Thread by @MassDara

The U.S. supplemental has passed and aid is on the way to Ukrainian frontlines. But months of delay for ammo and manpower have come at a cost. Problems cannot easily be undone, especially in Donetsk. A brief thread on what Russian decisions say about their summer plans. 🧵

First, Russia’s efforts suggest their priority remains advancing to the borders of Donetsk, where they add reserve units, the VKS operates intensely, and where improved recon-strike (40-100km behind Ukrainian lines + SS-26 SRBM) is hitting high value assets / 2

The situation is now critical in Chasiv Yar and this thread from @Tatarigami_UA is very useful to describe why: /3

In the last week, Russia now has a salient near Ocheretyne, currently about 5KM x 5KM wide. Russian doctrine says that an operational breakthrough against prepared defenses is possible after fires preparation of 15-30km and a suitable reserve force is ready.

In the last ten days, Russian forces committed 3 critical brigade elements forward – the 74th, 35th, and 30th (from 41st CAA). These forces were used in final stages of the battle of Avdiivka and have been recovering for the last month. Map @Inkvisiit

These experienced brigade elements are supported by various DPR and reserve units. Concentrating them in the salient is indicative of the priority of this effort. Also, if Ukrainian forces can target them, they could degrade some of the most skilled brigades there.

The 74th just raised a flag at Berdychi, Gen Syrskyi said units withdrew from there in advance.

Thoughts from @inkvisiit on defensive challenges that could await Russian forces next, although these defensive positions are in various stages of readiness and Ukrainian units are understrength. @bradyafr also does great work on this.

Russian forces edge closer to Pokrovsk. If they achieve that objective and control the roads (or have fire control of them), the situation becomes very difficult for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, leaving only a few strongholds near Kramatorsk – Sloviansk.

While ammunition availability will begin to improve shortly, manpower is still an unresolved challenge to frontline units, especially against the weight of this Russian effort in Donetsk.

What of the talk of a large Russian offensive this summer? Russian actions and posture suggests Donetsk is the priority. Russian discussions of a “sanitary zone” of indeterminate depth near Kharkiv are also concerning; as are strikes; but i can't determine that its resourced.

What about a renewed offensive from Russia this summer/fall? To answer, it will be important to survey border areas (and major training grounds, and repair facilities) to see what sort of reserve pipeline is underway now - or not.

Russian mobilization probably deserves its own thread because its requirements are contingent on multiple moving parts. for now, i would say that there is not an imminent or critical need for mobilized manpower to hold Russian lines, as they faced in the summer of 2022.

It’s also important to zoom out of the frontline a bit to put this recent Donetsk activity in perspective. The Donetsk region is not stable for Ukrainian forces but there are other areas where Russian advances are slow or holding.

I recommend reading this thoughtful thread from @ralee85 for his reactions to the supplemental and the urgent manpower issues for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that can’t be pushed aside.

In sum, delays in manpower and ammunition replenishment have come with a cost on the battlefield. In this moment, Russian commanders are trying to achieve progress before their opportunities are reduced by more ammunition the hands of Ukrainian units. / end

And for a financial outlook, see the latest from my @CEIP_Politika colleague @amenka