In an odd twist, the Russian IL-76 RA-78830, originally reported as the one shot down over Belgorod, was in fact en route to Syria and *possibly* the aircraft carrying Russian fighters for ‘Africa Corps’ to Burkina Faso.





Caveats here:

- receiver limitations means we can’t see see an IL-76 making the trip all the way to Ouagadougou, have to make inferences
- Africa Initiative, ru propaganda outlet claims that “Africa Corps” arrived with 100 personnel, arms, and vehicles in Burkina at 2 PM.

This week marks a year since Wagner took Soledar in a bloody, protracted battle that has become one of the more important moments in the collective mythology of Russian PMCs. Brief thread on Soledar and some of the commanders involved.

1/ Like in Bakhmut to the south, Soledar was a grinding battle of artillery and urban combat, and a flashpoint in tensions between Wagner and the MoD, with both claiming to captured the town in January of 2023. Soledar was obliterated in the process.

2/

rferl.org/a/russian-forc…

More videos of Prigozhin’s last trip to Africa, where he travels with Utkin. They visit the CAR and meet people like Dmitri Sytiy, Zombie, travel to Mali to meet Lotus. Prigozhin personally hands out aid to locals. Here he travels through the CAR, taking with Boris “Zombie” Nizhevenok, an assault detachment command, and meets with local partners.

The plane that Prigozhin died aboard, RA-02795, has a remarkable story.

1/ Many Russia watchers know it better as M-SAAN, which carried Russian military officials including the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Osipov, to Sudan a week after the revolution that toppled Bashir



2/occrp.org/en/investigati…

I started working on Russian illicit networks in 2014, PMCs in 2016. Wagner played a central role in that work, which has meant about 5-6 years of following Prigozhin and Utkin. The world is better place without them, Wagner will change fundamentally, but PMCs aren’t going away. Wagner fought alongside other Russian “PMCs” in Ukraine and Syria. They fought alongside Sudanese, Syrian mercenaries in Libya, at the same time as an American PMC tried to close a deal with their client, Haftar. They were pushed out of Mozambique by SA PMCs.

Some considerations that I haven’t seen discussed in as much detail that are important for the “future of Wagner” conjecture, and what it means for Russian operations in Ukraine, Syria, Africa.

1/ A) do commanders of assault detachments and platoons stay, with or without Prigozhin? This is the core of the human capital of Wagner, a major pillar of competency and identity.

2/

Prigozhin was much more likely aiming for concessions and a greater role for himself and his allies, using force as a last resort as MoD leadership pushed him out of the picture. This was a desperate bid, but possibly better than fading away with no security guarantees

1/n That’s no longer possible. I have to believe that witnessing the Russian military’s failures in Ukraine firsthand has led to some hubris on the part of Prigozhin and co.

2/n

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1672540680646713345

- Russian Volunteer Corps claim that Belgorod Governor Gladkov did not agree to prisoner exchange
- Prigozhin offered to meet on exchange, RDK’s Kapustin welcomed the offer
- Prigozhin and RDK express respect for one another

theins.ru/news/262294 Insider interprets Kapustin’s comments as him saying that he won’t turn prisoners over to Prigozhin, however, but to UA military.

Prigozhin is claiming that Wagner’s route out of Bakhmut has been mined by MoD. Today, he also publishes report from a Wagner Engineer-Sapper Battalion accusing 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of firing on Wagner sappers on May 17th. Claims commander of that MoD unit was drunk. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… The report specifically accuses a lieutenant colonel of v/ch 13647 of being intoxicated and the cause of the friendly fire incident

Pro-Wagner channels have for months posted dubious but very detailed maps on the situation in Bakhmut. This isn’t unusual in the milblogger space, but the effort put into these across multiple channels is unique. Now they are pivoting to highlight “MoD retreat” This map is from Aleksandr Simonov, who is embedded with Wagner. It accuses the following MoD units of leaving their positions in last 48 hrs
- 9th Motor Rifle Regiment
- 4th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade
- 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade
- 374th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade

In response to MoD spokesperson Konashenkov’s announcement of “regrouping” of Russian forces near Bakhmut, Prigozhin responds by saying that they are in fact fleeing the lines and have allowed UA forces to advance to tactically advantageous areas like the route to Chasiv Yar. It’s entirely possible Prigozhin is bluffing to make the MoD look bad, as he has warned about concern of encirclement for weeks, and has already accused MoD units of abandoning their posts.

