Thread by @GLandsbergis

During the Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here’s how it is: Things are not going well. 🧵

It is good practice to evaluate things honestly - with all their gloominess. And if we don't shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In Ukraine, in the rest of Europe and possibly globally. 🧵

Ukraine is starved of ammunition and forced to pull back, Europe is facing challenges which might test Article 5, and global instability emerges because autocrats are emboldened by Russia's action and our cautious response. This is not pessimism. This is fact. 🧵

Baseless optimism is a form of self-deception, it is demobilising us. How can we expect to convince the public to spend more on defence, take a stronger stance against Russia and support countries on the eastern flank if leaders won’t admit there is an urgent need? 🧵

And we need action right now, because tomorrow might be too late. We need a push, a jolt, a shock to wake us up. The war is not over, it's far from won, the enemy is very much alive and our European future is at stake. 🧵

I have no doubt that the West has the capacity to help Ukraine win this war. That is a fact. It is also clear that Russia’s industrial power is no match for the united West. But... 🧵

We don't lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support Ukraine and maintain our collective security. Russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy Ukraine and reestablish the Russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this? 🧵

Currently we are an open book to our adversary - clear red lines of non-engagement, disagreements over continuation of assistance and an optimistic blindness to increasing risks. We show no urgency in ramping up our readiness. 🧵

Strategically the goal should be to change Putin's calculations. Disrupt the field. I know it’s not easy, but it is better to admit mistakes and chart a new path forward, rather than to engage in empty self-congratulation.

So yes, I am returning from Munich a bit gloomy. 🧵