Ukraine killed Putin’s plan to make billions from the Iran war.

After the Iran war lifted prices, Moscow was earning $760M/day from energy. So, Ukraine hit Russia's largest Baltic oil port — Ust-Luga, cutting into that cash flow by targeting export infrastructure, Telegraph. 1/ Drones flew 620 miles through multiple air defense layers before hitting storage tanks and loading systems — visible from Finland. 2/

For 471 days, Ukrainian sergeant Serhiy Tyshchenko, 46, lived in a mud bunker dug under an asphalt road near Bakhmut.

Russian dead bodies piled up near the entrance. “We climbed over them and threw soil on them to kill the stink” he says. “But it never goes”, The Independent. 1/ Tyshchenko says he arrived at the position when Biden was US president.

By the time he left, a new US leader was in charge and was “trying to persuade Ukraine to give up the land” he had defended for 471 days. 2/

A Russian extremist groomed a British teenager to bomb a synagogue in Newcastle.

A 16-year-old searched the site on Google Maps, bought chemicals for explosives, watched bomb-making videos and planned to film the attack.

Police arrested him before he acted, The Telegraph. 1/ A Russian-speaking user on Telegram, claiming to lead a banned group, urged him to act.

He offered guidance on planning, scouting targets and methods, framing the attack as something that would “benefit” his community. 2/

German Defence Chief, Breuer: In 2029, Russia could wage a major war against a NATO country.

It is building up its military to a strength nearly doubling from before the war against Ukraine.

I've never experienced a situation that dangerous like it is today. 1/ Breuer: Capabilities Europe needs to acquire in the next 3 to 4 years: drones, precision strike, and space capabilities. These are the most urgent needs.

We put them on a prioritized list, and we are working it. We are good on our way to do so. 2/

Rubio and Kallas clashed at the G7 over Russia.

Kallas confronted Rubio, asking when the U.S. would get tougher on Moscow.

Rubio snapped back, saying the U.S. is already doing everything it can and telling her to “go ahead” if Europe thinks it can do better - Axios. 1/ Kallas reminded Rubio he had said a year earlier the U.S. would ramp up pressure if Russia blocked peace efforts.

“A year has passed and Russia hasn’t moved. When will your patience run out?” 2/

Ukraine is close to a cash crunch for the war. Funding to cover spending only until June — 2 months runway.

If money doesn’t arrive, Kyiv may face a choice it tried to avoid: the central bank financing the budget, Bloomberg. 1/ In practice, a “cash crunch” means salaries for troops and public workers, basic state services and the war’s essentials, like air defense and drones, start getting underfunded.

Zelenskyy’s warning is no money — the army feels it. 2/

Russia is trying to reduce contact with the outside world. It’s starting to look like a war-time Iran model: closed, controllable, security-first.

In early March, mobile internet in Moscow and St. Petersburg was blocked on FSB orders — almost 3 weeks, Economist. 1/ In Moscow, the social contract is: no civic freedom, but daily life works via apps.

Then suddenly parents can’t message kids, parking can’t be paid, couriers can’t deliver, taxis revert to phone calls. 2/

Cheap tech changed war. Weaker countries can now stop stronger ones. Ukraine proved it — drones slowed a much larger Russian army.

Michael Kimmage for NYT: Neither side won. Ukraine held on, but Russia’s economy endured — turning the war into a long, costly stalemate. 1/ Ukraine held off a bigger force. Russia’s economy didn’t collapse. The result is a long, costly war with no clear winner.

This is a new model of war. High intensity. Long duration. No decisive outcome. The West gave Ukraine enough to survive — not enough to win. 2/

This is a Ukrainian veteran, Serhii Pomahaibo (46).

In August 2022, a gunshot shrapnel wound to the head near Kherson. Open brain trauma. Coma.

His wife was told he was dead. She didn't believe it. She searched hospitals until she found him in intensive care in Odesa. 1/ When doctors let her in for one minute, she touched his hand and spoke to him. He opened his eyes. Tears rolled down his face.

A monitor showed brain activity that wasn't there before.

Serhii recognized her. That was the moment his fight for recovery began. 2/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine has a system everyone now recognizes, and nothing like it exists in the world today.

It combines everything: electronic warfare, small air defense, mid-range. A systemic approach to countering Shaheds has become the key global challenge. 1/ Zelenskyy: Russia definitely helps Iran.

Ukraine, in turn, provides precise expertise to other countries, especially on protecting civilian infrastructure and people from attacks. 2X

Keane on Iran: We're [US] in the red zone. We're on the 20-yard line. This is conditions-based — the enemy has a vote. About three more weeks to finish the operation.

