When Russia started its full-scale invasion, it had three major resources:
1.) Huge stocks of old weapons
2.) Poor & unemployed men
3.) Super solid finances
This has allowed Putin to fight a big war while keeping most Russians in their comfort zone: Lots of guns AND butter. 1/5
All three are not limitless, and the economic consequence of that is inflation. Inflation is the result of urgently ramping up military production, pulling men from the labor market and sending them to the front, and from weakening trade and fiscal balances. 2/5
So the question for Putin is more and more: Guns OR butter? War in Ukraine OR a nice comfort zone for most Russians? That means: Should he switch to a real war economy (so far he hasn't...)? Should he do another round of mobilization? Raise taxes? 3/5
We are actually seeing all three more and more, even if the change is gradual. This means that Russians will begin to feel the price of the war. How will the Putin deal with it politically? Most likely with more of the same, more repression, more intense propaganda. 4/5
Of course Putin will not give up on his war just because his stocks of vehicles are dwindling etc. But as a result, the war will transform Russia and affect the life of all Russians in an even more profound way than it has so far. 5/5
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