Pomerantsev: Ukraine has all of society approaches to cognitive defense. It is way ahead.

When talking with partners, you have to be careful not to give anyone a sense that you're intervening in domestic politics. If you're dealing in truth, you have a duty to release it. 1/ Pomerantsev: Russia is aggressive inside Europe with assassinations, sabotage and cyber attacks. Some countries get intimidated, while others feel emboldened to act. The more aggressive Russia becomes, the more people see it as fair game to strike back. 2/

One US sanction was enough to break normal life for a ICC judge in Europe.

Nicolas Guillou lost access to credit cards, bank transfers, hotel bookings, UPS deliveries, Paris bike rentals and parts of his health insurance because they all depended on American companies, FT. 1/ The US sanctioned Guillou in August 2025 after the ICC issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza. 2/

Netanyahu: There was a lot of cooperation between Russia and Iran in the beginning of the Ukraine war because Iran was supplying drones. There's not been much now.

Sometimes they support each other on some things and don’t support each other on other things. 1/ Netanyahu: Democracies have the staying power. Do they have the resolve to stop these fanatics? Iran developed a missile to reach Diego Garcia, 2,400 miles. To reach the U.S., a little over 6,000 miles. If we don’t continue the pressure, one day you’ll face such a regime with nuclear weapons. 2/

Ukraine is the biggest winner of the Iran war.

Ukraine struck 40% of Russian oil exports while Gulf states — burned by China and Russia backing Iran — are now signing defense deals with Kyiv instead, writes Con Coughlin in The Telegraph. 1/ Zelenskyy estimates total gains at 117.6 square miles — about 10% of the territory Kyiv lost to Moscow in 2025. Russia recorded almost no territorial gains for the first time in two and a half years. 2/

“The only thing worse than no tanks in Red Square are burning tanks in Red Square.”

A European diplomat in Moscow captures how fast Putin’s authority is collapsing inside Russia, writes Mark Galeotti in The Times. 1/ For the first time in decades Putin cancelled armored vehicles from Saturday’s Victory Day parade. Moscow is ringed with Pantsir-S missile launchers on rooftops, electronic warfare stations and drone jammers. 2/

A demilitarized zone in Donbas remains an unrealistic option — Le Monde.

Zelenskyy: “The Russians want us to leave Donetsk Oblast. The Americans are looking for a solution that is not a real withdrawal — they want to create a demilitarized zone or a special economic zone. 1/ Russia claims full annexation of both Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts — including territory its army does not fully control. It occupies nearly all of Luhansk and 80% of Donetsk. 2/

Patriot batteries guard the runway at Rzeszów airport — this small regional airfield 55 miles from Ukraine became the main hub for military aid to Kyiv.

Up to 40 cargo flights per day. Wounded soldiers treated here before flying to European hospitals — El País. 1/ On February 24, 2022 Ukraine closed its airspace. Rzeszów went from 10-12 commercial flights per day to 20-40 large cargo planes daily — Hercules, Boeing 747s, Antonov An-124s from around the world. 2/

Fiona Hill: Scrapping the long-range missile program undercuts deterrence against Russia in the short and medium term.

It also pushes more countries to develop these capabilities themselves, creating the risk of a wider arms race. 1/ Hill: Putin’s position is slipping, but we should be careful about calling it a tipping point.

He has always proven resilient in the Russian context, and his extra security precautions are not irrational given the war and attacks on leaders. 2/

Fiona Hill: We are in a realm of magical and wishful thinking.

Iran is another personalized standoff between Trump and whoever his counterparts are, with each side trying to show who has the edge. Everyone else is watching this spectacle with real alarm. 1/ Hill: It will be very hard for any other state to corral Trump into a negotiation track.

This is all about how Trump thinks he is being viewed on the world stage: whether he looks strong, in control, and able to impose his will. 2/

Kasparov: This is a global war. Russia and Iran are working together, and behind them is the Chinese dragon.

China helps Putin openly, supports him economically and technologically, and the outcome in Ukraine will be felt from Taiwan to Nicaragua, Belarus to Zimbabwe. 1/ Kasparov: Ukraine changed military strategy. The battlefield is radically different from five years ago.

