Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
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Feb 8 10 tweets 3 min read
Russia abducted Ukrainian journalist Yana Suvorova in occupied Melitopol when she was 18.

After a closed, staged trial, she was sentenced to 14 years for “terrorism” and “treason.” Her case is classified. She vanished from exchange lists, United24. 1/ Image
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Yana: “The cell is cold. Rats run around. The light is on constantly.”

Her boyfriend says her condition collapsed after transfer to Donetsk — held with girls who had attempted suicide. Psychological pressure was constant. 2/
Feb 8 4 tweets 1 min read
Germany broke up a network supplying Russia’s defense industry.

Police arrested 5 suspects accused of exporting sanctioned goods to Russian military firms. The network shipped €30M worth of goods since 2022 — Reuters. 1/ Image German prosecutors say the group used shell companies and fake end-users inside and outside the EU to hide shipments to 24 Russian defense firms.

Raids took place in multiple cities, assets were frozen, and 5 more suspects remain at large. 2/
Feb 8 6 tweets 2 min read
Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the 3rd Army Corps: As Trump said, to talk about peace you need to have cards.

For Russia, peace starts only when advancing becomes impossible or too costly.

They hope spring and “infiltration tactics” will save them. I don’t think it will.

1/ Biletskyi: For most fighters who’ve been at war for years, it stops being pure emotion.

At first it’s rage, shock, survival. Over time, it becomes work.

War turns into a system, a profession — otherwise neither soldiers nor officers last.

2/
Feb 8 12 tweets 2 min read
What if Russia loses in Ukraine?

By Clausewitz’s definition, Russia has already failed on all three pillars of war: political goals (what the Kremlin sought to achieve), military (how its army actually performed), and public support — United24. 1/ Image Russia set maximalist political goals in 2022: subjugate Ukraine, replace its government, and force Kyiv back into Moscow’s sphere of control.

After full-scale war, none of these goals have been achieved. Ukraine remains sovereign, mobilized, and politically unified. 2/
Feb 8 11 tweets 2 min read
They beat him with batons and fists, striking pain points before and after every meal. The guards called it a “red corridor.”

This is how Russian jailers tortured Serhii Hryhoriev, a Ukrainian soldier held in Russian captivity, Slidstvo Info reports. 1/ Image He was 59 years old. Hryhoriev joined the war in 2019.

He was captured by Russian forces in Mariupol at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. 2/
Feb 7 8 tweets 2 min read
UK may move from sanctions to seizures — targeting Russia’s shadow fleet.

The Guardian: London is weighing the capture of a Russia-linked tanker, an escalatory step that could open a new front against Moscow as oil revenues fall. 1/ Image KSE Institute: Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 24% in 2025, down to 22% of state income from 41% in 2022.

A maritime services ban plus tanker seizures would be very painful for the Kremlin. 2/ Image
Feb 7 9 tweets 2 min read
Jeffrey Epstein spent years trying to meet Putin, cultivated ties with Russian officials including an FSB academy grad.

Epstein once asked a Kremlin contact for help after claiming a Russian woman was blackmailing "powerful businessmen" in NYC — The WP. 1/ Image Putin’s name appears 1,000+ times in newly released DOJ files. He made repeated attempts from 2013-2018 to arrange a Putin meeting, often through former Norwegian PM Thorbjørn Jagland. No evidence shows it ever happened. 2/
Feb 7 7 tweets 2 min read
Russia refused to hand over control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the US, offering cheap energy for sale to Ukraine.

The US wants peace signed by the end of March, but there’s no agreement on territories or security guarantees. Reuters on talks in Abu Dhabi. 1/ Image Under the framework, any deal would go to a referendum alongside national elections. Ukrainian officials discussed a possible May vote.

Talks led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner urged a quick vote as Trump shifts focus to domestic politics ahead of November midterms. 2/
Feb 7 7 tweets 3 min read
Brittney Shki-Giiziz, Canadian volunteer in Ukraine: My first day fighting was absolutely excellent. I destroyed a train station with a tank. Being at war was physically easier than the training the Canadian Army puts us through. It prepared me very well for war. 1/ Shki-Giiziz: The truth is that Russia is pushing. We are holding, but we are being pushed back constantly.

Our safe houses are pushed further back. We had positions in Myrnograd and Pokrovsk not so long ago. 2/
Feb 7 8 tweets 2 min read
A German wargame claims Russia could break NATO with just 15,000 troops — by exploiting hesitation.

Ben Hodges for Telegraph: A small Russian force could break NATO due to Western paralysis. The core fix is Ukraine. 1/ Image The scenario: Oct 2026. Russia stages a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad, moves into the Suwałki Corridor, seizes Marijampolė.

