Jack Margolin Profile picture
Personal acct. Program Director @C4ADS. Conflict finance, guns, crime in data/PAI . I tweet on E. Europe, E. Africa, civil wars, and black metal.
Neal Rauhauser Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
Apr 21 5 tweets 2 min read
Rosgvardia Spetsnaz in Kherson sporting “ISIS Hunters” patch. This doesn’t = Wagner as some in replies suggest, but is interesting in terms of symbols and culture in Russian mil. ISIS Hunters is a Russian-backed Syrian militia that some analysts consider to essentially be a “Wagner subsidiary.” newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-…
Apr 18 4 tweets 2 min read
Today, Putin signed an order awarding the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade “gvardeyskiy” (Guard) honorary status for “heroism, fortitude, and courage.”

Ukrainian intelligence claims that this unit was involved in mass killings and torture in Bucha. ImageImageImage Statement from Ukrainian GUR: facebook.com/10006904288584…
Apr 17 5 tweets 2 min read
Some further images of Task Force Rusich, when a member of Ruskiy Styag, a national socialist band, paid a visit to their team. He also conducted an interview with a member of Rusich, call sign Topaz.
Apr 17 4 tweets 1 min read
Vitaliy Milonov posted an image to VK that he claims shows him and Yevgeniy Prigozhin in Donbas. Milonov is the hyper-reactionary United Russia deputy who led the charge on anti-LGBT laws. Telegram channel Mozhem Obyasnit (formerly Khodorkovskiy’s Otkritie Media) claims that Prigozhin was sent to directly coordinate Wagner Group actions in-country. t.me/mozhemobyasnit…
Apr 16 6 tweets 2 min read
There’s a large body of literature that demonstrates this isn’t true. The system is not fair for anyone. Student debt is destructive; we will all benefit as a society from forgiveness. Most of these kind of takes are from people just kind of thinking about it, or selectively citing statistics like “most debt belongs to high-wealth households”, while a number of studies show how disingenuous this is.
Apr 14 4 tweets 2 min read
Odessa, #Ukraine: The State Bureau of Investigations says they have detained the head of Mariupol council of Opposition Platform — For Life who has rented an apartment in Odessa — and say that he is the ex-husband of Poklonskaya dbr.gov.ua/news/dbr-vikri… It looks increasingly likely that this is Volodymyr Klimenko, who was a member of Mariupol City Council under OPZZh.

Apr 14 4 tweets 2 min read
Back in 2020, our team at @C4ADS worked w/ @Trial and @publiceye_ch to investigate the role of Swiss companies in Libyan fuel smuggling — Yesterday, the Swiss Attorney General formally opened criminal proceedings for the war crime of pillage in this case
trialinternational.org/latest-post/pl… The investigation by @Trial and @publiceye_ch found evidence that a Swiss company had purchased oil from an armed group engaged in smuggling activity without the approval of Libya National Oil Company...

Apr 8 7 tweets 2 min read
As international business have sought to reduce their Russia exposure, Russian has effectively stolen hundreds of foreign-owned, foreign-registered planes.

How is that possible? Russian airlines don't own a lot of their jets. Many of them are leased. Some are leased by Russian companies (Including those like VEB Leasing, which have since been sanctioned), but others are leased by foreign companies.

Apr 8 4 tweets 2 min read
Russia has allowed domestic operators of foreign-registered aircraft to register those aircraft to Russia, in violation of ICAO regulations.

@flightradar24 has published a great, searchable dataset of re-registered Russian-operated aircraft. This is a great dataset to enable future penalties on companies that service, insure, or finance these aircraft. Russian registration makes recovery less likely for lessors, but knowing the new identities of these aircraft can facilitate actions by lessors and law enforcement.
Apr 7 17 tweets 5 min read
What do international restrictions on Russia's aviation industry look like in data? Short thread.

This is a sample of Russian-registered aircraft flights during 24-hour period on April 6th from @icarus_flights.

