Thread by @Jack_Mrgln

In an odd twist, the Russian IL-76 RA-78830, originally reported as the one shot down over Belgorod, was in fact en route to Syria and *possibly* the aircraft carrying Russian fighters for ‘Africa Corps’ to Burkina Faso.

Caveats here:

- receiver limitations means we can’t see see an IL-76 making the trip all the way to Ouagadougou, have to make inferences
- Africa Initiative, ru propaganda outlet claims that “Africa Corps” arrived with 100 personnel, arms, and vehicles in Burkina at 2 PM.

- Africa Initiative posted early photos of the aircraft loading in Ru. These images could be Chkalovsky, but unconfirmed

- more recent photos claiming to show this airframe show a different livery, but not possible to verify this is the same aircraft (cc @vcdgf555)

@vcdgf555 Evidence for:
- this is a 223rd Flight Unit plane (and sanctioned!), which has regularly serviced Wagner/Ru forces in African
- it previously (maybe still) has a livery consistent with the Africa Initiative images. They got wise to blurring tail numbers.

@vcdgf555 - this aircraft would have landed in Syria (most likely) after 7:10 UTC
- while we can’t see it depart (sometimes but not always, Russian planes leaving Syria for Africa getting picked up in Cyprus FIR) this timing would allow it to make it to Ouagadougou on timeline reported

@vcdgf555 So to summarize - this is possibly but by no means certainly a plane that played a role in transfer of ‘Africa Corps’ (more formally MoD Wagner successor) personnel into Africa.

@vcdgf555 There are other interesting Ru govt IL76 flights in Africa today, but their timelines and livery don’t match. See for example RA-76841, an MChS (EMERCOM) plane that flew into Egypt later on, before departing for unknown location.

@vcdgf555 Spotted in sat imagery by @COUPSURE