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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA
@michael_hoerger
Expert in weighing medical evidence, cancer, COVID forecasting & mitigation, health disparities, financial analytics. 120 publications. PhD program director.
46 subscribers
Jul 15 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 14, 2025 (U.S.) 🧵

We estimate 1 in 148 Americans are actively infectious. This equates to 2.3 million infections/week, expected to result in >100,000 new #LongCOVID conditions & >800 deaths.

A room of 100 people is a coin toss of an exposure. Figure shows each wave of the pandemic. Tables: Current Levels for Jul 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 148) New Daily Infections 324000 New Weekly Infections 2268000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 113,000 to 454,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.3% (1 in 80) Average New Daily Infections 598766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 17963000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 898,000 to 3,593,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 6,400 to 10,700 Running Totals Infection... 2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 14, 2025 (U.S.) 🧵

Transmission (red) is closely tracking the path of 2 years ago (yellow). However, the incoming data are spotty. >20% of CDC states have limited/no data, & Biobot hasn't reported in weeks.

Could be MUCH worse or slightly better. Graph of year over year transmission. The current year (red) is tracking the path of two years ago (yellow) extremely closely. Two years ago, the peak was around September 1, at about 1 million daily estimated infections, and significantly higher than the Delta wave (blue).
Jul 2 • 43 tweets • 25 min read
🌍Want to track COVID transmission accurately worldwide?

This PMC thread walks you through leading dashboards with information more up to date than WHO & EU directories.

🧵 1/ World map, countries with high-quality up-to-date surveillance systems shown in blue. The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) Dashboard provides weekly COVID updates for the U.S., using wastewater surveillance derived case estimation models and analytic forecasting.

We have added a list of international dashboards:
🧵 2/
pmc19.com/data/index.php…Australia: NSW Health Australia Department of Health, Western Australia Austria: Federal Government of Austria City of Vienna - Regional Coron-A Consortium Austria Czech Republic: State Health Institute Czech Republic Belgium: Belgian Institute for Health Canada: Government of Canada Andrew Young's Canada Visualization C19 Resources Canada * World Health Network (WHN) Canada **
Denmark: Statens Serum Institut Denmark Europe (multi-national): EU Wastewater Observatory Finland: National Institute for Health and Welfare Finland WHN Finland ** France: French Republic Data Airborne Risk Reduction Association (ARRA) France Zan Armstrong's France Visualization COVID Weather App France (Android, IOS, or Web) Thomas Delattre's France Visualization Germany: Infection Radar Germany Bay-VOC Bavaria Region Berlin Waterworks WHN Germany **
Hong Kong: Centre for Health Protection, Hong Kong Hungary: National Center for Public Health and Pharmacy of Hungary India: Pune Knowledge Cluster of India Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre of India Ireland: Health Protection Surveillance Centre Ireland Japan: Japan Institute for Health Security Latvia: Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment Latvia Lithuania: National Public Health Centre of Luthuania Luxembourg: Microbs Luxembourg Netherlands: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Netherlands WHN Netherlands ** New Zealand: New Zealand Institute for...
Slovenia: National Institute of Public Health Slovenia Spain: Government of Catalonia - Regional South Africa: National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa South Korea: Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency Sweden: Pathogens Sweden Switzerland: Swiss Confederation Federal Office of Public Health ETH Zurich Switzerland WISE Dashboard U.K.: Public Health Scotland Buckinghamshire Disability Service (BuDS) U.K. *See the numbers 1-21 along the lower left. Click on 3-6 for national and regional data. ** Click on the dropdown menu. May need to try a different web browser.
Jun 24 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

🔥Biggest uptick since Jan
🔥1 in 167 actively infectious
🔥>2 million weekly infections
🔥700-1,200 resulting excess deaths from weekly infections

Track transmission closer to home w/our new state & international resources 👇

🧵1/6 PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹With >90% probability, we have entered the 11th COVlD wave.
🔹In a room of 50 people, there is already a 1 in 4 chance of an exposure.
🔹We expect nearly 15 million infections in the next month, and rising.

🧵2/6Current Levels for Jun 23, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.6% (1 in 167) New Daily Infections 287000 New Weekly Infections 2009000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 100,000 to 402,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 700 to 1,200 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 97) Average New Daily Infections 493300 New Infections During the Next Month 14799000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 740,000 to 2,960,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 5,300 to 8,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 74869000 Average Number of Infect...
Jun 17 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July. Our current forecast...Year over year graph of tranmission 2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Our current forecast is a bit more aggressive, predicting breaking 500k daily infections by July 9. The 2023 trend suggests end of July.

The 95% confidence interval shows large variation. Note that...Past 12 months of transmission (U.S.) and forecast
Jun 16 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.

