Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Middle East security analyst, Phd, author of #TheOctober7War bylines @Jerusalem_Post @BreakingDefense adjunct fellow @FDD Exec Dir @MidEast_Center @GulfIsrael;

May 12, 2024, 9 tweets

It appears there is emerging concern within the IDF about the policy of going into neighborhoods like Jabalya and Zaytun again and again without a plan of who will run them after; essentially returning them to Hamas. In operations in Zaytun for instance, several soldiers have been killed in the last days.

For instance:

“We are now operating once again in Jabaliya. As long as there’s no diplomatic process to develop a governing body in the Strip that isn’t Hamas, we’ll have to launch campaigns again and again in other places to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure,” Halevi was quoted by Channel 13 as saying. “It will be a Sisyphean task.”

timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-said…

Example 2:
"Even after all these actions and raids, Hamas will remain there," the IDF said this morning, "to influence Hamas, a governing alternative to Hamas is needed. There are no magic solutions. The most important thing is to decide and indecision drags the current reality"

Example 3:
Senior military officials say that "as long as there is no governing alternative to Hamas, we will continue to return to the same places." Meanwhile, the rocket fire from the Strip is expanding Nahal registers successes and reveals headquarters in Zeyton

Bennett's critique is the most clear and he correctly notes that removing the IDF from Khan Younis basically enables Hamas to move from Rafah to Khan Younis again as the IDF moves into Rafah.

"I’ve no idea why our government is so slow and seemingly indecisive. Neither do understand why we pulled out division 98 that had been sealing the Hamas fighters trapped in Rafah. Sort of like removing the lid on a can in which they were trapped, allowing them to disperse all across the Gaza Strip."

"It’s necessary so that when we capture a certain city (e.g. Han Yunus) in a tough and costly battle, we know who we hand it over to and who runs it. This ensures that Hamas will not re-enter the moment we leave, thus causing us to have to fight 3-4 times to recapture the same place(!). We can decide to keep Israeli temporary admin, or local Palestinian, or other options. But we need to decide SOMETHING. Who fills the void. Otherwise by default it’s Hamas, the worst of all options. And that’s what’s happening right now."

The most clear explanation of the emerging problem can be found in this article "Wasting troops’ hard-fought gains, Israel is taking time it doesn’t have in Gaza" timesofisrael.com/wasting-troops…

There are voices who portray what is happening in Gaza as a thought out tactic...as if there is a larger strategy, for instance making it so the IDF can easily raid parts of Gaza the way it does Jenin. Some say the IDF looked at the concept of "clear, hold, build" and simply decided to "clear" because it doesn't want to hold or doesn't have the manpower. But the statements above make it clear that it's not that this is a wider strategy, this is actually the result of not having a strategy.

Also:
"Senior National Security Council official Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yoram Hamo resigned from his post, according to a Sunday Kan report. Hamo, who headed the Division for Strategic Defense Policy and was reportedly responsible for Israel's plan for Gaza after the war, reportedly resigned due to indecision by the political echelon on the subject."

jpost.com/breaking-news/…

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