrevatel. 2/

DW: Yana joined Ukrainian army last year. Nastia signed up in 2023.

“I’m already used to shelling. If something is flying, I know what to do. I’m not in such a panic. I can calm some guys sitting next to me, calm down, everything is fine, it will fly by.” 1/ DW: Women face many challenges in the army, even criticism about their appearance.

“Although we serve, we’re also women. We want to be well-groomed, beautiful. Why do they care? It’s upsetting that men who would never come here write this.” 2/

FT: Russia’s total losses estimated at 325,000 killed, with 30,000-35,000 soldiers killed or seriously wounded every month.

Russia’s army is advancing slower than during the Battle of the Somme, while suffering its heaviest losses in 4 years of full-scale war. 1/ Russian offensives now move 15-70 meters per day on key axes. That pace is slower than most wars of the last 100 years and reflects sustained attrition. 2/

Kremlin is promising $12T worth of deals to Trump administration in return for sanctions relief.

Zelenskyy: “Russia has already promised these deals. One Washington insider says a package has already been agreed on” — The Economist. 1/ Before Putin met Trump in August, a note was drafted for Russia's National Security Council explaining how to sell "the Greatest Deal" to Trump.

Since April, Dmitriev, who runs a Russian state fund, has met Witkoff at least 9 times. 2/

Soldiers may lead a revolution in Russia after the war ends.

James Rogers for Times: When hundreds of thousands of russian soldiers go home, they may find no clear jobs and become a disruptive force.

We’ve seen the same: defeat to Japan in 1905, and revolution after WWI.
1/ Rogers: Putin still believes he’s winning.

The war was supposed to end in days. Russian soldiers carried dress uniforms, expecting a victory parade.

Now it’s hard for him to change course. The economy is on a war footing. If that engine stops, serious problems could hit.

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