The Trump-Putin Pact already exists, and we should act accordingly. There are some things we will never change with nice words or smart clothing. If you are worried about those things, you should understand where Trump's tactics come from. From Russia.
A thread. 🧵1/14 The fact that military assistance to Ukraine might have been cut before Zelensky’s meeting with Trump in the Oval Office—and only later reconnected—should serve as an example of the current mindset in Washington.🧵2/14

We said “as long as it takes,” and well, it's gonna take a bit longer. Europe doesn’t need to back down now, not for Putin, not for Trump, not for anyone else who tests us. We can step up and stand firm. Here’s how:🧵1/8 🇪🇺Push back.
The US is important but not omnipotent. Zelenskyy proved that pushing back can work. Firmness commands respect.🧵2/8

I want to tell you a story. In 2015, I was in a Lithuanian city of Panevežys, standing with the locals, watching a military parade. But this was no ordinary parade, because marching alongside the Lithuanian troops were our American allies.🧵1/16 Not long after Russia annexed Crimea, in an impressive show of solidarity, Bradleys, Humvees, and Abrams rolled through Lithuanian streets that, just a quarter of a century earlier had been under occupation by the Soviet Union.🧵2/16

On a cold December evening in 2021, during an OSCE meeting in Stockholm, Lavrov outlined what he called “a new security architecture” for Europe. And Trump, knowingly or otherwise, might now be implementing those plans.🧵1/5 Apart from the usual nonsense about biolabs and nukes, Lavrov demanded that for stability in Europe, NATO must go back to its 1997 borders, retreating from everything except East Germany. So why wouldn’t Putin ask for this in Riyadh? It seems much more than likely.🧵2/5

Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good.
This is what we now know, and what we now have to do about it:🧵1/17 Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. The US President wants a deal, and he wants it fast. Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill. So, ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay the price.🧵2/17

🧵1/6
Europe won't survive sleeping through another wake-up call. We should jump out of bed and throw on a shirt. We should do what we can, with what we’ve got. And we’ve got a lot. Here's how to step things up as the US steps down: 🧵2/6
Ukraine’s full integration into the EU has to start now, in 2025, not 2030. Alongside economic benefits, the EU can also serve as a deterrence umbrella, and Ukraine should be under it.

President Trump put Putin in a tough spot by issuing an ultimatum. I'm sure this is not the way Putin expected things to work.🧵1/4 Now Putin has to choose - accept that he fears new sanctions because his economy is a shambles, or prove that his imperialist ambitions will not be limited by these demands.🧵2/4

Bloomberg reports that the EU is considering dropping its @wto case against China due to a "lack of evidence" that China's sudden halt in trade with Lithuania was retribution for supporting Taiwan. Dropping the case is a bad idea, but don't worry, it gets worse.🧵1/6 Withdrawing without even waiting for the official ruling means abandoning the defence of the single market, accepting China's argument and allowing a precedent to be set. China could then attack any other country in the same way.🧵2/6

So… what can you do with a nuclear bully?
1. Provide protection to the victims
2. Punish escalation with escalation
🧵1/7 If a country does not have the protection of its own nukes, or the nukes of friendly allies, unfriendly nuclear powers will come along and threaten it into submission. Bullies attack the unprotected.
🧵2/7

🧵There are five illusions about Ukraine that lead to flawed “peace” plans that are doomed to fail. I have listed the illusions here in the hope that reality-based discussions can soon become the norm.👇
1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣4️⃣5️⃣ 1️⃣The Illusion of Diplomacy.
Diplomacy alone cannot keep Ukraine safe. Words must be backed up by strength on the battlefield. To get a fair deal you have to carry a very big stick, not just an olive branch. Ukraine must be much stronger if Europe wants to stay secure.👇

The peacemongers have failed.
Escalation was not managed, conflicts were not contained, people were not protected, laws were not respected. Now I hear victory is "unrealistic" and not even worth fighting for. But I see things very differently, and here's why. 👇🧵1/10 The messy failure and total bankruptcy of our strategy is hard to watch. In desperation some hallucinate that a “peace agreement” would be achievable, effective, practical and sustainable, a magic wand to make all the bad things go away. 🧵2/10

Idealists say aggression is fundamentally unacceptable. Realists say Russia is so strong that resistance is futile and acceptance is the only answer.
Well, I say we are strong enough to defend our ideals, and fighting back is the most realistic choice. Here's why. 👇🧵1/16 Russia is attacking Ukraine not because of a threat, a diplomatic dispute or a broken promise. Russia is attacking solely because, in the Kremlin's view, Ukraine is weaker and therefore attackable. In other words, the attacks would stop if Ukraine was stronger. 2/16

If all NATO members followed Lithuania and increased defence spending to at least 3% of GDP, there would be an extra $270bn available for supporting Ukraine and defending NATO's borders. I hear this is politically "impossible", but here's how Lithuania did it: 🧵1/12 Public support for defence spending requires a new social contract and a widespread understanding of the risks of inaction. In Lithuania, we understand the risk of Russian aggression far too well, our civilians have died under T-72 tanks. 🧵2/12

I would like to address the recurring question of those “ordinary Russians” who “shouldn’t be sanctioned”.🧵1/7 I hear talk of ordinary Russians’ innocence, but then I see ordinary Russians murdering ordinary Ukrainians.🧵2/7

My thoughts on my way back to Lithuania after the NATO Summit.🧵 The event was well organised and sent a strong message to the people of America about the respect the USA is attracting from its allies and partners.🧵

Will the EU listen to the people of Georgia and choose hope? Or will we discard our European values and compromise?
I have a lot to process after visiting Tbilisi. I will try to lay it all out in this thread. 🧵👇 🇬🇪‣ So called Transparency Law doesn’t seem to be about transparency. Most likely, the aim is to single out NGOs that are critical of political processes in the country and force them into submission. The ones that will be targeted are mostly financed by the EU and the US.🧵

Nice stories don’t win wars. Without significant deliveries of weapons and real security guarantees the glorious narrative of unity and solidarity with Ukraine is wearing thin and rapidly approaching cynicism. 🧵👇 Comforting stories can help win elections. But if they are false they immobilise us, prevent us from taking real action, while Ukrainians continue to die for us. 🧵

We declare red lines for ourselves, but not for Russia. We publicly tie our own hands while leaving Putin free to pillage, rape and destroy. We create strategic transparency, not strategic ambiguity. It's time to change course. 🧵 Putin is prepared to cross borders, subvert democratic governments, ignore treaties and rewrite the past in an attempt to legitimise the invasion and annexation of his so-called “lands of historic Russian interest”. 🧵

Today we, the Baltic States 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 and Czechia 🇨🇿 come to this Council to address the entire international community with a very simple message:

For all our sakes, wake up. 🧵 Mme President,
I speak on behalf of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, and my own country Lithuania.
Today and tomorrow, many will yet again call on Russia to end its brutal war against Ukraine. 🧵

Europe had a security architecture with Russia which was supposed to guarantee inviolability of borders, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The UN Charter, Helsinki Accords, Budapest Memorandum, Istanbul commitments, to name but a few of the agreements. 🧵 When eastern flank countries were on their way to NATO, there were those who felt the need to reassure Russia by concluding the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997. But Russia rendered this obsolete with attacks against Georgia and Ukraine. 🧵

During the Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here’s how it is: Things are not going well. 🧵 It is good practice to evaluate things honestly - with all their gloominess. And if we don't shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In Ukraine, in the rest of Europe and possibly globally. 🧵