Thread by @magi_jay

I will put this plainly, w/o hyperbole: If the U.S. leaves NATO, we will be looking down the barrell at a level of European warfare we haven't seen since WWII. Putin will invade more countries. Europe, for the 1st time in 80 years, will go it alone, w/o the U.S.

Look at a map. Consider a captured Ukraine, which is very possible if Trump wins. Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, & Poland have all said they are prepared for greater warfare. France, Germany, & Britain are preparing to defend them.

From this year:
-"Russia preparing for military confrontation with West, says Estonia"
-"Latvia prepares for Russian aggression amid concern war will spread beyond Ukraine"
-"We need to be ready for war with Putin, Romania’s top general says"

Then, this, today from Poland, after Trump made his comments about abandoning NATO:
"Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says."
reuters.com/world/europe/p…

What happens when the threat of the US military is removed? European war. The Baltic States & Eastern EU are most threatened. Meanwhile, France, Germany, & the UK will be tasked to defend them. Italy's Meloni is cold on Putin. Why? It's an 11-hour drive from Ukraine to Venice.

Meanwhile, Western EU is preparing to defend the East, as the East prepares to defend itself
-New joint defense agreements btwn France/Germany/ Poland
-UK puts its defense industry on "wartime footing"
-UK starts the most intense military exercises in Poland since the 1980s

I was raised by a military historian & part of my early ed was to avoid hyperbole. To do so, I said we're looking at "European Warfare." I didn't say WWIII. WWII was truly a *world* war. So let's take a moment to look at a broader map of EU, w/in the world. What do you see?

I see Iran, allied w/ Russia. I see Turkey, an opportunistic ally to both NATO & RU. An ally who might turn-coat if the threat of US force is eliminated. I see Syria, allied w/ Russia. I see Iraq, always in flux. I also see North Africa. I remember: Putin is fighting for influence in Africa.

So I look at the map. I ask myself, are these North African countries areas where Putin is specifically seeking influence? I find:
"Russia, Algeria 'tighten' strategic ties"
"Russia’s foreign minister tours North Africa as anger toward the West swells across the region"

I find, also, that North African states that have been traditionally "Western" allies, like Tunisia, are turning more towards Russia. I also find this: -Increased Russian military activity in Tunisia & Libya -Strengthened bilateral relations between Morocco & the Kremlin.

Russia may even be intending to build a naval base in Libya. Please look at a map & consider what a "naval base" in Libya means in the context of European warfare.

If we take into account China & Taiwan, plus the Middle East, where Putin has power in Iran & Syria, plus North Africa, where Putin is forming alliances & also increasing a military presence, what do we have? World War III. This is not hyperbole. It's what Europe is preparing for

Without the US, can the UK, France, Germany, & Poland defend all of EU against Russia? Maybe. But can they also defend against attacks from North Africa? Can they defend Taiwan while doing so? What about the ME? Russia has been building alliances, incl. w/ Hamas, throughout

Meanwhile, Russia is also sowing domestic discord, weakening all of Europe, just like it does w/ the U.S., from within. Russia's targets are always domestic discord. They pick at Western fissures like picking at a scab.

This is what could happen if Trump is elected & decides to leave NATO. The International Post-WWII Era will be over. No more deterrence from the US entails aggression everywhere. From a man--Putin--who is planning to aggress. Meanwhile, the press treats this as a "nothing story."

From today, in @politico "NATO plans, Trump laughs." NATO vs Trump. It makes Trump look so strong. When really, what we're talking about, is a US abdication of its anti-war responsibilities, while the rest of the world *scrambles* to adjust to this possible New World Order.

The defense strategy--NATO--that prevents broader warfare is in danger if Trump is reelected. The American press alternately ignores this issue, obfuscates, or presents it as a power-move from Trump. Replace "Nato" with "All of Europe" in this headline.

-Given Putin's war in Ukraine
-Given Putin's influence campaigns across continents
-Given Putin's military presence in the ME & NA.
-Given Trump's stance on NATO & other alliances (Taiwan)
-We, as a world, will be closer to WWIII than we have ever been since the end of WWII.

That's a story worth taking very seriously.

I didn't even mention that Trump loves dictators & tried to use "defense" to extort the Ukrainian President, who is now reliant on US defense to defend his country. Best case scenario under Trump is that the U.S. takes the side of no one. Worst case is. . . .