Thread by @HartreeFock

FPV usage update 17-03-2024

Data from @AndrewPerpetua and @giK1893, and the support of @tochnyi members.

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In this latest update on FPV drone usage, I have decided to enhance our understanding of the situation by introducing a couple of graphs. These visual aids will shed light on the monthly performance of each side and their efforts in targeting logistical assets.

As we are currently in the middle of the month, it’s noteworthy that Ukrainian forces have shown remarkable performance compared to the Russians. Surprisingly, the Russians are lagging behind in both metrics, particularly in strikes on infantry and vehicles.

This unexpected turn of events is particularly striking in the infantry category, where a significant parity has typically been observed between the two sides, barring exceptions like that of February 2024. If the current trend persists, it will become increasingly apparent that these discrepancies are likely attributed to Russian challenges in deploying an adequate number of drones.

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Data on positions also shows a change, currently in favor of the Ukrainian forces. Looking back, it’s incredible to see such a shift, especially considering their relatively defensive posture. While the data is partial and subject to potential drastic changes, examining previous statistics reveals that this aligns with the overall trend. Trenches are the most frequently targeted positions, accounting for a staggering 70% of total strikes.

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The total number of FPV drones deployed by Ukrainian forces stands at 9155, while Russia has deployed 6422 drones. This growing gap between the two sides indicates a clear shortage of drones, regardless of the underlying reasons. Efforts to validate the data as quadratic have yielded no signs of deviation. Additionally, partial results not factored into defeat are already consistent with past months, affirming the ongoing high level of drone utilization.

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In this new graph, I’ve incorporated the disparity between Ukrainian and Russian strikes each month. There’s a noticeable uptick in October 2023, followed by a gradual decline until December 2023. However, from that point onward, the disparity in drone strikes between Russia and Ukraine has consistently widened in favor of Ukrainian forces. Currently, we cannot fully explain the December trend, but it’s likely attributed to a shortage of parts from foreign countries, hindering FPV drone production and delivery to the front lines. However, with a shift towards more domestic production, this issue has been resolved, resulting in a stable supply chain.

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Regarding night vision and FPV drones, both sides have demonstrated adaptability since the outset. Initially, every FPV drone possessed night vision capabilities, peaking at 101 drone strikes in February. However, the Ukrainians have since closed this gap and currently lead with a total of 62 strikes. It’s highly probable that this lead won’t persist, given Russia’s presumably superior capability in this sector.

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For strikes on logistics, I present the following pie chart illustrating the types of vehicles targeted by FPV drones since their inception. As depicted, Russia has consistently targeted smaller vehicles such as pickups and cars. Conversely, Ukrainian forces have taken a different approach, focusing a significant portion of their strikes on trucks, which account for 56% of all strikes conducted. Additionally, they have targeted loaf vehicles extensively, commonly used by the Russian Army for transporting troops, ammunition, and other war materials along the front lines, comprising 23.6% of the total strikes. It’s evident that both parties have sought to disrupt logistics diversity using FPV drones, but the data suggests Ukrainians have employed them more effectively. Further insights will be forthcoming in the weeks ahead.