Having recently spent a few weeks in Poland and Estonia, I formed the impression that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed neighbouring countries in ways that US and western governments completely fail to grasp. Two years of war have radically reshaped expectations.1/
From the Estonian colleague who calmly told me there will be a Russia-Nato war in the next few years in which Estonia will be partially or completely destroyed, to the Polish mother who no -longer wants her son to pursue a military career--people are drawing conclusions. 2/
They are concluding that Nato is feckless and cannot or will not deter Russia. They are questioning whether their own institutions, and allies, are up to the challenges confronting them. And they are factoring likelihood of war into their own life plans in ways that shocked me.3/
I mention this because the US and Nato seem to assume that as long as the invasion of Ukraine is contained to Ukraine, and Russia is not actively invading other regional countries, whatever happens in Ukraine (such as the destruction of a children's hospital) stays in Ukraine. 4/
Washington, Brussels, and Berlin have all the time in the world to manage the invasion. If it is eventually resolved to their satisfaction, what happened in the interim--the death and destruction, the blighted lives and hopes--won't matter to much to anyone except Ukraine. 4/
They are sadly mistaken. Yes, Ukraine and its people are bearing the brunt of Russia's invasion of Europe. But even if the invasion should end tomorrow, the reputational damage to Nato (and I daresay the EU) has been huge. They have been exposed as inept and compromised. 5/
Do Biden, Scholz, et al. think that allowing Russia to ravage Ukraine with impunity will work out well for the Euro-Atlantic institutions that undergird their own power and prestige? People in CEE countries see their supposed allies allowing neighbour Ukraine to be annihilated.6/
People in CEE countries are not fools or passive victims. They see what is being allowed to happen to their neighbour and update their own views accordingly. This is one reason (among many) why the delay in achieving Ukrainian victory is so damaging to the collective West. 7/
It's already too late for honour or conscience, but self-interest alone should lead us in the West to help Ukraine expel Russia from its territory sooner rather than later. The credibility of our alliances is ebbing away. Ukraine must win soon to salvage what's left. of it. 8/8
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