In 27-minute May 9 video, Prigozhin rambles about lack of ammunition for Wagner, MoD deserting positions, & inserts an interesting phrase: “The happy grandfather thinks he is fine…what if it turns out he is a complete asshole?” “Grandfather” is established nickname for Putin. This is characteristically ambiguous, could be directed at other leadership he has historically criticized, but has captured the attention of Russian journalists in the aftermath of Putin victory parade speech.

As usual, predicting what will happen in the next 24 hours with Wagner is nigh impossible (incomplete info, Prigozhin as unreliable source) but we can interpret possibilities based on his announcement that they are staying.

1. Best case for Wagner, Surovikin is magic bullet

1/ Wagner now gets access to ammunition at least to levels they were in the fall. Doesn’t resolve manpower issues with prison recruiting halted, what the counteroffensive will portend for Wagner etc. but opens possibility of claiming victory in Bakhmut.

2/

Prigozhin announces that Wagner is withdrawing from future involvement in Ukraine (with some caveats), takes credit accomplishing all objectives in Bakhmut, blames MoD for further failures, says Wagner leadership would never join MOD.

1/ While he says he isnt interested in being lauded as conqueror of Bakhmut, only “ambitions to benefit our people and our state.” He goes on to say that main objective was to expend UA forces and clear path west towards Kramatork etc which he says they accomplished.

2/

Kadyrov leaning into his offer to take over offense on Bakhmut while Prigozhin publicly supports it. Kadyrov says he is coordinating with MoD, claims to have fighters already en route “despite all kinds of stuff about some terrible counteroffensive.”

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1654835605904162817

Here is Prigozhin’s letter to Shoigu asking for clearance for Akhmat to take over Bakhmut assault.

Lots of speculation about events in Bakhmut, so here are my two cents:

1. It’s possible that Wagner stays at least some time longer, but in face of coming counteroffensive and w their exhausted forces, its not a bad time to bow out and let someone else claim the failure. 2. Other Russian PMCs do not have the manpower, equipment, structure, or leadership to take Wagner’s place, at least not immediately. MoD could cycle field commanders off dissolved Wagner to other structures, but that takes time & doesn’t mean immediate battlefield effectiveness

Kadyrov comments on Prigozhin’s attacks on MoD: Says MoD should meet Prigozhin and resolve shortage, as he has also experienced these supply issues. Also criticizes Prigozhin for his attacks and showing dead soldiers. Finally offers to take over assault on Bakhmut w Akhmat forces Link: t.me/RKadyrov_95/36…

Prigozhin publishes text of his announcement of withdrawal from Bakhmut on May 10. Follows his video statement and includes an timeline of events that is intended to make Wagner look like only effective Russian force in the war

1/ Video announcement here:

2/

https://twitter.com/republic_mag/status/1654395554309324801?s=46&t=hiD6u69wKB335tLQfsz_2A

Prigozhin shares graphic video of Wagner fighters killed today, with the most furious message he has yet directed personally at Shoigu and Gerasimov. “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the fucking shells!” “Look at them, you bitches! (…) you sit in expensive clubs (…) your children make YouTube videos (…) you think you have the right to dispose of their [Wagner fighters] lives (…) they came here as volunteers and died so you could gorge yourselves in your offices.”

Wagner mouthpieces claim that recently sacked Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Mikhail Mizintsev accepted offer to become deputy commander of Wagner. This video shows him talking w Wagner field commander Elizarov, discussing tactics & wearing a Wagner patch.

https://twitter.com/jack_mrgln/status/1652351761452072965

Pro-Wagner TG channel Grey Zone says that Mizintsev was one of the few who sought to help Wagner with shell hunger. He served in role as Deputy MoD since September. Sunday Times nicknamed him the Butcher of Mariupol for commanding the siege of that city. t.me/grey_zone/18515

On new Russian PMCs like Gazprom formations Potok, Fakel, Plamya: these appear by most accounts to be another lever for “creeping mobilization.”Pressure is put on businesses to supply men to the front, but there is insufficient incentive or infrastructure create effective units. As a consequence, we see these “PMCs” fielding men with poor equipment, little coordination with RUAF, and no plan for integration with larger force structure.