Associate professor of criminology and European studies, U. Toronto. Public safety in Eurasia. @CrimSL_TO; @CERESMunk; @USITproject; https://t.co/PKrKJPp8RV.
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Mar 14 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
I haven't written on the Khalil case because I'm not an expert on US immigration law. However, having researched and taught on related subjects, there are a few points that I may be able to clarify. First, removing a foreginer from the US is not punishment under criminal law. 1/
Citizenship is fundamental to the modern state system. International law has developed so as to try to ensure that everyone is a citizen of some country (e.g., by limiting statelessness) and to some degree standadize how citizenship is assigned. 2/
Feb 20 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Since Trump, Putin, and their followers like to point out that the US held elections in the Civil War and demand Ukraine do the same, it's worth noting that this episode from US history is hardly the pristine example of constitutional rectitude they claim. A thread. 1/
Did Lincoln oversee elections in 1862 (midterms--for Congress only) and 1864 (for president and Congress)? Yes, but only in states not in rebellion. As Lincoln and his party had little presence in those states before the CW, this allowed them to score wins on their home turf. 2/
Dec 2, 2024 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
"If Russia defeats Ukraine, the game is over" in the whole region, an Armenian colleague recently told me. How are the dramatic events now unfolding in Georgia, and the quieter but no less significant transformation in neighbouring Armenia, related to Ukraine's fate? A thread. 1/
Others have noted parallels between Georgians' struggle to prevent their pro-Russian rulers from stealing an election with Ukraine's Euromaidan. In both, protests crystalized around alarm that the athorities were preparing to crush democracy on behalf of alliance with Russia. 2/
Sep 18, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
In an enjoyable although too-brief visit to Ukraine, in Kyiv and Chernivtsi, I came away impressed as always by Ukrainians' determination and fortitude but also struck by the harmful consequences of the west's continuing accommodation of Russia. 1/
People have adapted to the difficult realities of the war. Portable electricity generators are ubiquitous in shops and restaurants. Kyiv residents consult an app showing when their district will have rolling blackouts necessitated by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. 2/
Jul 10, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Having recently spent a few weeks in Poland and Estonia, I formed the impression that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed neighbouring countries in ways that US and western governments completely fail to grasp. Two years of war have radically reshaped expectations.1/
From the Estonian colleague who calmly told me there will be a Russia-Nato war in the next few years in which Estonia will be partially or completely destroyed, to the Polish mother who no -longer wants her son to pursue a military career--people are drawing conclusions. 2/
Apr 7, 2024 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
While Biden is not directly responsible for Johnson's delaying tactics on Ukraine aid, he is indirectly responsible for creating the conditions that Johnson (and behind him Trump) are exploiting. Biden's own policies of limiting aid and drawing out the war have brought us here.1/
Since February 2022, advised by Jake Sullivan, Biden has kept Ukraine afloat while taking steps that prevented its decisive victory. Whether this reflects "escalation management" or the wish to reintegrate Russia, or both, is immaterial; he has delayed Ukrainian victory. 2/
Jan 18, 2024 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
A thread: The distressing Morozov case raises questions about Russian intelligence targeting of professional academics and related professionals in western countries. 1/
I know Morozov only very minimally and by correspondence and will not comment on his possible guilt or innocence. He should have his day in court and will have it. Estonia is a rule-of-law state with credible courts and judges, and I trust that the case will be handled fairly. 2/
Oct 30, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
On the Makhachkala airport pogrom: I have traveled in the Caucasus, although not Dagestan. Both the northern (Russian) and southern (independent) regions feature ancient Jewish communities that have generally lived in peace with their neighbours. This episode shocked me.1/
Georgia's Jewish community has faced almost no antisemitism from the majority. Jews in Muslim Azerbaijan are well integrated, belying the idea that Muslims and Jews are fated to enmity. Jewish communities in the North Caucasus are small but also have mainly fared well. 2/
Aug 24, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Katz is a perceptive observer, but I differ with his analysis that the killing of Prigozhin signals the Russian state's degeneration into a mafia. Rather it shows how the regime interprets and thus punishes different categories of its enemies. 1/
Comparing Prigozhin with, say, Navalny, an obvious difference is that the latter was subjected to a judicial proceeding and punishment, no matter how farcical. Navalny was punished (formally) like any other criminal because the regime treats (or depicts) him as a legal subject.2/
Jul 12, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I recently had a revealing conversation with two diplomats from Western European Nato countries who had attended the Vilnius summit that pointed to a gap in perceptions between the inner circle of Nato policymakers and outside observers regarding the success of the summit. 1/
The two diplomats pointed to recent achievements such as Sweden's now-clear path to Nato accession, the Nato Ukraine Council, new weapons shipments to Ukraine, and rising defence spending in Europe as evidence that Nato had been reinvigorated and this summit was a success. 2/