It's new grant submissions too... "No forbidden words found" 2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.

Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
Jun 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

CDC wastewater surveillance data show transmission rising. This is our forecast if transmission growth follows typical patterns.

The high & low estimates could be thought of as optimistic & pessimistic scenarios for NB.1.8.1.Forecast graph: Rising transmission the next month 2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Notice that current transmission (red line, lower left) tracks closely with two years ago (yellow), slightly below the median (gray), and not far below last year (orange).

Consider each of these trajectories realistic scenarios.Image
Jun 3 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

National COVlD transmission recently fell to its lowest levels since the pre-Delta era.

It's go-time for many who have delayed medical appointments. The situation will likely get much worse in Jul/Aug. 2/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

An estimated 1 in 211 are actively infectious. Most states are "low" or "very low" per CDC.

The situation remains serious even in a relative "lull." >1.5 million weekly estimated infections to result in 600-900 excess deaths.C19 heat map
year over year graph, tracking closely with the median and past 2 years
Current Levels for Jun 2, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 211) New Daily Infections 227000 New Weekly Infections 1589000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 79,000 to 318,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 900 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 139) Average New Daily Infections 344566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10337000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 517,000 to 2,067,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 70132000 Average Number of Infe...
Graph of the whole pandemic, 11th wave forthcoming
May 26 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The lull exit is coming. Despite being in a lull:

🔥1 in 180 actively infectious
🔥1.9 million weekly infections
🔥>93,000 new #LongCOVID cases from the week's infections
🔥1,100 excess deaths from the week's infections

This is a "lull." 2) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The forecast calls for a near-doubling in transmission the next month to 450k daily infections.

The 95% confidence interval includes flat transmission (percolating), or escalating to 650k (if NB.1.8.1 takes off). Forecasting graph, summarized in post
May 25 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1) CDC & Biobot wastewater surveillance both show the West region in an apparent uptick in C19 transmission.

Here's the graph of regional transmission from CDC data with the West in green: Estimated Percentage Actively Infectious* PMC Model Raw CDC Data National 0.6% (1 in 180) 0.5% (1 in 196) Northeast 0.4% (1 in 236) 0.4% (1 in 257) Midwest 0.5% (1 in 209) 0.4% (1 in 227) South 0.6% (1 in 160) 0.6% (1 in 175) West 0.8% (1 in 129) 0.7% (1 in 140) 2) This image zooms in on the West (green line) so you can see the apparent departure from the C19 lull more easily. Zoomed in graph from prior post. More stats in the ALT text there.
May 20 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
PMC COVlD Report, May 19, 2025 (U.S.)

In this national "lull" in transmission, we are seeing...
🔥A quarter-million daily infections
🔥90-360k Long COVlD cases from the week's infections
🔥600-1,100 deaths from the week's infections
🔥LA, SD, NE, & GU in high transmission10 waves of C19
Heat map, summarized in post
Current Levels for May 19, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 185) New Daily Infections 259000 New Weekly Infections 1813000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 91,000 to 363,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,100 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 129) Average New Daily Infections 371566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 11147000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 557,000 to 2,229,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,000 to 6,600 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 66986000 Average Number of I...
Year-over-year graph, currently closely tracking the median, Y4, and Y5 Full report: pmc19.com/data
May 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1) Good luck getting any new federal research to support #LongCOVID until "covid" is dropped from the dirty words that get grant applications triaged to the trash bin.

You know which senator to call.

I just did, and got a staffer instead of voicemail.Lengthy list of words that get federal grants triaged to the trash bin, unfunded after favorable review, or defunded if already in progress. Includes "Covid-19," and no, it's not a matter of simply restating as "SARS2" or "The Rona." It might make it one step further in the review process, but this gets checked closed, and it will get canned. Hundreds of hours of work, flushed down the toilet. And that's the point. 2) I told the staffer that #LongCOVID is affecting millions and that no research will be funded to address this while "covid" remains on the banned word list.

I asked if they wanted to hear more. He did...

Here's the word list, btw
pen.org/banned-words-l…
May 3 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
30 million excess deaths attributable to COVID is a tremendous underestimate because most analyses insufficiently account for mortality displacement.