A few good drone operators can decimate battalions, and Ukraine has built a wall of drones where the dead zone is not barbed wire, but 50 kilometers of drones. 2/

Kasparov: America is no longer the rock people knew. For dissidents it was a beacon; for everyone else, a force to reckon with.

Today all bets are off. The world built around US military, economic and political power is over, and America’s role will be reconsidered. 1/ Kasparov: NATO is dead. It is not just irrelevant; it refused to take part in the war it was built for.

Russia was the original threat, and when the real challenge to European security came from Russia, NATO waffled, ducked, and categorically refused to join. 2/

Keane: From Iran’s perspective, the ceasefire did what they wanted: it stopped the war.

We were supposed to get a deal in a couple of weeks. A month later, there is not much to show for it, and the prospects of a good deal are slim. 1/ Keane: Even if a deal meets all our objectives, the problem is sanctions relief. What do we have after that?

A regime that survived and has the ability to recover. That is fundamentally flawed. We wanted Iran on its heels, suffering, and vulnerable to internal pressure. 2/

Kellogg: Iran has two options. A deal written with disappearing ink, or military operations continue.

They use a mosaic defense, decentralizing command and control across 31 districts. We do not really know who is in control, so keep eliminating the Revolutionary Guards. 1/ Kellogg: I strongly advocate going after Kharg Island and putting a provisional government in charge.

There are Iranian opposition groups that could lead. Otherwise Tehran will keep doing what is in its playbook: talk, fight, talk again, and fight again. 2/

Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.

Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/ Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.

This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/

Pompeo: For 40 years, our policy was to sell more stuff into China and hope China would become more like us. That was wrong.

Of all the hostile leaders I dealt with, the Chinese Communist Party is the one that can actually change the way we live. 1/ Pompeo: We are not going to fully decouple from China.

But anything tied to technology, security, pharmaceuticals, or biotech should be made in friendly countries, so we are never again left in a crisis without the things we actually need. 2/

“If Russia tried to seize Kyiv again, it would be the biggest bloodbath in world history. Two million drones would swarm over the tanks and burn them mercilessly.”

The Guardian: Madyar is Russia’s top assassination target after Zelenskyy. 1/ Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, leads the 414th brigade — the unit that has made Putin cancel tanks at this Saturday’s Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly 20 years. 2/

Trump expected another Venezuela — days, a toppled regime, a victory lap.

Instead Iran mined Hormuz, shut 20% of global oil flows, and turned gas prices and polls into the real front.

Iran does not need to win militarily. Iran needs to make the exit humiliating — The Atlantic. 1/ Trump can sell almost any paper as a win. He cannot sell a war with no ending.

The White House is still waiting for Iran to answer a one page memorandum that extends a cease fire, not a treaty. 2/

Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.

Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/ Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.

Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/

Former Russian PM Kasyanov: There is no real threat to Putin's life from inner circle, but Putin is increasing his security because problems are growing.

Attitudes toward the war and Putin’s regime are changing. 62% of Russians want to stop the war and move to negotiations.

1/ Kasyanov: Victory Day has always been a major date for Putin, and he has used it a lot. The parade sends a strong signal to the world.

I think we may hear him speak about ending the war soon, but only on his own terms. Still, the situation is moving and changing.

2/

Putin: Russian soldiers are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, Russia’s heroes are moving forward.

The great feat of the victorious generation inspires our soldiers carrying out the special military operation today. 1/ Putin: No matter how military technology and methods of combat change, the main thing remains unchanged: people decide the fate of the country.

Russia’s success rests on moral strength, courage, valor, unity and the ability to endure any trial.

2/

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Mobilization must change because war itself changed.

Drones and robotic systems reshaped the battlefield, making old mass-army models obsolete. For the first time in history, robots entered war at scale.

1/ Zaluzhnyi: Russia tried to break the battlefield deadlock with new technology and tactics, but the result stayed the same: old-style offensives in a machine war only turn soldiers into expendable manpower that constantly needs replacement.

2/