Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Logan Phillips
@LoganR2WH
I track the latest polls, and forecast the Presidential, Senate and House elections at RacetotheWH. @ColumbiaSIPA Alum
Jan 3 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
I'm finishing my first forecast for the 2026 Senate cycle. Here are the five most important Senate races to watch this coming election cycle:

Dem Targets: Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska (harder lift, but on the map)
GOP: Georgia🧵 The #1 target for Democrats is Maine. Susan Collins is an electoral juggernaut, but this will be her toughest election cycle yet, especially if Governor Janet Mills runs (In 2022, Mills beat former Governor LePage 56% to 42%).
Oct 30, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Despite razor-thin national polling on the generic ballot, Congressional Democrats are polling much stronger at the district level. In 66 races with at least one non-partisan poll since June, Democrats are exceeding the district's partisan lean by an average of 3.21%. 🧵 If we tighten our criteria to races with at least two non-partisan polls—one released since September 1st—Democrats edge over the partisan lean becomes 4.94% in those 36 races.
Sep 6, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Race for the House Majority Update for FL 13 - Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs. Whitney Fox (D)

Rating Change: Likely R to Tilt R
Projection Lead: R+12.3% to R+2.5%
Chance to Win: Luna 94% to Luna 72% chance

Explanation in the next tweet.🧵 Image A week ago, FL-13 was not on my radar. The only polling we had was months out of date and only a minor factor, and the fundamentals of the race pointed to a double digit GOP victory.
Jul 31, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Some folks are saying that Harris has reset the race to where the polling was before the debate. That's no longer true - because Harris is now polling far better than Biden did at any point in 2024 in AZ, GA, NV & NC. 🧵 In fact, in our state polling average at RacetotheWH, Kamala Harris has outright taken the polling lead in MI, NV & WI. That gives her the lead in 256 worth of electoral votes. The last time Biden had that many? Nov 1st, 2023.
Apr 17, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
RacetotheWH House Forecast update - We now have our general election matchup set for the AL-2 between Shomari Figures (D) & Caroleene Dobson (R). We give Figures (D) an 81% chance at flipping the new district. We have Figures on track to lead by 10.1%. With an open race, no polling and a long time until the election, our forecast assumes there's a wider chance for a misfire in this race (hence a 19% chance of an upset despite the big projected lead).
Jan 4, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Nikki Haley is surging in New Hampshire at the perfect time. She just broke 30% and has narrowed Donald Trump's lead to single digits. 🧵 Image Haley's support has risen significantly since September. She started that month at just 5.4%. Today, she is at 31%.
Dec 7, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Jamal Bowman was censured for pulling the fire alarm. Folks, we went from six censures in 98 years to four censures in just two years. It used to be used to condemn crimes like bribery or attempted murder. Now it's just a slap on the wrist for annoying the House Majority 🧵 To showcase how silly the censure has become, here are a few examples of who the House used to censure:
In 1856, the House censured Congressman Keitt for nearly murdering Congressman Summers with a cane, after Summers spoke against expanding slavery into Kansas.
Oct 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Democrat Brandon Presley has flipped the script in Mississippi when it comes to fundraising. By the end of June, GOP Governor Tate Reeves had dominated the fundraising race - outraising him 3-1. Since then, it's been the opposite - Presley outraised Reeves 3-1. 🧵 Image This is particularly important for Presley, because of the challenging political turf of ruby-red Mississippi. A Democrat can only compete here if they have the resources to effectively stake out a unique identity separate from the national party.
May 1, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I strongly believe that Collin Allred was the best recruit Senate Dems could get - and now the Texan is taking on Ted Cruz. My Senate Forecast finds his odds of an upset are 25% - nearly double that of a generic Democrat. Right now, we don't have any polling, so expect this number to go up or down once we get some more information. Here's what we do know:
1. Allred knows how to win. He won a very tough race against Congressman Pete Sessions in 2018 in suburban Dallas.
