Thread by @Nowooski

Dear fellow very online Democrats, the election is five months away and the world isn’t the same as it used to be.

Here are a few things to keep in mind to try and stay sane and have an accurate view of the race:

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1: - We are the party that benefits from low voter turnout now. Among people who’ve never voted, Trump is up >10%. Among people vote every election, Biden is winning by ~6%.

2: We are the party that benefits from money in politics now. Democrats have reliably outraised republicans since 2008 or so.

3: You read the news and see my posts on social media. That makes you a very strange person. The issues you care most about are not likely to be the ones the marginal voter is most concerned with. Don’t fall for the pundit’s fallacy and assume your interests are representative.

4: The most effective progressive senator of the last decade is Joe Manchin. Not because he took strident progressive positions, but because he won in a R+40 state and gave Biden a senate majority, allowing all kinds of transformative legislation to be passed and judges to be confirmed. Consider that lesson before you demand candidates take unpopular positions.

5: Don’t believe your own side’s propaganda polls. Lots of advocacy orgs put out polls whose goal isn’t to test public support in a scientific way, but rather to drive a narrative. These produce emotionally satisfying headlines like “most Americans support Medicare for All / a ceasefire / my favored gun control plan” that always fall apart when you test the details and counter arguments. Believing them just results in frustration and dissolution.

6: If you find an ad emotionally satisfying or persuasive, it’s almost certainly not resonating with undecided voters. This is just a rule of thumb to remember following politics is very strange and the tastes you and your friends share are not representative of swing voters.