🧵Monthly economic review through the June data. First, about 6.3 million more were working in June than pre-pandemic. We regained peak employment in June 2022 and have set records monthly since. We added 206,000 jobs in June. 1/ No matter how you slice it, job creation has been much faster under Biden than Trump: 2/

🧵Let's go through a few of the ways Trump's economic agenda would damage the U.S. economy.

First, tariffs raise prices Americans pay. That is the point, to deter imports.

CBO estimated Trump's tariffs cost families about $1,300/year. But this next round would be bigger. 1/ Trump is proposing a 10% tariff across the board. We imported about $3 trillion in goods in 2023. So that's $300 billion, divided by ~130 million households = $2,300 per household. We can't just make that stuff overnight here, so people will be paying that indefinitely. 2/

🧵CNN released a transcript of the debate. Some observations. First, it's informative to put it in Word and highlight Trump's lies, which are nearly continuous. Here's an example on tariffs, a key plank of Trump's platform. 1/
cnn.com/2024/06/27/pol…
Trump did something Biden should learn from: On the economic question at the start, Biden struggled with a coherent message, while Trump said right away he presided over the best economy ever and spent what he had to. Biden lost the initiative immediately on the subject. 2/

🧵Monthly economic briefing, through May data. First, we're up 6.2 million jobs vs. pre-pandemic peak, which was regained June 2022. A record 158.5 million jobs were reported in May. A robust 272,000 net new jobs were added as the labor market boom continued. 1/ Job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice it. Job creation has averaged 390,000/month since Biden inauguration, and 269,000/month since the pre-pandemic peak jobs level was regained in June 2022. 2/

🧵So far, consumer sentiment under Biden has been about 27% below what historical economic conditions would predict on average; it was 0% different for Trump.

The Apr '24 sentiment score was 77, when conditions merited a 93, about a -16% difference.

I'll explain method. 1/ We need an equation relating historical economic conditions pre-pandemic to U of M sentiment. We can use the misery index (inflation + unempl) for conditions. I'm using 100 - Misery Index so both variables are positive. 2/

🧵Here are 12 economic talking points for President Biden and Democrats, with charts in the thread on each.

Repeat them so much you memorize them and share them often with our media and political friends! #1: We're 6 million jobs above the pre-pandemic peak.

🧵Monthly economic review for March data. First, record 158 million with jobs, setting new records monthly since June 2022, when pre-pandemic peak regained. Biden has fastest monthly job creation of any president in # terms, 400k from start and 275k from July 2022. 1/ The unemployment rate was a very low 3.8% in March, the 26th straight month below 4%, a more than 50-year record per CEA. The rate has averaged 4.18% under Biden, essentially tying him for first place with LBJ for lowest of any president 1964-present. 2/

🧵A collection of articles explaining how the economy does much better under Democratic presidents.

1. It's all the key measures.
2. It isn't close.
3. Conclusion same regardless of who controls Congress.

NYT 1/
nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opi… The Economist 2/
economist.com/united-states/…

🧵The Economist did a cover article on how great the U.S. economy is. First, real (infl-adj) GDP +8% vs. 2019, making "America...the only big economy that is back to its pre-pandemic growth trend." 1/
economist.com/briefing/2024/…
This strong growth happened with inflation falling, which economic theory says is unusual.

Why? Cushions" from the big deficits in 2020-2021 (e.g., excess savings still getting spent) and consumers & corporations who locked-in lower interest rates before hikes. 2/

🧵State of the Union economic briefing; the key facts you need about the economy. First, monthly job creation over 50% faster in 2023 than 2019, the most comparable pre-pandemic year. 1/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
Unemployment rate averaged 3.6% in 2022 and 2023, both lower than pre-pandemic 2019. You have to go back to 1969 for a 3.5% year. 2/ fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…

🧵Biden vs. Trump on the economy. The relevant frame is 2023 vs. 2019 pre-pandemic, as 2020-2021 distorted (mostly in Biden's favor).

First, monthly average job creation is the most important measure of how the economy is doing. It was about 50% faster in 2023 than 2019. 1/ The unemployment rate averaged 3.6% in 2022 and 2023, vs. Trump's best 3.7% in 2019. You have to go back to 1969 for a year with 3.5% unemployment. Black unemployment was the lowest ever in 2023. 2/

🧵Monthly economic review, for the December data and full-year 2023. First, we added a solid 216,000 jobs in December. We're about 5 million jobs up from the pre-pandemic peak, which we regained in June '22. 1/ Job creation has averaged 408,000 since Biden inaugurated, and 268,000 since June '22, when pre-pandemic peak regained. Both are presidential records in # terms and faster than Trump pre-pandemic 2017-2019, as was Obama's 2nd term. 2/

🧵Greatest hits collection of slides from the Biden Admin and experts explaining the specific impacts of his economic agenda & laws.

