Ex-CIA officer, West: There is no chance of a coup against Putin. Russia is a security state built over 26 years with one purpose, keeping him and his strongmen in power.

300,000 Rosgvardia troops loyal to him. 30,000 elite protective service. All beholden to Putin. 1/ West: Prigozhin was never close. Had he reached Moscow, he'd have hit crack Rosgvardia units whose entire existence — pay, palaces, benefits — depends on Putin.

People say 2023 showed Putin was vulnerable. No, he wasn't. Prigozhin knew he had no chance of overturning him. 2/

Former NATO Military Committee Chair Bauer: I tried four times to reach out to Gerasimov [Russia’s top general] through letters. He said he was busy with the “special military operation.”

Later he said: you are part of NATO, NATO is part of the problem, I can’t talk to you.

1/ Bauer: We saw the Russian buildup for invasion of Ukraine start in spring 2021. They left vehicles and ammunition behind. In the end, 195,000 troops were around Ukraine.

We saw vehicles, hospitals, ammunition — then came the blood. I knew within 3 hours when the invasion would start.

2/

Browder: I know Putin pretty well. He's not a guy who comes with his tail between his legs. He's ready to commit the most horrific crimes to show he is a brutal, terrible adversary.

Just because he's getting hammered doesn't mean he's going to give up. Not him. 1/ Browder: My prediction — there will never be a peace treaty. Never any negotiation. It will wind down slowly, the way the Korean War wound down.

The Korean War is still technically going on right now. Nobody's firing, they have a demilitarized zone. It's an ongoing war. 2/

Browder: Trump has proven himself on Putin side at every step since returning to power. Cut all military aid. Voted with Russia at the UN against Ukrainian resolutions

His Oval Office outburst against Zelenskyy. His demand that Ukraine surrender territory Russia couldn't win 1/ Browder: He mutters ambiguous things, but he hasn't changed his position. Putin hasn't changed. Nothing has changed.

Except Ukraine's position on the battlefield. Ukraine's drones destroying Russian economic capability. Ukraine causing absolute havoc in Crimea. 2/

Polish FM Sikorski: Our response to Ukraine naming a unit after UPA heroes was disproportionate.

It personally humiliated Ukraine's president. If President Nawrocki had asked me, I'd have advised differently, Tvn24. 1/ Sikorski: Nawrocki essentially deprived himself of the ability to talk with the president of a country at war.

When Zelenskyy got the soldiers' request, the response should've been: fine, UPA fought the Soviets, but it also killed Poles — pick a better name. TVN24.

2/

Ukraine fields Europe's only million-strong, combat-tested army and its fastest-moving drone industry.

The question is whether Europe can credibly defend itself without Ukraine. It cannot, writes Aliona Hlivco in Kyiv Independent. 1/ Ukraine has developed Europe’s most combat-experienced military, one of the world’s most innovative defense-tech sectors, and a new doctrine of warfare.

From battlefield drones to AI targeting, Ukraine is pioneering capabilities NATO and EU states are only starting to grasp. 2/

Russia may be preparing a provocation in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO, The Guardian.

Putin wants to see whether the US would defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ukraine's strikes reach Moscow and St Petersburg, and Russia wants to hit back somewhere it can. 1/ Latvian intelligence: We see indications that Russia prepares military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.

Russia cannot open a second front. It may use hybrid actions — missiles, drones — to signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or face your own problems. 2/

Germany’s army chief Freuding: We used to lack information. Now sensors are everywhere — air, ground, space — and the problem is handling the data mass.

That's no longer a human task, too slow. We need a digital backbone to assemble that data and exploit it with AI.

1/ Freuding: Five priorities for the German army: deep strike up to 1,000 km, counter-UAS air defense, electromagnetic warfare, unmanned systems integration, and AI-enabled command and control.

2/

Switzerland ordered U.S. Patriots. Then Washington pushed Swiss deliveries back to prioritize Ukraine.

Bern is looking at France, Israel and South Korea for a second long-range air defense system — Bloomberg. 1/ The new system should complement 5 U.S.-made Patriot units already ordered.

Bern is not cancelling Patriot. It wants a second supplier so Swiss air defense does not depend on one U.S. delivery queue. 2/

Howard Buffett: I've never had friends like the ones I've found in Ukraine. Part of that comes from the danger people live with here every day.

When I say goodbye and say, "See you on my next trip" — the answer is often: "I hope we're still here." –– UkrPravda.

1/ Buffett: The invasion threatened not just Ukraine's food security, but the world's — we saw that within the first year or two.

This is our fight too. You're fighting for freedom, sovereignty, independence — the same values we live by in the United States.

2/

Germany no longer trusts that the US will share intelligence. So Berlin is unshackling its spy agency to stand on its own, after Trump briefly cut Ukraine off.

