Nice stories don’t win wars. Without significant deliveries of weapons and real security guarantees the glorious narrative of unity and solidarity with Ukraine is wearing thin and rapidly approaching cynicism. 🧵👇 Comforting stories can help win elections. But if they are false they immobilise us, prevent us from taking real action, while Ukrainians continue to die for us. 🧵

We declare red lines for ourselves, but not for Russia. We publicly tie our own hands while leaving Putin free to pillage, rape and destroy. We create strategic transparency, not strategic ambiguity. It's time to change course. 🧵 Putin is prepared to cross borders, subvert democratic governments, ignore treaties and rewrite the past in an attempt to legitimise the invasion and annexation of his so-called “lands of historic Russian interest”. 🧵

Today we, the Baltic States 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 and Czechia 🇨🇿 come to this Council to address the entire international community with a very simple message:

For all our sakes, wake up. 🧵 Mme President,
I speak on behalf of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, and my own country Lithuania.
Today and tomorrow, many will yet again call on Russia to end its brutal war against Ukraine. 🧵

Europe had a security architecture with Russia which was supposed to guarantee inviolability of borders, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The UN Charter, Helsinki Accords, Budapest Memorandum, Istanbul commitments, to name but a few of the agreements. 🧵 When eastern flank countries were on their way to NATO, there were those who felt the need to reassure Russia by concluding the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997. But Russia rendered this obsolete with attacks against Georgia and Ukraine. 🧵

During the Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here’s how it is: Things are not going well. 🧵 It is good practice to evaluate things honestly - with all their gloominess. And if we don't shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In Ukraine, in the rest of Europe and possibly globally. 🧵

We need to change our strategy from “as long as it takes” to “whatever victory takes”. So what would victory take? Let’s compare Poland’s recent procurements to the amount of equipment the world has given Ukraine: 🧵1/4 Poland is a similar size to Ukraine and has a similar population. Poland thinks more than 1000 tanks and hundreds of HIMARS are necessary to defend Poland. So why do we ask Ukrainians to liberate territory with less than a tenth of that? 🧵2/4

For nearly 25 years we have been kicking can down the road, trying to contain Putin's imperialism with dialogue and diplomacy while he continues to ignore borders and flatten cities. 🧵👇 In 2014, Russia's first attack against Ukraine was paused by the Minsk agreements, but the underlying issues were left for another day. Russia became tomorrow's problem. 🧵

Russia is imperialist and has always been imperialist. This is what today’s Russians have inherited from their past. In Lithuania, we know all about the history of Russian “culture and humanity” from bitter experience. Some examples… 🧵1/10 Not long ago the Kremlin was sending tanks to crush Lithuanian independence. This was standard treatment for any country trying to break free from Soviet occupation. This is Russian imperialism. 🧵2/10

Every two years Russia holds a military exercise called ZAPAD, and usually it involves planning an invasion of NATO with threats of nuclear attacks. 🧵1/8
#QuoVadisEuropa In 2009 Russia and Belarus excercised for an attack on a NATO country which looked like a Baltic country, threatening a nuclear attack on Warsaw if Poland would try to stop the advance. 2/8

For years the West said economic cooperation would persuade dictators to support rules based international order. But all we did was feed their economies while letting them break all the rules. China is betting that we will repeat this mistake. It's time to try something else👇🧵 We bought energy, we transferred technology, we invested in totalitarian regimes. We enabled them to grow. Not for the practical benefits, but due to the messianic delusion that the spread of western influence is inevitable and can only bring change for good.

China is not trying to help Russia, or anybody else. China only helps China. Xi is trying to create an alternative to Pax Americana, realigning as many countries as possible under a new order: Pax Sinica. This what this means: 🧵 China’s model is based on domination, not negotiation. Subscribers to Pax Sinica receive China’s aid without burdensome human rights requirements, but eventually fall into traps that ensure the house always wins. Pax Cynica, no less.

We all want peace in Ukraine, but a lasting peace cannot be based on myths. Here are the myths that must be discarded before we can talk about achieving sustainable peace: 🧵 Myth 1: Ukraine is unable to win back all territory including Crimea.
Reality: Ukrainians have shown repeatedly that they can restore territorial integrity, given the necessary weapons and training. Our support can be decisive. The ball is in our court. Ukraine can win.

The thing that holds us back is fear. We are afraid of what will happen if Russia actually loses this war. 🧵 There is no win-win scenario in Ukraine. For the foundations of international law to survive, Ukrainians must regain and retain 100% of their territory and sovereignty.

Why aren’t we sending Ukraine all the tools needed to end the war? Why are we avoiding specifics during the debate on Ukraine‘s membership of NATO? Because the belief is still alive that after the war we can return to business as usual, as if February 24th was just a glitch. The tactic of leaving Russia undefeated and ready for future partnership is toxic. It leads to calls to end the war by negotiation instead of ending it with a Ukrainian victory. Some even suggest Ukrainian territorial concessions to the invaders as a gift.

Longer-range coastal defences in the Black Sea along with military escorts for shipping would boost Ukraine's economy, secure grain exports and avert a global food crisis.🧵 Sooner or later we will inevitably have to strengthen security in the Black Sea, especially if Putin refuses to renew the "Grain for Peace" deal in November, which he is already threatening to do.

Putin’s genocidal plan to wipe Ukraine off the map has failed. He is in no position to negotiate. The war must end with his unconditional surrender. 🧵 Ukraine’s heroes have exceeded our expectations daily. Thanks to the inspiring leadership of @ZelenskyyUa, @DmytroKuleba, @oleksiireznikov and others the definition of impossible has been rewritten.