We will accomplish all of the objectives Trump has given CENTCOM. 1/ Keane: Iran's leadership is in chaos. The paranoia is real, the chaotic decision-making is real.

We are fragmenting that leadership and we have weeks to do more of that. They are trying to survive personally and keep the regime intact. That is an enormous problem for them. 2/

About 250 destroyed targets. I don’t personally keep count. –– Yeva Yunga, FPV drone operator, joined the army at 18.

These include enemy infantry and various equipment, especially artillery. Hitting those makes life much easier for our infantry and for us.

1/ Yunga: As a woman, the hardest part was signing the contract — I had 8–9 interviews while men had one.

No one wanted responsibility for a “kid” in a combat unit. They needed to be sure I understood — many join for ideas, but don’t realize how quickly reality hits.

2/

Russia poured $11.8B into occupied Ukrainian territories in 2024–2026 — 3x more than the combined development funds for 20 other Russian regions — Reuters.

The money is permanently building occupied Ukraine into Russia — ahead of any peace deal. 1/ Reuters analyzed thousands of satellite images using a machine-learning model.

Result: 2,500+ km of railroads, highways and roads newly built or upgraded across occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson since 2022. 2/

Xi Jinping is betting Trump is ready to tear up American playbook on Taiwan.

He sees opening as Trump views island transactionally, accuses it of stealing chip industry, refuses to say if US would defend it. War in Iran is distracting Washington — WSJ. 1/ In 2017 during first state visit to China, Trump offered to help Xi negotiate Taiwan's status with President Tsai Ing-wen. Trump:"I know her, you know. I can help with this woman."

Chinese were shocked. Beijing chose to ignore offer and retreat into diplomatic scripts. 2/

John Foreman: The factors that drove Putin to war have not been settled. Russia is not a great power.

Putin’s legacy is not secure. NATO expanded. Americans are still in Europe. Europe and NATO need to provide security guarantees to Ukraine to prevent Russia from reattacking. 1/ Foreman: American sanctions and pressure were having a serious effect on the Russian economy in December, January, February.

Then the Iran war happens, the pressure’s off, and there’s war fatigue in the West — Ukraine becomes “yesterday’s news,” mentioned mainly after missile attacks. 2/

Zelenskyy: I signed a defense deal with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

We reached an important agreement between the defense ministries of Ukraine and Saudi Arabia on defense cooperation.

We are ready to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to better protect lives. 1/ Zelenskyy: The agreement lays the foundation for future contracts, technological cooperation, investment, and strengthens Ukraine’s international role as a security provider.

We are ready to share our expertise and systems with Saudi Arabia. 2/

US senators move to sanction Hungary over blocking Ukraine aid.

A bipartisan bill from Shaheen and Tillis would target Hungarian officials with asset freezes and visa bans for obstructing support to Kyiv and buying Russian energy — as Orbán holds up a €90B EU loan, FT. 1/
The “Block Putin Act” is led by Dem. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Rep. Sen. Thom Tillis.

It would force Trump to sanction officials tied to Russian oil and gas deals and efforts to block Ukraine support. 2/

Iran may be winning the war despite losing battles.

Tehran's goal is to show US and Israel cost of confronting Iran is militarily, economically and politically unsustainable. Strategy is survive and exhaust — Foreign Affairs. 1/ Iran has been preparing for this war for nearly 40 years.

Tehran decentralized command, distributed political authority across regional nodes and cultivated multiple successors at every IRGC level. This enabled regime to withstand assassination of many high-ranking leaders. 2/

Putin is making $760M a day from oil as the Iran war drives prices higher.

Russia’s oil and gas revenues are set to double this month — from $12B to nearly $24B — boosted by price spikes and US sanctions waivers, Telegraph and KSE Institute. 1/ Even if the war ends soon, Russia’s energy revenues are projected at $218.5B this year. That’s +63% vs pre-war expectations — an $84B windfall under an optimistic scenario. 2/

The Pentagon prepares “final blow” options for Iran.

Plans include ground invasions, seizure of key islands, and a massive bombing campaign if talks fail and Hormuz remains blocked, Axios. 1/ US officials outlined 4 main scenarios.

Seizing Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil hub), Larak (controls Hormuz), Abu Musa and nearby islands, or intercepting Iranian oil shipments in the strait. 2/

Shapiro: The only thing Iran can do at this point is harass people.

They can harass their neighbors with occasional missile and drone strikes.

They can bother some shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 1/ Shapiro: There are two types of victory, political victory and actual victory.

We may already have an actual victory. If Iran ends up falling, that victory will belong to President Trump because we will have weakened the foundations of the Iranian regime. 2/