Mar 22, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Rick Scott is fortunate that FL has shifted hard to the right since his 0.1% victory in 2018 because his net favorability rating is now the lowest of any Republican incumbent running for re-election in my polling average. My model - for what it's worth - views his 2018 win as the equivalent of an R+18% win, because it was a D+7% year, he beat a sitting incumbent (add an extra 5%), and FL has since shifted almost 7% to the right.
Mar 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Ron DeSantis has lost some ground since his midterm surge cut Trump's lead to just 5%. However, counting him out would be a foolish mistake. DeSantis's great strength is how well he projects in a head-to-head race against Trump. We've seen so many comebacks in presidential primaries. Back in 2008, Senator John McCain also started a few points behind 1st - and he slowly bled support, falling to 12% and 4th place by December.
Mar 20, 2023 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Who will run in 2024? Here's an update on every major candidate that could join the race:
1. Ron DeSantis is hitting the campaign trail to promote his book. ABC News reported DeSantis will announce he's running in May or June. 2. Mike Pence sounds more like a candidate every day. He's finding contrast points with both Trump and DeSantis and has been spending an awful lot of time in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Mar 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Folks, this isn't how the American legal system works. Not even close. Joe Biden and the national Democratic Party have no role here. Here's how an indictment actually happens in three basic steps.🧵 Step 1: The Prosecutor decides to bring charges, and convenes a grand jury.
Mar 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Folks, there's no planet where a Trump indictment alone leads to a GOP landslide. Think about it! Why would anyone that prefers Democrats decide to put their own values and interest aside to ensure Trump gets a better life. To win a landslide or even a decisive victory, the GOP likely needs to win back Romney-Biden voters that crossed parties in part because of their issues with Trump's behavior. This doesn't exactly invalidate their concerns.
Mar 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In 2020, Marianne Williamson made her campaign about love. Behind closed doors, it was a different story: "She subjected her employees to unpredictable, explosive episodes of anger...It would be foaming, spitting, uncontrollable rage" politico.com/news/2023/03/1… "Williamson would throw her phone at staffers, according to three of those former staffers. Her outbursts could be so loud that two former aides recounted at least four occasions when hotel staff knocked on her door to check on the situation"
Mar 14, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Trump's odds of winning the nomination go up with a larger field of candidates. I believe the one key exception is Chris Sununu because Sununu is willing to go on offense. In stark contrast with Haley and DeSantis, Sununu is willing to attack Trump as:
1. Unelectable - and the reason the GOP has performed poorly in three straight election cycles
2. Far too focused on the past
Mar 13, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The days of the hero presidency are far gone, and the rules of politics have changed. Political leaders are much less popular today, so we need new criteria. In the past, Presidents with a 45%+ approval rating have won re-election - and those below have lost. But does this hold today? I doubt it.
Feb 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Based on the polling, Nikki Haley had a successful launch. On January 20th, she made her intentions clear during a Fox news interview. Since then, her support has nearly doubled from 2.5% to 4.7%. We all know 4.7% is a long way from a primary victory, but she's gaining at a quick clip, and gained more ground than anyone in the last month. More importantly, she's effectively broken out of the bottom tier.
Feb 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Yes, because these Senate races are highly correlated. A victory in Montana increases the odds of a victory in Ohio. And if Dems pull off a victory in Ohio and Montana, they're unlikely to lose Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and to a lesser degree Arizona.
Feb 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
After weeks of work, I've successfully built a GOP 2024 Primary Delegate Forecast that can adapt to the unique and often very idiosyncratic rules of every state. For this stage of the race, this will be a delegate "Now-Cast" driven by state-level polling.
Feb 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Could Joe Manchin survive 2022? A new GOP poll shows the West Virginian beating two of three potential Republican opponents - leading both Alex Mooney and Patrick Morrisey by double digits.🧵 However, the same poll, by the Tarrance Group, shows Manchin trailing Governor Jim Justice by 10% - which my average adjusts to 7% after correcting for partisan bias. The poll also has Justice in 1st place in the GOP primary.