Thread by @michael_hoerger

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Forecast for the next month
Over the next month, we should see transmission fall from 790,000 infections/day toward more like a range of 200,000-450,000 infections per day, depending on better or worse scenarios.

That's "good" news in the relative sense for those putting off medical appointments the past 6 months, though still extremely high transmission in any objective sense.

See the online report for details on the models.

Surge in Context
At this point in the surge, it is clear that the peak transmission day was around December 27 (1.92 million/day), and the midpoint of “surging” infections (>1 million/day) was around January 9.

We are estimated to have had 85 total days with >1 million infections per day (November 28 through February 20) during the surge, though these numbers may still fluctuate with corrections the next few weeks.

The low-point leading into the surge was October 18 at 547,000 infections/day. Infections have been at “wave” levels (>500,000 infections/day or higher) since the onset of the late summer wave surpassed that milestone on July 27. We are estimated to dip below 500,000 infections/day around March 6.

This is very unfortunate timing because the medical facilities that enacted universal masking may end policies on March 1. Many were hoping for a period of lower transmission before such policies ended. As of today, the estimated low point for transmission is March 27 (348,000 infections/day), but the level and date are subject to much uncertainty.

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Current State of the Pandemic
🔹73 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far)
🔹790,000 daily infections
🔹1.66% (1 in 60) actively infectious
🔹40,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day

Deeper Dive
Transmission is finally starting to decline again, and expect major declines the next four week.

U.S. wastewater levels indicate that COVID transmission is higher than during 58.4% of the days of the pandemic (down from 85.9% a week ago). Transmission is lower than 41.6% of the pandemic.

As we noted the past two weeks, we believed the post-peak hill was itself peaking on around February 7th and that last week’s slightly higher values might get retroactively corrected downward. That was, in fact, the case (the peak was the 7th), and transmission has fallen further since.

We are still at very high “wave” levels, but no longer “surging” at over a million infections/day. The big picture remains very bad, but this is good news for people putting off medical appointments for months.

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Risks in Group Settings
Although transmission is falling, it's easy to get distracted by the relative changes and ignore that the absolute risk remains high, especially in large groups with limited or no mitigation.

In a group of 10, there's a 15% at least one person is actively infectious. In a group of 30, it's a 40% chance, and so forth. Almost nobody would take those chances of a serious illness if informed and capable of grappling with the seriousness of that risk without becoming defensive. Unfortunately, a lot of institutions are pushing minimizer narratives if not directly forcing students and workers into more dangerous settings.

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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International Comparisons
The percentage of the U.S. actively infectious (1.7%) is very much in line with recent high-quality estimates for Canada (2.1%) and the U.K. (1.5%).

All three countries are following a similar pattern, though Canada and the U.K. appear to have peaked earlier, and are likely seeing earlier declines in transmission. Note that their numbers are marginally more delayed.

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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