May 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Maria @PopovaProf makes a limited but important point regarding the Cuban Missile Crisis (CMC) in relation to the current invasion of Ukraine. The proximate cause of the CMC was specifically the USSR placing nuclear missiles in Cuba, not Cuba's pro-Soviet alignment. 1/
Castro's revolution and friendship with the USSR was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the CMC: they enabled the US's main adversary to place missiles in Cuba. But the nuclear confrontation was triggered specifically by the missiles, not by US hostility to Castro. 2/
May 23, 2023 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
Recent events are focusing attention on Russia's Belgorod oblast, a region with a strong connection to Ukraine that I visited for doctoral dissertation research in 2005 and 2006. A few thoughts on Belgorod and another Russian region with links to Ukraine, Krasnodarskii Krai. 1/
Belgorod has an interesting past on the margins between the Muscovite state and historically Ukrainian regions. Its population has a mixed Russian and Ukrainian background. When I visited, I met a few people from rural backgrounds who spoke a Ukrainian dialect. 2/
Mar 23, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a necolonial war: two examples. 1) Russia's systematic looting of Ukraine's artistic heritage in the regions it occupies is both an act of plunder worthy of King Leopold and a malignant attempt to erase Ukraine's cultural heritage and identity. 1/
2) Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children and their transfer to Russian institutions and individuals both violates the laws of war and conventions against human trafficking, and seeks to annihilate Ukraine as a distinct nation. 2/
The ever insightful and lucid @ruth_deyermond (and elsewhere Fiona Hill and @PowerVertical) nail it: there is no going back to the pre-2/24 world. By invading Ukraine, Russia intends to overturn the post-Cold War order in Europe and replace it with one more to its liking. 1/
The principal victims of this project are obviously Ukrainians, whom Russia wishes to annihilate as as a community. But that's only the beginning of Putin's ambitions, which also include the subordination of all of Eastern Europe and co-governance of all of Europe. 2/
Dec 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is of course the key point. I would just add that both Macron and Scholz, who frequently talk about the need for negotiations to reintegrate Russia into Europe, seem to have forgotten a basic principle of negotiation: you don't negotiate with yourself. 1/
Years ago in Tbilisi, a Georgian friend showed me how to haggle over a rug. Rule 1: never let the merchant see you are eager to buy, because you have nothing to gain from seeming desperate for a deal. Yet Macron and Scholz constantly telegraph that they very badly want one. 2/
Nov 27, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not an extension of World War II. It is much more closely related to the current Russian elite's desire to turn back the clock to the USSR, including the whitewashing of Stalin, exemplified in proposals to rename Volgograd in his honour. 1/n
Others are more qualified to debate UPA, Bandera, and other aspects of Ukraine's World War II history. But it is clear the Putin regime is increasingly brazen in its attempts to rehabilitate the tyrant and mass-murderer Stalin, who also set the USSR on anti-Semitic course. 2/
Oct 27, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Those calling for negotiations between Biden and Putin usually expect Russia to retain control of much of Ukraine, presumably assuming a stable territorial division is possible. Apart from its immorality, this premise is fatally flawed, because the invasion is not about land. 1/
There is no quantum of Ukrainian land that would satisfy Putin because, as numerous statements by him and other Russian officials indicate, he objects to the Ukraine's existence as an effectively independent state, i.e., he objects to Ukraine as constituted, not to its borders.2/
Oct 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
People on the left who hesitate to support Ukraine because it is allied with the West and the United States need to understand a key fact about Putin's Russia: it is a right-wing dictatorship that seeks to implant similar right-wing dictatorships in the areas that it conquers. 1/
In political terms, Russia is a regime dominated by top figures in the security sector and a partially overlapping economic elite of Putin cronies who exert oligopolistic control over the heights of the economy. 2/
Oct 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
In the explosion on the Kerch Bridge, several cars and trucks burst into flames and their occupants were presumably killed. You'd have to be a monster to take pleasure in these deaths, but they do not constitute a war crime or create any other kind of culpability by Ukraine. 1/
It's worth noting that (1) the occupation of Crimea is illegal under international law and the bridge was built against Ukraine's wishes and to promote that occupation (2) it's undeniably being used to transport military personnel and equipment. 2/
Oct 2, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
A Ukrainian friend with no connection to politics sent me this very concise and I think lucid statement of Ukraine's hopes for the defeat of the Russian invasion: "All we want is to be a developed European country that would contribute to the development of the world... 1/
I know for sure that after the war, educational institutions, industry and everything necessary for people to live normally will be destroyed, our seas and land will be mined, hundreds of thousands of soldiers will be morally broken and thousands will be wounded. 2/
Sep 8, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
This fallacious argument is widespread, particularly in the Global South, and thus requires a response, esp. as Ukraine contemplates military deoccupation of Crimea. As a strictly legal matter, the right of self-determination refers primarily to peoples under colonial rule. 1/
There is no serious argument that Ukraine colonized Crimea, whose people before Russian occupation in 2014 enjoyed the same democratic rights as all Ukrainian citizens as well as a special autonomous statute, or that Ukraine engaged in genocide against the people of Crimea. 2/
