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Aug 16, 21 tweets

Why the Russian defense in Kursk Failed.
A talk about Conscripts, Defensive Works, readiness, minefields and more.
Thread🧵

On august 6th two Ukrainian Battalions crossed the border with practically no resistance, where was the Russian defense and what was it doing.

The FSB's Department of the Border Protection office "Suzhda" was in charge of protecting the border in that sector and on paper they had a very good defensive network to work with.

The defensive system had a plethora of trenches and fighting positions, covered by Anti Tank Obstacles and minefields

The Suzhda sector never had any action unlike the border in Belgorod which was guarded by actual Contract troops and as a result readiness was to the bottom and complacency had long taken over.

The area was guarded by the Russian 17th and 18th border protection Battalions which were conscript battalions created under the Russian 488th Regiment but under FSB Command.

In Russia conscripts that do their 12 month mandatory service are not allowed to go into a foreign war so instead they were put into newly created border protection battalions to at least be of some use to the war effort.

Just so we are clear on this topic the actual fighting battalions of the 488th are still in Kremmina.

Although the border was mainly manned by Conscripts there were also FSB elements in the area as well as elements from units refitting in training bases in the rear like the 200th and 1428th

Generally the 18th Battalion was a lot more disciplined than the 17th and they were actually manning their positions.
They were holding the line from Gornal to Plekhovo

The 18th Battalion was equipped with Mortars, AGS's and some RPGs which basically made them simple Light infantry capable of holding their positions.
Although talking about discipline, the 17th battalion set a very low bar and the 18th Btn had complacency inside their positions.

The 17th Battalion was barely preparing to fight a war, they were more prepared for a nice 9 month vacation to Kursk Oblast.
The entire Battalion was mainly in 2 different positions, a big nice and comfortable bunker system near Sverdlikovo and the border post near Suzhda

They were only really doing their border patrols because it was prohibited by law not to.
In 2 days the entire battalion was encircled and as good as gone.

The defenses built by General Surovikon the previous year were barely a roadblock to the Ukrainians as no one was manning them.
The AT ditches, minefields and Dragons teeth were breached without an issue at all.

Ukraine was using its most modern UAVs and EW in the area
They destroyed most Russian ISR capabilities and limited the Russian Helicopter fleet's abilities with AA FPVs

There was a great potential for a defense in this sector, but no one was manning the concrete reinforced fortifications and the Russians just got encircled in their packed positions.
The Russian 17th Battalion was destroyed and the 18th significantly damaged as it was outflanked.

As of today the Russians are calling more and more Conscripts to Kursk as they are legally allowed to use them anywhere inside Russia
We see a lot of units like the 22nd Rgt and we believe that these units got redeployed, most of the time its Conscript Btns under their command.

The Russians have been seen creating AT Ditches in their rear, usually MDK-3 vehicles from engineering battalions are used but in this case Civilian companies with government contracts are creating field fortifications and trenches using excavators.

The funny thing is that many Job adverts have appeared in Avito(an equivalent to Ebay) about the construction of trenches in Kursk

With the general arrival of Conscripts, artillery batteries and tanks, the Russian defense is only getting stronger.

Thanks for reading.

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