Thread by @UlfLaessing

EU officials have been busy sealing anti-migration pacts with Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Lebanon as the boat season is about to start in Libya and Tunisia and European elections coming up. But pressure is building up in Agadez. Some observations from my trip:

1. The Agadez-Libya route has been busy since it officially reopened in December. This year, some 160k made it to Libya (113k) and Algeria (52k). Almost 65% were from Niger who tend to seek work in Libya. I remember living in Tripoli and always having Nigerien guards.

2. Still, there will be more pressure on the Mediterranean route. The second largest group are Nigerians. I met two at the bus station who had run out of money but wanted to make it to Italy. In Germany alone there are some 14,000 Nigerians which have no legal residency status.

3. Then there are people from Chad (seeking work in Libya), Sierra Leone and Sudan. When I was in Chad, some said some Sudanese refugees had been moving on to Niger. Frontex numbers show a jump in Sudanese arrivals in 2023. Its a very low base but a trend to watch

4. It will take months or longer to see arrivals by boat in Italy because migrants need to make money to fund the next step of their trip. The Agadez convoy goes to south Libya. There there they need to work to fund the Tripoli and then the boat trip. Some are for years en route

5. Last week there was no Agadez departure after the return convoy (many are Libyan drivers) came back late due to an attack by a pro-Bazoum militia outside the city. Picture from the empty departure point.

6. Algeria deported in 2024 some 10,000 migrants to Niger after 14000 or so last year. IOM is repatriating those who wish to go home. I met some women from Sierra Leone living in a rented house who had run out of money. Most wanted to go back but some still hope to go to Libya.

7. Niger’s decision to reopen the route is welcomed in Agadez as so many depend on moving migrants. Drivers, transporteurs, restaurateurs, logeurs.. The women from Sierre Leona rented a place for 60000 CFA/month. Young men sell sticks to migrants so not to fall off their pickups

8. And Niamey ? There is spat between Niger and Benin. Niger still hasn't reopened the Benin border fearing ECOWAS intervention (its also about punishment for the embargo). Now Benin does not want to export Niger's oil. China, which bought the first oil cargo, will mediate.

9. Benin suffers because Cotonue port lost business. Benin used to be the entry gate for Niger imports, which now go via Lome port and the Burkina land route despite the dangers (the army escorts trucks).

10. US ? I think they massively overplayed their hand with a visit which came across as pressure tactic. Niger also wants to benefit financially from the base like Djibouti. I think there is still a chance for some counter-terrorism role. Picture from a US-funded Agadez library

11. Italy, which has been with its right-wing PM at the EU forefront in making anti-migration deals with Libya and Tunisia, has restarted training for special forces. Some EU have increased development aid, others like Germany are still reluctant to resume much.

12. What else ? Russians flags can be seen everywhere in Niamey and also a bit in Agadez. There is a lot of billboards of the new AES (Mali, Burkina, Niger) alliance and even companies seeking to benefit. Still, life is difficult with power cuts and food prices.