In the U.S., it's about 50% worse than people realize. Mortality displacement or "harvesting" is the idea that so many people died of COVID in the early pandemic that we should actually expect to see *fewer* deaths today if COVID were "over."
Apr 22 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
🧵1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Only 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
🌤️1 in 196 actively infectious
⚡️BUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it... Current Levels for Apr 21, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 196) New Daily Infections 244000 New Weekly Infections 1708000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 85,000 to 342,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 147) Average New Daily Infections 324800 New Infections During the Next Month 9744000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 487,000 to 1,949,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,500 to 5,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 62331000 Average Number of Infecti... 🧵2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead. year over year graph, summarized in post
Apr 14 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🧵1/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹2.2 million weekly infections
🔹1 in 149 actively infectious
🔹>100,000 LC cases resulting from the week's infections
🔹>800 deaths resulting from the week's infections
🔹"Lull" transmission steady/slightly decliningCurrent Levels for Apr 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 149) New Daily Infections 320000 New Weekly Infections 2240000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 112,000 to 448,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 138) Average New Daily Infections 345366.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10361000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 518,000 to 2,072,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 60891000 Average Number of ... 🧵2/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

Year-over-year transmission (red line, lower left) is tracking the median (grey), year 4 (yellow), and year 5 (orange) closely.

If that trend continues, expect steady yet bumpy transmission the next couple months, until June/July.line graphs, described in tweet
Apr 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The NIH Clinical Center drops universal masking after 5 months of protecting patients, family, & staff.

Wastewater-derived estimates indicate 2.79 million Americans are getting Covid per week AND top actuaries suggest an American dies of Covid every 3 minutes.

🧵1/5 Masks are optional beginning April 11. Staff will mask on request. These are the current wastewater-derived estimates of transmission.

2.79 million Covid infections/week in the U.S. in the current high "lull."
🧵2/5
Apr 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, April 7, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹1 in 120 actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a room of 50
🔹2.8 million weekly infections
🔹>140,000 resulting LC cases from the week's infections
🔹>1,000 deaths resulting from the week's infections Current Levels for Apr 7, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) New Daily Infections 399000 New Weekly Infections 2793000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 140,000 to 559,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 1,000 to 1,700 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 105) Average New Daily Infections 455766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 13673000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 684,000 to 2,735,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,900 to 8,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 55591000 Average Number of... 2) Watch this video to understand how we use excess death data from one of the world's largest reinsurers to estimate how this week's infections will result in >1,000 deaths.
Mar 31 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🧵1 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹800-1,400 deaths expected to result from this week's infections (new stat, see video next Tweet)
🔹100,000+ Long Covid conditions to result from this week's infections
🔹1 in 142 actively infectious todayCurrent Levels for Mar 31, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 142) New Daily Infections 337000 New Weekly Infections 2359000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 118,000 to 472,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,400 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) Average New Daily Infections 397233.3333 New Infections During the Next Month 11917000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 596,000 to 2,383,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 52303000 Average Number of ... 🧵2 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

This video explains U.S. COVID excess death statistics, which we have incorporated into the dashboard.

Mar 31 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths

🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re
🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025
🔥Death data added to the dashboard 2) Full video links to learn more about COVID #ExcessDeaths in the U.S.

Dashboard page (presently featured): pmc19.com/data
Downloadable file: pmc19.com/data/deaths033…
Veed platform: veed.io/view/558039f4-…
Mar 24 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/5

🔹3 million new weekly infections in a persistent "lull" of substantial transmission
🔹1 in 107 (0.9%) of the population actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 regions in high/very high transmission (16 states and DC)Heat map of transmission, described in Tweet PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/5

We have had a steady state of about a half million infections the past several weeks. That's over 50 million estimated infections so far in 2025.

In a room of 40-50 people, there's a 1-in-3 chance of exposure if no testing/isolation.Current Levels for Mar 24, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 107) New Daily Infections 446000 New Weekly Infections 3122000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 156,000 to 624,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 96) Average New Daily Infections 496566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 14897000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 745,000 to 2,979,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 50757000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.708526284 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Co...
Mar 11 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
1) 5-yr Anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration

🔥10 waves
🔥Covid mortality rivals lung cancer
🔥8 infections/person by 2030
🔥Long Covid as catastrophic
🔥Death trajectories becoming complex
🔥"During Covid" as anti-science rhetoric
🔥Serious ppl take Covid seriously
🧵 2) Wastewater-derived estimates of case rates show international consensus 20-26% of populations got Covid during the peak 2 months of the 2023-24 winter wave in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.
Feb 26 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1) Mardi Gras 2020 was 5 years ago today. ⚜️

It was before the pandemic declaration, before the federal government recommended masking.

COVlD spread quickly through New Orleans, leading to one of the highest mortality rates per capita in the U.S.... Timeline showing Mardi Gras 2020 just 4 days before the first known reported death of C19 in the U.S. Note. "Peak" diagnoses refers to the peak of the 1st wave. 2) New Orleans service workers were disproportionately hit by the early pandemic. Many died. Many developed #LongCOVID at the time or have now through repeat infections. Many have switched to other sectors....