🧵Monthly economic update, through the February 2025 results, Trump's first month. First, we added 151,000 jobs in Feb and are now nearly 7 million jobs above the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022. We've set records for number with jobs monthly thereafter. 1/ Job creation (Establishment Survey) has averaged about 200,000 over the past 3 months, very solid historically. 2/

🧵Where does the national debt come from?
1. Recessions, which cause revenue to fall and automatic stabilizer spending (like unemployment insurance) to rise w/o legislation.
2. Tax cuts
3. Wars
4. Recessions, via stimulus legislation
5. Interest 1/
cbo.gov/sites/default/… Recessions and the responses (automatic and legislative) are the primary driver. 10 of the last 11 started under Republicans. Every Republican president since Benjamin Harrison, who served from 1889 to 1893, had a recession start on their watch. 2/

🧵Monthly economic review, through the Jan '25 data, Biden's last month. First, we added a decent 143,000 jobs in January. We're up about 6.7 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022, and 16.1 million vs. Biden start. 1/
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS The monthly job creation rate had been fading, but surged in the past 3 months to a robust 237,000 average. This was after benchmark revisions, done routinely each year. 2/

🧵The MSM created 4 fake crises (Inflation, Immigration, Housing, and Crime), which helped Trump get elected while hiding record prosperity. Here are slides explaining the counter-arguments to such misinformation, plus a few charts and links included for more details. 1/ Facts regarding the false narratives on housing and crime. 2/

🧵President Biden's economic legacy, in charts. First, the unemployment rate at 4.1% on average is the lowest (best) among the last 14 presidents, for FRED data back to 1948. 1/ The real (infl-adj) hourly wages for production & non-supervisory workers (the bottom 80% of the private sector) averaged higher under Biden than the last 11 presidents. In other words, workers had more purchasing power under Biden than other presidents, despite inflation. 2/

🧵Monthly economic update, through November:
First, job creation was +227,000 jobs, or +283,000 after upward adjustments to Sept & Oct. We're now +16.4 million jobs from when Biden started and +7.0 million vs. pre-pandemic peak regained in June 2022. 1/ 🏆Biden is the only president with positive job creation every month in office.

No matter how you slice and adjust it, job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump:

Biden July 2022-present: +239,000 / month
Trump pre-pandemic: +180,000 / month 2/

🧵How Democrats should talk about the economy, in plain language:

1. Biden has the lowest unemployment rate on average among the last 11 presidents.

2. Workers have the highest real hourly wages (purchasing power) on average under Biden, despite inflation. 1/ If you want job creation, elect a Democrat president. Amazingly, 98% of job creation since 1989 was under Democratic presidents, 50 million to 1 million.

If you pretend the pandemic didn't happen and charge Bush 43 for the 2009 jobs losses, you get 46 to 6. 2/

🧵In debating the economy, Democrats get caught arguing in the box Republican and media set.

First, what matters is purchasing power (income relative to prices), not inflation. Purchasing power has been above 2019 throughout the Biden era. 1/

https://x.com/David_Charts/status/1857895171666465040

"Wages have outgrown inflation so you're better off" should have been the party line from the start. Too often, Democrats apologized for the price level, or talked about how the inflation rate was slowing. 2/

@RadioFreeTom Biden's first term was the most successful economically since the late 1960's. Wages, net worth, stocks, GDP and housing far outgrew inflation. The 3.6% unemployment rates in 2022 & 2023 were better than 2019 at 3.7%. Biden's job creation much faster no matter how it's sliced. @RadioFreeTom Source data for the graph.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…

🧵Monthly economic update, through the September data. We added a robust 254,000 jobs in Sept. We are now 6.8 million jobs above pre-pandemic peak, regained in June 2022. 1/ Job creation much faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice and adjust it. Obama's 2nd term also had faster job creation than Trump pre-pandemic. 2/

🧵Immigration thread with talking points, supporting sources & graphics.
❌There is no border crisis.
⬆️Immigrants are boosting the economy to the tune of $65,000 per U.S. household over a decade.
❌There is no immigrant crime wave.
⚖️There is a court backlog to solve. 1/ CBO: Immigrants forecast to add nearly $65,000 per household to income and wealth over next decade, or $9 trillion in GDP. Why? Immigrant spending is our income. They also help reduce deficits, with $1 trillion more revenue. 2/
cbo.gov/publication/60…

🧵If the economy is your issue, then who has performed better, Trump or Biden? Let's exclude the pandemic years (2020-2021) from the analysis, which helps boost Trump's results vs. Biden.

