Thread by @sfrantzman

The story of the US delaying munitions for Israel is getting a lot of coverage, the BBC call it the "biggest warning yet for Israel."

So here's my question. While countries are growing frustrated with the long war in Gaza, have there been any real repercussions for Hamas since Oct. 7 on the global stage?

What I mean is this. Hamas is hosted by two western allies, in Doha and Ankara. There were no repercussions for Hamas leaders in Doha after Oct. 7. While the US and western leaders expressed support for Israel, they didn't move to sanction those leaders more or put them on trial for crimes against humanity.

Hamas leaders openly celebrated in Doha on Oct. 7. They faced no repercussions from the US, and Doha is the major non-NATO ally. And since Oct. 7 the Hamas leaders have jetted around the region, hosted as if they were a state by Turkey, a NATO member. So Hamas has gotten the message after Oct. 7 that there are no repercussions for its attack.

You can argue that Hamas faced repercussions from Israel's offensive in Gaza. But outside of Israel and Gaza, the group faced no repercussions I can think of. It massacred hostages with citizenships from around the world and held them hostage...and no country sought to bring it to trial for war crimes, or to detain its leaders. In the opposite, Hamas has been given MORE support since Oct. 7. It has not been condemned by the UN or most countries.

This is what is jarring about the pause in munitions for Israel. If the goal of the international community was to stop the war, and not have wars like this, then Hamas perpetrators should all be charged and the group should stop getting the red carpet, but instead it is literally still hosted by western allies.

I think the message is kind of clear. There was a lot of lip service to condemning Hamas in the West after Oct. 7...but no one sought to arrest its leaders, the way they did in the Balkan wars for Mladic or others they charged with crimes.

How is what Hamas did on Oct. 7 different than Srebrenica? The group openly massacred 1,000 people and put out footage of it. It massacred children, women, elderly people, and took children, women and the elderly as hostages. It openly paraded the body of Shano Louk to crowds. But no one put out charges for the men in that video.

There's something strange about the impunity Hamas enjoys. It carried out a genocidal massacre openly and faces no repercussions on the global stage, no real condemnation from the int'l community...and in fact is still seen as a partner by many int'l NGOs...and is still hosted by western allies.

Even when you do get a condemnation for Hamas in the region, it comes in the "all lives matter" form of "we condemn all killing of civilians"...and when int'l orgs discuss Gaza they say "armed groups"...they never say Hamas. In the opposite, they often praise Hamas police for "law and order." What part of "law and order" is parading the body of a dead person in the streets for men to spit at?

I think one can conclude that the Western powers, whose allies host and back Hamas, do not really condemn Oct. 7 in a meaningful way. They never wanted it defeated or dismantled and in fact they have worked to prevent that from happening. They have some interests in Hamas, interests that go back many years and are probably only discussed quietly.

How might those interests be discussed? With terms like they used to discuss why they didn't mind Saddam Hussein. A useful authoritarian genocider for some countries, until he got too powerful and invaded Kuwait. They might say things like "of course the Oct. 7 attack was awful but Hamas is a legitimate political party also and we need to make sure we engage with them too, they will be part of any future unity government in Ramallah and any future two state solution."

They might say things quietly like "of course we condemn Oct. 7, but remember Hamas leadership didn't know about it and we need to engage with the moderates and we have an interest in talking to them, otherwise they will only talk to Iran." It's the same way Hezbollah gets out of any real sanctions and is portrayed as a "partner" in Lebanon.

Unfortunately when we look at the pause in munitions, it is a big message to Israel. There was no similar policy change regarding Hamas after Oct. 7 in the West...no attempt to get their leaders to leave the western allies that back them, no attempt to isolate Hamas, or to bolster the PA. And this is most glaring...the has been NO ATTEMPT to bolster the Palestinian Authority after Oct. 7. This tells you what you need to know. There is a powerful Hamas lobby, it's powerful and complex..and it has made it so Hamas is condemned in statements sometimes...but in general the goal is to bring Hamas to power in Ramallah.

There is a growing addiction to Hamas in the region and globally. And this is going to lead to more wars, just like it led to Oct. 7. Responsible leaders would not want Hamas to grow, but unfortunately the new world order that Iran is advancing with Russia and China and other powers...sees Hamas as one of the key pawns and Hamas' alliance with western allies means the West is blind to the advance of this pawn and how it is destroying the MIddle East.