Thread by @ianellisjones

🚨A LOT going down in the Taiwan Strait—all of this happened in February (a thread)

The Taiwan Strait is one of several flashpoints worth closely watching in the Indo-Pacific.

The situation around Kinmen is escalating, says @GordianKnotRay, as China launches a “gray-zone assault.”

“China has seized on this as an opportunity to increase patrols—so this shows us how China uses pretext as a method for advancing its strategic objectives.”

@GordianKnotRay China is all over Kinmen—surging Coast Guard ships to encircle the island & announcing increased “regular patrols.”

The initial 4 CCG ships dispatched quickly turned into 7 & we’re now up to 11:

I’m not going to go too deep on Kinmen here because I’ve covered it extensively—check out this quick thread for background & timeline:

To celebrate the Lunar New Year, China sent a record-setting 16 weather-spy balloons over & around Taiwan in 2 days.

The balloon barrage—a direct attack on Taiwan’s sovereignty—slowed compared to January (26 total vs 57). Since the first on 7 Dec, 90 balloons have been tracked.

Taiwan tracked 2 Chinese satellite launches this month:

• 23 Feb: the 11th satellite launched under a classified military program using their most powerful rocket (Long March 5)

• 29 Feb: the first of a new “high orbit” satellite series to provide internet services

After a spike around Taiwan’s presidential election in January, PLA air activity is down year-over-year:

PLA naval activity is a different story. The 305 warships monitored by Taiwan's defense ministry to date in 2024 represent a 40% increase over last year.

There's been a considerable & sustained increase in the tempo of operations since major exercises in April 2023.

A group of Congressmen visited Taiwan last week, which drew a “stronger than usual response” from Beijing.

China went so far as to publicly demand the U.S. stop any official contact with Taiwan following the trip.

The high-profile delegation of hawkish U.S. lawmakers met with the current & future President of Taiwan.

I've been watching for any heightened military operations—if Beijing matches words with deeds. So far, I haven’t seen much besides a brief uptick yesterday.

Many developments in the cyber domain, which @TheStudyofWar outlines in great detail.

- Unprecedented leak offers insight into cyber capabilities & influence ops
- Increased Chinese cyberattacks in the hours before Taiwan’s election
- Critical U.S. infrastructure compromised

@TheStudyofWar Taiwan expressed anger after China “unilaterally” changed a flight path close to the median line in the Strait, saying it’s a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.

“It is trying to completely eliminate & deny the existence of the median line.”

@TheStudyofWar “It’s part of the pattern of gradually altering the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, seeing what they can get away with & shifting to a new normal—restricting Taiwan’s space to move,” a source told Reuters.

China announced two high-profile leadership changes:

• Admiral Hu Zhongming appointed Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy
• Hu’s predecessor, Admiral Dong Jun, named Defense Minister

“Embodying Xi’s requirement that his armed forces prepare credible warfighting capabilities, Hu & Dong are the latest in a trend of PLAN leaders bringing increasing operational expertise & focus.”

@TheStudyofWar A few notes from new ISW report:

- Succinct summary of Kinmen situation
- PRC increased deployment of research vessels within 24 nautical miles
- KMT visit may legitimize back channel negotiations
- Beijing’s rhetoric “took on a distinctly bellicose tone compared to last year”

In conclusion:

“The PRC uses such tactics in tandem with near-daily air & naval violations of Taiwan’s ADIZ, Chinese Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen & Matsu, adjustment of civilian flight routes to fly closer to Taiwan, & balloon flights through Taiwan’s airspace to wear down Taiwan’s threat awareness & resources, forcing it to be selective in which perceived incursions it chooses to respond to.

Blurring the lines between military & civilian activities also has the effect of making it more difficult for Taiwan to determine which activities are potential threats.” @TheStudyofWar

@TheStudyofWar 👀 First reports of U.S. permanently stationing military personnel in Taiwan.

Worst kept secret—President Tsai became the first president in 40 years to acknowledge U.S. troops deployed in country.

Caveats: single unconfirmed source (UDN) & “no comments” from MND

Multiple sources reporting the permanent stationing of U.S. troops in Taiwan.

“Following the implementation of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 (NDAA) in the U.S., American military advisors have begun being permanently stationed in Army amphibious bases in Kinmen & Penghu this year.

When asked by Taiwan News to comment on the report, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) stated that the content of the NDAA is aimed at assisting Taiwan in developing comprehensive training & institutionalized capabilities.

“Exchanges with foreign militaries will carried out according to annual plans, & no comments will be made on the details of such activities,” stated the ministry.

Great coverage by @keverington

Spike in PLA air activity—

Back-to-back double-digit days of Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone represent the largest 2-day violation of the year.