Unemployment rate avg:
4.0% 2017-2019 Trump
3.7% 2022-2024 Biden ☑️ 1/ Monthly job creation, just averaging the numbers shown in the graph:

177,000/mo 2017-2019 Trump
271,000/mo 2022-2024 Biden ☑️ 2/

🧵Monthly economic update for the August data. First, a record 158.8 million were working, up 6.5 million from the pre-pandemic peak, regained in June 2022. We added 142,000 jobs in August. 1/ Job creation is faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you adjust it. July '22 to present averages 247,000 jobs/month, faster than the 180,000 pre-pandemic for Trump. Adjusted for the preliminary benchmark, the 247k would be 216k. 2/

🧵A few recent slides comparing Democrats and Republicans on the economy. First, Biden has the lowest average unemployment rate of any president from LBJ to present. 1/ Since WW2, the unemployment rate has increased under every Republican president except Reagan measured start to end of term, and fallen under every Democrat but Carter, who had no net change. 2/

🧵To what extent has food industry "price gouging" happened? I'll explain & graph as we go, but here's the tl;dr: Companies that increased their gross margin rate on average 2020-2023 vs. 2019 could be considered gougers; sorted by $ impact on consumers. 1/ First, here's how the math works for each company; JNJ example shown. Sales and cost of goods sold (COGS) data from annual reports, the rest is math. Gross margin reflects pricing most directly, as opposed to net income after many other expenses are considered. 2/

🧵Monthly economic update for the July data. First, a record 158.7 million were working, up 6.4 million from the pre-pandemic peak, regained in June 2022. We added 114,000 jobs in July. 1/ Job creation under Biden has been faster than Trump, no matter how you slice it. Since we regained the pre-pandemic peak jobs level in June 2022, job creation has averaged 255,000/month under Biden, vs. 180,000/month pre-pandemic under Trump. 2/

🧵A few slides comparing Biden vs. Trump on the economy. First, Biden has the highest real hourly wages on avg of any president at $29.74/hr vs. $28.82/hr for Trump. Yes, workers have more purchasing power under Biden than Trump, despite inflation. Real=Infl-Adj. 1/ Biden also has the lowest unemployment rate on average of any recent president, at 4.11% vs. 5.01% for Trump. 2/

🧵Monthly economic review through the June data. First, about 6.3 million more were working in June than pre-pandemic. We regained peak employment in June 2022 and have set records monthly since. We added 206,000 jobs in June. 1/ No matter how you slice it, job creation has been much faster under Biden than Trump: 2/

🧵Let's go through a few of the ways Trump's economic agenda would damage the U.S. economy.

First, tariffs raise prices Americans pay. That is the point, to deter imports.

CBO estimated Trump's tariffs cost families about $1,300/year. But this next round would be bigger. 1/ Trump is proposing a 10% tariff across the board. We imported about $3 trillion in goods in 2023. So that's $300 billion, divided by ~130 million households = $2,300 per household. We can't just make that stuff overnight here, so people will be paying that indefinitely. 2/

🧵CNN released a transcript of the debate. Some observations. First, it's informative to put it in Word and highlight Trump's lies, which are nearly continuous. Here's an example on tariffs, a key plank of Trump's platform. 1/
cnn.com/2024/06/27/pol…
Trump did something Biden should learn from: On the economic question at the start, Biden struggled with a coherent message, while Trump said right away he presided over the best economy ever and spent what he had to. Biden lost the initiative immediately on the subject. 2/

🧵Monthly economic briefing, through May data. First, we're up 6.2 million jobs vs. pre-pandemic peak, which was regained June 2022. A record 158.5 million jobs were reported in May. A robust 272,000 net new jobs were added as the labor market boom continued. 1/ Job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice it. Job creation has averaged 390,000/month since Biden inauguration, and 269,000/month since the pre-pandemic peak jobs level was regained in June 2022. 2/