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Abusing Open Source
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Aug 21 22 tweets 6 min read
The Ukrainian Logistical and Engineering assets, their limitations and capabilities in Kursk
Logistical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image Logistics are a major factor in all operations and always have an effect in the outcome of an operation.
Aug 16 21 tweets 6 min read
Why the Russian defense in Kursk Failed.
A talk about Conscripts, Defensive Works, readiness, minefields and more.
Thread🧵 Image On august 6th two Ukrainian Battalions crossed the border with practically no resistance, where was the Russian defense and what was it doing.
Aug 14 8 tweets 2 min read
There won't be daily threads anymore, people who are following the situation can get what I provide pretty easily now that most of the chaos is gone but I do have some comments about the last couple days.
Quick Thread🧵 Over the last couple days reinforcements have moved into the Suzhda sector, most units of which have not been identified.
We only know that the subgroup of the 80th air assault is bigger including elements from the 82nd, 80th, 95th and 46th brigades.
Aug 13 14 tweets 4 min read
The 7th day(August 12th) of the Operation
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image Addressing some ORBAT changes first, we believe the 82nd has not been involved in fighting since Day 5
Instead the 24th Aidar Battalion is believed to have conducted the operation towards Korenevo but for now we'll leave it on the map until further information comes out.
Aug 12 14 tweets 3 min read
The 6th Day of the Kursk Incursion according to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image As Russian reserves are arriving advancing becomes significantly harder, The fighting around Martynovka has been the hardest over the last few days with the village having changed hands multiple times.
Aug 11 14 tweets 4 min read
The 5th day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image August 10th or Day 5 of the operation was a relatively quite day where both sides managed to achieve some tactical gains
Aug 10 22 tweets 6 min read
The Fourth day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image As of the 9th of August the Russian Intelligence perplexed by the situation on the first days and unable to properly identify enemy formations would start to be more efficient
Aug 9 23 tweets 6 min read
The Third day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image During such operations every minute matters and speed is of the essence. Currently Ukraine is in a race against time trying to secure their operational goals before a Russian response is possible.
Aug 8 18 tweets 6 min read
The Second day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵 Image On August 6th the Ukrainians launched a new cross-border operation inside Russia's Kursk Oblast, this time with actual UGF units equipped with western equipment
Day 1 of the operation has already been covered by me yesterday
Aug 7 15 tweets 4 min read
The Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Quick Thread🧵 Image Yesterday a Ukrainian Mixed BTG from the 82nd Air Assault brigade crossed the border into Kursk Oblast with the objective of breaching the border's minefields and destroying the weak Russian Border Guard elements there.
May 17 24 tweets 5 min read

I want to talk about this video from @MilHiVisualized and address certain things using some Velika novosilka engagements.
Thread🧵
Image First, I want to talk about ISR and staging areas.
After the Counter offensive units finished their training in late may, they got deployed into their rear staging areas around Pokrovske specifically chosen because they had Large Towns and forested areas.
1/2 Image
Mar 16 7 tweets 3 min read
My quick comment on the decision to send AASM Guided bombs to Ukraine
Thread🧵

Image the French AASMs will be a direct contributor to the Russian FAB250 with a Conversion kit for guidance.
This cheap conversion has allowed the Russians to fire 10s if not 100s of Bombs a day from 70kms away Image
Feb 10 10 tweets 3 min read
Why Ukraine should withdraw from #Avdiivka, before it gets bad.
explaining the logistics of such a situation
Thread🧵 Image Assuming we have a reinforced brigade inside this town, it would need Small Arms/Mortar ammunition Rations, Petroleum, oil, Lubricants, Water potentially medical equipment of Spare Parts, Engineers would need resources and tools in order to do their jobs etc. Image
Jan 26 11 tweets 5 min read
a little look at the Avdiivka situation just a quick thread
Thread🧵 Image during the last month the Russian after realizing their operations on the flanks had failed, started relocating and reinforcing forces towards more direct avenues to the town although this doesn't that they were interested in being stuck in heavy urban combat for months Image
Jan 18 17 tweets 5 min read
can Ukraine launch another offensive this year if yes how where and could it have Strategic Significance
Thread🧵 Image after the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 we haven't heard anything about a 2024 offensive this could either be because there is nothing planned or simply to not set any expectations to western allies and to keep it secret from the enemy Image
Dec 31, 2023 25 tweets 8 min read
Understanding the western Logistical Structure and how they influence the battlefield
Thread
Part 1 Image Logistics are probably one of the most important factors in War it can be the difference between a 2 week operation and a 3 year struggle, a Commander's understanding of his own logistical capabilities is vital in an operation of any scale Image
Oct 31, 2023 20 tweets 6 min read
why Ukraine was not able to achieve a breakthrough in their #Counteroffensive in the #Robotyne #Verbove direction the strategic implications of it and what you should expect next in this sector
[Thread]🧵 Image First of all I want to talk about the Russian defense consisting of Entrenched tree line positions the fields leading up to them being covered with minefields being covered by ATGM and AGS teams for anti Infantry and Anti armor capabilities
and with the occasional Tunnels Image
Oct 28, 2023 22 tweets 8 min read
Now with the Infiltrations around #Pidstepne, #Poima and #Krinky it looks more and more likely that Ukraine will launch an offensive in the #Kherson Region across the #Dnipro river
Detailed Analysis Thread🧵 Image First of all I think we should talk about the Dnieper grouping and what it consists of as it is a lot worse quality than it looks like in my map you will see a lot of motorized icons
1/2 Image
Aug 25, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
(Part 2)
Let's talk about what Happened during the first days of the #counteroffensive in the #Verbove and #Robotyne Area in detail
Its split into 2 threads because I can't put over 25 tweets in a thread, this is Part 2
[Thread] 1/

Image After the failed assault on the eastern side the remaining vehicle relocated to the western side of the treeline
the 46ths convoy hadn't formed up yet
and the 33RD m113s went in alone and got entirely destroyed by artillery
2/
Image
Image
Aug 25, 2023 26 tweets 12 min read
(Part 1)
Let's talk about what Happened during the first days of the #counteroffensive in the #Verbove and #Robotyne Area in detail
Its split into 2 threads because I can't put over 25 tweets in a thread, this is Part 1
[Thread] 1/ Image There were a lot of convoys that pushed from 5 different brigades
3 Convoys from the 47th mechanized brigade
2 of the 33rd
1 46th
1 from an Unknown unit
and 1 smaller 1 of the 118th
2/ Image
Aug 23, 2023 14 tweets 7 min read
Current situation in #Robotyne
I'm waiting for the village to be re-captured to talk about how the liberation of the settlement happened in detail today I'll be talking about what happened on the eastern Flank during the month of August Image At the start of August the eastern flank was still recovering from the attacks that happened on late July
Ukraine did not manage to secure any ground but the Russians did not re-enter their lost positions creating a big grey zone
Image
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