US stays out. Poland mobilises but hesitates. Germany dithers. Baltics get cut off. NATO credibility collapses — on paper. 2/
Feb 7 14 tweets 2 min read
Bloomberg: Russia is short nearly 10-11 mln workers and is now recruiting labor from India and Sri Lanka to keep its economy running as war and demographics drain the workforce. 1/ Image For decades, Russia relied on migrants from Central Asia. That model is breaking down as the Ukraine war, emigration, and aging push the country into its deepest labor crisis in years. 2/
Feb 7 5 tweets 2 min read
When their father was taken POW, the children were 1 meter tall. Today, the son is 1.70 meters.

Eskender broke through 2 encirclements from Mariupol, was captured, and sentenced to 30 years in Russia. Haven’t seen family since 2022.

Hromadske about returned Ukrainian POWs. 1/ Ivan traveled to every exchange for 3 years. Today he found out that his son had finally been released. For 3 years, his father was called the chief optimist.

Galina, mother: “His blood pressure is 160 over 90. They already gave me something at the hospital...” 2/
Feb 7 10 tweets 3 min read
Putin isn’t really winning. Europe needs to realize that and hit at Russia's weaknesses.

FT: Putin’s victory narrative is loud but brittle. Behind claims of momentum in Ukraine is Russian system under strain. Europe needs to expose the gaps — and project their own power. 1/ Image Putin claims Russia has the “strategic initiative,” sanctions-proof stability, and inevitable control of Donbas.

US voices echo it: JD Vance predicts a Russian win, Trump called Putin’s army “invincible”. 2/
Feb 7 10 tweets 2 min read
“I saw kids being shot, women, old people. I saw many of them shot in the head, blood pouring onto the streets,” says Ali.

He was a witness to how Iranian authorities burned Rasht’s grand bazaar and opened fire on civilians — The Guardian. 1/ Image On Thursday, 8 January, Iran went dark. The government cut the internet, phone calls, and external communications nationwide as protests erupted in over 200 cities. That night, the crackdown began. 2/
Feb 7 9 tweets 2 min read
The Times: “Kill chains” are becoming the future of war, and humans are turning into the slowest part of the system.

AI is now compressing detection, decision, and strike into seconds, reshaping how wars are fought. 1/ Image The war in Ukraine turned AI-assisted warfare into practice. Tens of thousands of sensors now flood headquarters with data that no human staff can process fast enough.

Speed has become decisive. 2/
Feb 7 4 tweets 1 min read
We don’t know if NATO will exist in the future — Bert Koenders, former Dutch Foreign Minister for EP.

Ukraine's accession to the EU has become incredibly important. This is a matter of security for the whole of Europe.

We must learn to act without the US. 1/ Image Koenders: Europe should no longer think of Ukraine as a buffer state.

We are no longer living in a state of peace. Russia is waging a hybrid war against Europe. 2/
Feb 7 5 tweets 2 min read
Russia’s war economy has stalled.

In 2026, GDP growth fell below 1% after oil revenues dropped, taxes rose, and labor shortages intensified. Russia can finance the war in 2026-27 through higher taxes, money printing, asset sales, and nationalization — The Guardian. 1/ Image Oil revenues fell. Fossil fuels funded 40% of Russia’s federal budget in 2022.

By 2025, the share dropped to 25%. Ural oil prices fell from $90 per barrel in early 2022 to $50 by late 2025. 2/ Image
Feb 7 8 tweets 2 min read
Kyiv is counting down days to spring.

In a bar without electricity, a chalkboard reads: “Days until spring: 24.” Candles replace lights as Russian strikes leave neighborhoods without heat and power, FT. 1/ Image PM Yulia Svyrydenko: This is Ukraine’s hardest winter of the war.

Nightly missile and drone attacks have left millions without heat or electricity for days or weeks. Since Jan 1, Russia has hit Ukraine’s energy sector 217 times. 2/
Feb 7 5 tweets 2 min read
Zelenskyy: The US gave Ukraine and Russia a deadline to reach a ceasfire by June.

The US has proposed that Ukraine and Russia meet in Miami in a week. Ukraine has agreed.

Ukraine will not leave Donbas.

1/ Image Zelenskyy: The US has proposed to create of a free economic zone in Donetsk Oblast. But we will need fair and reliable rules.

The most reliable position is still “stay where we are.”

2/
Feb 7 5 tweets 1 min read
Ukraine forced Starlink to cut off Russian troops.

After Kyiv’s request, SpaceX blocked unregistered terminals, disrupting Russian frontline communications and drone control. Russian military bloggers report widespread outages — NYT 1/ Image Russia had used smuggled Starlink terminals for years.

Recently, Russian forces began mounting Starlink on drones, improving targeting and reducing vulnerability to jamming. 2/
Feb 7 10 tweets 2 min read
He was beaten with batons, his legs were broken, he was assaulted during so-called “medical treatment,” abused for speaking Polish, denied care, and held until he lost consciousness and died.

Russian guards laughed that they had caught a Pole, reports Slidstvo Info 1/ Image His name was Krzysztof Galos, a 55-year-old Polish citizen. He was a civilian. He had no ties to the military. Poland is not at war with Russia. He was tortured to death in Russia’s SIZO-2 detention center in Taganrog. 2/