EU officials have been busy sealing anti-migration pacts with Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Lebanon as the boat season is about to start in Libya and Tunisia and European elections coming up. But pressure is building up in Agadez. Some observations from my trip: 1. The Agadez-Libya route has been busy since it officially reopened in December. This year, some 160k made it to Libya (113k) and Algeria (52k). Almost 65% were from Niger who tend to seek work in Libya. I remember living in Tripoli and always having Nigerien guards.

Today, I went to the Chad-Sudan border - Darfur starts behind the trees. It was eerie to see a RSF checkpoint, the first houses, a telco mast and Sudanese crossing to shop. It looked peaceful but there's also a rather dark backstory showing the conflict's complexity.. 1. You can't see much on the mobile phone pictures but there is in the background a tent housing RSF fighters next to the first houses -- they check Sudanese crossing into to a Chadian village. The border is just a wadi separating two villages.

Arrived for the night at Farchana in eastern Chad, home to a huge refugee camp and UN/ NGO hub to bring aid to Sudanese fleeing war - arrivals have surged again since last week with fighting flaring up near El-Fasher, Darfur's last city so far largely untouched by the conflict 1. When the 2023 Sudan war between Hermedti's Rapid Forces Forces and Burhan's army reached the western Darfur region some thousands fled every day to Adre, a small Chadian town on the other side of the border. Recently, numbers dropped to some 200 a day -- still many but

Last week, flying to Vienna I had a strange but fascinating encounter. There were five very fit young men hand carrying each a huge bag – there were so heavy that two had to lift each bag step by step, holding up at Istanbul the terminal bus. Guess what was in there ? 1. Being very tired after an overnight flight, I didn’t really figure out what they were carrying until I approached them -- and was told they were hand-carrying a total of 250 kg gold bars to Dubai.

I am in Burkina Faso this week but plenty of news coming out of Niger tonight. A break with EU defense cooperations and a new military assistance with Russia. Mali 2.0 ? A few quick thoughts 1. Niger's new military government basically ended the EU police and military missions @EUCAPSahelNiger and EUMPM, which had provided training and equiment for Niger's police and army - part of a massive Western push in recent years to stabilise the Sahel country.

Sharing some observations from my trip to Chad, the only Sahel country (apart Mauretania) where you still see French flags in public – but for how long ? A thread 1. The government of transition President Deby remains allied to France which has several bases in the central African country. Losing Niger was a shock for Paris but an exit from Chad would be even bigger blow given the importance for its African military ops plus psychology.

Back in Niger last week as we are about to start a new project there, joining the Western policy focus to stabilize this key Sahel state. With the @UN_MINUSMA retreat from Mali, Niger will become even more important. A few thoughts. 1. You know when foreign aid is flowing when the local Toyota dealer has dozen of Landcruisers "dispo immediatement", such is NGO demand. Niamey is booming. Villas for expats are hard to get and hotels are full of Western soldiers and consultants. It feels a bit like Juba 2011.

German army posting tonight a series of tweets outlining the latest challenges in Mali for @UN_MINUSMA casting fresh doubts about the UN mission‘s future. A thread. 1. Mali is still not allowing troop rotations following the arrest of 49 Ivorians in July at Bamako airport over what authorities say was a lack of authorization to deploy.

This week, Germany was thrown for the first time in the public fireline of tensions between Mali and the U.N. mission MINUSMA. A taste of what lies ahead for Berlin in the coming months ? A thread. Germany usually has strong relations with Bamako having recognised Mali first. But this does not seem to count much more. With "enemy No 1" France leaving Germany becomes more visible being now the largest Western MINUSMA contributor as ties between Bamako and the mission worsen