First, the $1,400 checks in the Rescue Act for parents and some dependents meant up to $6,000 for a family of four. 1/
home.treasury.gov/news/featured-…
The Rescue Act greatly expanded the Child Tax Credit, putting money in pockets fast and drastically reducing child poverty:

+$1,600 per child under age 6
+$1,000 per child 7-17 2/

🧵WaPo compared Biden to Trump on 12 economic charts. Finally! Let's hope they update it monthly. Let's go through it and give WaPo some assistance.

First, WaPo got the job creation story right: Faster under Biden regardless of time period. 1/
wapo.st/3GWOMXS
WaPo got this mostly right, with Biden's 3.4% best below Trump's best 3.5%. Lowest African-American unemployment ever under Biden.

WaPo can benefit from historical perspective; rate averaged 3.6% in 2022-2023; you must go back to 1969 for 3.5%. 2/

🧵Monthly economic review through the November data. First, we're +14.1 million jobs since inauguration, +4.7 million vs. June 2022 when pre-pandemic peak regained. Job creation was +199k for Nov and has averaged a solid 200k/mo since June 2023. 1/ Biden's job creation averaging 415k/month since inauguration or 275k/month since June '22 when pre-pandemic peak regained. These are both record rates of job creation.

Biden (either method) and Obama 2nd term both had faster job creation than Trump pre-pandemic. 2/

🧵A collection of slides placing Biden's outstanding economic performance in context vs. other presidents.

First, Biden has the fastest job creation of any modern president, even if start point is June '22, when the pre-pandemic peak jobs level was regained. 1/ On average, Biden has the highest hourly real wage $29.15 and 2nd lowest unemployment rate 4.25% of any president LBJ to present.

*Real=inflation-adjusted (Sept 2023 $). Wages are for production & non-supvervisory, about 80% of private sector workers. 2/

🧵Biden & the 95th percentile economy.

A great thing about the Biden economy is how objectively awesome it is; you can just look at the measures in historical context and do the math.

The June unemployment rate of 3.57% was below 93% of monthly readings 1948-present. 1/ Real* hourly wages for production & non-supv workers hit record high annual average in 2021. It’s a key inflation measure, representing purchasing power.

$28.72 in May 2023 was 97th percentile (24th best of 713 readings since 1964).

*Real = Inflation-adj (2023 $) 2/

🧵So where does the economy stand now in historical context? First, we have a record job creation rate under Biden, even if you only count from June 2022, when we regained the pre-pandemic peak. We have the most working ever, setting records monthly since then. 1/ Going back to President Truman, Biden has the fastest job creation rate in both # and % terms, measured as annual average. Even if we use June 2022 as the starting point, Biden has the fastest # creation of all, and faster % creation than any Republican. 2/

🧵Why are people upset with the best economy in generations? Media? Democrats unable to market? Not about economy?

Let's look at the history, using the gap between consumer sentiment and misery index (infl+unemploy), each scored as a percentile (best = 100%). 1/ Same chart. Back in 1984, folks were euphoric. Sentiment was 92nd percentile (great) even though Misery Index was 12th (high unemployment and inflation), so a +80% perception gap. Reagan was selling, and people were buying! 2/

🧵Gun owners enjoy the benefits, but non-gun owners are forced to subsidize the $ costs in taxes for additional police, equipment, training, structures, etc., and our kids pay in fear and depression.

All of these costs should be applied to gun owners. So how can we do that? 1/ First, gun owners should pay liability insurance based on risk. Civilian young men with assault rifles would pay a lot, women with revolvers little. Private insurance companies would vet their customers, and pay a standard cost per victim should the gun be misused. 2/

🧵Banking crises have lots of terminology that can get confusing. Let's clear up a few of the basics: Bank balance sheet, leverage ratio, what banks have as assets and liabilities, and insolvency.

Main reference diagram for SVB below; I'll go through the parts. 1/ Banks have a balance sheet which shows what is owned (assets), what is owed (liabilities or debt) and the difference (equity).

By definition: Assets = Liabilities + Equity

For SVB ($ millions so add 6 zeroes):
+ 211,793 Assets
- 195,498 Liabilities
= 16,295 Equity 2/