Thread by @LovelyLad_

The Ukrainian Logistical and Engineering assets, their limitations and capabilities in Kursk
Logistical Analysis
Thread🧵

Logistics are a major factor in all operations and always have an effect in the outcome of an operation.

Certain units have been independently confirmed to be deployed but there are other units that work in the rear that wouldn't get many MIAs but still would most definitely be deployed in support of the Operation.

We will assume that 80% of the logistical units from OK North are deployed in Kursk which is a reasonable assumption.
These are the units we have to our map:
The 181st and 226th Logistics Battalions
The 170th Logistics Regiment
The 808th Support brigade

The Ukrainians in preparation for the offensive used the Forests north of Sumy to conceal their concentrations of troops and supplies.
Said Supply Dumps are the main Bases for the Ukrainian CSS units.

The Ukrainian 50th Maintenance Regiment can easily and safely repair vehicles in there without the fear of being spotted and destroyed.

As for the Ukrainian Engineering units we know that elements of the 48th Engineering brigade operate in Kursk using Wisent 1 Demining vehicles, UR77s/MICLICs which mostly got attached to frontline units and BREM-1 ARVs.

The 12th regiment of OK North is most likely also sitting somewhere in reserve with some elements of it being attached to frontline units like their IMR2s.

The engineers are not only in charge of Demining and Vehicle recovery they can also setup mockups of equipment and they use their bridging Battalions to setup pontoons over rivers of which they have two of in the immediate area

Ukraine being a post soviet country and lacking trucks especially in OK North is heavily reliant on Rail for its logistics.
In Kursk though, Ukraine is forced to utilize trucks for its logistics as they haven't secured any railway stations.

Ukraine had around 400 Normal transport vehicles in its Logistics battalions with a number of them being pickup trucks or something similar.

Theoretically with 10-15 combat battalions the Ukrainian Logistics could reach up to Lgov but there are also around 10 artillery battalions in support.
For 4 BM21 Battalions to fire once 48 truckloads would be needed to replenish their ammunition.

Ukraine is also using regular trucks for water transportation due to the lack of specialized trucks which in order to supply the troops on the ground would require around 60,000 kilos of cargo every day

Rations, Small Arms ammunition, rockets, spare parts, grenades, resources for the Field Kitchens, Special deliveries(Soap, Coffee etc)
Imagine how many trucks would be needed, of course during the first 40kms the Trucks would be able to make multiple deliveries a day
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After that though the situation would get rough as trucks would only be able to deliver a few truckloads a day.
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Ukraine prior to the operation lacked fuel tankers they tried to fix the problem through the usage of civilian tankers and managed to have around 150 of them for the operation.

150 Tankers could carry up to 1,000,000 Liters of fuel which is enough for resupplying the force once.
Around 600,000 Liters are needed to resupply the 15 Maneuver Battalions and then another 300,000 are needed for the trucks/pickups themselves.
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This is not taking into account Air defense and certain other elements as it is very hard to calculate but you can probably add another 100,000 to the mix
This would bring the total to 1,000,000 but not all trucks are available at the same time and transport time is also a factor

Ukraine could reach Lgov but they could not hold it as reinforcements would be needed and the reality is that they could simply not supply them.

Tactical Pipelines if Ukraine is even utilizing them take multiple days to setup and even with them up maneuvering would be difficult.

Ukraine now has around 30 Btn's deployed which do not put an ease to their logistics.
This is definitely one of the main reasons we've seen the front become static and Ukraine at this point can only bet on securing the Railways in Korenevo and its surroundings to continue the Op.

Thank you for reading.
I try to put as much effort as I can into the creation of my threads and I want to thank the people that assisted in the creation of this one.