A new law hands the BND its broadest powers in 70 years, putting the service on a war footing against Russia — FT. 1/ Merz raised the BND budget 25 percent to €1.51 billion and will send parliament a law granting powers it has never held.

Signals intelligence, AI, the right to hack back, and lighter oversight. Chief Martin Jäger calls the BND Germany's first line of defence. 2/

Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg pushed top US officials to turn pro-Ukraine after a sour 2025.

The US has not announced new Patriots or sanctions, and past reversals show it still needs convincing to act — Sam Skove, Foreign Policy. 1/ Trump spent 2025 sour on Ukraine. He told Zelenskyy he did not have the cards, then briefly cut off US aid after their tense February meeting.

US negotiators pushed to strip the word aggressor from a draft G-7 statement marking the third anniversary of Russia's invasion. 2/

Kasparov: Ukraine's drone revolution is the equivalent of gunpowder ending feudalism.

A townsman trained with an arquebus could take down a knight from 50 meters — and the entire medieval vassal system collapsed. What we're witnessing now is a shift of the same magnitude. 1/ Kasparov: The head of Rheinmetall mockingly said a Ukrainian housewife on a 3D printer can make a drone. He didn't realize he was signing the death warrant for the entire military procurement system

A drone for $1,000 that destroys a $10 million tank, that changes everything. 2/

Snyder: Trump thinks everybody is going to roll over when he says stuff. That's true of a lot of people in his party. It's not true of people in the rest of the world.

Nobody in the world thinks Trump is strong. Nobody. I leave the US— nobody thinks he's strong. 1/ Snyder: They think he has power within a set of institutions that can do things. But they don't think he personally is strong or threatening. He's seen as an incredibly weak leader by everyone.

They're polite to him — you have to be. But everybody sees him as colossally weak. 2/

Snyder: We've lost this war. I'll make that very clear. We lost it a long time ago.

Americans are very slow to realize we've lost wars, but that doesn't mean we're slow to lose them. We lost this one very quickly. The terms of this peace are basically capitulation. 1/ Snyder: This goes to two issues of American power. First — how incompetent leadership can be. Second — how you get to a situation where radically incompetent leadership is possible.

That second point worries me. We're in a cycle now. And these are wars of whimsy. 2/

Bolton: Trump doesn't understand the concept of alliances. He thinks we defend Europe, they don't pay, we get nothing. In fact the US gets a lot out of NATO.

It's been a mistake of American politicians treating NATO membership as an act of charity by the United States. 1/ Bolton: If Trump had a strategic vision, if he knew what he was after — there was a lot at stake. The allies can justifiably say: Trump never briefed us on his plans.

He might have had a lot more political support if he had. Instead he played it entirely by ear. 2/

Bolton: IAEA inspectors returning to Iran changes nothing. They've been in and out for decades without penetrating military bases where weaponization work happens. New undisclosed sites keep appearing.

An easy concession that signifies no real shift in behavior. 1/ Bolton: The US blockade of Iranian oil has ended. A 60-day sanctions waiver lets Iran sell to whoever will buy. Iranian tankers flow freely while Gulf Arab ships sit idle waiting for clarity on Hormuz.

Only one side benefits from this — and it is not the United States. 2/

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: Trump's G7 softening on Ukraine is not a real shift. Right words at the right table, nothing more. Before the summit he spoke to Putin and called him wonderful.

Every change in tone is situational. This is performance for the camera. 1/ Kuleba: Trump desperately needs a big foreign policy victory. There are only two places left on Earth where he can get one, Cuba and Ukraine.

That is why American efforts on Ukraine will intensify. Not from conviction — from necessity. Trump needs a win he can sell. 2/

800,000 — that is how many verified Russian military targets Ukrainian drones hit in the first half of 2026, with an estimated 167,000 Russian casualties.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's defense minister: Today, drones account for more than 90% of enemy targets hit — United24. 1/ The verified hits since January span Russian personnel, air defense, artillery, rocket systems, command posts, ammunition depots, and electronic warfare units.
Ukraine's Defense Forces aim the strikes at logistics routes and key assets behind the front lines. 2/

Ukrainian drones struck both sides of the Kerch Strait.

They hit logistics, fuel infrastructure, and air defenses in occupied Crimea and Russia's Port Kavkaz — about 300 km from the front, United24.

1/ Zelenskyy: Ukraine hit military logistics, oil industry facilities, four radar stations linked to S-400 systems, and two Pantsir air defense complexes.

It is a fair response to Russia's brutal strikes against our people.

2/

Putin crosses red lines with his own society one after another. Drone strikes hit Moscow.

Draft officers now grab men in Penza — with population of 500,000 people, 560 km from Moscow. The only prior mobilization, in 2022, drove 700,000 out of Russia, — The Times. 1/ Weeping women grabbed the hood of a draft van trying to stop it. "We know you are hitting them!

Why won't you give us five minutes to say goodbye?" one screamed. Officers slammed the door shut. 2/