Did Ukraine shoot down a Russian Tu-22М3 "Backfire" Strategic Bomber?

Ukraine says yes, Russia says no.

If Ukraine is right, it is a big deal and could have strategic implications for the war.

Details: 1/

There is skepticism about Ukraine’s claim.

“The Russian Strategic Bomber crashed over the Stavropol Krai Region of Southwestern Russia, which is roughly 400 Miles from the Ukrainian Frontline, making this claim Incredibly Unlikely.” 2/

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1781206278418649457?s=46&t=NCxYGexKdeAF9fogpzZAOg

Russia has resolved to make Kharkiv, a Ukrainian city of one million, uninhabitable, but the mayor disagrees and vows not to give up!

This week I visited Kharkiv to see for myself how the city lives 1/ Where is it? It is 6 hours drive from Kyiv to the south east. The Russian border is 40 km away and so missiles and drone attacks come without warning.

Recently, the attacks have picked up. For example, a week ago for the first time Russia used a 250kg glided bomb 2/

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/ Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

This is stupid, but not. The US Secretary of State, the Ambassador to NATO:

While we support Ukraine right to defend itself, we are against Ukraine striking Russian territory

This view reflects the U.S. doctrine: slow Ukraine down to exhaust Russia 1/
Let’s agree that this approach has been in place from the very beginning of the Russian invasion.

Every weapon, every capability has been delayed and argued against:heavy artillery, HIMARS, Abrahams, ATACAMS, F16s 2/

Ukraine(?) strikes a critical defense plant 2000 km deep from the front line. Whatever the cause:

A massive fire at the Uralmashzavod in Yekaterinburg, Russia. It is a leading producer of equipment for metallurgy, mining, and energy, and the country's largest defense plant. 1/

The fire broke out in a shop of EnergoTransBud, a manufacturer of electric motors and transformers. It rapidly spread across 4,500 square meters. The roof and ceiling collapsed 2/

Zelenskyy: for Putin everyone is a terrorist except himself

NEXTA: FSB officers could have been in the concert hall during the terrorist attack in Moscow [closing the doors to prevent people from escaping] 1/

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1772292883560694064

Zelensky has strongly rejected Russian Putin's accusations that Ukraine was involved in the terrorist attack in the Moscow region.

"Today, Putin was talking to himself again, and it was broadcast on television again. Again, he blames Ukraine. 2/

Multiple explosions in Kyiv. No air warning before explosions. Traces of air defense missiles in the sky. Telegram channels say Russia launched ballistic missiles.

This is unusual as ballistic missile attacks happen at night or early morning. Ukrainian media say these were supersonic ballistic missiles launched in Crimea

Four suspects in Moscow terror attack are all citizens of Tajikistan: Mirzoyev, 32, Rachabalizoda, 30, Faizov, 19, and Fariduni, 25. There is no evidence connecting them to Ukraine.

They appeared in court visibly tortured. 1/

Faizov was non-responsive in a wheelchair

Mirzoyev had a plastic bag over his neck

Rachabalizoda was without ear; there were videos of Russian Secuirty forces cutting off his ear and forcing him to eat it to him during the arrest 2/

Many argue that Russian FSB organized the terror attack in Moscow

I think they are wrong and this is why: the U.S. “duty to warn” policy

The U.S. indeed warned Russia about the attack. It can embarrass Russia by releasing the details of its warning. 1/ This threat serves as a constraint on how much Russia can spin the situation.

If Russia pushes Ukraine story too far, the U.S. can release specific facts it gave to Russia. If these facts could have helped avoid the massacre, Russian people can turn against Putin and FSB 2/

Ukraine and Russia trade massive missile attacks. This might appear related to Moscow attack, but it is not.

I am in Kyiv and have just woken up (5am) by two loud explosions

Earlier tonight Ukraine successfully hit Sevastopol with multiple missiles 1/

The Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol that hosts the Russian Black Sea fleet has been confirmed by Russian state media. There are dead and injured.

Ukrainian media report that UK made storm shadows hit a communication center of the Russia fleet 2/

Russia blames Ukraine for the attack in Moscow.

Margarita Simonyan: “it is no ISIS, they are all Ukrainians”.