Not a huge number of flights, lots of Russian-made craft. But if we look at all flights through Russian airspace in the same period, we see MUCH more. This is a sample of around 250 flights from more than 600 results

(Note that the straight lines are imputed travel based on available pings)
Apr 7 4 tweets 1 min read
It takes a particular type of person to look at a country being invaded, overwhelming evidence of war crimes, and fixate on its leadership being “the maestro of PR” Fellas, it PR to be right?
Apr 6 6 tweets 3 min read
Some denying the evidence of mass graves in and around Bucha have tried to dismiss the very clear visual evidence demonstrated by @Maxar (reuters.com/world/europe/s…)

We made a time lapse w high-res imagery from @planet that shows these graves as well Imagery from @planet shows the change over time around the Church of St. Andrew and Pyervozvannoho All Saints — We can see excavation etc.

This is corroborated by reporting on the ground

Apr 5 8 tweets 3 min read
Prigozhin’s structures and Timchenko’s STG play an important role in Russia’s economic influence in Syria. These loan agreements are flagrantly corrupt and entrench Russia’s role in key sectors of the Syrian economy.

For an idea of what Prigozhin’s companies do:
1/ Prigozhin’s Evro Polis LLC won a contract with Syria’s state owned General Petroleum Corporation back in 2017.

The deal: liberate oil fields from ISIS control and get a cut of the profits from those fields

2/ Image
Mar 17 5 tweets 3 min read
The team at @C4ADS has taken deep dives on a few of these individuals, I'll highlight a few of them here.

We've done a substantial amount of work on Prigozhin, particularly his overseas networks, support to Russian mercenaries, and foreign interference. We linked information on Prigozhin's larger Russian network with Syrian oil contracts to identify his network behind a mysterious company that won offshore rights in Syria.

Mar 8 8 tweets 3 min read
Photos of a Russian armored train, reportedly sighted near Melitopol. Ukrainian residents and Russian media (Zvezda) have published images and video. Appears to be armed with anti-aircraft auto cannons. More in thread

Images & video have been published by t.me/milinfolive ImageImage Video from pro-Russian television channel Zvezda
Feb 28 40 tweets 14 min read
Starting a thread on Russian PMCs in the invasion of Ukraine.

The Times of London reports that approx. 400 “Wagner” operatives in Kyiv, given targets in Ukrainian gov’t including Zelensky. UA forces conducting sweep for saboteurs.

thetimes.co.uk/article/volody… @bellingcat states that their sources corroborate this story, but that PMC is “not Wagner.” That could mean a number of things, from entirely new PMC structure, to just new/different entities within Wagner network.
Jan 26 39 tweets 11 min read
THREAD on SOLNCEPEK, a 2021 film in the "Wagner Group series" bankrolled by Evgeniy Prigozhin.

This movie takes place in Luhansk in 2014, provides an origin story for Wagner, and a moral justification for Russia’s war in Ukraine — which is why I'm writing about it today. SOLNCEPEK shows us a version of events that provides moral justification not just for the Russian war in Ukraine in 2014, but also its use of mercenaries and now Russia's threat of an even larger invasion.
Jan 25 6 tweets 3 min read
There is a complete series of “Wagner Comics” that depict Wagner and co. In different locales - CAR, Libya, etc - apparently produced by the same artist who produced the art for the animated short circulated in the CAR. The animated clip
Jan 25 4 tweets 2 min read
Russian “Officers’ Union” (COSI), representing Russian contractors in the CAR, releases statement on Burkina Faso: “If Russian instructors are invited to train the army of Burkina Faso, they can do it effectively.” ImageImage Other than that, it basically echoes Maksim Shugalei’s statements - coup in Burkina Faso is part of anti colonial push, Mali leading the charge, etc
Jan 24 7 tweets 2 min read
Maksim Shugalei, one of the main faces of Russian political influence in developing world, shares his thoughts on Burkina Faso: part of “the new liberation of Africa” connecting w similar patterns in Mali, and a history of anti colonialism that “began w the participation of USSR” Image Shugalei calls Assimi Goita of Mali the “new African Che Guevara” - Mali taking the lead in this pan-Africa revolution
Jan 20 4 tweets 2 min read
The US Treasury has sanctioned four Ukrainian politicians in relation to "Russia's harmful foreign activities" under EO14024:

Vladimir Oliynik
Vladimir Sivkovich
Oleh Voloshyn
Taras Kozak

home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/… Kozak has been wanted by Ukrainian authorities for treason and looting of natural resources in Crimea since May of 2021