🧵Monthly economic review through the June data. First, about 6.3 million more were working in June than pre-pandemic. We regained peak employment in June 2022 and have set records monthly since. We added 206,000 jobs in June. 1/
No matter how you slice it, job creation has been much faster under Biden than Trump: 2/
That said, the pace of job creation is slowing. The 3-month average was 177,000. After prior months' adjustments, we added just 95,000 in June. The slowing rate helps ease inflation and gives the Fed more room to cut interest rates. 3/
The unemployment rate was 4.1% in June, historically low. Biden has the lowest unemployment rate on average of any president. 4/
However, the unemployment rate has climbed from 3.5% a year ago, with about 800,000 more unemployed. The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator, explained in the slide. If we hit the trigger, we've likely passed an economic peak and are in a mild recession. 5/
Hourly wages have consistently outgrown inflation if the starting point is pre-pandemic (Feb '20).
+25% Hourly wages
+21% CPI All
+19% CPI Core (ex food & energy)
This means real wages (purchasing power) above pre-pandemic throughout the Biden era. 6/
We reached another milestone, which is hourly wages have now outgrown inflation comparing June 2024 to January 2021 when Biden inaugurated. 7/
+19.4% Hourly Wages
+19.2% CPI Inflation
+17.7% CPI Core
The real (infl-adj) hourly wage or purchasing power in $ per hour:
1. Under Biden 2021-2024, always higher than 2019 pre-pandemic.
2. In June '24, higher vs. Biden start.
3. Highest average of any president at $29.74. 8/
Which groups had the fastest real (infl-adj) wage gains vs. pre-pandemic?
✅Lower income
✅Minorities
✅Young people 9/
CBO explained how households at all income levels had more purchasing power in 2023 than 2019 pre-pandemic, an incredibly important conclusion as it indicates the prevailing media narrative about inflation punishing the middle class is wrong. 10/
cbo.gov/publication/60…
The number and % without health insurance reached record lows under Biden. ACA/Obamacare has cut the number of uninsured by roughly half. Over 21 million also get their insurance through the exchanges. 11/
To summarize the labor market, Biden has the lowest unemployment rate and highest real wage of any president on average back to 1964. It's perhaps the best economy since the 1960's.
But it's probably slowing down, good news for the Fed but not for the rising unemployed. 12/
NBER uses 6 key measures to call an economic peak or start of recession. As of June, all 6 showing growth (not recession) vs. May 2023. So keep these in mind along with the Sahm indicator. 13/
@SteveRattner has been doing great work explaining key stats impacting the economy and sentiment.
Violent crime rate is at its lowest level in 15 years and well below the recent Trump 2020 peak. 14/
A big part of the economic recovery and boom has been immigration. Further, since immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than native born, they're helping keep crime rates down along with making us richer. 15/
How much richer? CBO estimates that robust immigration over the next decade is worth about $7 trillion or $50,000 per household in additional GDP (wealth and income). This was a great explanation on MSNBC. So invite your new neighbors to dinner! 16/
If we can get the media focused on policy comparisons, Biden's are far more popular and economically effective! 17/
For example, do you want your after-tax income reduced significantly by Trump's tariffs? Neither do I. Don't vote for this garbage. 18/
NYT has decided to grace us with a head-to-head comparison of the candidates on the issues. This one should matter a lot. 19/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Lastly, here's an easy slide to share with some of Biden's greatest economic hits. 20/
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