Thread by @sfrantzman

One of the greatest misconceptions of the war, in my view, is that Hamas has taken heavy losses and is somehow on the ropes.

It is not. Hamas has returned to 90 percent of Gaza, mostly because Israel left every place it "cleared." The evidence for this is that Israel has gone repeatedly back into areas like Zaytun to fight Hamas again...it literally returns immediately after Israel leaves.

There is zero evidence that Hamas is under pressure. Hamas feels it is winning. Hamas may have lost thousands of its fighters, including senior commanders. But Hamas has ALWAYS been willing to take losses. It's entire history is full of it losing men, and having them detained and eliminated.

If Hamas was under pressure we would be seeing concessions. Israel claimed in November during the first hostage deal that pressure brings hostage released. Well...there is NO EVIDENCE that pressure was maintained and Hamas learned immediately that Israel was going to leave most of Gaza, all it had to do was wait.

How did Hamas know this? Probably the same way it knew on Oct 6 that Israel had been lured into believing Hamas is "deterred." Hamas passes messages to its leadership in Doha, and they talk to Doha and Doha is a major non-NATO ally and Doha and the US talk to Israel. So Hamas understood, either through channels or public details, that Israel was being asked to move to a "low intensity" conflict in December/January.

Who encouraged the US to pressure Israel to move to "low intensity" when Israel's own defense minister was saying that pressure would bring more hostage deals. Clearly Israel was asked to shift gears and probably told that if it did so then Hamas would make concessions. Israel shifted, Hamas didn't.

Then what happened? Israel withdrew from northern Gaza. Hamas rapidly returned, for instance 1,000 suspected terrorists went to Shifa hospital and were rounded up in a raid in March. But that raid also ended and Hamas returned again. We know that Israel was told by the US to basically do a de facto ceasefire for Ramadan in March. Probably Israel was told that if it did this then Hamas would also make concessions. But Hamas didn't make any concessions. Instead Israel got played again.

Then came April and by this time the US was moving to build the pier off of Gaza and the IDF withdrew from Khan Younis. Hamas returned to Khan Younis. Once again it seems Israel was told that if it held off on a Rafah op, then Hamas would make concessions in the hostage talks. Israel held off for a month. Hamas didn't make concessions. Israel got played again.

Each time Hamas was likely consulting its backers and handlers. For instance, its leadership went to Ankara, a NATO ally, in April. They were probably told "just wait a little more, pressure will build in the West and the war will end, you can keep the hostages and get the ceasefire and get the IDF to leave."

So Hamas held on. The campus protests began. Hamas rebuilt its positions and its forces. Hamas returned to most of Gaza and began coordinating attacks with PIJ, PFLP, DFLP and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades to target Netzarim. Hamas felt it was winning and in the driver's seat and dictating the tempo of the war. It had the initiative.

Hamas knew it didn't need to make any conessions in the hostage talks because its two hosts (western allies) were getting the US and the West to raise the pressure on Israel. Then comes late April and discussions begin about munitions deliveries. Hamas may have been informed about this before the leak to media on May 3-4.

After the story about the munitions pause appears, Hamas targets Kerem Shalom. It now feels it has Israel in checkmate. It can target IDF troops who were staging for an eventual Rafah op, it may have even planned to lure Israel in, or create chaos between Israel and the US.

Hamas also knows that Ankara has sought to cut off trade and Doha is calling for international intervention to stop the Rafah Op. Now Hamas also lies on May 6 about accepting a hostage deal, which it changes at the last minute, apparently with knowledge of the "mediators."

Empowered by its sense that Israel has been given a red line against an operation, Hamas feels it now has a de facto ceasefire in most of Gaza, and Israel as de facto withdrawn from most of Gaza except the Netzarim corridor. Hamas increases attacks on the corridor. Israel goes into Zaytun on the night of May 8-9.

There is a narrative also in Israeli media that "Hamas cannot be defeated" and "it was unrealistic to think the hostages will return"...but that "Israel is winning" because Hamas has lost an estimated 10-14,000 fighters. I think this number is likely exaggerated and even if it isn't, Hamas has recruited half this number in 7 months of war. It is replenishing its ranks.

Hamas is not weakened. There is no evidence that it is. It hasn't lost control of parts of Gaza and seen other polities rise in its place. It's true that it doesn't have the "infrastructure" it had before. But it can rebuild this. Labor costs are cheap in Gaza, that is how Hamas built the tunnels before.

I don't doubt that we will be fed stories about how "Israel is winning" and "take the win" and we even were fed stories about a "picture of victory" when tanks rolled into Rafah. This is all designed to lure Israel into another trap, just like before Oct. 7 Israel was told Hamas was "deterred." This conflict has been stage-managed by Hamas backers and Israel has often been played.

We've seen this before. In other rounds of fighting with Hamas, Israel "took the win" and Hamas got stronger each time, exponentially stronger. Israel Israel decides to claim it "kind of won" now...then Hamas will return easily to Gaza and rebuild and then take over the West Bank.

What's shocking is how the int'l community and NGOs don't mind Hamas running Gaza, despite it murdering a 1,000 people. Despite it parading dead bodies in Gaza to crowds. Despite its crimes against humanity. A lot of the international community is taken in by Hamas somehow, probably due to the connections it has via its backers.

Hamas is also capable of lying, via the backers, and claiming it has suffered high losses and letting Israel "take the win" while Hamas prepares the next step. Beware of stories about this, unless they can be verified. And by verified, I mean Hamas being thrown out of power.