Thread by @secretsandlaws

Here's the argument as to why Cannon's potential removal is not ripe at this time:

1. She won't recuse herself if DOJ moves for it, & the district chief judge won't either. It would only come from the 11th Circuit via reassignment on remand after a successful DOJ appeal.

2. Obviously DOJ hasn't appealed anything to date. Frankly, there's been nothing to appeal. DOJ is not going to appeal pre-trial & trial scheduling issues, as a court of appeals is EXTREMELY unlikely to second guess how a judge runs their docket. Being bad on scheduling, and...

...being generally hostile to DOJ during hearings is not grounds for appeal. DOJ need a final appealable order (not going to cover the complex appellate issues here), and there's really be nothing qualifying as such to date that's worth appealing.

3. That said, there are looming issues that could set up appealable orders: disclosing witness identities, granting any of the motions to dismiss, & perhaps some extreme version of granting the motions to compel (it'd have to be bad though; 11th Cir. will defer on discovery).

And then we'll have potential CIPA appeals if we ever get to Section 6(c) litigation (concerning what's disclosed at trial).

4. Even if DOJ appeals something, that doesn't mean they'll ask for her removal on remand. It would depend on how egregious her ruling was.

And there's some suggestion in case law that the 11th Circuit would want to see MULTIPLE instances where she was overturned prior to removing her. See the standard below. It's not clear whether they'd count the search warrant litigation.

As a result, calls for her removal are premature. I get the sentiment, & obviously she's displayed some bias, but DOJ can't appeal based on vibes. They need final - & likely multiple - adverse rulings that can be appealed where she is plaining wrong, & they don't have that yet.

If you disagree, that's fine, but I'd like to see an outline of the arguments you'd make in a brief to the 11th Circuit. That brief don't write.

Adding based on some of the comments: DOJ will absolutely point to the prior 11th Cir. reversals if they ask for her removal. I'm just saying it's not clear under the case law if those rulings + whatever she does on her first appeal will be enough, & this will make DOJ cautious.

Whether DOJ seeks her removal on an appeal will also depend a lot on what the ruling is about & its impact on the case. E.g., Cannon ordering the witness identities to be disclosed would be pretty egregious, but it's not like it would mean that Trump will win the case.

Whereas if she dismissed the case based on the PRA, DOJ would have a stronger case for bias as this ruling would result in dismissal. That's all to say, DOJ's decision will be a complicated risk-reward calculus, & and it's much harder decision than people here think.