1/24 In this SALO we will focus on peace negotiations and their (ir)relevancy in the current status of the war. Russia has a long history of signing treaties and consequently breaking them.
2/24 In 1653 Russia and the Ukrainian cossacks signed the Pereyaslav Treaty. It forged a military alliance and status of autonomy within the empire. Gradually Russia forced them into serfdom. It was a lesson well ingrained into Ukrainian culture: Russians can’t be trusted
3/24 In 1991 the Gorbachev reforms were met with a lot of scepticism. Communist hardliners started a coup, tanks moved into the Red Square. Often forgotten is that there were also plans to send tanks to Kyiv. It never got to that point as Boris Yeltsin overturned the plot.
4/24 In 1992 the Moldovan war formed another warning shot for Ukraine. Russia intervened in small skirmishes of Russian minorities against the Moldovan government. It send soldiers on ‘a peacekeeping’ mission. In reality it established a puppetrepublic run by a Russian general.
5/24 In 1992 turmoil broke out Abkhazia &Ossetia, provinces of Georgia. Russia was swift to ‘protect the brotherly people of Abkhazia’ and send its military. In september a ceasefire was negotiated in Moscow. While Georgia kept its word Russia and the rebels thought otherwise.
6/24 The ceasefire had been used by the Pro Russian side to better its positions. The Georgians fought on but were forced to settle for a peace deal. In 1993 the Sochi Agreements were signed over settling the situation. The parties would withdraw, Russia never did.
7/24 In 2003 there was a successor summit to previous one in Sochi. New rules of the game were to arrange economic settings in the conflict regions. While on paper Russia signed to honour Georgian sovereignty but soon ignored it on a railoadproject.
8/24 Ukraine as young state did realize how the wind was blowing within the Russian echelons. It understood that it had to make arrangements for its security. The '94 Budapest Memorandum was a trade of between dropping its nuclear deterrent for securities on its sovereignty.
9/24 The Budapest memorandum ensured it’s military sovereignty but also its economical, political and cultural freedom. The USSR made similar promisses in the Helsinki Act of 1978 that Russia ratified. “Countries were free to chose their military and economical alliances.”
10/24 The promisses of economical and political sovereignty were soon forgotten. Russia mingled in Ukrainian politics, bribing politicians with lucrative contracts. It set up own media for political lobbying. Gascontracts were used as pressuretool. Russia did as it pleased.
11/24 NATO also made agreements. Russia has overly repeated the claim of the early promisses made by ‘No Nato Expanstion’ by the Germans. It never made it to paper. In 1997 NATO and Russia did sign agreements on enforcing Europes peace and stability.
12/24 It’s safe to say that Russia broke that agreement many times. I've written articles on coup attempts, cyberhacking and terrrorism on European soil by Russia. You can read it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761432…
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1762476…
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1762821…
13/24 A famous case on how hard it is to negotiate with Russia is that of Dzokhar Dudayev. The Chechen leader strived for more independance. He didn’t want a war with Russia but tensions were rising. Dudayev wanted to talk with Yeltsin but was asked $2.000.000 for the favor.
14/24 1996, while Dudayev wasn’t able to prevent the war he might be able to stop it. Dudayev got his phone call to negotiate with the Kremlin, for free even. But his sattelite phone was tracked by the FSB who send a rocket killing him.
15/24 In 1999 at an OSCE summit Russia pledged to remove its troops from Moldovan (Transnistria) and Georgian (Abkhazia & Osetia) soil. But things never materialised. No troops changed positions, Transnistria remained a Russian military outpost.
16/24 While Russia had promissed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty it unwantedly started to built a dam to connect a Crimean island with Russian mainland. The dispute was settled in the 2003 Tuzla treaty. Why did Russia break it? I explain it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1764976…
17/24 In 2008 Russia provoked a war in Georgia. The first thing Russia did was send unmarked provocateurs to stir up conflict. When the Georgians reacted the Kremlin vowed to send a ‘peacekeeping’ mission to ‘protect’ Russian minorities.
18/24 The international community prevented the outbreak of an all out war. A ceasefire was brokered and the OSCE underlined the commitment that both parties should retreat to pre war positions and allow humanitarian aid. Russia just kept it troops stationairy.
19/24 The card to protect minorities has been used in abundance by Russia/USSR throughout the last two centuries. We have to acknowledge that’s hard to make peace when the other party uses fake pretences and arguments to start a conflict. Here are some examples...
20/24 In 2014 there was a first settlement on peace between Russia and Ukraine in the Minsk I agreement, it didn't last and soon progressed into Minsk II. While both parties pointed at eachother the OSCE concluded Russia was the culprit in most cases.
21/24 Ukraine and Russia held peacenogotiations in Turkey, in March ‘22. Russia demanded a ‘neutral’ Ukraine, it suggested to chose a new leader; proposing Yanukovich. De facto Russia aimed for a second Belarus. A puppetstate it could force into a Unionstatemodel in time.
22/24 Some negotiators returned back poisoned. That Russia had no respect for the Ukraine or its leaders was apparent. It also showed contempt for the Greek PM trying a rocketattack that landed close the Greek delegation.
23/24 We can conclude that Russia has broken almost every peace treaty the last 30 years. If we look at Russias behaviour we can clearly see that it only asserts to power. When shown weakness Russia will use fake promisses to lull its opponents to sleep, then striking once more.
24/24 The 'just make peace' movement lost any credibility when it comes to shaping conditions for peace. It's like asking a victim of consistent domestic abuse to just be nice to her partner and give it another try. It lacks agency to the perpetrators behaviour: Russia.
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