Some folks are saying that Harris has reset the race to where the polling was before the debate. That's no longer true - because Harris is now polling far better than Biden did at any point in 2024 in AZ, GA, NV & NC. 🧵
In fact, in our state polling average at RacetotheWH, Kamala Harris has outright taken the polling lead in MI, NV & WI. That gives her the lead in 256 worth of electoral votes. The last time Biden had that many? Nov 1st, 2023.
So what's the takeaway? Maybe the conventional wisdom is wrong. I don't think this is a Tilt R race anymore. I feel comfortable saying that Kamala is at least narrowly favored right now.
Voters BADLY wanted a new option. We saw it in the polls, in the focus groups. I've seen it with just about every swing voter I've talked to in the last year. Now that they have one, voters are giving Harris the benefit of the doubt, and so far they like what they see.
Yes - the attacks will come and the media coverage will get harsher. We will see if she can withstand it. So far, she's showing no signs of slowing down in the swing states - even as the Trump campaign got an early start on attacking her.
I think the odds are that Harris continues to pick up support, and takes a small lead entering the convention. This is still a race both parties can win, but I think Harris now has the clearer path to 270 electoral votes.
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