Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Author of 'Best Things First', 'False Alarm', and 'Skeptical Environmentalist', President Copenhagen Consensus: smart solutions through economic prioritization

Jan 9, 11 tweets

Despite breathless climate reporting about ever more fire

The US burned area last year was the lowest this century

It was less than 7% of the 1930s

Climate does increase the burned area

but zoning and forest management are much more important

Thread + refs

We actually have good decadal estimates of US burned area from 1900

2023 saw less than 3% of the area that burned each year in 1900s (1900-1909)



data credibility: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
nifc.gov/fire-informati…

Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of experts said

blaming most on land management and development.

"25% ...from climate change, and 75% is the way we manage lands"

eenews.net/stories/106202…

Reduction in US burn in the middle of last century is likely due to fire suppression

Part of the uptick over the past decades likely due to climate

But we're badly informed, when e.g. Economist tell us “wildfire in America has quadrupled in 40 years”

economist.com/graphic-detail…

And no, US forest area has not decreased since 1900

actually, it has slightly increased

(p7)fs.usda.gov/sites/default/…

If the entire world keeps burning a crazy amount of fossil fuels

annual burned area in the US will stay about constant

EPA estimates for the Fourth National Climate Assessment, cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…

If the entire world reduces CO₂ emissions dramatically — about 70% from RCP8.5 — it means just slightly lower burned area in 2100

It should be obvious that zoning and forest management is much quicker, cheaper and will help many more people better, faster

More houses are being built in high-risk areas for wildfires

Maybe our first wildfire policy should focus much more on stopping people from building in vulnerable areas?

And then better fire regulation for those who stay?

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-more fires

US fires burn 5-10x less today

Even with extreme climate emissions, area burned stays about same across century

Climate does increase burned area,

but zoning and forest management much more important

Contrary to what you constantly hear in the media

Global fire in 2023 burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 than normal

Yes, Canada burned very much more (constantly reported), but surely the media should also tell you that US, Africa and Europe burned much less?

gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…

Climate alarmists scare us of ever more fire

But NASA satellites show that the world is burning 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

Why don't we hear this?


wsj.com/articles/clima…
archive.ph/WfDJh
modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/…

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