What doesn’t it mean for Russia, Ukraine and the region? 1/ As I said earlier, Putin has no choice but to blame Ukraine. Otherwise he admits his incompetence to prevent the attack, weakness to be unable to respond, and a strategic failure of invading Ukraine instead of focusing on other, real issues for Russia. He will loose power. 2/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1771492547606577262

Putin might not have a choice but to blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack in Moscow. He might not be successful, though, because the facts point to Islamic radicals.

This is why:

1. The Russian law enforcement’ve shown suspects 1/

They claim one of them is from Tajikistan. None of them are Ukrainians or have lived in Ukraine

Ukraine has explicitly denied involvement in the attack and ISIS has claimed responsibility. 2/

Russia “strikes back” today. This might be a response to successful attacks on Russian oil infrastructure

Zelensky: over 60 "shaheds" and nearly 90 different missiles targeted at power plants, power lines, a hydroelectric dam, residential buildings 1/ This is the largest combined attack on the Ukrainian power system since the beginning of the full-scale invasion: Ukrenergo

100s of thousands of homes are in blackout 2/

Recently at the US Embassy in Geneva, Tetiana Pechonchyk from ZMINA spoke about the mistreatment of Ukrainian civilians by Russians in occupied territories. Her story is the grim reality of Russian "peace" in Ukraine. 1/



Human Rights Center ZMINA documents human rights abuses during the last 10 years, starting from Crimea in 2014

Now they concentrate on conducting field missions to the liberated areas to document enforced disappearances, torture and deportation 2/

A new Ukraine drone ops showcases stark capabilities: incredible precision and resilience to jamming and air defense.

The drone launched hundreds of miles away hits an oil refinery spot on 1/ Details: SBU drones strike three oil refineries in Russia on March 13th: Ryazan, Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod oblast, and Kirishi in the Leningrad oblast.2/

Pope says Ukraine should find courage to raise a white flag and negotiate with Russia. But negotiation requires leverage, otherwise it is a surrender

This leverage is Crimea. By annexing it, Putin has crowned himself a prince of Tavria. If Crimea is lost, Putin is dead 1/ Yet, attacking Crimea requires longer range missiles. Ukraine's been asking the West for weapons that can strike Kerch bridge and meaningfully threaten the land connection Russia grabbed when it invaded in 2022. These requests've hit a brick wall of "deescalation" 2/

A successful Ukrainian drone strike from 800 kilometers hit one of the largest Russian oil refineries and forced it to stop operating

The refinery processes 15 million tons of oil each year or 5% Russia's total capacity. This attack is likely to impact the entire industry 1/ Details and other attacks: This is Lukoil's Norsi refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod. The Norsi refinery supplies both domestic and overseas markets 2/

Poland's been importing increasing amount of Russian farm goods through Belarus. Oddly, Polish farmers continue to protest by blocking the Ukrainian border, planning to also block Lithuania's border next. No plans for protests at the border with Belarus

Facts: 1/ 1. Lithuanian border

Polish farmers protested on the border with Lithuania on Friday against what they say are imports of Ukrainian grain through the Baltic country, something Vilnius denies, writes Reuters 2/

Macron hints that the West might consider deploying troops to Ukraine and stressed the need for delivering deep-strike capabilities and increasing the pace and volume of weapons support for Ukraine, procuring weapons within Europe and globally

Quotes and commentary: 1/ Macron: "We discussed this. Currently, there's no consensus on sending troops. However, we shouldn't rule anything out for the future. We'll do everything possible to prevent Russia from winning this war." 2/

NYTimes writes about a tight relationship between the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence

It is no surprise there is a relationship, but its structure and value for the US is indeed a revelation

Here are hey points in the article and Ukrainian reaction to it 1/ I'll start with the Ukrainian reaction. There is no official position, but there is a commentary of the former head of the Ukrainian intelligence Kondratyuk during which tenure the relationship started 2/

Zelensky reveals Ukrainian casualty numbers: 31K Ukrainian soldiers have died in this war, and 180K Russians

He also addresses the lack of military aid, Polish blockade, reasons for a failed offensive, and end game scenarios for the war 1/

On Russia offensive: The coming months will be tough. Russia is planning another offensive for the end of May-summer. But the US presidential election will be the critical point 2/