Thread by @sfrantzman

When Hamas launched the October 7 attack, likely with backing and advise from several countries that host and back Hamas, it knew that there would be an Israeli response. It assumed if it took enough a hostages then it could somehow force talks to go on for years...while it benefited.

It's important to understand that Hamas has been able to carry out massacres and attacks for three decades because each time it does it, it relies on the international community to quickly rush to make sure there is a ceasefire. So the process is:

1. Hamas attacks
2. Israel responds
3. Ceasefire.
4. Hamas attacks again.

Hamas is the "tool" that was found by some in the international community in the late 1980s and early 1990s to prevent peace and it was always on hand to be picked up to attack Israel whenever there was any sign of peace. They reach for the "tool" each time, during the Oslo process, in the Second Intifada...after Disengagement etc.

It's so obvious because Disengagement was an opportunity to help Gaza thrive...but the international community and other backers of Hamas reached for their tool to have Hamas take over Gaza. No one reached for the tool of peace and moderation, which would have been easy to reach for.

October 7 was planned as a major moment for Hamas, it would committ an unprecedented massacre, then hold hostages for years to bring in billions more for its tunnels in Gaza and then use the hostages to gain more influence in the West Bank. When Abbas passes, Hamas would swoop in...it would make itself a "tool" again to be picked up to take over Ramallah for its patrons and benefactors abroad.

It's important to understand also that Hamas believed on October 7 that there was a time limit to Israel's reaction...Israel would be allowed to "run wild" for a few weeks...and then there would be a ceasefire and deal and the war would stop so Hamas can replenish its thousands of rockets and start a new war the next year or two.

This is the model for Hamas. Start a war, bring ruin on part of Gaza...use the rebuilding of Gaza to construct tunnels and arsenals...start a war, bring ruin, reconstruct tunnels...

It's important to understand that Hamas did this because in past wars it didn't lose very many fighters. Usually 100 to 1,000 fighters and then it would replace them. All the destruction caused by Israeli bombs can be rebuilt and Hamas contractors make the money doing reconstruction and for each dollar that comes half of it or something like that goes to Hamas and tunnels.

In fact each war was a "win" for Hamas because for each building hit by an IDF bomb, Hamas can then openly build a tunnel underneath as part of "reconstruction"....it doesn't even had to hide that it replaces whole ruined areas with new terror infrastructure, enhanced and embedded in new civilian homes. Fully integrated. As militaries say "5th gen"...

And Hamas always benefits from war because when there are civilian casualties it can use this to bring the ceasefire faster and bring condemnation of Israel. Hamas has its connections abroad via its allies and partners who mobilize protests and activists. In the May 2021 conflict with Israel there was a dry run to mobilize attacks on Jewish communities abroad, for instance.

So we have to understand how Hamas thought on October 6. It believed it would use the hostages to bring itself power in Ramallah. It believed that after a few weeks the war would end and it would thrive.

Now, four months in, it knows that it has not been able to get Israel to do a ceasefire, but it watches the UN and it knows the votes are getting closer. It is being advised by its host country to hold out a little longer. Hold out in Rafah and then filtrate back to northern Gaza and return to power.

Hamas also knows that quietly, behind the scenes many international organizations prefer its rule in Gaza. For instance they speak about Hamas police as "law and order" and if there aren't Hamas gunmen to guard the humanitarian aid they are displeased...they feel secure when Hamas is there. It's their partner.

The idea that anyone but Hamas could or would control Gaza is worrisome to many international stakeholders there. Hamas has been their loyal partner for decades. Hamas police are the ones they work with. In areas without Hamas they call it "lawless"....in essence Hamas is the preferred authoritarian they want.